Thursday, June 30, 2005
What is the function of mathematics?
Here's a quote from the authors of the textbook: "Shouldn't educators suggest that math can help solve poverty, the AIDS crisis, global warming, overreliance on fossil fuels, and so many other vexing problems?" You can substitute virtually any study - English, science, history - in that sentence and it would still be stupidity.
We need a solid education in many things if education is to help people solve the problems listed as well as the basic problem of man living with the other inhabitants of this universe.
Just the facts, maam
Confidential no more
Time’s Editor-in-Chief, Norman Pearlstein, in an editorial in a recent issue of Fortune, wrote, “We believe that we must protect our sources when we grant them confidentiality, an obligation we do not take lightly. We also believe we must resist government coercion.”
It looks like Time’s editor-in-chief will be overridden by Time’s lawyers and businesspeople as there are reports that their attorneys will be turning over to the government documents which reveal the confidential sources used by Matthew Cooper in the Valerie Plame case. This will set a precedent that most journalists and civil libertarians think dangerous.
Fortunately, the NY Times has not yet considered caving into the government’s demands. But, still, Time is a major force in American journalism and to have them cave is not a good sign.
Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Every day brings another surprise
The other day it was Newt Gingrich that surprised me. Today it’s William Safire. In an op-ed piece in today’s NY Times he mounts a very forceful defense of Judith Miller. You may recall that Miller has not been charged with any wrongdoing and, in fact, has written nothing about Valerie Palme. But she learned about the story from a confidential source and the government wants to know who that source is. Although Robert Novak actually wrote a story about Palme using confidential sources, the government has been silent about Mr. Novak.
In at least one way this ‘investigation’ reminds me of the Starr pursuit of Clinton – lots of money, time and talent wasted. Doesn’t the government have more important issues to work on?
This guy might be president?
I still can’t figure out what Governor Romney has done in his 2+ years in office in
Now he’s established an office for faith-based groups and appointed his wife to head it. I don’t criticize him for following his president in forgetting about the separation of church and state on which this country was based for 200+ years. Nor do I fault him for establishing the 27th state office for faith-based groups trying to milk the federal coffers (to which non-faith-based people contribute). Nor do I carp about the fact that his wife will earn no salary. I worry that this country has reached a point where such an idiot as Romney can be considered a possible presidential candidate for even one minute. But, then again, can we get any worse than the current occupant of
Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Figures don't lie?
Would you believe that OPEC does not publish any ‘official’ figures as to its production? Any production and reserve numbers you see come from a company called Petrologistics. Its headquarters are over a grocery store in
Can we believe the Saudis, who supposedly possess 25% of the world’s ‘proven’ reserves, that they can supply 20 million barrels of oil a day for the next 50 years? Interestingly, 90% of their production comes from fields discovered almost 40 years ago; all of these fields require extensive water injection to keep pumping at a good rate, which is a sign of old age in the oil field business.
If their numbers are wrong, what does that say about the energy situation going forward?
Find the Failed States Index
Newt and I
I never thought that I'd agree with Newt Gingrich on many things. But, if he really believes what he said on "This I Believe" on NPR, I'll have to change my opinion.
Here's what he said, "The gap between our civilization, our prosperity, our freedoms and all of those things is the quality of our leaders, the courage of our people, the willingness to face facts and the willingness to work for solutions -- solutions to energy, solutions to the environment, solutions to the economy, solutions to education and solutions to national security. We have real challenges, we have a wonderful country. We need to keep it, and to keep it we're going to have to learn these kinds of lessons. That's what I believe."
It's the unwillingness to face facts that is the fundamental problem in this country today.
Monday, June 27, 2005
Another impact of the CNOOC offer
It may have appeared elsewhere in the mainstream media but I haven’t seen it. That is, the words that I have been preaching in this blog for several months: “the
Now when will the Times also start editorializing about the growing economic power of
Sunday, June 26, 2005
A sign of the times?
Not surprisingly, they have been dying off over the past several years and none of them has had a military funeral (i.e., military personnel play taps, fold the flag and present it to the veteran's survivors). Yesterday, I went to the funeral of another of these veterans and was surprised to see that it was a military funeral. Walter was as quiet as my other cousins with regard to his war service. While politically conservative, he was by no means jingoist. Yet, his coffin was draped with the flag and taps were played.
