Saturday, October 31, 2009
That makes 115
"It's not our war. It is your war"
True, it's only one person's comment. But Clinton heard many similar comments from Pakistanis this past week. Whether it was provincial leaders, students or journalists, the message was the same - we don't think that the U.S. actions are helping Pakistanis. And, of course, the more frequent use of drones does not help our position, no matter how many bad guys we kill.
The French Do It Differently
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Two Helpings Are Not Enough
We are the lenders of last resort for GMAC, because no one wants to lend to them. Shouldn't banks be doing much of the lending to the auto industry? Would they? They haven't been exactly passing out money for home loans.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
It's Not The Pentagon Papers
Hoh is an ex-Marine who served in Iraq twice. In March he went to Afghanistan as a Foreign Service Officer. It seems that whether he was a marine or foreign service officer he did an outstanding job. Read his resignation letter and you may understand why I feel this way.
Here are some excerpts from Hoh's resignation letter:
I fail to see the value or the worth in continued U.S. casualties or expenditure of resources in support of the Afghan government in what is, truly, a 35-year-old civil war.
Like the Soviets, we continue to secure and bolster a failing state, while encouraging and ideology and system of government unknown and unwanted by its people.
the bulk of the insurgency fights not for the white banner of the Taliban, but rather against the presence of foreign soldiers and taxes imposed by an unrepresentative government in Kabul.
The United States military presence in Afghanistan greatly contributes to the legitimacy and strategic message of the Pashtun insurgency.
I find specious the reasons we ask for bloodshed and sacrifice from our young men and women in Afghanistan.
Finally, if our concern is for a failed state... then we must reevaluate and increase our commitment to and involvement in Mexico.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
The Case for Withdrawal
The Nation's current issue is primarily centered on the reasons why staying in Afghanistan in a mistake. As the following introduction from the periodical shows, the articles cover just about all of the reasons for disengagement.
Much like the debate surrounding the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the discussion on the best course of US policy in Afghanistan is distorted by a number of faulty assumptions, if not outright myths. The essays in this forum call into question many of those assumptions and offer a different way of looking at the crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan and what is at stake for the people of the region and for the United States.
The principal rationale for America's expanding military commitment in Afghanistan is that a Taliban takeover there would directly threaten US security because it would again become a safe haven for Al Qaeda to plot attacks against the United States. But the essays by Stephen Walt and John Mueller strongly refute that assumption, pointing out that a Taliban victory would not necessarily mean a return of Al Qaeda to Afghanistan, and that in any case the strategic value of Afghanistan and Pakistan as base camps for Al Qaeda is greatly exaggerated and can be easily countered.Similarly, proponents of sending more troops to Afghanistan argue that Taliban success would embolden global jihadists everywhere and destabilize Pakistan in particular. Yet, as the essays by Selig Harrison and Priya Satia show, this narrative does not fit the realities. While American policy-makers and Al Qaeda may think of this as a grand meta-struggle between the United States and global jihadism, many Taliban fighters are motivated by other factors: by traditional Pashtun resistance to foreign occupation; by internal ethnic politics, such as rebellion against the Tajik-dominated government of Hamid Karzai; or by anger over the loss of life resulting from American/NATO aerial attacks that have gone awry.
As for Pakistan, the essays by Manan Ahmed and Mosharraf Zaidi explain why the Taliban threat to Pakistan is not as serious as many assume, and why a newly democratic Pakistan has turned increasingly against Islamist extremists. As Ahmed and Zaidi suggest, Pakistanis are quite capable of defending their country--not for American interests but for their own reasons--and Pakistani stability is more likely to be threatened than enhanced by military escalation in Afghanistan.
