Thursday, December 30, 2004

The Fox and the Hen House

How would you like to be overseeing your competitor’s development project? It’s a sweet job if you can get it. But that’s what is now happening with many Pentagon contracts. For example, Northrop Grumman, one of the few remaining monolithic defense contractors, was assigned the task of overseeing the efforts of Space Exploration Technologies to develop a new rocket. Of course, Northrop did not cease working on its own rocket projects.

Yes, Northrop is a huge company that operates in many areas. And, it’s possible that they would have assigned members of their non-rocket operations to this project. Such an assignment would have at least two problems: would the Northrop people know enough to oversee the project; whether they did or not would they have been tempted to pass information back to Northrop’s rocketeers.

But, that is not what Northrop did. They assigned people from their rocket and non-rocket operations to monitor Space Exploration’s activities.

In all fairness, the Pentagon is in a bind as the many mergers in the defense industry have narrowed their options. Plus, a large portion of the defense budget is not going to increasing the number of civilian scientists at the Pentagon. They are aware of the problem and are trying to resolve it. In the meantime, be happy that you’re not in the defense business.

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

How do you define 'discount'?

If you’re a normally intelligent human being, you would expect to pay less when you use a ‘discount’ card. Right? Not if you use the TogetherRx prescription drug card.

I tried to use this card to reorder a prescription of mine. The per pill cost after the ‘discount’ was 72 cents, and I could only order 34. The per pill cost without the discount was 72 cents, and I could order 90.

We’re getting closer and closer to Orwell’s 1984 where words have no meaning.

Wednesday, December 22, 2004

A trillion here, a trillion there

Forty or so years ago Senator Everett Dirksen said, “A billion here. A billion there. And pretty soon it adds up to real money.” Today, we’re talking trillions and, if we continue ignoring reality and refusing to deal with our problems, tomorrow we’ll be talking quadrillions.

The latest GAO estimate as to what we would have to put away today to pay the cost of the Medicare prescription drug benefit alone is $8.119 trillion. The Comptroller General, David Walker, called this “one of the largest unfunded liabilities undertaken by the federal government”. It’s good that Bush is focusing on Social Security, but the costs of Medicare are now twice as large as those of Social Security. Both programs have to be fixed.

The annual financial statements of the federal government show your individual gross government debt at $25,000, whether you are one month or 100 years old. When you add in all our unfunded liabilities and commitments, such as SSA and Medicare, your individual debt climbs to $145,000. That is, every kid born today in this country starts out being $145,000 in the hole.

Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Light is coming

The first day of Winter. We exchange cold and snowy weather for more sunlight. Yes, it doesn’t seem that way in the dark days of February. But, like much of life, appearances can be deceiving. Keep the faith. More light will be here soon – at least in the physical sense.

Sunday, December 19, 2004

I'd like to join Bush in LaLa Land

Yesterday’s radio address by President Bush was a classic case of Peterson’s claim that our politicians are more interested in rhetoric than reason when speaking of our nation’s problems.

Here’s what Bush said about solving the Social Security problem:

“As we reform and strengthen the system we will deliver all the benefits owed to current and near retirees. We must not increase payroll taxes. And we must tap into the power of markets and compound interest by giving younger workers the option of saving some of their payroll taxes in a personal investment account, a nest egg they call their own, which the government can never take away.” (My emphasis)

The phrase, “no gain, no pain” is not in the president’s lexicon. We can have everything today if only we forget about tomorrow. I wonder how Bush runs his private finances. Of course, he’s one of the lucky ones to have been born into great wealth and power so he doesn’t have to worry about the financial future of his kids. He clearly is not worrying about the financial future of this country.

Saturday, December 18, 2004

Running On Empty

Pete Peterson’s latest book, “Running on Empty”, will scare the hell out of you if you believe that tomorrow will automatically be better than today. On the other hand, if you want to read a sober, clear-headed analysis of how we got here and how we can perhaps get out of this mess, this is the book for you.

Peterson argues that we are on the road to bankruptcy. The numbers are staggering. If we do nothing, eventually the entire federal budget would have to be devoted to entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security.

We have become a nation that has allowed our politicians to bring us to this point. The political class is more interested in winning the next election than in trying to solve our problems. Each side demonizes the other, convinced that all wisdom, truth and justice lies on its side. Neither side is willing to ask us to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow for us and our kids and grandkids. Peterson urges us to take up President Kennedy’s challenge: “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.” And what we can do for our country, Peterson says, is take back our government so that it serves our needs today while ensuring that it will serve our and our kids’ and grandkids’ needs tomorrow.

Peterson, a Republican who has served in government, takes both Republicans and Democrats to task; Republicans largely because of their mania for cutting taxes no matter what needs go unmet, Democrats for expanding entitlements no matter what they cost today or tomorrow. And, he attributes a fair amount of our difficulties with each party to the gerrymandering that practically ensures the re-election of incumbent Congressmen.

You’ve probably read about Bush’s commitment to reform Social Security by allowing people to establish investment accounts with part of their payroll taxes. Since Social Security benefits are paid from the payroll taxes collected today, switching some of these taxes into an investment account means that the benefits that would have been paid by these missing taxes will have to be found elsewhere. Bush proposes to borrow the money for it; some estimates are that we would have to borrow a trillion dollars.

Peterson’s proposal for Social Security is more nuanced:

  • he wants to index benefits to prices rather than wages as they are done now.
  • he, an investment banker, believes in investing for one’s future but he wants the investment to be mandatory as it is in other countries such as Singapore, Chile and Australia.
  • for those who are unable to contribute to the preceding investment accounts, the government should do so.

The deficits generated by Medicare dwarf those of Social Security; they’re about three times as much. And, the recent prescription benefit does not make the numbers smaller. Here, Peterson is on shakier ground in suggesting changes. He advocates:

  • managed competition such as that provided to federal employees.
  • promote higher deductibles and co-payments.
  • determine which treatments work and which don’t.
  • reduce litigation costs by instituting malpractice reform.
  • promote public health.
  • provide insurance for those currently uninsured.
  • eliminate the tax deductibility of employer-paid coverage.
  • introduce global budgetary caps.

How we keep the books is one of the themes of Peterson’s thesis. The government does an extremely poor job in producing financial records that can be understood by most people or that help it to actually manage. Peterson points out time and again that Congress should apply to the federal government the same rules and regulations (such as Sarbanes-Oxley) that it enacts into law for everybody else.

My limited experience with municipal budgets reinforces Peterson’s claim that the budget process of the largest financial entity in the world stinks. Most people cannot understand the government’s finances. We budget on a short term, not long term basis. We keep the books on a cash, not accrual, basis. It’s as though the feds operate in the dark ages.

But nothing will happen unless we reform our nation’s politics and parties starting with restoring the electoral process by eliminating gerrymandering thus giving people a decent hope of defeating an incumbent.

We own the airwaves. Why can’t television and radio stations be made to give time to qualified candidates since the stations are using our airwaves? This would reduce the massive amounts of money needed to conduct an election in the twenty-first century.

Remember the civics classes we had when we, the older generation, were kids? We learned how our government was supposed to run and what our duties as citizens were. Have our kids or grandkids taken such a class? Would it not make sense to try to educate them about their roles as citizens? As John Quincy Adams, President and Congressman, said when asked what he felt was his most important job, it is that of CITIZEN.

Thursday, December 16, 2004

Somewhere over the rainbow

A quote by President Bush from yesterday’s press conference with Silvio Berlusconi: “There's a trade deficit. That's easy to resolve; people can buy more United States products if they're worried about the trade deficit.”

