Howard French thinks China is in for some tough times as its population ages. According to his numbers, by 2040 the ratio of workers to retirees will go from 5:1 to 1.6:1. The number of Chinese older than 65 is expected to rise from roughly 100 million in 2005 to more than 329 million in 2050. The median age will go from under 30 to about 46, making China one of the older societies in the world. And they don't have any sort of a modern national pension system. So, they have a choice: "allow growing levels of poverty within an exploding elderly population, or provide the resources necessary to avoid this situation."
French is much more optimistic about us, primarily because of immigration. He thinks that our workforce will increase by 31 percent from 2010 to 2050. According to the Pew Research Center, immigrants and their children and grandchildren will account for 88 percent of U.S. population growth over the next 50 years.
No comments:
Post a Comment