A Nation?

As I was reading “Bush’s Islamic Republic” by Peter Galbraith in the current NY Review of Books I was reminded of the spate of articles written a year or more ago promoting the idea of a confederation in Iraq, i.e., an Iraq made up of three separate fiefdoms (Shia, Sunni, Kurds) loosely organized into a ‘nation’. Bremer didn’t like that idea and pushed for a tightly organized nation. I wonder whether the insurgency would have been so virulent if Bremer had accepted the idea of many of the Iraqis.

No matter what Bremer wanted it appears as though the de facto situation on the ground in Iraq today is one of three separate fiefdoms. Let’s look at a few situations which support that view:

• The flag of Iraq is not flown in the capital of Kurdistan, nor was it present at the inauguration of the Kurdistan National Assembly. Most of those inaugurated pledged loyalty to the Kurdistan Region, while only a few pledged loyalty to the Kurdistan region “of Iraq” as the oath read.
• The few capable military units are former Kurdish peshmerga, who, if called by the Kurdish government, would in a heartbeat go north to fight for Kurdistan, rather than Iraq.
• Kurdish and Shia government officials use only their own people as bodyguards and do not inform Iraqi authorities of their movements.
• It is believed that Sunnis in the Iraq army cooperate with the insurgents, so desperate are they to regain the power they had under Saddam.
• Cities in the Shia South are governed by religious leaders who ignore those in Baghdad and ignore the freedoms in the interim constitution.
• Many Shia, particularly those in the religious parties, are promoting the interests of Iran. The leader of one party has recommended the payment of Iran-Iraq war reparations to Iran.
• The Shia oil minister wants to build a pipe line to Iran.
• 98% of the Kurds who voted on a referendum voted for Kurdish independence.
• When swearing in the cabinet, the Prime Minister eliminated the words “federal Iraq” from the statutory oath.

It does not look like a nation to me.