But, the question is why are people not buying more US products? It’s become a different economic world and, instead of trying to understand why we have a trade deficit, the President tosses it off as being something easy to resolve. If it were so easy, why will we import more food than we export this year? Why is Brazil the leading exporter of beef? Why do we compete with Russian wheat growers when a few years ago we were supplying wheat to Russia to avert a famine? How many Japanese cars are among the top sellers in this country? If it were so easy to resolve the trade deficit, why hasn’t it been done?

The President mentioned our two other deficits: short term and long term. He said zero about the short term deficit although, if the first two months of the year are indicative of the whole year, we’ll wind up with a short term deficit 50% higher than the record we set last year. He’ll fix the long term deficit by privatizing social security. What about Medicare, which may be in worse trouble than social security?

Was it Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz who said, “I wish I may. I wish I may,,,,, I wish I may.”? It’s too bad that we’re not in a fictitious Kansas any more.

A Little Better Sign

A week later, another class, and another international math and science test given worldwide (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Survey, Timss). Last week I reported (the post entitled “Not a Good Sign”) on the poor results of 15 year-olds in a similar test (administered by the OECD). This week’s results were somewhat better.

The test was given to fourth and eighth graders. The eighth graders did better than the fourth graders. They rose to 12th from 17th in math and from 14th to 7th in science. However, their actual math scores did not improve from the last time the test was given; their science scores increased quite a bit. The fourth graders went from 6th to 8th in math and from 2nd to 6th in science. Their math scores stayed the same; their science scores decreased.

Educators are finally getting concerned as the test results become better known as they do not bode well for our future. As I’ve said many times, recognizing a problem is the first step in solving it.

Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Really goof and you'll get a really big medal

Another case of refusing to acknowledge reality occurred yesterday when President Bush award the Presidential Medal of Freedom, our nation's highest civilian award which is given to men and women of exceptional merit, integrity and achievement, to Paul Bremer, Tommy Franks and George Tenet.

I’m sure that the three of them are pretty smart and have gone far in their careers. However, they each made very major errors relative to Iraq. Bremer acknowledged one of his a few months ago: he did not ask for more troops. However, he did not acknowledge his wrong decision to disband the Iraqi army. Franks said we’d be able to really lower our troop commitment in the summer of 2003. Tell that to the kids being called up today. Tenet was convinced that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

Despite these singularly inept achievements, they were given our nation’s highest civilian award for achievement. Remember Orwell: War is Peace.

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

AAA

In addition to the same first letter, what do these words have in common: agriculture, automobile and airplane? You win the cigar if you said that they are all fields in which the US was number one within the lifetime of most of us and is now no longer.

As you saw from my last post, Brazil is now the leader in many agricultural areas. Russia competes with us in the world wheat market; it was not many years ago that we were shipping wheat to Russia to prevent famine. McDonalds buys 10% or more of its food from Australia. Vietnam is a major shrimp dealer.

Like many Americans, I could not conceive of buying a Toyota when they first landed here. An Alfa Romeo, maybe. But a Japanese car? Never. Now, forty or so years later, Toyota is number 1 in the world and most of the other Japanese car makers hold slots in the top 10. It’s not only Japan; Chrysler is owned by Daimler-Benz. Fifty years ago, Charles Wilson, the head of GM, made headlines around the world when he declared, “What’s good for GM is good for America.” When was the last time you considered GM a truly major international force?

Remember McDonnell Douglas, Lockheed, Grumman, Northrop, Boeing? Who among them actually makes planes today? Yea, how many of these companies remain as independent entities? Boeing is having a hard time competing with Airbus, a firm that almost did not make it past its infancy. Now, they share the market with an American icon.

I’m not mouthing off here just to be negative about this country. I’m really asking us to look at the world with clear eyes and see it for what it is. We are inventive and ingenious enough to have solved many of the problems we have faced. But, our solution has always came after we realized that there was a problem.

Nor am I saying that we have to be #1 in everything. However, instead of mouthing off about how great we are and thinking we are the envy of the world, we should acknowledge the reality that exists today. Only by doing so can we decide whether it is worthwhile to try to change that reality.

Monday, December 13, 2004

Let's talk agriculture

This piece is a follow-up to my commentary on “Emerging Economies: Good or Bad” of November 10.

What country is the world’s largest exporter of beef, chicken, orange juice, sugar and tobacco? Think again. It’s not the United States. It’s Brazil!

Whose agricultural productivity is higher: United States, Europe or Brazil? You know the answer now: Brazil.

They’re doing it with technology that has enabled them to make what twenty five years ago was considered poor tropical and savanna soil fruitful. They produce “two crops a year yielding three tons of grain an acre”, according to one of the leading farmers; and that is something that can be done nowhere else on earth.

Brazil is larger than the continental US and its grain belt is larger than ours. And it seems that their government is doing more than ours to improve their position as a leading agricultural exporter. For example, the technology mentioned above was developed by a state agency, the Brazilian Enterprise for Agricultural and Livestock Research. We countered this threat by increasing the subsidies to our farmers, most of whom, by now, are no longer the family farmers of yore but are major corporations.

The world is changing rapidly. There are fewer developing nations today than ever. But we seem not to be aware of this. We are convinced that we are #1 in almost everything, but seem unwilling to put in the effort to ensure that our beliefs become reality.

I wonder if the Romans and other empires felt and acted the same as we are doing today.

Saturday, December 11, 2004

Show Me The Evidence

Friday’s Wall Street Journal had two interesting articles. The Science Journal column raised the question of whether we really know how schoolchildren learn. The second, a review of Michael Crichton’s new book, State of Fear, raised the question of scientific proof. Are these articles touting the Journal’s conservative philosophy or is there a nugget of truth there? Do we really know as much as we think we do? That’s been a basic question of man since time immemorial. We think that Science can give us the answers. But, is this more a wish than a reality?

Sharon Begley in the Science Column used an experiment with only 112 third-graders to see whether they learned better by “discovery learning” (the kids solve the problem largely on their own) or “direct instruction” (the teacher gives explicit instructions as to what to do to solve the problem and explains what is going on). As you’d expect, the kids instructed directly gave better results: more kids solved the problem. Furthermore, the idea that discovery learning gives students a deeper, more enduring knowledge did not seem to hold up.

Of course, the sample is minuscule, but the issue it raises has deep societal implications. What proof is there for either claim? Where is the evidence? This whole question of today’s education is one that troubles a friend of mine. She notes the high cost of education, particularly on this island; but education is costly everywhere in the country. Then, she asks whether the ‘output’ is any better than it was 20 or 40 or 60 years ago. Of course, she has a hard time defining ‘output’ in any measurable sense.

Crichton argues that the environmental movement is, at heart, a religion. And, as such, it is based on faith, not facts. Crichton is by no means a stupid guy. The book is an outgrowth of a speech he gave to San Francisco’s Commonwealth Club, so the book probably represents his thoughts, rather than just an attempt to make money. We’ve all heard that the Greenland ice cap will be melting because of rising temperatures. Well, the review claims that it is scientifically established that the temperature in Greenland has fallen 2.2 degrees C. per decade since 1987. Another scientist claims the sea level is falling not rising in the Indian Ocean. The World Conservation Union - whatever that is and wherever they get their funds from – found that since 1600 only about 1000 species of animals, insects and plants combined have vanished.

This is just another example that in science, as with most of life, you’re really on your own. There is no one out there with the answers. You have to figure out your own.

Going For A New Record?

