A Hole in the World of Financial Regulation

And it's a big hole. It's the lack of regulation in a key area - banking - of such organizations as investment banks, money market players and many of the large securities firms. These are the firms managing your 401k or your other investments.

The government backs the money you have in the typical commercial bank so that if it fails you'll get your money back, at least up to $250,000. You are relying on the collateral these organizations hold should they fail - and we saw the quality of that collateral and the management of those organizations in the current Great Recession.

Unless something is done to control these organizations better, we'll eventually hve a repeat of the current situation. Mark Thoma says we should start by setting standards for the collateral these organizations must have.

How Long?

Here's what Petraeus is quoted as saying in the Woodward book: “You have to recognize that I don’t think you win this war. I think you keep fighting. You have to stay after it. This is the kind of fight we’re in for the rest of our lives and probably our kids’ lives.” Courtesy of George Wilson.

Of course you agree with this common sense - common in the asylum.

Hell on Earth

Maybe Gaza is not the worst place to be, but it's close. WHO says that "74 percent of children aged 9-12 months are anaemic, up from 65 percent in 2009, as are another 32 percent of children aged 7-15 years, and 45 percent of pregnant women in their first months of pregnancy". Unemployment has been as high as 65%. 80% of the people live off food aid as they earn $2 a day if they're lucky. Half of the farms have been destroyed and fishing is not exactly great. So, where does the food come from? That's a major, major problem. Be thankful for what you have.

BP Is Totally Upfront About The Disaster

If you believe that, you probably still believe in Santa Claus. ProPublica and the Washington Post have a number of questions as to the completeness and accuracy of BP's report of the oil spill. The report was produced without examining the rig, the blowout preventer or the cement that sealed the well. One of the conclusions BP drew was that others were to blame for a good deal of the problem.

More Bad News About Rating Agencies

The beat goes on. Now we hear that Moody's etal ignored several situations where securities did not meet the underwriting criteria the Wall St. firms claimed. Yet, fearful that they would lose fees if they gave a true rating to the securities, the rating agencies said everything was okay, for they operated in the land of Lake Woebegone.

Slowly it happens

Finally, Pakistan has registered a strong protest about our pursuing the Taliban into Pakistan. Of course, we claim that we were acting in self-defense. And, maybe we were, but we are getting closer and closer to another escalation of the war.

Not Good for Business

Image via Wikipedia

It sounds crass and unfeeling I know. But can you imagine the PR problem Segway has? The owner of the company has died. He was killed in a fall from a cliff in England. It's likely that the accident occurred while he was riding his guess what? You got it. His Segway.

Mitchell Heisman - dead at 35

"Every word, every thought, and every emotion come back to one core problem: life is meaningless. The experiment in nihilism is to seek out and expose every illusion and every myth, wherever it may lead, no matter what, even if it kills us.’’ That's from Mitchell Heisman's manuscript, "Suicide Note", which is exactly that. After he finished writing this 1000+ page manuscript, he donned a white tuxedo, with white shoes, a white tie, and white socks, went to Memorial Church on the Harvard campus and shot himself in the head. He was 35 years old and had spent the last five years writing his manuscript.

His reason: “If life is truly meaningless and there is no rational basis for choosing among fundamental alternatives, then all choices are equal and there is no fundamental ground for choosing life over death.’

Is the world better off without him? Judging from the Boston Globe article, I doubt it.

Ike Speaks

This is another quote from "Washington Rules". This time it's Dwight Eisenhower speaking:

The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement.

We pay for a single fighter plane with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.

This is, I repeat, the best way of life to be found on the road the world has been taking.

This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.

Ike spoke these words in 1953. What has changed?

Wrong Again

A year-and-a-half ago I wrote about the hope that Gates would use the knowledge and experience he gained with the CIA to convince Obama of the futility of throwing more troops into the quagmire that Afghanistan has been for many invaders over many years. Whether he tried or not, it's clear that there has been no change from the Bush years.

