Monday, June 30, 2014

Ho Hum! Another 7,550,000 GM Cars Recalled Today

Today's recall brings the number of GM cars recalled in the U.S. this year to 25,680,000. Again, most of them are being recalled for a faulty ignition switch. Recalls will now deduct $1.2 billion from second quarter earnings.

2003 CHEVROLET IMPALA

What's with the military?

They haven't won a war in sixty years. The budget exceeds that spent by most other countries combined. They seem to be discovering all sorts of indiscretions made by senior officers. They insist on funding weapons that don't work as advertised (or funds expended). The current VA fiasco. And now we get a story that the military hospitals (those used by active service personnel) have problems implementing basic systems to protect the life of their patients.

Essentially, the hospitals don't do much with regard to safety inspections, which are de rigeur for most hospitals in the U.S. These inspections are generated when patients unexpectedly die or suffer severe injuries. In the period 2011-2013 the military hospitals reported 239 unexpected deaths, yet they investigated only 100.

The hospitals seem to have a particular problem delivering babies. There are 50,000 babies born every year in the hospitals, but they are twice as likely to be injured during delivery as babies born elsewhere.

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Running out of water

The Agriculture Department characterizes three types of drought:

  • Severe - characterized by crop loss, frequent water shortages, and mandatory water use restrictions. Seven states - Texas, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Oklahoma and Kansas - had severe drought in more than half of their land. In some cases this condition has gone on for more than three years.
  • Extreme - characterized by major crop and pasture losses, as well as widespread water shortages. California and Oklahoma have had extreme drought on more than half of their land.
  • Exceptional - where crop and pasture loss is widespread, and shortages of well and reservoir water can lead to water emergencies. Oklahoma is the worst with 30% of its land so characterized.
What is being done?

Raising Money

ISIS can be considered a modern corporation in its money-raising efforts. Sure, they kidnap people for ransom, smuggle drugs and rob banks (their latest raised $400,000,000). But they also use Twitter to raise money as well as report on their progress in killing people and conquering territory. Their publication Al-Naba (The News) is aimed at donors to keep them active. And, naturally, they try to duplicate the charitable services of Hezbollah and Hamas.

They have also have taken control of resources like granaries and oil installations and are extorting “taxes” from businesses and selling off government property and equipment (an inventory that now includes American-made Humvees). 

A formidable opponent indeed!


Saturday, June 28, 2014

F-35 Fails Again


In July the F-35 will make its debut at an international air show in London. It's still having problems. Twice this month training flights have had to be cancelled, once because the plane caught fire, the other because of an oil leak.

The comedy continues.

We're not that good at Piaac either.

For years the OECD has been conducting tests around the world to assess the academic competency of 15-year-olders; the test is known as PISA. Readers will know that the U.S. does not do very well on these tests, which measure the average performance of students.

Now, the OECD has begun to measure the academic competency of the adult. This test is known as Piaac (Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies). We did not do too well here either. Here are some of the results of the latest test:

  • Tied for last place with Italy and Spain.
  • 18% Of U.S. adults with bachelor's degrees score at the top two levels, 24% of other countries do.
  • Eighth from the bottom in literacy.
Maybe we're just stupid.

Magic?

Friday, June 27, 2014

A few of the world trouble spots

Mapping the Middle East Post WWI

Another view of the question I raised a few days ago.

Secret Weapons and Tactics

Secrecy. That's what is happening in Massachusetts, where there is something called a law enforcement council, or LEC. One of the major functions of a LEC is to run the region's SWAT teams.  LECs also facilitate technology and information sharing and oversee other specialized units, such as crime scene investigators and computer crime specialists. LECs are funded by several police agencies in a given geographic area and overseen by an executive board, which is usually made up of police chiefs from member police departments.

I guess some LECs consider themselves as non-profit organizations and have, in fact, incorporated as 501(c)(3) organizations. Now, despite the fact that every aspect of a LEC is funded by the public as part of the city or town's police budget, some LECs have refused to supply information requested by the ACLU. They claim that 501(c)(3) status means that they’re private corporations, not government agencies. And therefore, they say they’re immune from open records requests.

What are they hiding?

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Trade Secrets?