The federal deficit in the first two months of this fiscal year is expected to be around $109 billion. That puts us on track for an annual deficit of $654 billion. or almost 50% more than the $413 billion record of last fiscal year. And, the administration is still thinking (if you want to call it that) of more tax cuts???
Does this make sense to you?

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

Not a Good Sign

In Friedman’s article that I talked about on Sunday (Bush and Energy Independence) he spoke of achieving the goal of energy independence through a program of the National Science Foundation. Presumably, the scientists implementing the program will be as capable as those who got us to the moon thirty-five years ago. However, an article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal does not fill one with a great deal of confidence that we could achieve the goal even if Bush proclaimed it.

The reason for my trepidation is a survey of fifteen-year olds in industrialized countries conducted by the OECD. It shows the US as ranking 24th out of 29 countries surveyed relative to math skills. In problem-solving skills we scored close to the bottom. In science we scored less than average. On average, 4% of the test takers scored in the top ranges; in the US only 2% did so. In a different survey, 17% of students at public four-year colleges need remedial math courses.

Not a good sign for energy independence or a leading economy.

Wonders Never Cease

Lately, I’ve come across two surprising divisions within the Department of Defense: Defense Science Board and Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. I’ve been surprised because the reports I’ve read seem to be quite clear-eyed about the world we face.

The Defense Science Board (
http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/) issued the “Strategic Communications” report that has been in the news recently.

I’ve just subscribed to the monthly newsletter of The Strategic Studies Institute (http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/) and am intrigued by the titles (and abstracts) of some of their

Publications:

Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future: Lessons for the Insurgencies in Our Midst

Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century: Re-conceptualizing Threat and Response

Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice

Islamic Rulings on Warfare

Current and Future Challenges for Asian Nonproliferation Export Controls: A Regional Response

Civil-Military Cooperation in Peace Operations: The Case of Kosovo

Research:

Politics and the National Guard

The Information Element of National Power; Clarity at Last?

Conferences:

Beyond the U.S. War on Terrorism: Comparing Domestic Legal Remedies to an International Dilemma

The Rise and Fall of Empires

Building Regional Security in the Western Hemisphere

You wonder whether the higher-ups in DOD pay any attention to what their underlings are doing. If they did, maybe things would be better.

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

"Get rid of it"

That's what Dick Gephardt says of the Electoral College in last Sunday's NY Times magazine. To continue: "You basically had an election in seven or eight states, not the whole country. And I don't think that's healthy."

Sign the petition to eliminate the Electoral College at www.fairvote.org. Do it now.

Memories of the Big War

Do you know where you were at about 7 p.m. sixty-three years ago today? I certainly do. December 7 always triggers memories of my youth, a youth where war and the likelihood of war were constantly in most people’s minds. And now it seems that, in my dotage, war and the likelihood of war is becoming a constant again.

But, let me tell you of the last good war. I say ‘good’ because it was the last war where we, the United States of America, were truly united because, I believe, we were correct in believing and doing the right thing, the just thing and (although many will disagree) the moral thing.

The last good war, World War II, was a totally different war than just about all we have fought since, including the one against terrorism that we are fighting today. First of all, everyone knew in their innermost selves that we were at war – and knew it virtually every waking moment. There was no way to avoid it; the newspapers, magazines, radio, movies were full of it (think of CNN on steroids). We all had ration books and, most importantly, we all had brothers, uncles or cousins who were in the armed forces.

For a kid physically removed from any possible danger the war was an exciting time. The movies were filled with gallant Americans fighting the dirty enemy. “The FBI in Peace and War” and similar radio programs warned us constantly of the chicanery of the enemy. Posters, such as the famous “Loose lips sink ships” one, appeared in many public and private places. Thoughts of death and mutilation were far from my mind until the big brothers of the kids down the street came home damaged or dead. And even then the excitement remained. They were not family. I was not close to them.

Even the newspapers were exciting: the huge headlines, the maps of places with exotic names, photos and stories of the heroes in combat. My reading skills and knowledge of geography improved considerably during the war.

The war was central to my growing up and had significant impact on my family. I was almost five years old when we entered WWII. And, in some ways - since it is the first memory I can recall – it was the beginning of recorded time for me. It was a Sunday night around 7. The kitchen had not yet been divided in two; it was still a very big room. I was playing on the floor. The radio was tuned to the news as it always was when Aunt Jennie visited. Then, the interruption – the Japanese have bombed Pearl Harbor. As with the 9/11 actions, America was stunned. They had attacked us directly. True, it was not the mainland and Hawaii was not yet a state; but they had destroyed American ships and killed Americans. As with 9/11, we should not have been surprised. In fact, the Pearl Harbor attack should have been less of a surprise since the war had been going on in the rest of the world for more than two years. But, then as now, we found it hard to accept that we have enemies, real, flesh-and-blood people who hate us.

Despite our being 3000 miles from the front, the war became our life. It was our constant companion. It so captured America’s imagination, thoughts, fears and dreams that even kids did their bit to help. It united America as little has since.

Some background

I don’t want to delve into politics too much but some background is necessary. Although my mother was born in the States, we were very much a first generation Italian immigrant family. My father had come here in 1912, my mother spent some of her youth in Italy. While there was a strong love of Italy and things Italian, the primary drive for them and their children was toward assimilation. English was the language they used most of the time; however, Italian dialect was also spoken often around the house. My father’s mother, brother and sister remained in Italy, so there were family ties to the homeland as well. Nonetheless, being a US citizen was the sine qua non of those days for an immigrant. My father served in the army in the first war and during the second he was on the draft board and was an air raid warden.

Since Italy was now one of the enemy, my parents and other Italian-Americans were in a difficult spot. Their children were fighting Italians, their blood brothers. Other Americans were skeptical of the loyalty of Italians. During Mussolini’s rise, he was praised by many Italian-Americans, my family included. In fact, for many years there in the living room was a photograph of my brother, Eddie, dressed in the uniform of the Fascist youth; it was taken while he was a guest of the Italian government for a month in the 1930’s.

Although my mother came from a family of seven girls, we were closest to Aunt Jennie, her sister, and Uncle Musty, my father’s brother. Both Jennie and Musty were strong personalities. I don’t know whether they were always politically conservative or not, but during the war they were definitely anti-Roosevelt. My aunt’s hatred of Roosevelt stemmed from a campaign promise he had made in 1940: “Mothers, your sons will not go to war”. When young men, her son included, began to be drafted, she went ballistic. While my parents may have disagreed with her, they did not often voice it as she was the older sister and quite powerful in her beliefs, which she shared with us almost every evening as she listened to Fulton J. Lewis, an arch-conservative, read and comment on the news.

The economy

Today, Bush cuts taxes and urges us to go out and spend as a way to beat the enemy. This approach was totally opposite to what happened in the war years. We couldn’t buy many things without a book of ration coupons. Getting a new book of coupons was like getting a pay check. When we went to the grocery store, we took along our ration books. When my father bought gas for his car, he needed his ration book. Of course, new cars were not seen, as the production of all the car companies went for military purposes. The names of airplanes were as well known then as the names of cars today – Flying Fortress, P-47, Stuka, Spitfire, Zero; I can still see them in my mind. Miniature planes came along with your box of cereal.

Price controls were also in effect. Our wartime economy was a government-run economy. And, it really had to be as the economies of our allies were in shambles and this war really had the potential to destroy Western Civilization.