Contractors Die, Too

As we well know, our army of professionals needs a lot of backup. In the old days this backup was performed by fellow soldiers. Today the backup in Iraq and Afghanistan is done by civilians we employ; many - perhaps most - of them are not Americans. Since the wars began, 5,531 soldiers and 2,008 civilians have been killed. I suppose we should be thankful in some sense as these 2,008 (mostly not Americans) would probably have been American military deaths in the old days

Analyzing the Tax Cuts

David Cay Johnston has a quite comprehensive analysis of the Bush tax cuts. It's a relatively complex read but his titles of the tables used in the analysis tell most of the story for those of us who are not tax wonks:

• 2008 Average Incomes Fell Well Below 2000 Level
• More Taxpayers, Less Revenue
• 2007 to 2008: Fewer Jobs, Less Money (Mostly)
• High-Income Paying Zero Tax 1998-2008
• 2008: Fewer Jobs, Lower Pay (With Exceptions in Bold)

Fast Food Aficionado?

If you are, you will enjoy this from the Boston Globe.

Documents Must Be Signed...

in the presence of a notary public and be accurate. Could you sign 10,000 such documents in a normal work month of 8-hour days? If you didn't take lunch or breaks, you could do so if you averaged 1 minute per document. Doesn't sound right, does it?

Yet, that's what workers for GMAC Mortgage had to do with regards to foreclosure documents. Once this information became public GMAC Mortgage stopped evictions in 23 states because they were afraid their cases would be rejected by the courts.

What would GMAC Mortgage have done if the information hadn't become public?

Fulbright: 1966

That's when he wrote "The Arrogance of Power". Forty-four years later Fulbright is being quoted in a book I'm reading, "Washington Rules" by Andrew Bacevich. Here are some thoughts Fulbright had in the 20th century:

• "What I do question is the ability of the United States... to go into a small, alien, undeveloped Asian nation and create stability where there is chaos, the will to fight where there is defeatism, democracy where there is no tradition of it, and honest government where corruption is almost a way of life." 
• "I think the world has endured about all it can of the crusades of high-minded men bent on the regeneration of the human race."
• "Maybe we are not really cut out for the job of spreading the gospel of democracy. Maybe it would profit us to concentrate on our own democracy instead of trying to inflict our own particular version of it" on others.
• "If America has a service to perform in the world, it is in large part the service of her own example."
• "A nation immersed in foreign affairs is expending its capital, human as well as material."
• It is "unnatural and unhealthy for a nation to be engaged in global crusades for some principle or ideal while neglecting the needs of its own people."
• "Bellicosity is a mark of weakness and self-doubt rather than of strength and self-assurance."

Do these thoughts have any relevancy in the early years of the 21st century?

Returning to Nature

Is it the media? Or, are animals moving into man's life in a more direct way? I've been fascinated by the reporting of crocodiles and alligators in various parts of the country. This week it's snakes. In bucolic Cambridge this 4-foot boa constrictor turned up in someone's first floor apartment

And in the Big Apple this 3 foot corn snake was able to appear in a toilet on the 19th floor.

An Obligation?

According to Obama's aunt, we have an obligation to her although she entered this country illegally. In an interview on a local tv channel, she said,“If I come as an immigrant, you have the obligation to make me a citizen.’’ Another quote from the interview, “I didn’t take advantage of the system. The system took advantage of me.’’ What planet is this woman on? What will Obama's enemies make of this?

Who is USAID Aiding?

One group they are not aiding is we taxpayers. The work they oversee in Afghanistan may be aiding some Afghans. But it is costing a lot of money for the work done there by USAID contractors. The contractors are profiting handsomely but, in the case of at least one contractor, Louis Berger Group, they may be profiting at our expense by over-billing and doing shoddy work. Some say the over-billing goes back to the 1990's. But still USAID continues to hire them.

Don't Even Say The Word

The word being 'mosque' or 'Islam' or 'Muslim'. In the last century it was 'Catholic' or 'Pope'. What is wrong with some people? Why are they so insecure? Even in the rich town of Wellesley you have these people. As in many New England towns, the Wellesley schools offer a course on world religions. Most of these courses involve visits to the houses of worship of the religions studied. Well, Islam is a world religion, perhaps it has the most members. So, the students visited the mosque when a service was being held. Some of the kids knelt when the prayers were being said. A parent who was chaperoning the trip recorded this and gave it to a group called "Americans for Peace and Justice". Then the brouhaha followed.

Two qualifiers:

1. Where are the moderate Muslims who can actually make a coherent case for their cause? There is as much coherence in their cause as in that of the major religions.
2. The teachers were probably remiss in not specifying beforehand what the modes of conduct should have been.