 I guess charities are competitive operations. So, in some ways I can understand the Red Cross being unwilling to document to the public how it raised and spent over $300 million after Hurricane Sandy. That's why they claimed "trade secrets" when ProPublica filed a request that the charity do just that.

The Red Cross has not been very open about its fundraising activities with regard to major drives such as Hurricane Sandy, 9/11, Katrina, Haiti, etc. They claim "the American Red Cross would suffer competitive harm because its competitors would be able to mimic the American Red Cross's business model for an increased competitive advantage."

Looking at Drones

I don't know the origin of a panel that has been analyzing the use of drones, but the panel is made up of former senior intelligence and military officials. It has issued a report which essentially concludes that we are operating in the dark.

We have not yet done a cost-benefit analysis. We have given little thought as to what consequences might be spawned by this new way of waging war. What happens if other countries adopt a drone strategy?

The report concludes:
“There is no indication that a U.S. strategy to destroy has curbed the rise of Sunni Islamic extremism, deterred the establishment of Shia Islamic extremist groups or advanced long-term U.S. security interests.” 

Tracking Local SWAT Teams

Our government's hatred of drugs has been aided by the growth of local SWAT teams as part of our neighborhood police protection. More than half (62%) of all SWAT deployments are for the purpose of drug searches, and 79% were to search a person’s home with a search warrant—usually for drugs. The use of SWAT teams is at the discretion of the local police department as there is no oversight by the federal or state governments nor are there any standards as to when SWAT teams should be deployed.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Not for sale at the Post Office



From our Florida correspondent

Nasty education debt?

David Leonhardt uses a study by the Brookings Institution to argue that college debt is not the huge problem we think it is. The study asserts that the share of income that young adults are devoting to loan repayment has remained fairly steady over the last two decades. A detailed analysis of the numbers shows that only 7 percent of young-adult households with education debt have $50,000 or more of such debt, while 58 percent of such households have less than $10,000 in debt, and an additional 18 percent have between $10,000 and $20,000.

This is ironic given that the Sunday Times Magazine feature article was on the increasing college debt.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Critical or Partisan Thinking: The People and The Pundits

Correcting a mistake?

Is it possible that the current activity in Iraq is an attempt to correct the mistake made when Britain, without much logic or  knowledge of the peoples involved, manipulated the map to create Iraq as part of the settlement of WWI? For the past century Iraq has been a 'country' made up of three separate peoples. Perhaps, federation is the way to go.

House of One

That's what Berlin is calling a new building which will include a church, a mosque and a synagogue under one roof, like this.
Floorplan of The House of One
This may be the first time that all three religions occupy the same building at the same time. But, there remains the question as to which of the sects within each of these religions will occupy the House of One.

The year of the auto recall

In 2004 car makers recalled 30,800,000 vehicles in the U.S.  It looks like we will set a new record this year as we have already recalled more than 28 million vehicles in the United States this year and it's only June. By the way, that 28 million number represents about ten percent of the vehicles on the road. And with all the high tech stuff being part of the driving experience, do you think the number of recalls will decrease?

Sunday, June 22, 2014

She is really relaxed now

The photo below is of Miriam Burbank after she has died. Rather than being placed in a casket and viewed by visitors, Ms Burbank was displayed in what was a common position when she was alive - she's relaxing with a cigarette and a glass of wine, with a beer chaser. 



It is thought that such funeral displays began in this country in 1984 with the funeral of Willie Stokes Jr., a Chicago gambler known as the Wimp, who sat through his funeral services behind the wheel of a coffin made to look like a Cadillac Seville. The style is becoming more popular in Puerto Rico. Viewings there in recent years have included a paramedic displayed behind the wheel of his ambulance and, in 2011, a man dressed for his wake like Che Guevara, cigar in hand and seated Indian style.

I have questions as to the practicalities involved. Are these people buried in a casket or in their 'scenery'? Do visitors touch the deceased? Does the scene have to be refreshed?