Air Raid Drills and other wartime activity

What could be more exciting to a little kid than an air raid drill? The sirens blaring, the closing of the curtains, the dowsing of the lights. But, maybe because you were a kid you knew it was only a drill. It couldn’t be real; the Krauts and the Japs were very far away. Yet, when the horns blew, my father, who was an air raid warden, put on his helmet, picked up his flashlight and went out to check that there were no lights shining from any homes or businesses in the neighborhood. We, of course, shut all the lights, drew the curtains and then peeked out to see whether anyone had their lights on.

The only way to communicate with the troops was via the mail. (Unless of course, your son was wounded or killed; in that case you’d get a telegram.) So, my mother would write letters to her sons and, for some reason, she felt that I should do so also. My sisters were exempt from this task, but I was not. It was a real pain for me as I had no idea what to write and would be frustrated by my inability to do so.

After Italy fell, my parents were able to send packages to my father’s family. Perhaps once a month my mother would create these huge care packages filled with the basics. She would sew them up in heavy cotton and my father would lug them to the post office after filling out the appropriate forms.

We spent days rolling the aluminum foil in which gum sticks were wrapped into a giant ball. Where this ball went I know not, but it was a patriotic thing to do. As it was patriotic for the females to knit sweaters and assemble bandages.

Daily entertainment was largely over the radio; periodically, we would go to the local movie house when they were giving out free dishes. Movies then were accompanied by newsreels which largely reported the US view of the war. Even movie stars were dragooned into the war. Some saw combat, many sold war bonds. Contrast that with today’s volunteer army.

While before the war kids played “cops and robbers”, we, the kids of the early ‘40s, played war games. There was no escaping the real world, not even in play.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Even now, almost sixty years later, I find it hard to comprehend the power of the atom bombs we dropped on Japan. (And those bombs were tiny compared to today’s generation!) At that time we really didn’t get a complete picture of how horrific the damage was, or at least I didn’t. The strong impression drilled into my Catholic mind was that the second bomb was dropped on Nagasaki, a Catholic city. The nuns saw it as another attempt to persecute Catholics and drilled it into our heads. They ignored the catastrophic effect of the bomb, as did most of America. We were just happy that the war was finally ending.

VJ Day

VJ Day was the day the Japanese surrendered. It so happened to also be the Feast of the Assumption (a fact noted by the religious among us). My sisters, cousins and I spent the day cutting up newspapers which we threw from the window when the formal announcement was made. The whole country was a bedlam. Even Cambridge Street was crowded unlike any other time before or since. You could cross the street only with great difficulty and with a degree of risk. Drivers and others were drunk. I can still see the guy down the street playing the bagpipe. The blaring of car horns was constant. It was an unbelievable day across the country.

Back to “normalcy”

The return to the life we led before the war never happened. The Cold War began virtually immediately. In many ways this was even scarier than the hot war that had just ended. But, that is the subject of another day.

Monday, December 06, 2004

The Devil Made Me Do It

1948 really was another century, particularly if you were a kid on his first trip to Italy. Italy after the war was a totally different country than mine. Not only were the ravages of war all around you, to a child raised in Cambridge, Italy was still very “old world”. Italy had yet to join our so-called modern world. I suppose that’s why I got one of the scares of my life.

It happened in Assisi, the home of St. Francis. It was a stop on our “grand tour” of Italy. My mother was deeply religious; we saw every famous church in Italy. Since my cousin was a Franciscan as were our parish priests, she had a special affection for everything Franciscan. Assisi had to be a highlight of the tour for her. We rose early that morning to attend the first Mass, for, after Mass, there was a special tour of the cathedral that my cousin had arranged.

The first part of the tour was, to my by now jaded sensibilities, not very exciting; we saw the typical tourist things. But, then, the tour moved to the cellar. Now, you should know that I attended Catholic school, a fairly conservative one where the devil was a constant “presence” (so the nuns told us). Plus, I had been scared out of my wits, just before we left on vacation, when I attended the play, “Pilate’s Daughter”, in which possession by the devil figures prominently.

The cellar was ill-lit, but you could see prison cells. I originally thought they were empty, but one was not. In it was a girl a few years older than I. She was on the bed. A priest was standing, praying from a missal in a fairly loud voice. At first, I thought the girl was physically ill, but it soon became clear she was not, for, as we learned from our guide, the girl was possessed by the devil. We were witnessing an exorcism. Now, it’s true that I could not see the devil, but I was an impressionable kid and was certain that he was there in that cell.

When I was older, I realized, of course, that the girl was emotionally ill. Yet, even now, fifty-six years later, I sometimes wonder whether the devil could have been in that cell and might be coming after me.

Sunday, December 05, 2004

On War

To read a powerful essay by Chris Hedges click here

Bush for Energy Independence

Tom Friedman had an interesting column in today’s New York Times. He urges Bush to set a goal of energy independence in ten years. Not an earth-shattering idea, I know, but he links it to regime change or at least regime softening by recounting the dramatic changes that occurred around the world in the late ‘80s and ‘90s.

In that period Russia gave up the ghost, Israel and Palestine seemed to be talking to each other at Oslo, Iran began its reform, economic reform was bruited about in the Arab world. And why? Oil prices collapsed. In November 1985 the price was $30 a barrel; nine months later it was down to $10. In the face of this declining oil revenue many nasty regimes started to actually relax their grip on their people. Would Saudi Arabia become a gentler, kinder nation if oil were $25, and not $50, a barrel? Would they and other nations still be able to finance the terrorists? Would Iran be less obstreperous? Would Russia let the Ukraine decide its own fate completely? If “money makes the world go round”, there is a possibility that Friedman could be right.

But, Friedman paraphrases Michael Mandelbaum of Johns Hopkins, if we became truly energy independent, there would be other significant benefits: a stronger dollar, perhaps reduced global warming and a higher regard around the world for Bush and us.

It’s important to note that Friedman is not talking only of conservation. He’s also plumping for alternative energy sources. It’s not an easy task, especially when we have heard word zero about conservation in the past four years. But, if Nixon, the a nti-communist, went to China, maybe Bush, the former oilman, can be the president known for reducing our dependence on oil.

Monday, November 29, 2004

Do you read the reports of the DOD, Donald?


The Defense Science Board was established as an arm of the Defense Department in 1956. Its role is to investigate how science may help in developing radical new weapons system. I suspect that they interpret their role broadly as in October they published a report entitled “Strategic Communications”. Here are some excerpts from that report (http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2004-09-Strategic_Communication.pdf).

“the United States is engaged in a generational and global struggle about ideas, not a war between the West and Islam.”

A new approach to strategic communication “will build on in-depth knowledge of other cultures and factors that motivate human behavior. …..it avoids slogans, quick fixes and mind sets of winners and losers…..it begins with listening….it makes informed decisions”

“Policies will not succeed unless they are communicated to global and domestic audiences in ways that are credible and allow them to make informed, independent judgments.”

“messages should seek to reduce, not increase, perceptions of arrogance, optimism and double standards.”

“There is consensus …that U.S. public diplomacy is in crisis. Missing are strong leadership, strategic direction, adequate coordination, sufficient resources and a culture of measurement and evaluation. America’s image problem, many suggest, is linked to perceptions of the United States as arrogant, hypocritical and self-indulgent.”

“The focus is more on capturing and killing terrorists than attitudinal, political and economic forces that are the underlying source of threats and opportunities in national security.”

“Islam’s crisis must be understood as a contest of ideas and engaged accordingly.”

“Americans have inserted themselves into this intra-Islamic struggle in way that have made us and enemy of most Muslims.”

“There is no yearning-to-be-liberated-by-the-U.S. groundswell among Muslim societies.”

“The U.S. urgently needs to think in terms of promoting actual positive change.”