In this country we have always had people who hate differences. Why do we give them such notice?

Advice and Assistance

That's what our troops in Iraq are now there to do - provide advice and assistance to the Iraqis. I guess that is being done although how advice and assistance is defined is another matter. McClatchy reports on three cases of "advice and assistance" in the past two weeks and it seems that we have a very broad definition of those terms.

In one case the Iraqis could not defeat 25 insurgents without our help. In a second case, we were along on a raid which resulted in the killing of a child and injuring of a 90-year-old woman; the raid has been the subject of protests. In a third case insurgents were able to penetrate an Iraqi military base and kill some of the occupants before our troops killed the invaders.

Yes, we're told it is early days. How long will we be told this?

Tomorrow's Elections

Tomorrow, Afghans go to the polls to elect members to their lower house of the National Assembly. Unlike this country there are a heck of a lot of people running for office - 2,000 candidates for 249 seats. Wouldn't it be nice if we could have so many willing to run for office? And we don't have the security and other problems Afghans face.

Robert Lamb of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has four "Critical Questions" about the election:

1. Is much violence expected on Election Day?
2. Will these elections be free and fair or marred by fraud?
3. Given these challenges, do elections in Afghanistan represent real democratic progress, or are they just a bone that entrenched interests throw to Western diplomats?
4. How many women are running for office? How many are expected to win?

Read his answers. He is not giddingly optimistic.

Goals, Priorities, Planning, Evaluating?

Did the House of Representatives actually pass a bill to require federal agencies to define their high priority goals, develop plans to reach these goals, periodically measure progress toward the goals and modify the plans as required? It amazes me to say they actually did. Why was there no mention in the media of what could be an almost revolutionary change in the way our government works? Yes, there's no sex, no violence, no trillions of dollars but I think there was no mention because the House passed the legislation unanimously. When was the last time that happened with a bill of substance? Our media vastly prefers disagreement.

Will the Senate have the courage to even consider the issue? Stay tuned.

The Half-a-Loaf Management Style

You can't say that Obama has been a very active, very determined president. He is clearly a moderate and a relatively weak one at that. Witness his appointment of Elizabeth Warren as an assistant to the president for the purpose of organizing the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection. It would have been more in keeping with the wishes of most of those who voted for him had he actually named her the director. But this would have really upset Big Business and Tim. Heaven forfend that this should happen!

Movied Out

Here on the Vineyard it's tough to see a really good movie. Most of the movies are your regular much-advertised mediocre Hollywood movies.

I hadn't been to the movies here for maybe a year, so I decided to take in the Martha's Vineyard International Film Festival this past weekend. It certainly was not full of Hollywood movies; most of the movies required sub-titles. Maybe I've become jaded in my dotage, but the five movies I saw were really not spectacular in any sense, most were too long and boring. The best was a 20-minute short, God of Love.

Next up was a trip to the local movie house which showed an American but not really Hollywood movie, Get Low. It has received very good reviews and really deserved them. I'd be surprised if Robert Duvall does not win an Oscar for his performance. But he was not the only good part of the movie. The story was adult, the filming meshed with the story. The other actors, Bill Murray, Sissy Spaceck and a host of actors unknown to me, were very good. See it if you can.

By all means don't see The American. This film made absolutely no sense to me or my son, who theorized that George Clooney took the role because he wanted a vacation. While the story was based on a novel, the adaptation missed the plot if the novel had one. This is certainly a strong candidate for worst film of the year.

When do we start addressing our infrastructure problem?

Last week's explosion in San Bruno is another warning that we have to get our infrastructure under control. One piece of this infrastructure - gas pipelines (the cause of the San Bruno explosion) - seems to be crying out for help. More than 60% of our gas pipelines are more than 40 years old; the San Bruno line was 50 years old and at the end of its useful life.

In the past 20 years there have been 2,840 "significant gas pipeline accidents"; that's more than 2 a week. More than 900 of these accidents have resulted in deaths or serious injury. Isn't it time to get serious about our infrastructure?