Bill McKibben and Henry Paulson Agree

Both are convinced that we need to act now if we are to survive climate change. Both cite a study of the West Antarctic ice sheet that shows that water is eating away at this ice sheet. Couple this with the numerous reports of the Arctic seas melting. As this photo shows, you gotta problem, my friend.

mckibben_1-071014.jpg

Surprisingly, Paulson seems more anxious and results-driven than McKibben.  He compares the climate change crisis with the Great Recession and concludes we are making the same mistakes in that we are refusing to acknowledge that there is, in fact, a crisis. As with the Great Recession, we can't afford to keep ignoring that fact. Nor can we assume that other nations will act without some strong action by us. We must act now.

His initial action is a carbon tax. He admits that the details need to be worked out, but he seems to be of the mind that half a loaf is better than none. The tax would likely lead to innovation leading to technological benefits and jobs.

Key to Paulson's efforts is cooperation between the United State and China. As he says,
The key is cooperation between the United States and China — the two biggest economies, the two biggest emitters of carbon dioxide and the two biggest consumers of energy.When it comes to developing new technologies, no country can innovate like America. And no country can test new technologies and roll them out at scale quicker than China. 
His conclusion is worth quoting:
Climate change is the challenge of our time. Each of us must recognize that the risks are personal. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.

Controlling the Classroom

It's not an easy job teaching a bunch of young kids, especially when some of them have problems, either emotionally, intellectually or physically. But some schools do seem to go over the edge, e.g., pinning uncooperative children face down on the floor, locking them in dark closets and tying them up with straps, handcuffs, bungee cords or even duct tape. These 'techniques' were used more than 267,000 times nationwide in the 2012 school year, a ProPublica analysis of new federal data shows. Three-quarters of the students restrained had physical, emotional or intellectual disabilities. For a 180 day school year, that's about 1,400 kids a day.
One school highlighted in the article reported using holds on children 177 times—an average of almost once a school day—and isolation 559 times in the 2012 school year. Those numbers placed it among the top 50 schools in the country that reported using restraints and seclusions the most.

Montgomery County Public Schools in Virginia has not had similar problems, despite the fact that it stopped using restraints and seclusion more than two decades ago.

Friday, June 20, 2014

It's very complex

Ali Khedery looks at the number of factions involved in Iraq - and there a lot, none of which is Simon pure. The Sunnis have five groups and 6,000,000 defenders. The Shiites have nine groups and 15,000,000 Iraqis. It is a frightening and complex analysis. Khedery concludes:
As you can see, Iran has tens of thousands of loyal, capable, highly trained proxies available to them in Iraq, all of which were involved in attacking U.S. forces in Iraq during the war. Though the capabilities differ between these groups, all are loyal to Iran and continue to operate under IRGC-QF direction and guidance and will lead Iran's fight against ISIS and Sunni extremists as events unfold in Iraq. Many of these proxy groups are also integrated into Iraq's Security Forces (army and police) which makes them more than just a militia. They are a force multiplier with quasi-Iraqi governmental status fighting not only on behalf of Iran, but fully sanctioned by the Iraqi government.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Why not tap federal disaster funds?

Another huge fire out West becomes a media article at least twice a month now. In the 20th century we would lose less than 5,000,000 acres each year to these huge fires. Now, it's more like10 million acres annually. These fires wind up sterilizing the soil and leading to extensive post-fire flooding because there is no vegetation left to check rainwater runoff.

It does not look as things will be getting better. Winters are getting shorter and warmer; summers are hotter and dryer. Therefore, we have a longer fire season. The Western forests have become more vulnerable; they are dense, lack species diversity and are overpopulated with older, diseased trees susceptible to epidemics like the bark beetle infestation that has left behind 40 million acres of dead trees. Dense underbrush and dead trees are fuel for extreme wildfires. And, with our typical belief that nothing bad can happen to us, nearly 40 percent of recent development in the West has been in wildland fire zones.

The Forest Service now spends almost  50% of its budget on fighting these fires, but it is not enough. Lately, much of this money comes at the price of other necessary activities. A bill will come before Congress to change this situation; The bill would draw money from federal disaster funds when firefighting costs reached 70 percent of the 10-year average. 


It's a much more rational approach to a basic problem.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Citicorp's Dark Pools

Pam Martens describes some of the dark pools Citicorp uses. It's a fairly complex subject but essentially it is a way of trading stocks without going through a regulated stock exchange. Citi is really into this activity. 