“the perception of intimate U.S. support of tyrannies in the Muslim World is perhaps the critical vulnerability in American strategy. It strongly undercuts our message, while strongly promoting that of the enemy.”

“American direct intervention in the Muslim World has paradoxically elevated the stature of and support for radical, while diminishing support for the United States to single-digits in some Arab societies.”

“Muslims do not “hate our freedom”, but, rather, they hate our policies.”

“Thus when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy.”

“in the eyes of Muslims, American occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq has not led to democracy there, but only more chaos and suffering.”

“American actions and the flow of events have elevated the authority of the Jihadi insurgents and tended to ratify their legitimacy among Muslims.”

“Thus the critical problem in American public diplomacy…..is a fundamental problem of credibility. Simply out, there is none.”

“Arguably the first step toward mitigating and eventually reversing this situation is to better understand the values and worldviews of the target audience itself.”

“Muslims see American policies as inimical to their values, American rhetoric about freedom and democracy as hypocritical and American actions as deeply threatening.”


Someone wants me dead

As I write this, someone – it may be you, reader – wants me dead. Although he has never met me nor seen me or even my photograph, he is convinced that the world would be a better place if I were no longer in it, for I am another one of those people who has not accepted his god or his view of his god. And, I have been lucky enough to have been born and live in an environment where there is opportunity to realize whatever potential I may have.

Of the many who would prefer that I and other infidels were dead, only a very few would actually try to kill me. Yet, it only takes one dedicated person to kill me and, if he or she so desired, thousands with me. My killer may live down the street or 5,000 miles away. He may be a Muslim, a Jew, a Christian, a Sikh, a Hindu, or any of the thousands of religions that dot the planet. He (or she) is buoyed by those who acquiesce in my murder but lack the “courage” to do the deed.

In almost all cases I am relying on my society to do what it can to see that I live my allotted years. But, my expectations vary with the level of society. One expectation that I do not have is that we will turn the other cheek; sad to say, in some circumstances violence is necessary.

If my killer lives next door, I must rely on my powers of persuasion and those of my neighbors and, if they fail, my waning physical abilities as it’s doubtful that the local police could respond in time. If my killer lives in or comes to Massachusetts, I must rely more on the resources of the state in identifying potential killers and in encouraging tolerance and understanding of one’s fellow citizens. If my killer lives in another country, I must rely on the resources, intelligence and ‘smarts’ of the federal government. At this level I feel less secure than at the state or personal level. We have the resources. We have, but need to improve, our intelligence. We have lacked the ‘smarts’ because we are convinced that we are always right and the others are always wrong.

The federal government has to realize that the ‘war on terror’ is more than a military one. It is a battle for people’s hearts and minds. We have to begin to make our words into deeds. We need to understand why we have become the enemy for so many of our fellow residents of this planet. With this knowledge we can then decide what is the American thing to do.

Friday, November 26, 2004

There is movement towards making your vote count

If we start today, maybe enough of us will eventually be convinced that we can make our vote count in a presidential election, whether we're a Republican in Massachusetts, a Democrat in Texas or a Libertarian in Wyoming. There are steps being taken to eliminate the Electoral College. Jesse Jackson, Jr. introduced HJR109 and Delahunt and others have introduced HJR103; both bills call for a popular election of the president and vice president.

We can do something today: write our senator or congressman; sign a petition at
http://www.fairvote.org/petitions/ec/index.php
or write a letter to the editor of your local paper.

Goodby IE?

Many of the most important events of my life have been the result of a chance encounter or an off-hand comment. For example, a brief conversation at a party led to my spending thirty plus years as an entrepreneur. Now, changing browsers is nowhere as important. But, I’ve just changed from Internet Explorer (IE) to Firefox as a result of a brief conversation with an Open Source adherent.

And, surprisingly, from my early experiences with Foxfire, it really seems to be a very good piece of software with some nice features that IE does not have. It’s particularly strong in its privacy aspects. For example, I’ve got a thing about spyware. So, very often with IE I would individually and manually clear out those spyware cookies I did not want. Firefox adopts a different approach and, once they are deleted, you can tell it to keep them out forever. Of course, since there are many fewer users of Firefox, there is less likelihood of a virus. They tout their tabbed browsing and, once I get used to it, it may be pretty nice. Searching is easier as Google is built into the toolbar and other search engines are readily available without typing a url.

Converting was a snap. The download of the software was fast; the importing of favorites, cookies, etc. from IE was even faster. Within two minutes I was surfing. Pages look a little crisper, but that may be wishful thinking. It loads and runs as fast as IE – and, maybe, a little faster. And, it’s free! If you’re interested, go to getfoxfire.com.

This is my first real experience with open source software and, thus far, I’m impressed. Maybe it is for the average user as well as the advanced developer. I look forward to the 1.0 release of Thunderbird, their e-mail product.

Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Isn't the cable industry magnanimous?

Miracles can still happen! The cable industry is willing to forego 14% to 30% more revenue that the recent FCC study claims would be the result of allowing consumers to choose only the cable stations they want. Isn’t that wonderful? The cable industry is more interested in serving the general public than in serving their stockholders. Yeah, right. And I have a bridge I’ll donate to you.

Saturday, November 20, 2004

Men’s Spirituality: Does It Need the Gift of Faith?

I will give this talk at church on Sunday.

As I walked to the podium today, I heard my mother speaking to me from the grave. “Now you’ve done it.”, she said. “How can you even be in a Protestant church? Let alone about to tell people about your spiritual journey without mentioning God or the one true Church (that’s church with a capital C). You’re making things more complex than they are.”

To my mother a spiritual journey was simple; it was a known and well-charted journey. You’re born in sin, you get baptized to remove the sin; live a few years and, naturally, you sin, but you make your confession so that, as a pure soul, you can receive the body and blood of Christ. You live a few more years and get confirmed; you’re now a soldier for Christ. Ten or so years later you marry a nice girl or, better yet, join the priesthood. And then you die, but only after receiving extreme unction. Along the way, you obey the Church and you obey the priests, so that at the end when you shuffle off this earth, you’ll shuffle into heaven.

And, to be fair, many dictionaries back her up. Look up spirituality and you’ll see the words ‘religion’, ‘ecclesiastical’, ‘faith’ as part of the definition. But, for me these words do not define spirituality. Spirituality is not dependent upon a religion nor is it connected to faith.

For me, spirituality is an attempt to get outside oneself, to establish a deep connection with the past, the present and the future of what we call the universe. It does not need a religion or a faith. It is an attempt to give meaning to one’s life.

But, let’s get to the theme of today’s service - Men’s Spirituality. Is there such a thing as men’s spirituality, as opposed to women’s spirituality? In my judgment, no, despite the preachings and writings of Robert Bly and other proponents of the supposed new man; spirituality is a human endeavor. To me, there is no difference between men’s and women’s spirituality. Both strive to achieve a connection with what they perceive to be the eternal so that their life can have meaning, so that when they die they are not simply an old picture on the wall, so that they are another link in the eternal chain which strives to make this earth a better place for all people.

Many men and women have adopted the well charted journey of my mother and others who follow a traditional path to spirituality, a path which has been well defined by those who came before us, a path which depends, in large measure, on the gift of faith. And, believe me, faith is a gift. It’s a wonderful gift. It makes one’s life easier in that there is always a reason for the nastiness that sooner or later touches all of our lives. There is a whole spiritual edifice you can tap into, people you can consult, sacred texts with all the answers. It’s a gift that I wish I had. But, despite being baptized in the one true faith and growing up in a staunch Catholic household, I did not receive the gift or, maybe, it was offered to me and I was too dumb and blind to accept it.