First Problem I've Seen With The Healthcare Bill

It was obvious that the process of creating and passing of the healthcare bill was not something that would be considered one of our leaders' finest moments. Our leaders are convinced that many companies are cheating on their income taxes. So, they added a provision to the healthcare bill requiring businesses to file a 1099 form for each company whom they pay the princely sum of $600 per year. So, if you have a problem with your plumbing system that costs you $600 to fix, you need to list the plumber's name address and tax id on a 1099 and send it to the IRS. Ditto for just about anything else - the phone, office supplies, gas, you name it.

In the 21st century $600 is truly chicken feed. Most businesses have quite a number of vendors to whom they pay $600 a year. To complete a form for each of these vendors is truly a make work project.

Things Ain't What They Used To Be...

In Afghanistan, if you can believe the NY Times they are worse.

Travel is extremely hazardous. Unarmed government employees are at risk when traveling in 30% of Afghanistan's districts. Many districts are considered too dangerous to visit.

The Taliban are more ubiquitous. They have moved into the north. Their 'activities' have increased almost 50% over last August.

Things are not that great in Iraq, either. Deaths of Iraqi civilians have gone from 300 in August 2009 to 400 this August; security service deaths have doubled to 80. Oil production is down from 2,500,000 barrels a day to 2,300,000. Electric production is about the same: 6,400 megawatts vs. 6,500 a year ago.

Why are we in either place?

How to lose votes

Tomorrow is the Massachusetts primary election. With the exception of a couple of races, there are few contests. But, those which are contested have demonstrated once more the risks you run by being overly aggressive in trying to win votes. For example, there is a battle for the State Senate seat for our district. In the Democratic primary most of the political leaders on the Island are backing one person, Dan Wolf. Based on his campaign literature, Mr. Wolf has a lot going for him. However, in the past week I've received at least three, if not more, mail solicitations from him, all of which carry basically the same message. This plethora of marketiana does not encourage me to cast my vote for Mr. Wolf. The truly 'modern' politician tries to get your vote via the telephone. This, I think, is a major tactical error. Why would I vote for a recorded voice that interrupts my dinner or whatever it is I'm engrossed in, such as writing this blog?

Clearly, this country has a real problem in attracting capable people to run the various levels of government. We need to find a better way of selecting our leaders. The lottery system put forward by my friend, Norm, is looking better every day.

Shakespeare and the Great Recession

John Kay of the Financial Times makes the case that, in his plays about kings and princes, Shakespeare was also describing our financial world. To wit,

At the medieval courts Shakespeare described, the exercise of power was not a means to an end, it was itself the end. Kings and barons sought principally to extend their territory. If they occasionally claimed that the purpose was to bring the benefits of their wise rule to a wider public, the assertion was little more than a smokescreen for personal ambition. The rulers aimed to be exalted as rulers of wider domains and to levy taxes on ever more peasants. The political and economic environment has been transformed. But human nature has not, and the factors that drive powerful men today are little different from those that drove them five centuries ago.

The fine robes of Shakespeare’s princely characters were paid for by the work of the peasantry, the men and women who tilled the fields and garnered the crops. Their labours yielded revenues to support lifestyles entirely disconnected from their own experience, people who knew nothing of agriculture and cared less, and whose activities were sometimes disruptive to day-to-day economic activity but mostly irrelevant. Once there were sowers and reapers, now there are bank clients and factory workers; once there were palaces and carriages, now there are McMansions and private jets. Much has changed, yet much remains the same.

A View of Afghanistan from Australia

Yes, it is a view by an American. Bill Claiborne lives in Australia but he worked for the Washington Post for more than 30 years. And, it is a view that appeared in the Nieman Watchdog so you have to suspect it will lean to the liberal point of view. Nonetheless, there is a fair dollop of sound opinion in Claiborne's piece.

First, Claiborne reports on a Pew Global Attitudes Survey which shows support for our war in Afghanistan is decreasing in the smaller countries, such as Australia and Canada, that supply troops there. He then raises the issue of Afghanistan being the graveyard of empires and raises the usual surmises as to the truth of the assertion. The effect of casualties is another issue that seems to be leading to nations pulling out of the "coalition". And, once again, the question of relating our Afghanistan situation to Vietnam rears its head and Claiborne comes down on the side of both being quagmires.

Most Inept Board in America

That's what Joe Nocera calls the board of Hewlett-Packard. He's referring to their inability to construct a deal that would have prevented Mark Hurd from signing on with a competitor. Other California companies have been able to do so. Why couldn't HP?

