The U.S. Army War College publishes the Quarterly, Parameters. Although I know nothing about military matters, I find the publication interesting. For example, the Spring issue has an article entitled "Measuring the Effectiveness of America’s War". It seeks to evaluate just how well the war on terror is doing. The author's conclusion: not very well.
By and large our leaders make statements, such as the killing of Osama, which they point to as indicating that we are doing well. Yet, there is very little quantitative data that shows this even though the Government Performance and Results Act mandates all agencies establish performance objectives and measure progress in meeting those objectives.
The author of the article, Erik W. Goepner, has done his own calculations using available data. His basic conclusion is that the war on terror has made matter worse.
"Statistical modeling indicates for every additional billion dollars spent and 1,000 American troops sent to fight the war on terror, the number
of terror attacks worldwide increased by 19. The data show countries the US invaded had 143 more terror attacks per year than countries the US did not invade. Similarly, countries in which the US conducted drone strikes were home to 395 more terror attacks per year than those where the US did not. In 2001, some 1,880 terror attacks occurred. By 2014, the number had risen to 16,818. Fatalities caused by terror attacks have increased to unprecedented levels. The average number of deaths rose 72 percent for the 13 year period after 9/11 as compared to the 13 years prior. In 2014, a record 43,512 people were killed by terrorism, a staggering 297 percent increase from the worst year in the pre-9/11 period which was 1997."
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