The dictionary definition of spirituality implies that if you don’t have faith, you can’t be a spiritual person. Well, I disagree. You can be a spiritual person without having received the gift of faith. You can connect with the eternal. You can give meaning to your life. Without having the gift of faith, you can find spiritual experiences in the actions of nature or of man.

The spiritual journey is hard. Without faith it is harder. You can get so caught up in your daily life that it becomes difficult to take the step back that is needed, to stop for a moment and contemplate life and your place in it. Oftentimes the spiritual experience creeps up on you, catching you unawares. It can happen just suddenly looking up on a starry winter night in West Tisbury and seeing your place in the universe – infinitesimal yet very human and aware. Or, it can be a more intense experience of sitting on South Beach a few hours after narrowly escaping a near fatal car accident while driving to the Vineyard..

There are a variety of experiences that have become spiritual experiences for me. Reading the opening words of the Gospel of John, the first section of Remembrance of Things Past, the last chapter of The Stranger. Seeing Our Town for the first time and hearing Emily’s words: “Do any human beings ever realize life while they live it?—every, every minute?” Hearing Brubeck introduce Take Five at Newport or Tebaldi as Mimi or Sondheim’s Move On.

But it is not only the aesthetic that has become spiritual for me. Some conversations with a kindred soul have turned into spiritual experiences for me and, I hope, for the person I’m speaking with. Seeing my kids being born linked me to the past, the present and the future of the universe. Watching serious, trained athletes striving to achieve their potential can bring one out of his daily life and into the attempts of man to transcend this place. A variety of experiences, through all of which you try to connect with the eternal.

I’ll close with some words from Thornton Wilder. They are spoken by the Stage Manager at the start of Act 3 of Our Town: “We all know that something is eternal. And it ain’t houses and it ain’t names, and it ain’t earth, and it ain’t even the stars . . . everybody knows in their bones that something is eternal, and that something has to do with human beings. All the greatest people ever lived have been telling us that for five thousand years and yet you’d be surprised how people are always losing hold of it. There’s something way down deep that’s eternal about every human being.”

Wednesday, November 17, 2004

Not an Auspicious Start

Spellings makes the fourth Bush White House insider to be nominated to the Cabinet. This is not a good sign, far from it. In my posting of November 8 I hoped that the second Bush administration would be one that was courageous and human enough to admit their fallibility. And, by appointing people with different viewpoints who speak their mind, the administration would encourage disagreements and their resolution so that future mistakes could be avoided.

Appointing lackeys, no matter how smart they may be, is not the way to ensure a legacy that future generations will be proud of.

A Marriage Made in Heaven Or ....?

Remember when your mother bought your school clothes at Sears and most of the appliances in your home were Kenmore? It was about the same time that everybody knew what they could buy at Kresge’s and did so. Both Sears and Kresge’s were American icons. The past several years have not been good ones for either company. Kresge, now K-Mart, has been through a bankruptcy and you hardly hear of people shopping at Sears anymore, assuming you can find a store.

Today, K-Mart bought Sears. Will the combination be able to restore their former glory? It’s doubtful, as for a long time both companies have not had what it takes to succeed in the 21st century as separate organizations. Why should a combination be able to figure out how to compete effectively today when neither one of them has been able to do so separately?

Sunday, November 14, 2004

Who was Gerry Mander?

Sad to say but every so often you get set in your ways, turn off the gray cells and ignore the obvious. If you’re lucky, someone will bring you back to reality. In my case, the subject was gerrymandering and the someone who forced me to look at the issue was my youngest son, Greg.

As you know, I live in a Democratic state. In general, our Congressmen have been fairly decent. And, truth be told, I can’t recall a Republican for whom I would have voted; the candidates offered up by the GOP have been lackluster. But, who can blame them? Would anybody really capable run when the chances of winning are infinitesimal because the opposition has stacked things in its favor?

The problem is not unique to our little state. It is now part and parcel of our national political system. I think that there were only five incumbent congressmen who lost this time, and three of them were gerrymandered out of their safe seats in Texas. This is not a way to get the best people to represent us. Nor is it a way to preserve our tri-partite system of executive, legislative and judicial branches.

That something needs to be done is starting to be recognized by people on both sides of the political spectrum. Just last week The Wall Street Journal ran an editorial on the subject. On the other side of the aisle, the people at fairvote.org are also proselytizing for an impartial commission to define the congressional districts in each state. Of course, it is assumed that this commission would also draw the lines for the state representatives as well.

Iowa and, I think, Washington have already done something about this and appointed a nonpartisan group to define district boundaries. More states need to follow.

I know that the electoral reforms I’ve advocated over the last month – changing the electoral college, one six-year term for the president and an end to gerrymandering – seem like pie in the sky today. But, many of the ideas that seemed like pie in the sky yesterday have become today’s accepted way of doing things.


Saturday, November 13, 2004

One Term Is Better Than Two

So now the talk is about Bush’s legacy. Only after a president has won a second term does the press talk about a “legacy”. Shouldn’t a president always be thinking about a legacy, i.e., something that he transmits to future generations? Why should he be more concerned with what he’s passing on to our children, grandchildren and other future residents of this country and this planet in his second term rather than in his first term?

One reason is that much of his first term is spent trying to make sure that he does win a second term. How much time, effort and dollars does any president waste in term 1 wooing the electorate? Would we all not be much better off if the president concentrated all his energies and powers on solving today’s problems and trying to avoid the problems of tomorrow?

Why can’t we simply eliminate the problem of the second term by amending the Constitution so that the president serves a single six year term? We’ve changed the term of the president before. Article XXII of the Constitution, passed in 1951, limited the president to serving two four-year terms.

There has been something wrong in the state of our elections for a long term. Allowing a president to serve two terms is one of the things that is wrong.

Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Emerging Economies: Good or Bad for US?

Maybe I’m just waking up or I could simply be a slow learner. Whatever the reason, I am only just now starting to worry (perhaps I’ve become a worry wart in my old age!) about the emerging economies, particularly China and India, and their impact on us.

For example, one of the reasons for the significant rise in the price of oil is China’s growing need for energy. Yes, there are other reasons – the war, declining exploration for two – but the demand for energy by a new economic power is something unknown in the world as we have known it. That world was one dominated by the United States, Europe and Japan. Things are changing. I suspect this change is akin to the rise of the US in the 20th century. We do live in a finite world. Recalibrating the use of our finite resources will be no mean feat.

A recent Wall Street Journal article talked about our recent trade deficit in food, of all things. While this particular deficit is only for the past quarter or two, some feel that there will be a food deficit for the entire year. This has not happened for many years. The article ascribed several reasons to the deficit. One really caught my eye: competition. We are experiencing real agricultural competition now. Russia, which could not get enough of our wheat, is now exporting its wheat. Brazil is a strong factor in the soy bean market. McDonald’s imports 20% of its needs from Australia and New Zealand. Vietnam supplies a lot of shrimp to us. Europe doesn’t like our genetically modified food.

We, as a nation, have always championed competition over cooperation. Can we continue to do so? Can we become more competitive? It’s very hard to become competitive when

  • we are fighting a war which asks for zero sacrifices from the home front,

  • our overall deficit is at its highest in history and there appears to be little effort on our leaders part to do something about it,

  • real income of the working class is declining,

  • we are more concerned with mouthing about values rather than incorporating into our own lives the values that made this country great,

  • our business leaders are overly focused on the current quarter,

  • and on and on………………….


