Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Were they wrong?

The following ad appeared in the NY Times of September 26, 2002. The war started on March 19, 2003.  Should we have listened to this ad?

WAR WITH IRAQ
IS NOT IN AMERICA'S
NATIONAL INTEREST

As scholars of international security affairs, we recognize that war is sometimes necessary to ensure our national security or other vital interests. We also recognize that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and that Iraq has defied a number of U.N. resolutions. But military force should be used only when it advances U.S. national interests. War with Iraq does not meet this standard.
  • Saddam Hussein is a murderous despot, but no one has provided credible evidence that Iraq is cooperating with al Qaeda.
  • Even if Saddam Hussein acquired nuclear weapons, he could not use them without suffering massive U.S. or Israeli retaliation.
  • The first Bush administration did not try to conquer Iraq in 1991 because it understood that doing so could spread instability in the Middle East, threatening U.S. interests. This remains a valid concern today.
  • The United States would win a war against Iraq, but Iraq has military options—chemical and biological weapons, urban combat—that might impose significant costs on the invading forces and neighboring states.
  • Even if we win easily, we have no plausible exit strategy. Iraq is a deeply divided society that the United States would have to occupy and police for many years to create a viable state.
  • Al Qaeda poses a greater threat to the U.S. than does Iraq. War with Iraq will jeopardize the campaign against al Qaeda by diverting resources and attention from that campaign and by increasing anti-Americanism around the globe.
The United States should maintain vigilant containment of Iraq—using its own assets and the resources of the United Nations—and be prepared to invade Iraq if it threatens to attack America or its allies. That is not the case today. We should concentrate instead on defeating al Qaeda.
Robert J. Art
Brandeis University
Richard K. Betts
Columbia University
Dale C. Copeland
University of Virginia
Michael C. Desch
University of Kentucky
Sumit Ganguly
University of Texas
Charles L. Glaser
University of Chicago
Alexander L. George
Stanford University
Richard K. Herrmann
Ohio State University
George C. Herring
University of Kentucky
Robert Jervis
Columbia University
Chaim Kaufmann
Lehigh University
Carl Kaysen
MIT
Elizabeth Kier
University of Washington
Deborah Larson
UCLA
Jack S. Levy
Rutgers University
Peter Liberman
Queens College
John J. Mearsheimer
University of Chicago
Steven E. Miller
Harvard University
Charles C. Moskos
Northwestern University
Robert A. Pape
University of Chicago
Barry R. Posen
MIT
Robert Powell
UC—Berkeley
George H. Quester
University of Maryland
Richard Rosecrance
UCLA
Thomas C. Schelling
University of Maryland
Randall L. Schweller
Ohio State University
Glenn H. Snyder
University of North Carolina
Jack L. Snyder
Columbia University
Shibley Telhami
University of Maryland
Stephen van Evera
MIT
Stephen M. Walt
Harvard University
Kenneth N. Waltz
Columbia University
Cindy Williams
MIT
Institutions listed for identification purposes only.
Paid for by the signatories and individual contributors (773-702-8667; 617-495-5712).

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