This is not the first time HP's board has made the news for some strange actions. A few years ago there was the 'pretexting' scandal wherein the board used nefarious techniques to try to find a leak by a board member(s). Their firing of Carly Fiorina was not a case study of how to dump the CEO.

And, then, the company has been pursued for violations of the laws of this country and others.

Hewlett and Packard must both be rolling over in their graves. HP was a quintessential American success story in ways beyond money.

Resume Padding Around the World

Today let's look at New Zealand. Stephen Wilce, who headed the country's Defense Technology Agency, was known as "Walter Mitty" by at least one former employer. He claimed to have been a member of MI5 and MI6, a Marine veteran, to have designed nuclear weapons guidance system, and, the weirdest claim, to have been a member of the British Olympic bobsleigh team in 1988. None of these claims can be verified; they are all figments of Mr. Wilce's imagination. Yet we was considered New Zealand's chief defence scientist and held the highest security level. Go figure!

Closer to Home

It's hard to see, I know. But that is supposed to be a 4-foot alligator taking it easy in the Charles River in Dedham, which is not that far from the Hub of the Universe.

Sightings of alligators or crocodiles have picked up this summer. The previous sighting was only a week ago.

Not All Bailed Out Banks Are Doing Well

Take OneUnited. The bank received $12,000,000 in federal bail-out funds through the offices of Barney Frank and Maxine Waters (who, by the way, faces ethics charges in part because of her dealings with OneUnited.) Two years later, assets have dropped by 18% and loans by 13%. The bank has missed six dividend payments to the Treasury.The bank is running at a loss despite failing to build reserves against possible loan losses.

It is the country's largest minority-owned bank, but it doesn't do much for its potential customers. Since getting TARP money, the bank has written less than six mortgages in Greater Boston.Other community banks have written hundreds.

For more background on One United, click here.

Terry Jones is not the only jihadi recruiter

Our government is active in the field and does a better - a far better - job of recruiting. The Afghans may see Jones and company on a television as they burn Korans. But they know what it means to live the life of the occupied and we are the occupiers. They have experienced death and destruction firsthand and, in many cases, we are the killers and destroyers. They are the ones without a government that can supply the basics of life and we nation-builders allow this to go on day after day, week after week.

How would you react at our actions if you were an Afghan? How pleased would you be with your life in a state of war? Would you eventually conclude that your only choice is to revolt?

HIV/AIDS Rampage

HIV/AIDS does not bring the fear of an epidemic that it did in the last century. Most countries have begun to effectively cope with it and, in most countries, the growth rate of the virus is negative. One area of the world where the growth rate is surprisingly still positive is Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which includes parts of Russia. In some cities of this area, the incidence of HIV/AIDS has increased by 700% in only four years.

The drug needle is probably the most common method of transmission; one-quarter of the world's needle users are in this area. Worse, the age of needle users is getting lower; the average user starts at 16. The stigma and resulting discrimination against users does not help things at all.

Goldman Sachs Fined in England

The Financial Service Authority, which is somewhat like the SEC, has fined Goldman $31,000,000 for Goldman's failure to disclose that Fabrice Tourre was being sued by the SEC for his involvement with the Abacus CDO.

Where will Goldman's next fine come from?

Can it be true?

There's a shocking report in today's NY Times: some companies are actually trying to make packages easier to open. It's probably not a surprise that Amazon is leading the way. We have reached the point where just about everything needs scissors, a knife, a hammer or luck and a prayer to be opened. This has to be one of the most frustrating of daily experiences. There's a fortune to be made by the company that makes their packages opened by almost everybody; costs will decrease and sales increase.

Rewarding the CEO

The Institute for Policy Studies(IPS) has released their annual survey of executive compensation. This year they focus on companies that have laid off a significant number of workers. Do I have to tell you that IPS does not think that many CEOs of major companies have been anything but greedy? The report focuses on the 50 companies who have laid off the most workers. Consider these findings of the report:

• 72% of the firms announced their layoffs despite being profitable at the time. (Whether they would have remained profitable without the layoffs is not considered.)
• Only 2 of the 50 companies paid the standard corporate income tax rate of 35%. HP paid $47,000,000, which was 2% of pretax domestic income.
• 5 of the 50 received $3.39 billion in TARP money. Since receiving our money, Amex has laid off 4,000 and paid the CEO $16,800,000.
• The combined compensation of the 50 CEOs could have provided unemployment benefits to 37,759 workers for a year or a month of benefits for the 531,363 laid off employees.