The latest FINRA report shows that in one week Liquifi, a dark pool owned by a unit of Citigroup, traded 5,865,427 shares of stock; another dark pool owned by a unit of Citigroup, LavaFlow, traded 98,604,159 shares of stock; and Citi Cross, also owned by a unit of Citigroup, traded 37,547,262 shares of stock. In short, Citigroup routed 92.23 percent of its customers’ orders in New York Stock Exchange Euronext traded stocks – to itself. 

Four dark pools - Automated Trading Desk, Renaissance, Tradebot, and Getco – accounted for roughly 25 to 30 percent of all stock trading in the United States. 

These dark pools are not restricted to this country.FINRA records show that Citigroup is operating 48 foreign firms trading securities.

A strange definition of investigation

U.S. Investigative Services (USIS) investigates the loyalty and integrity of applicants for sensitive federal jobs. It doesn't look like they do a good job, the Snowden case being one of their investigations. One of their employees was able to review and clear 15,152 cases in a single month during fiscal 2013. That works out to about 1.5 cases per minute.

Worse than that is the agency's policy of “auto-release.” Here, they have developed software which 'completes' application reviews in thirty days; complete is enclosed in quotes because the investigation may or may not actually be complete. The agency defends auto-release as “a necessary fail-safe to eliminate workflow backlogs and move work along in deference to timeliness mandates”. I wish I could eliminate backlogs so easily.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Another 3,000,000 defective GM cars

It's June and time for GM to recall more cars, this time 3,360,000. And it's essentially the same problem: keys that could suddenly turn off engines and deactivate air bags.

This recall bumps its recall-related charges to $700 million in the second quarter, an increase of $300 million from an earlier projection. This brings the total cost of recalls to $2 billion to date this year. Some employees will also feel the cost as GM has fired 15 employees, including a vice president for regulatory affairs and at least three senior corporate lawyers. G.M. has also disciplined five other workers.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Taking the express lane down

A Holy War

That's Ali Khedery's opinion with regards to the current battles in Iraq. He thinks that there could be a global holy war between Sunnis and Shiites unless actions are taken now. If that happens, 40% of the global energy supply could be in jeopardy.

I had never heard of Mr. Khedery, but he certainly has extensive experience in Iraq. He has worked for the U.S. State and Defense departments, where he served as special assistant to five American ambassadors to Iraq and as senior adviser to three commanders of U.S. Central Command.  He was the longest continuously serving American official in Iraq. He's worth listening to.

In his opinion ISIS has not operated alone. It was part of a full-blown Sunni insurgency consisting of ISIS, Sunni Arab Baath party elements from both Syria and Iraq, and the Iraqi and Syrian Sunni tribes that all joined to cooperate on beating back the Iranians and their proxies in Baghdad and Damascus.

In 2010 at Ambassador Jeffreys' order Khedery met in Jordan with a council of Iraq's top Sunni leaders; his job was to tell them that they needed to join Prime Minister Maliki's government. The Sunni response:
"We will join the government in Baghdad, but we will not allow Iraq to be ruled by Iran and its proxies. We will not live under a Shiite theocracy.  We will not continue to accept political, economic, and social marginalization under Maliki and the Dawa party.  The United States gave us assurances during the Awakening that they would stand with us if we turned our arms against al Qaeda and joined the political process.  We devastated al Qaeda alongside the U.S. Army; we participated in the elections; and we won.  We want our share in the New Iraq, not to be treated as second class citizens.  If this does not happen, we will take up arms again, and this time we will retake Baghdad or we will burn it to the ground."
Needless to say, none of their goals was met by the Maliki government, which now controls less than half of its "sovereign" territory.

Khedery thinks we must try to contain this sectarian fire by restarting the political process in Baghdad and forcing Iraqis back to the constitution which we helped them write. Maliki has to go and very soon. A global coalition needs to be formed to deal with this highly flammable situation.

Sunday, June 15, 2014

The Emperor's New Clothes

You've got to stand out

In today's world where getting into the 'best' college becomes the mission of the high school junior and her parents, much more emphasis is being placed on the essay. There is even a workshop students can attend so that they can create the perfect essay. It's four days of intense writing and it only costs $14,000 plus hotel and transportation costs.