And finally, Robert Dreyfuss offers an exit strategy: as it winds down its counterinsurgency, Washington should encourage an international Bonn II conference that would lead to a new national compact in Afghanistan. --The Editors
A special kind of chair
This is a specially-equipped lounge chair that Dennis Anderson drove around the streets of Proctor, Mn. It has a stereo, a nitrous oxide booster, a parachute and headlights. It can get up to 20 mph. I'm not sure how fast Mr. Anderson was driving when he crashed into a parked car. He probably doesn't know as he was drunk when the accident occurred.
He's serving two years probation and has had his chair impounded by the police. Look for it on E-bay, as it will be auctioned off.
Chickens Coming Home
Thursday, October 22, 2009
One too many calories
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Correcting the Credit Rating Agency Problem
Image by Getty Images via Daylife
roposed legislation:- there is no independent due diligence with regard to a proposed offering
- the position of compliance officer needs to be strengthened considerably
- the SEC should work with the compliance officer.
Bring Back Glass-Steagall
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Listen up, Geithner
Obama needs a Plan B
That's what Stephen Walt thinks because the current foreign policy is just not working. And, of course, Walt has the beginnings of such a plan. And it's not a bad start!
So what's Plan B? I'm still wrestling with that issue myself, but here's a quick sketch of some of the fundamental ideas. Plan B begins by recognizing that the United States remains the most secure great power in modern history and that most of damage we have suffered recently has come from scaring ourselves into foolish foreign adventures. It means rejecting the belief -- common to both neoconservatives and liberal internationalists -- that virtually every global problem requires an American solution and "American leadership." It acknowledges that social engineering in complex traditional societies is something we don't know how to do and probably can't learn, but it takes comfort from the fact that it is also a task that we don't have to do. It accepts that there are a few bad guys out there that do need to be confronted, captured, and sometimes killed, but understands that the more force we use and the heavier our footprint is, the more resistance we will ultimately face. And yes, Plan B understands that sometimes bad things will happen to Americans, and there is nothing we can do to completely eliminate all foreign dangers. Get used to it.
Plan B means playing "hard to get" more often, so that other states don't take us for granted and so that they bear a greater share of common burdens. It means exploiting balances of power and playing divide-and-conquer, instead of trying to impose a preponderance of U.S. power on every corner of the globe. It prizes the individual freedoms that are the core of American democracy -- freedoms that are threatened by a steady diet of foreign wars -- and it recognizes that other societies will have to find their own way toward more pluralist and participatory forms of government, and at their own pace. It seeks to maintain armed forces that are second to none but eschews squandering lives or money on peripheral wars that are neither vital nor winnable. It rejects "special relationships" with any other state, if by that one means relationships where we support other states even when they do foolish things that are not in our interest (or theirs).
And Plan B proceeds from the belief that other states will be more likely to follow America's lead if they look at us and like what they see. America used to dazzle the world by offering up a vision of opportunity, equality, energy and competence that was unimaginable elsewhere. The danger now is that America is increasingly seen as a land of crumbling infrastructure, mountainous debt, uninsured millions, fraying public institutions, and xenophobic media buffoons. Over the longer term, getting our house in order back home will to a lot more to shore up our global position than conducting endless foot patrols through the Afghan countryside.
Fly me to the moon
The chart to the left is from the Washington Post analysis of perquisites given to the CEOs of the twenty-nine largest public financial companies that we bailed out. The bailed-out increased their perquisites by 4% in 2008; other Fortune 100 companies decreased their perquisites by 7%.
Two particularly egregious examples, as shown here, are GMAC, which gave their CEO $2,500,000 to help pay his taxes, and Comerica, which paid the boss' country club $200,000 for initiation fees and dues.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Greed
Hall asserts that Moody's "purg[ed]analysts and executives who warned of trouble and promoting those who helped Wall Street plunge the country into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression." All for the sake of increasing revenues and, ultimately, profits; revenues went from $800,700,000 in 2001 to $2.037 billion in 2006.
Systematically Timed
Granted it's an academic study that has yet to be published. But one should remember the furor about backdating options that was started by another WSJ article. Plus, the Journal has given some form of imprimatur by saying that it has reviewed a number of company filings and agrees with the professors.
