The federal budget is normally based on forecasts of economic growth by the Council of Economic Advisers. The Trump team has supposedly ordered the Council to predict economic growth of 3 to 3.5 percent.
Is this a good estimate?
Inflation-adjusted economic growth over the past decade has been under 2 percent. And independent projections for the coming decade are equally lackluster, thanks in part to population aging. The Federal Reserve, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and private forecasters predict about 1.8 to 1.9 percent annual growth.