Frank Bruni has a funny column wherein he recites some of the odder topics students select for their essay: eating disorders, sexual abuse, self-mutilation, domestic violence, alcoholism, drug addiction. He highlights a few of the subjects:
  • a boy's genitalia, and how he was under-endowed,
  • ‘my father’s alcoholism’,
  • ‘my parents got divorced because my dad is gay’,
  • a boy who considers himself one of the world’s great Casanovas.

Friday, June 13, 2014

Causes of Death in U.S.: 1900 vs. 2010

The 10 most common things that kill Americans: 1900 vs 2010

The World Cup Kickoff

The kickoff was performed by a young guy whose lower trunk is completely paralyzed. He did it using a robotic exoskeleton created by a team of more than 150 researchers led by Brazilian neuroscientist, Dr Miguel Nicolelis, a leading figure in the field of brain-machine interfaces. The scientists seek a future "in which people with paralysis may abandon the wheelchair and literally walk again".

Patient in exoskeleton

Needless to say, the exoskeleton is quite complex. The driver is a cap placed on the patient's head to pick up brain signals and relay them to a computer in the exoskeleton's backpack, which then decodes the signals and sends them to the legs.

The exoskeleton uses flexible printed circuit boards, each containing pressure, temperature and speed sensors. The circuit boards are applied on the soles of the feet and allow the patient to receive tactile stimulation when walking with the exoskeleton. When the robotic suit starts to move and touches the ground, signals are transmitted to an electronic vibration device on the patient's arm, which stimulates their skin.

After lots of practice, the brain starts associating the movements of the legs with the vibration in the arm. In theory, the patient should start to develop the sensation that they have legs and that they are walking.

So what do we do about it?

'On Background"

What is so secret about the EPA's Clean Power Plant Proposal? The proposal, introduced last week with much fanfare, is designed to cut carbon dioxide emissions from existing coal plants by as much as 30 percent by 2030. However, the change is based on 2005 levels, where many scientists think the base years should be the 1990s. Nonetheless, this posting is about government secrecy; in this case providing information "on background", rather than in an open press conference.

In announcing the proposal the EPA was very chary in identifying the people who spoke about the proposal. Many of those were "scientific experts", but reporters had no way of verifying the experts' credentials. If reporters are to get at the truth, one needs to know who is speaking and be able to question that person. 

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Colbert on Prisons

Too big and complex to preserve evidence

The Electronic Frontier Foundation has been challenging the NSA’s warrantless collection of Americans’ private data. In the case the EFF has been challenged to ensure that the NSA preserves evidence, kind of a basic task in most court cases.  But the NSA, being the behemoth it is, argues that "Attempts to fully comply with the Court’s June 5 Order would be a massive and uncertain endeavor because the NSA may have to shut down all databases and systems that contain Section 702 information in an effort to comply."
The NSA, in other words, now says that it cannot comply with the rules that apply to any other party before a court — the very rules that ensure legal accountability — because it is too big.

Things are getting worse for the kids

Thomas Edsall has a lengthy op-ed reporting on some studies of mid-level, mid-pay jobs. Between 1980 and 2000 holders of these mid-level jobs found that the jobs available were becoming fewer and fewer unless they were in technology. These jobs required better reasoning ability, greater creativity and stronger management skills. As shown by this figure, the cognitive level demanded by these employment tasks increased from 1980 to 2000, but then dropped considerably.

What is happening now because of this is that college graduates are forced to take jobs beneath their level of educational training, moving into clerical and service positions instead of into finance and high tech. Which results in those without college degrees having to replace their service and clerical jobs taken by college students. Eventually leading to those at the bottom of the skill level becoming unemployed.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Not exactly a pretty picture

This is the executive summary of the State Department's report "Country Reports on Terrorism". It was published in April 2014.