Triple the Workload But Don't Increase the Staff
Image via Wikipedia
as they handled one application a week, which, to me, seems reasonable, maybe a little light but reasonable. Requiring the handlers to handle three applications a week would result in delays or errors in processing. It's the latter problem that an audit by the HUD Inspector General revealed.The FHA did not have sufficient controls in place to ensure that regulations were being met. They did not check with other offices about their experience with the lenders. Nor did they collect all fees that were due. Or make sure that all supporting documents were obtained. Or that lender certifications were appropriate.
"If they're too big to fail, they're too big"
And a few more comments from a talk given last week at the Council of Foreign Relations.
“If you don’t neutralize that (i.e., the too-big-to-fail issue), you’re going to get a moribund group of obsolescent institutions which will be a big drain on the savings of the society,” he said.
“Failure is an integral part, a necessary part of a market system,” he said. “If you start focusing on those who should be shrinking, it undermines growing standards of living and can even bring them down.”
Can you guess the speaker? Alan Greenspan! If he's on the bandwagon, why can't Geithner and company move faster and smarter on the issue?
Saturday, October 17, 2009
If you keep calling me a murderer, I'll kill you.
A Pakistani Taliban group is apparently worried about how the media perceives them. The group does not like to be portrayed as terrorists by the media. They sent a letter to the Lahore Press Club warning that if the media “does not stop portraying us as terrorists ... we will blow up offices of journalists and media organisations”.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
Two Views of Afghanistan
Helena Cobban brings up the question of China as it relates to Afghanistan. In her view China has benefited enormously from our dalliances in both Iraq and Afghanistan. She quotes from a recent article by someone fairly high up in the Chinese government. The writer thinks the UN is much better able to handle the situation than the Western coalition is.
Sharing the wealth
Changing his mind
Sunday, October 11, 2009
A Pivotal Moment?
Stalling the Investigation into the Gaza War
Helena Cobban, who is a pretty astute observer, reports on two rumors circulating in Palestine as to why Abbas and Fatah may want to go slow with any action on the Goldstone report:
- Israel has offered money to a Palestinian company that is tight with Fatah and wants to start a cell-phone service.
- There are tapes clearly showing Abbas urging Israel to continue its attack on Gaza.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
What if?
Walt concludes by quoting Robert Kaplan, who, despite being in favor of staying the course, writes "history suggests that over time we can more easily preserve our standing in the world by using naval and airpower from a distance when intervening abroad. Afghanistan should be the very last place where we are a land-based meddler, caught up in internal Islamic conflict, helping the strategic ambitions of the Chinese and others."
How meaningful a milestone?
Just how meaningful in this milestone? The program started in May with 55,000 homeowners. 1,711 have completed the program. That's a little over 3%. The Congressional Oversight Panel points out that foreclosures are running at double the number of new trials. The panel also concluded "It increasingly appears that HAMP is targeted at the housing crisis as it existed six months ago, rather than as it exists right now." "The result for many homeowners could be that foreclosure is delayed, not avoided."
The companies involved in the program have not been exactly knocking it out of the park. BofA has only process 7% of the eligible loans. Citi and JP have done better at 26% and 25%, respectively.
Sure, 500,000 cases have been started. But, how many are completed? How many are needed?
Friday, October 09, 2009
1984
Image via Wikipedia
Tony Morgan, managing director of Internet Eyes, believes that people are just dying to watch shots from some of these cameras. His company is offering a prize of 1,000 pounds to the person who reports the most crimes for the month. He's set up a web site so that people can see what the camera sees by logging in. Morgan's customers are really the stores with cameras. He plans to charge them 20 pounds a month for his 'crime prevention' services.