    Monday, November 08, 2004

    Where to now?

    It’s over. Thank the Lord. However, now the pundits will spend the next few weeks or months telling us why Kerry lost. They’ll give us all sorts of ‘reasons’ from the gay marriage question to terrorism. But, the real reason why Kerry lost is simple: he was a weak candidate and ran a poor campaign. Heck, until the first debate just about everyone who was a Kerry supporter was, in fact, an anti-Bush partisan. Beginning an effective campaign a month before the election is not exactly a recipe for success. Nor is an unremarkable record as a senator.

    I guess now we’ll see an exodus of the ABB people. Or, will we? How many of us can afford to pull up stakes here for the next four or more years? Is life really better elsewhere? Yes, the president and the federal government are important factors in our lives. But, our local and state governments probably exert more influence on us. And, life is more than government.

    The election is over. Is Bush’s record as a failure ended? I know that I’m not alone in hoping so. These are the areas to watch.

    An overweening confidence
    No human being is without fault. We all make mistakes, and others are willing to accept that fact. What we find hard to accept is the claim that no mistakes have been made in the past four years. If Bush begins to accept that he and those who report to whom have erred, then hope of a better tomorrow begins to glimmer. One sign of this would be the resignations of Rumsfeld and Ashcroft.

    Encourage disagreement
    This goes hand in hand with an overweening confidence. Yes, there is a need for a united stand but only after dissident voices have been heard. Any manager worth his salt wants to know that his decision has met the test of other capable individuals. And, any professional should have the gumption and decency to resign if he is very strongly opposed to a major presidential decision. Right, Colin?

    Tolerance
    We are moving towards a state religion, Christianity. This country was founded by those seeking religious freedom; we need to preserve the separation of church and state. Do we want to adopt the bible as a way to run our country as Afghanistan and other Muslim countries adopted the law of sharia to run their countries? Yet, this – the desire for an Islamic state - is why some of our people are killed in Iraq almost every day now.

    Fiscal maturity and honesty
    Acknowledge that we have a major problem today in that we are spending far beyond our means. Ask the country to sacrifice for a better nation tomorrow.

    Who’s watching the hen house?
    Appoint people who will actually monitor, and not collude with, the industry they are supposed to watch.

    Practice what we preach

    Let's make sure that we really are the land of the free and the home of the brave.

    Saturday, October 30, 2004

    It's over before you know it

    The photo below is of my nephew, Eddie, and his wife, Leanne. It was taken at Anthony's Pier 4 Restaurant in Boston in January of this year. Nine months later he's dead. You wouldn't know it from the photo or from his attitude but he had a deadly form of cancer. He lasted a few months longer than the doctors said he would. Fortunately, the ending was fairly swift.

    But is 'fortunately' the right word? How do we, the living, know what the last few days of life in a hospital bed are really like? Does one lose the most human of emotions, hope? Maybe that is good: to see the world as it is and not as we want it to be tomorrow. Well, we'll all get the chance to know the answer to that question.

    Peace, Eddie.

    9 months to go Posted by Hello

    Labor AND Capital

    In a very interesting article in the October 21 New York Review of Books, Benjamin Friedman, Economics Professor at Harvard, discusses the differences between the economic programs of Messrs Kerry and Bush. Here are three excerpts.

    “Labor as an input to the economic production process has little place in Mr. Bush’s vision of an “ownership society”, and people whose place in the economy is simply to work for a living are clearly not those whom his policies seek to encourage and reward. Is this the new future – a world in which, as in Star Trek, the problem of satisfying society’s material wants has been solved and human input (or at least input by Americans) is mostly unnecessary? Or is it a betrayal of the long tradition of respect for everyday work that Max Weber identified with Calvinism, and that in America has been a popular moral theme from Cotton Mather to Horatio Alger to Franklin Roosevelt to Ronald Reagan?”

    “Attitudes toward work are one way to judge how a society regards itself. Athens and Rome were slave societies. Citizens ideally did no work, but rather devoted themselves to participation in civic affairs. The Judeo-Christian tradition more typically regarded work as a necessity compelled by divine order, reflecting an essential burden borne by humanity….”

    “the fundamental economic issue of this election involves the respective roles of work and saving – labor and capital – in the economy we seek to create. Do we value and encourage one, or the other, or both?”

    This election is not only about Iraq. It is about us and the future we want for this country. We need labor. We need capital. We need a united nation.

    It Takes More Than Guns

    Okay, Osama is a bad, really bad guy. But, sometimes bad guys tell the truth, at least as they see it. If we don’t listen to the enemy and learn what he is thinking and why he is acting as he does, we’re going to have a hard time defeating him. To simply dismiss his latest statements by pronouncing your intent to destroy him is not being very smart. Let’s hope Bush and Kerry’s statements are only campaign talk.

    Here are some excerpts from Osama’s talk:

    "If Bush says we hate freedom, let him tell us why we didn't attack Sweden, for example. We fought you because we are free . . . and want to regain freedom for our nation. If you undermine our security, we undermine yours."

    "I tell you: security is an important element of human life and free people do not give up their security."

    "Your security is not in the hands of (Democratic candidate John) Kerry or Bush or Al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands." (My emphasis)

    True, excerpts do not always tell the whole story. But, do you disagree with any of the three excerpts above?

    I’m reminded of the furor generated after 9/11 when Reuters (?) commented that your terrorist is my freedom fighter. It was true then and is true now. It’s very difficult to defeat a terrorist unless you understand his or her motivations. We need to defeat the terrorist with guns, ideas and actions. A gun, an idea, an action by itself will not do the job. It has to be a combination.

    Friday, October 29, 2004

    Make your vote count in 2008

    How many times have you heard, “My vote doesn’t count in this state. Bush or Kerry has this state locked up.”? This is the lament that has been heard almost since the start of the Electoral College. And, it is a reality. Here in Massachusetts (and on Martha’s Vineyard where I live), Kerry will win by a landslide, as will Bush in Texas. The votes of the minority in each state will not count. Further, as the Center for Voting and Democracy (www.fairvote.org/e-college/reform.htm) shows, voters in states with few electoral votes have a greater say in the election than voters in states with a significant number of electoral votes.

    The chances are that you won’t hear any more about this after November 2, assuming, of course, that the fiasco of 2000 is not repeated. We don’t get riled up about this extremely important issue until a month or two before each presidential election. We should because, simply put, it is not fair. The site mentioned above, http://www.fairvote.org/, has several cogent arguments about this issue. But, all the cogent arguments in the world will result in nothing unless we, the people, can increase our attention spans beyond the sound bite.

    Can The Stars Be Wrong?

    NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Surveys in the United States may be showing the race for president as too close to call but top Indian astrologers say the planets have clearly made up their mind: John Kerry will win.
    Planets governing President Bush are eclipsed and in an uncomfortable position, making his tenure controversial and his re-election bid unsuccessful, the soothsayers said on Friday, four days before the vote.
    On the other hand, the planets of Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry were in the ascendant, ensuring him success in competitions.
    "Saturn, which is the lord of health and fortune for President Bush, has been eclipsed by the Sun, which is unfortunate and gives him a clear defeat," Lachhman Das Madan, editor of a popular astrology magazine, told Reuters.
    "Kerry will win," said Madan, who is also known as "the emperor of astrologers." "It is cosmic writ that George W. Bush cannot become president of United States again."
    Ajai Bhambi, a senior astrologer and author of several books on the science of predictions, agreed.
    "Kerry is likely to beat Bush in the final verdict," he told the New Indian Express newspaper.
    Bejan Daruwalla, another top astrologer, told Reuters he had yet to calculate who would win Tuesday's election. But Bush, even if he won, would not be allowed by his planets to complete a full term, he said.
    Astrology is extremely popular in India and many top politicians, businessmen and movie stars consult astrologers before taking important decisions.
    Tuesday's vote is forecast to be one of the closest in American history. A Reuters/Zogby poll showed on Thursday that Bush was leading Kerry by 48 to 46 percent but the lead was well within the poll's margin of error.

    © Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

    Thursday, October 28, 2004

    Is Three a Magic Number?

    Good things come in threes. Or, so our elders said. Is 2004 a year in which this bromide will hold? In January, the Patriots, the Massachusetts football team, won the Super Bowl. In October, the Red Sox, the Massachusetts baseball team, won the World Series (after 86 years, mind you). In November, will John Forbes Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, win the presidency? A month ago I wouldn’t have bet ten cents on it. Now, I’d bet ten dollars.

    Of course, the pundits tell us the election race is still murky but it looks like their guy is leading. But does the media really know anything? Is it trying to tell the truth?

    I think Bush is really getting scared. Even Bush’s friends are not exactly supportive. Allawi calls us negligent in not protecting his recruits. Buchanan castigates Bush for the war and the deficit. The editor of The American Conservative outlines the reasons why he is not voting for Bush.

    In the ‘old’ days, when people had some scruples and a modicum of decency, failed presidents took themselves out of the office. Johnson declined to run. Nixon resigned. Yet, both Johnson and Nixon had major accomplishments, Johnson in civil rights, Nixon in China. I seriously doubt that this administration will be remembered for anything even remotely comparable. Whatever they’ve touched has turned not to gold but to excrement.

    Sunday, October 24, 2004

    How Do You Spell Dumb?

    You've heard of provisional voting, right? It's an attempt to count the votes of those who don't know where they should vote. Well, if you don't know where to vote and lack the ability to find out where you should vote, should you be allowed to vote?

    I'm not an advocate of limiting voting rights according to one's intelligence. But, Lord, there has to be some minimum level of competence on the part of the voter. If you don't have the initiative to find out where you should be voting, it's highly unlikely that you have the initiative to find out whom to vote for.

    How much more can this country be dumbed down and still function as a representative democracy?

    Tuesday, October 19, 2004

    When do you become who you really are?

    Our monthly Men’s Group was discussing retirement last Sunday night. There seemed to be a consensus that retirement was a period when you finally had the time to be who you wanted to be. I found this sad and wondered how one could live for 65 years always aspiring to ‘be oneself’ and never trying to actually do it because of politics, stress, inertia, what have you. It must have been very difficult, particularly when they were working and living in the country that has most rewarded entrepreneurship. What was it that made them hide their true selves? These are not stupid people, nor are they neophytes in the ways of the world. Many of them had responsible jobs and traveled extensively in more than one continent.

    It was interesting to me that those agreeing with the consensus had spent their careers in large companies as I, who worked for smaller companies, always felt that I was being who I wanted to be. If I ever worked for a company that did not let me run my own show, I took what some may consider the coward’s way out and left. I have not amassed a fortune, nor have we lived lavishly. But, I’d much rather have lived my life during the past 65 years than have put it on hold for my retirement so I could spend my pension trying to find out who I am and doing what I should have been doing all along..

    Life is Full of Surprises

    Like most clichés, the cliché “Life is full of surprises” does occasionally come to pass. So it is with the roundabout issue here on the Vineyard that I wrote about a while ago. Who would have thought that the Oak Bluffs Selectmen, no less, would actually reconsider a decision that would bring the town some money from the state? But, they did! And all Vineyard residents – not just Oak Bluffs residents – should be thankful.

    Giving credit where it is due, I have to applaud the decision of Selectman Combra to announce that he felt a mistake was made. It took a certain degree of courage to oppose the traffic establishment of the Martha’s Vineyard Commission and the Oak Bluffs Highway Department, which, incidentally, is headed by Richard Combra, Jr. But, Combra appears to have listened to the pedestrians, the bikers, those who questioned the ‘experts’, and done the right thing. He and two other selectmen realized that it was wrong to try to solve a problem that may exist some years hence and only in the summer months. Maybe, there is hope that Oak Bluffs can improve its governance.

    Sunday, October 10, 2004

    This is not California

    The mushroom shown below is growing on Martha's Vineyard, although based on my reading of a super site about mushrooms, www.mykoweb.com, this grows in California and not 3000 miles to the east. Its offical name is omphalotus olivascens. Do you remember what omphalos means?

    Jack-O-Lantern mushroom Posted by Hello

    Saturday, October 09, 2004

    The Audience Won Debate #2

    The real stars of last night’s debate were the audience and their questions. They demonstrated a concern for and knowledge of our country that, no matter our political bent, was one of the most American aspects of this vicious, non-American political campaign. It would have been very American of the candidates to have actually answered the questions instead of resorting to reciting their political mantras.

    Yet, we have to make a choice and, in my father’s words, pick the lesser of two evils. Fortunately, once again, the proven failure fell short. Bush did not do as badly as in Debate #1, but he still lost. I know that my New England background has instilled some bias in me, but, Lord, how many failures is the public willing to accept? As I’ve said before, it is not only Iraq or the war on terrorism or the economy or…… It is becoming harder and harder to identify many successes in fact as opposed to in words.

    Another big nail was driven into the coffin of Bush’s defeat by the latest report on the non-existence of WMD in Iraq and its conclusion that sanctions were preventing Saddam from doing much beyond wishing and posturing about WMD.

    The big day is three weeks from Tuesday. Kerry has my state. Does he have yours?

    Wednesday, October 06, 2004

    List in LSBLOGS

    I just listed this blog in www.lsblogs.com. It may be another way to increase traffic.

    More of the Same

    Haven’t Bush and Cheney ever read Emerson? You know the famous quote: “a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds”. Are they not aware that we are all fallible?

    The past two days have seen two of their stalwarts come clean. Rumsfeld admitted before the Senate that there is no real evidence of any Saddam-Al Qaeda tie. Bremer admitted that there were not enough troops on the ground in 2003 to secure the country. And today the Washington Post reports that the last word on WMD will be given as a report by Charles Duelfer, chief US weapons inspector in Iraq, is issued that concludes “that Hussein had the desire but not the means to produce unconventional weapons that could threaten his neighbors or the West”. Yet, last night Cheney still claimed an Iraq Al Qaeda connection, that our generals get anything they want, that Saddam was close to producing WMD.

    Cheney reminded me of Dr. Strangelove last night. He kept repeating the consistency mantra. However, as Edwards pointed out, the administration has not been the hallmark of consistency they claim. They claim we are winning the war on terror. True, we’ve captured Al Qaeda leaders. True, we’ve killed Al Qaeda faithful. But, are there more or fewer Al Qaeda members today than four years ago? Are there more or fewer terrorist attacks in the world? To quote President Reagan, are we better off today than we were four years ago? The answer is obvious.

    They claim the economy is vibrant. The NY Times had an interesting chart about a month ago showing the job growth or loss under presidents since 1929. The administrations of only two presidents had job losses in that time – Hoover and Bush. We are now running the largest deficit ever. Oil is over $50 a barrel. I belong to the first generation in a long time that sadly can say, “Our kids will not be as well of as we were.”

    Again, I want to make it clear that I don’t think Kerry and Edwards are the saviors of the country and the world. Neither one has been an outstanding senator. But, given the administration’s utter failure in virtually every arena, we have to take a chance on them.