Thursday, January 25, 2018

Research 'Findings'

Almost every week there is a report about a wonderful scientific research finding. But, there are seldom any words in the report as to how true the report's findings are. I knew about a web site that kept track of retractions; they were in the thousands. I've forgotten the site but here are a couple of other sites - Retraction Watch and Wikipedia

Yesterday I came across an article about the subject by Douglas Campell, who has been  a Staff Economist in the President's Council of Economic Advisors. Here is an interesting excerpt:
This is a description of everything I wish science was! Perhaps it is an accurate description of hard sciences (I'm skeptical), but this is not how the social sciences operate. In practice, when a top researcher has a major finding, other top researchers, with rare exceptions, do not check it. Occasionally, grad students or less prominent researchers will overturn the result, but they will find that journals simply aren't the least bit interested in publishing papers which reverse seminal papers. Thinking like an economist, this creates some rather perverse incentives. If you are a well-connected researcher in a prominent department, you are well-incentivized to publish as much as possible. This means creating research which appears sophisticated, and it also means not pissing off the people who will judge your research. On the contrary, implies that there are benefits from having a lot of close friends (what deGrasse calls your "rivals") in the profession. You don't accomplish this by pointing out that another researcher's results disappear when you control for latitude. As a result, many top researchers are in fact incentivized to crank out many low-quality papers but with seemingly blockbuster results. Part of the way this system survives is because there is a culture frowning on writing "comment papers", and the other reason is that there is, fortunate for the existence of this system, a willing population of "sheep", the "true believers", available to consume and believe this research.

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