While Morgan has devised rules that make this process seem like a game, he claims ""This isn't a game - it's serious. This is all about crime prevention and it could be very, very effective. At the moment people look at CCTV and think someone might or might not be watching so they commit the crimes anyway. Once this gets going and we get signs saying that the CCTV is part of our scheme, it will be an extra deterrent because people will know they are probably being watched."
Obama wins Nobel Peace prize
This is unbelievable but it is a headline in the NY Times. What effect will this have on the deliberations going on now about Afghanistan? This will really drive the crazies up the wall.
From the citation:
“Obama has as President created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts. The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations. Thanks to Obama’s initiative, the United States is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting. Democracy and human rights are to be strengthened.”
“Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world’s attention and given its people hope for a better future. His diplomacy is founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world’s population,” the citation said.
“For 108 years, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has sought to stimulate precisely that international policy and those attitudes for which Obama is now the world’s leading spokesman. The Committee endorses Obama’s appeal that ‘now is the time for all of us to take our share of responsibility for a global response to global challenges.’”
Rules of the Road
The question is - is he having too much of a dialogue with Goldman, JP Morgan, Citibank and Black Rock? The Wall Street Journal reports he had 80 telephone calls with the leaders of these four institutions in the first six months of his term. True, these are very important institutions and we invested a fair amount in them, but we also invested quite a bit in Bank of America, GM and Chrysler. Geithner had "far less contact" with Ken Lewis, one with Chrysler and zero with GM. Even Paulson had far fewer phone calls with these people he was supposed to be regulating. What's that expression about Caesar's wife?
It may also be that Geithner continues to need mentors, as he has had for much of his career.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Fall is the Slow Time for Congress
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
A very rare occurence
A Really Intimate Suicide Bomber
You know the airport lines and general aggravation caused by Richard Reid's shoe bomb. Plus, you can't take a drink into the terminal waiting area. What will the authorities devise to protect us against people who really want to become literal assholes?
Monday, October 05, 2009
Paying the Bad Guys
Even beyond having to deal with these nasty people, our vaunted Treasury Department is not doing a very good job of overseeing this program. The GAO pointed to major gaps in the Treasury's oversight structure, stemming in part from a serious under-staffing situation (when will the Treasury be fully staffed? It's been almost 9 months now.) So, the servicers can still pick up their checks but do very little to earn them.
Serving Time
Image via Wikipedia
Has Roman Polanski served his time? His Hollywood compatriots think so, unless, of course, they think that he should not have served any time for plying a 13-year-old with quaaludes and champagne before having sex with her. They think he should serve no time despite the fact he pled guilty to the charges.I wonder what they would say if it were their daughter, even if the daughter had forgiven him? Should an admitted rapist go free because he is an 'artist'? The answer is obvious. He did it and should pay the price.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
The Upper Hand
It turns out that this differential is also big money when it comes to the profits of these biggest banks. On average, it amounts to 9% of profits. But for Capital One, for example, it's more than that; it's 30%.
Not a bad deal.
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Semper Paratus
Mortgages: The Good and The Bad
They've been able to sell billions of this crap by waving a magic wand and dividing these downgraded bonds into two pieces - the good (which a rating agency will rate as AAA or close to it) and the bad (which will get a junk rating). How they're able to make such a division escapes me, but they claim to know people who can do this and, naturally, they pay these people well. And, of course, the new packages need a rating from the firm's friends at Moody's etal, who extract their fee.
Why does the firm want to do this? They need to put up less capital as backing for the original crap. Somehow, the wand has reduced the firm's risk although the assets after the waving are the same as those before the waving.
And these guys don't need more regulation? What planet do our leaders live on?
Negligence, Not Fraud
Merriam-Webster defines negligence as failure to exercise the care that a reasonably prudent person would exercise in like circumstances. One would expect that a company that purports to rate securities should be reasonably prudent. Clearly, Moody's was not. Were they being prudent in replacing their chief compliance officer with the manager responsible for rating mortgage-backed securities?