Key Terrorism Trends in 2013
 --The terrorist threat continued to evolve rapidly in 2013, with an increasing number of groups around the world – including both AQ affiliates and other terrorist organizations – posing a threat to the United States, our allies, and our interests.
--As a result of both ongoing worldwide efforts against the organization and senior leadership losses, AQ core’s leadership has been degraded, limiting its ability to conduct attacks and direct its followers. Subsequently, 2013 saw the rise of increasingly aggressive and autonomous AQ affiliates and like-minded groups in the Middle East and Africa who took advantage of the weak governance and instability in the region to broaden and deepen their operations.
--AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahiri experienced difficulty in maintaining influence throughout the AQ organization and was rebuffed in his attempts to mediate a dispute among AQ affiliates operating in Syria, with ISIL publicly dissociating its group from AQ. Guidance issued by Zawahiri in 2013 for AQ affiliates to avoid collateral damage was routinely disobeyed, notably in increasingly violent attacks by these affiliates against civilian populations.
--Syria continued to be a major battleground for terrorism on both sides of the conflict and remains a key area of longer-term concern. Thousands of foreign fighters traveled to Syria to join the fight against the Asad regime – with some joining violent extremist groups – while Iran, Hizballah, and other Shia militias provided a broad range of critical support to the regime. The Syrian conflict also empowered ISIL to expand its cross-border operations in Syria, and dramatically increase attacks against Iraqi civilians and government targets in 2013.
--Terrorist violence in 2013 was increasingly fueled by sectarian motives, marking a worrisome trend, particularly in Syria, but also in Lebanon and Pakistan.
--Terrorist groups engaged in a range of criminal activity to raise needed funds, with kidnapping for ransom remaining the most frequent and profitable source of illicit financing. Private donations from the Gulf also remained a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly for those operating in Syria.
--“Lone offender” violent extremists also continued to pose a serious threat, as illustrated by the April 15, 2013, attacks near the Boston Marathon finish line, which killed three and injured approximately 264 others.
--Many other terrorist groups not tied to AQ were responsible for attacks in 2013, including the People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C), which carried out a number of high-profile attacks last year, including a February 1 suicide plot targeting the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey.

Carte Blanche for FIFA

Maybe she's right

This is something I wrote in April 2007. I don't think there has been much change.
My wife thinks that I'm turning into an angry old man. I hope that I am not, but sometimes I do get a tad irate. For example, the media furor over the sad events at Virginia Tech illustrate quite clearly that we are becoming a nation that prefers to live in a dream world where everything is or should be wonderful.
Fortunately, I've been away for the past few days and have had little access to the 'news', but from what I've seen, heard and read about the killings there is a subtext to this 'news': these events were preventable if - the college administration acted faster, guns were banned, immigrants were not allowed here,..... You name it; something bad like this does not happen in our world.
There is always a reason as to why bad things should not happen. But, son of a gun, bad things continue to happen. A child will die from cancer no matter what the doctors try; an old man will develop Alzheimer's; thousands of people will die in automobile accidents; someone will kill friends and strangers. These things have happened since man emerged from the slime and will continue to happen until he goes back. I am not saying that we should not use our brains and talents to try to prevent bad things from happening. However, we cannot always succeed.
This belief - if only something were different bad things would not happen to us - is predicated on the assumption that somehow we are entitled to live a dream, even though we reside on a planet that is riven with risk and difficulties.
The belief is manifested in many aspects of life. Everyone should get a college degree, not necessarily an education, but a degree. To me, this makes as much sense as everyone should be a top notch athlete. Not everyone needs or wants a college degree. Many of us can use our native talents fully without four years at an institution of higher learning.
In our world everyone should do whatever it takes to be beautiful - shorten your nose, puff up your lips, remove part of your digestive tract, spends thousands on personal trainers.
In our world, everyone should own a house. You can lie about your income and your assets but you can find some greedy mortgage broker who will get you into a house.
In our world, we can ignore our individual share, $144,000, of the national debt or the fact that we keep setting record trade deficits.
In our world, we can survive and prosper without considering the rising power of China and India.
My wife may be right. I'd better stop now.

My kid will be a star athlete

I've written fairly often about the current state of child athletics, where it seems that many parents devote a lot of time and money to fostering their child's athletic abilities, primarily in one sport. It's quite different from when my kids grew up, where the sport they played depended on the season. David Epstein has a must-read op-ed as to why this over-focus on one sport is not good for the child.