It is not a pretty picture.

Word-smithing?

That's what an Arizona senator called it when it was pointed out that the Governor of Arizona "misspoke" when she claimed at least twice in June that headless bodies were found in the Arizona desert. The Governor misspoke in two television interviews. How many times did she misspeak in campaign appearances?

Like most politicians she's found an issue that she thinks can put her back in the governor's office. Does she care whether her statements about the issue are true?Are there more important issues Arizona voters are concerned with?

5 days

That's how many days it took for our non-combatant forces to engage in combat on behalf of the Iraqi army. A Baghdad military headquarters was attacked by 7 terrorists. Our troops, who were at the headquarters to train the Iraqis, were called into action. The Iraqis also asked for help from our helicopters and drones.

I'm glad the Iraq war is over. Right!

21st Century Children's Books

Another surprise of my old age was reading "Walter the Farting Dog" to my grandchildren today. This was the fourth in a series of books about Walter. Of course, the kids loved it. The strangest part of the experience for me was that this book was borrowed from the local library.

Tebaldi or Callas?

Okay, Callas has won the argument, probably because she was in the news a lot more than Tebaldi. It's very hard to really know who was the better singer. I preferred Tebaldi when I was younger but for the past few days I have been listening to the Callas version with Nicolai Gedda and Herbert von Karajan at La Scala. It would be hard to top it.

However, I could not find a really good version of "Un Bel Di" by Callas. So, here is Renata!

An Example

Yesterday I wrote about some of the insights Ernest May had with regards to our foreign policy. May was very fond of asking questions before coming to decisions, which one would think would be rather obvious, yet does not necessarily appear to be the way most of our policies are decided. He had questions with regards to foreign cultures: "Who are they? How do they see things? Not, how do we presume that they see things. Not, how do we insist that they see things? Not, how do we hope they see things?"

I was reminded of these questions on reading Dexter Filkins' piece in today's NY Times. He quotes the CIA with regards to their explanation of why we have accepted so much corruption in Afghanistan: "What is acceptable to the Afghans is different than what is acceptable to you or me or our people." Yet, he also demonstrates why this reasoning is faulty as those Afghans who are not connected to the in crowd do not easily accept corruption. Yet we persist in our beliefs and policies even as their major bank is failing because of corruption.

8 Lessons from Afghanistan

Robert Blackwill, former U.S. Ambassador to India and someone with a strong background in foreign affairs, spoke last month at the Aspen Institute about "Afghanistan and the Uses of History". It is truly a fascinating article; it essentially argues that we don't think critically when it comes to foreign affairs. This is especially evident, in Blackwill's view, when it comes to analogies, whether it's Munich, Vietnam, Russia, the surge. He quotes Philip Zelikow, "The great danger is the temptation to think that the analogy has supplied a probable answer, a tempting shortcut that leaps over difficult, detailed analysis of the case at hand."

Blackwill's paper was the Ernest May lecture this year at Aspen. Fittingly, he quotes May quite a bit. Some of the quotes:

• With regard to government decisions - "Will it work? Will it stick? Will it help more than it hurts? If not, what?"
• With regard to meddling in foreign cultures - "Who are they? How do they see things? Not, how do we presume that they see things. Not, how do we insist that they see things? Not, how do we hope they see things?"
• With regard to history - "at least three other strands of history ought, in our view, to be drawn in before objectives are finally selected, opinions sorted, and actions decided. The first is the historical underpinnings of key presumptions…this is the history which induces belief that if X occurs, Y will follow." (So what are the key presumptions that underpin our Afghanistan strategy? If we artfully implement COIN in southeast Afghanistan, the Pashtun will come over to our side? How much are these presumptions based on analysis and evidence, and how much on simple faith?) "The second is the history in the heads of other people—the differing ideas about the past and its lessons that with differences in age or experience or culture..." (What lessons from their history do Pashtun draw?) "Third is the history of organizations." (What was to be the Pentagon’s likely answer if asked in the early fall of 2009, how many troops does it need in Afghanistan? Was there any chance it would say fewer?)