Epstein starts his article with this classic example of today's childhood athletics:
One New York City soccer club proudly advertises its development pipeline for kids under age 6, known as U6. The coach-picked stars, “poised for elite level soccer,” graduate to the U7 “pre-travel” program. Parents, visions of scholarships dancing in their heads, enable this by paying for private coaching and year-round travel.
Epstein asserts that several studies have shown that those kids who do become top athletes later in life did not, in fact, specialize at an early age. For example, Steve Nash, the NBA all-star, did not pick up a basketball until he was 13.

He also contends that the focus on a single sport played on adult-size fields has led to more serious injuries, such as stress fractures in their backs, arms or legs; damage to elbow ligaments; and cracks in the cartilage in their joints.

Monday, June 09, 2014

A first step?

Twenty years ago Michael Lewis was the lead attorney in the class action suit against the tobacco companies. He was able to get thirteen tobacco companies to ante up $368.5bn to cover the cost of treating illnesses related to smoking in almost 40 US states. Can he do it again with regards to High Frequency Trading (HFT)? He and 13 other lawyers have filed a suit against 13 stock exchanges and subsidiaries.

Will he be as successful?

Police becoming soldiers

For about twenty years now local police forces have taken advantage of a military transfer programs authorized by Congress. Basically, the program allows the military to give all sorts of weapons - M-16 rifles, grenade launchers, silencers and more — to local police departments. Since 2009, police departments have received tens of thousands of machine guns; nearly 200,000 ammunition magazines; thousands of pieces of camouflage and night-vision equipment; and hundreds of silencers, armored cars, MRAPs (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Armored Vehilles), planes and helicopters.

Police SWAT teams are now deployed tens of thousands of times each year, increasingly for routine jobs. Some, especially in larger cities, have used federal grant money to buy armored cars and other tactical gear.

Can the police no longer do their jobs unless they are armed as well as our military?

Why is college so expensive today?

When I went to college in the mid-twentieth century, there were still many of we students who were not there primarily to get a job. Sure, we hoped we would be employed after the four years, but we were there primarily to learn about life, the accomplishments and difficulties of those who had gone before, the beauty and sadness of the arts, the mysteries of science, the ways of business, etc. While tuition was expensive, several of us in my lower middle class inner city neighborhood could have scraped together the funds needed without signing on for years and years of debt.

Now, of course, that is all history. The cost of a college education is astronomical today, as annual tuition has increased by more than 1,200 percent over the last 30 years. This is far more than such items as food, housing, cars, gasoline, TVs, etc.. Tuition has increased at a rate double that of exorbitant medical costs. Few investments have kept pace.

I agree with Thomas Frank that the primary reason for the astronomical increase is that colleges now think of themselves as businesses whose role is to become market leaders and make good money for those running the institutions. Colleges have brainwashed students that they go to college to make money in the long run; of course, to do so the students have to invest in the short term.

Costs of the Great Recession

Gavyn Davies says 'Let's look at opportunity costs.' He acknowledges that several economies have now returned to their previous peak levels of output. However, if you look at the trendliness that had been established prior to the onset of the Great Recsssion, the output of developed economies as a whole remains about 12 per cent below these trendlines.


Davies also follows up on my recent post re the job market. Again, looking at what might have been if the trend held, we need an extra 6.9 million jobs before the job market can be said to be back to normal.

Sunday, June 08, 2014

Mill Pond, West Tisbury, Martha's Vineyard, June 2014

The job market still sucks

Ben Casselman takes a hard look at the job numbers recently released and concludes things are still not very good. Here are some of the highlights.

  • We finally topped the jobs number of December 2007, the first month of the recession; 138,500,000 non-farm jobs in May 2014 versus 138,400,000 in December 2007. This 6+ years to recover was the slowest jobs recovery since WWII.
  • Unemployment is still weak: nearly 10 million unemployed workers in the U.S., more than a third of whom have been out of work for more than six months.
  • More than 7 million Americans are stuck in part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time work.
  • When adjusted for inflation , average hourly earnings are lower now than when the recession ended. Weekly wages haven’t done much better, in part because companies aren’t increasing employees’ hours.
  • Government did not do much other than cut employment. Over the past three years it has cut more than 7,000 jobs per month. And our infrastructure keeps crumbling.


Friday, June 06, 2014

What is a crime?

One would think that most violence would be considered criminal, but it depends on where you live and whether you are male or female. The U.N. estimates that more than 600 million women live in countries where domestic violence is not considered a crime, countries such as Russia, Algeria, Pakistan and most Muslim countries.

Part of the issue is reporting violence to the authorities. In this country the Justice Department asserts that "Approximately one-fifth of all rapes, one-quarter of all physical assaults, and one-half of all stalkings perpetrated against female respondents by intimates were reported to the police. The majority of victims who did not report their victimization to the police thought the police would not or could not do anything on their behalf."

There were 869 of 'honor killings' recorded in Pakistan in 2013 alone. Many of these honor killings take place in broad daylight in a public place with police present.

This is the 21st century, isn't it?

Jim Martin relives D-Day

The Bergdahl Deal: A Good Deal?

Looking at the deal from strictly a moral position, I'd have to say it was a good deal. However, I'm not so sure how good a deal it was when you consider (a) the subject, (b) the announcement and (c) the costs.

  • The subject is clearly not your average soldier; it looks as though he had walked off his post more than once prior to his final leave taking. 
  • Obama's 'celebration' in the Rose Garden assumed that Bergdahl's walking away would not become public, a truly stupid assumption given that the Bergdahl issue had been studied for a few years. 
  • While Israel freed over 1,000 Palestinians for one Israeli soldier, the release of five fairly high up and definitely dangerous terrorists seems a high price to pay for someone like Bergdahl.

Thursday, June 05, 2014

D-Day 2014

D-Day 1944

Juxtapositions

Stiglitz on Taxes

Joe Stiglitz has published another paper on "Reforming Taxation to Promote Growth and Equity". Note that he is not focused on budget reduction and deficits. This country has to get back on the growth track; we have to bring back the days when the middle class actually benefits from economic growth. There are many ways to promote growth. Modifying our tax system is one way, and an important way.

He has seven suggestions:

  • Adjust corporate income tax rates so that companies are incentivized to invest in innovative and job creating activities in the U.S.
  • Reduce corporate welfare, such as bailouts and subsidies.
  • Devise special taxes for the financial world.
  • Higher tax rates for monopolies such as the cable companies.
  • Do a better job on taxing multi-nationals.
  • Tax those firms negatively impacting the environment.
  • Make dividends tax-deductible.



Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Don't do stupid shit

That's a quote from Obama when talking about his foreign policy approach to reporters on Air Force One on his recent trip to Asia. David Rothkopf takes apart this "policy" in a fairly lengthy article. As Rothkopf sees it, this is just another step down from the early days of the Obama rise, days when he was praised for his speeches at Cairo, Prague, the Nobel Peace Prize. 

Rothkopf is terribly disappointed with Obama and proceeds to take apart many of the foreign policies of the Obama administration: the Afghanistan 'surge', the growth of the NSA, the Syria fiasco that was bailed out by Russia, lack of planning re Libya, focus on al Qaeda and ignoring the rise of other terrorist organizations, failing to reach a decision re Egypt, the celebration of the Berghdal transfer.


Measured in lives

The movie "Philomena" discussed St, Mary's, a Catholic home for unmarried mothers. An historian, Catherine Corless, has spent a number of years studying the death records for the home. Her conclusion is that 796 children, from newborns to eight-year-olds, were deposited in a grave near the home during the 35 years it operated from 1925 to 1961. The children died from malnutrition and infectious diseases, such as measles and TB. It's somewhat ironic that the mass grave was a former septic tank.

Monday, June 02, 2014

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Sunday, June 01, 2014

June Is Bustin' Out All Over

From another era

21st century Black Sox?

Have professional soccer matches been fixed? That's clearly the conclusion of the NY Times and FIFA. FIFA has been rather guarded in their report; they found that there was a match-rigging syndicate (Football 4 U International) that had been able to entice referees to throw games. However, FIFA did not officially accuse anyone of match fixing or bar anyone from the sport as a result of those disputed matches. Part of the problem is that there are countries whose soccer association is financially shaky, in administrative disarray and politically divided. They are ripe for a bribe.

Europol has also looked into the situation and has said last year that there were 680 suspicious matches played globally from 2008 to 2011, including World Cup qualifying matches and games in some of Europe’s most prestigious leagues and tournaments. That seems like a lot to me.