The conclusion of Blackwill's talk:

I will identify eight such possible lessons from Afghanistan:

1. Ensure that the U.S. commitment in blood and treasure is clearly commensurate with U.S. vital national interests and does not push aside more important American strategic challenges.

2. Keep U.S. policy objectives feasible. No dreams allowed.

3. Take into account that local realities dominate global constructs.

4. Stay out of long ground wars in general, and especially stay out of long ground wars in Asia.

5. Reject the notion that America has the capability to socially engineer far-off societies fundamentally different from our own.

6. Be cautious about making counterinsurgency the U.S. Army’s core competence. Interacting with exotic foreign cultures on the ground, not to say dramatically changing them, is not exactly America’s comparative advantage.

7. Accept that diplomacy is almost always a better instrument of U.S. national purpose than the use of military force.

8. Remember that often purported worst case consequences of U.S. external behavior don’t ever happen, not least because we remain the most powerful and resilient country on earth.

As I end my presentation, Ernie’s penetrating questions keep coming to mind regarding Afghanistan. Does current U.S. policy in the Afghanistan conflict make strategic sense? Will historians understand why the United States deployed 100,000 troops into Afghanistan nearly ten years after 9/11? Will current U.S. policymakers remember twenty years from now why it was so important to defend Helmand province and the village of Marja and to sometimes speak as if the fate of the civilized world depended on our success? In two decades, will these people among the best and the brightest of the American national security community in this era serving at the top of the Obama administration, will they still find the grand strategic importance of Kandahar self-evident? Or as May and Neustadt underscore, might they later ask as other American policymakers have asked before them, "How in God’s name did we come to do that?"

Who's lying now?

Joe Wilson, a South Carolina Congressman, first came to the notice of the public when he accused Obama of lying as Obama was speaking to Congress. Now the question has arisen as to whether Mr. Wilson is a liar and a thief. On first being accused of violating ethics rules by taking money from us on his many foreign trips, Mr. Wilson minimized the situation by saying it was over an expenditure of $12. Now it seems the investigation is over a little more than $12; it's about money he spent on his foreign travels on our behalf.

Since he has become a Congressman, he has spent $100,000 of our money on foreign travel; this puts him at #29 out of 435 Congressmen who have traveled abroad. And the $100,000 is only the money we have paid him, it does not include the money we spent to ship him overseas or the money spent by our soldiers who guarded him and showed him around.

Mr. Wilson justifies his travels by his need to fulfill his responsibilities as a member of the military preparedness subcommittee. How often did the chairman of this subcommittee travel to the front?

Wilson's opponent in the upcoming election happens to be an Iraq vet. His comment on the affair: "When I was in Iraq, I don't know how many times we had to take Marines and soldiers off missions so they could provide security for these political stunts."

More College Football Stupidity

It never ends - the sacrifice of education to marketing of college football players. Now, we have more and more colleges pushing "beefcake" photographs; i.e., photos that emphasize the body of the players, not their mind nor their skill in football. Part of the move is sponsored by the Collegiate Strength and Conditioning Coaches Association, which has enough money to pay an executive director. (An aside - I wonder how much colleges pay their strength and conditioning coaches, certainly more than they pay some lowly doctoral candidates who actually spend time in classrooms teaching students.)

Here is an example of one of these photos, this one of Purdue players.

I wonder what the president of Purdue thinks about this.

From our correspondent in the Big Apple

An alligator has been reported in Michigan. The gator was living in a corn field. It was a fairly small one as it was killed by a 4-foot bar swung by a farmer.

S**t Happens

Take, for example, this mushroom.

It has paid no attention to the imminent "end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it" storm. Yet, we humans seem to have paid an inordinate amount of attention. Will either attention or inattention have any effect on the storm?

Yes, we should prepare ourselves. But how many times do you have to be told that a serious storm is approaching and you had better get ready? Are there no other events that will negatively affect us? Like, the economy, the wars, climate change, the assault on our freedoms, the stupidity, incompetence and greed of our leaders, etc. Since the latter are all man-made, wouldn't it stand to reason that we'd have a better chance of preventing/stopping such foolishness if we devoted the same level of concern and attention to these problems as we do to the storm?