I wonder whether other veterans of all our wars also have a military funeral now. Is this another artifact of our times - i.e., the war against terror, the us vs. them mentality that this country is developing?
Friday, June 24, 2005
Biden at Brookings
- Acknowledge your problems
- Figure out a strategy to overcome these problems
- Measure the success of your strategy and be prepared to change if the strategy is not working.
Some illustrations of the problem:
- Only 3 of the 107 Iraqi battalions being trained are completely independent of our troops and another 27 are on the verge. 77 are not capable of acting on their own or in concert with us.
- Only $6 billion of the $18.4 billion authorized for reconstruction in 2003 has been spent, almost two years later and 40% of that has been spent not on reconstruction but on Iraqi security forces.
- Sewage is all over the place.
- The American public is losing faith in the war.
Biden thinks we need to get results in four areas – security, governance and politics, reconstruction and burden-sharing. He feels we should accept the offers of help that have come from France, Germany and NATO and make sure that the pledges of $13 billion in aid made in 2003 come through.
The recommendation that has caused the most consternation is the establishment of benchmarks and the periodic reporting of progress towards those benchmarks. A basic management axiom is “You can’t manage if you don’t measure”. I know this is the world of politics, not business, but common sense applies in both spheres. Let’s hope our government starts using a little common sense.
Another $300 million
What year are we living in?
Thursday, June 23, 2005
Cut and Run? No
David Brooks in today’s NY Times argues against leaving
“Biden's speech brought to mind something Franklin Roosevelt told the country on
That's how democracies should fight, even in the age of polling.“
Abstinence or Public Broadcasting?
I guess today is the day when the House votes on the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) budget. If I heard right, the president (certainly not the chairman) of CPB would be happy with the restoration of a planned $100,000,000 cut. In federal budget terms this is chickenfeed. Heck, it’s half of what is being planned for our government’s abstinence program. If one were comparing ROIs (returns on investment), deciding between PBS and abstinence for teenagers would be a no brainer. The $200 million to keep teenagers ‘pure’ is, in my judgment, money wasted; whereas PBS really meets the needs of a heck of a lot of people - liberal, conservative and in between. In fact, the listeners of PBS are just about equally divided among these three camps.
I’ve received several e-mails asking me to join the campaign to maintain the budget of CPB. The problem is that I live in
Dawn is coming?
Gee, some people are beginning to wake up. The Energy Secretary, Sam Bodman, wants to convene the Committee for Foreign Investment in the
Of course, not a word was said when Lenovo bought IBM’s PC business earlier this year or when Haier put in a bid for Maytag last week. Is it only if the deal is above $15 billion (Cnooc is offering $18.5 billion) or is in the oil industry that the government will realize there is a problem looming here in our changing world?
This latest and largest bid moves
Saturday, June 18, 2005
What ever happened to rainbows?
Failed States Index
To no one's surprise, the nations that make the top 10 are largely from Africa. But there are some surprising names on this list of 60 countries: Bhutan, Guatemela, Paraguay, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain and Russia.
Some of these countries have been on the verge of collapse or have actually collapsed before and come out of it. However, the World Bank found that half of the countries that had come back from a collapse were down again within five years.
Of the 12 indicators used, two are most common: uneven development and delegitimization of the state. By uneven development they are referring to economic inequality even in countries, like Venezuela, which you would not normally classify as an impoverished nation. Delegitimization refers to situations where the state is corrupt or simply incapable of providing basic services.
And, of course, we have limited attention spans and tend to be insular. So that, we seldom hear of the nations such as Ivory Coast, Somalia and Congo where the risk of failure is highest.
I can't imagine where the senior Bush got his kids
Bush pere seemed to accept reality. Why won't his kids?
Friday, June 17, 2005
I thought I was back in Canada
Well, I was wrong. Today driving on the Massachusetts Turnpike, I saw a Greyhound bus traveling a little ahead of me; flames were coming from underneath it due to the metal wheel scraping the ground as the tire was traveling across and up the road. The tire must have traveled a quarter to a half mile before hitting the guard rail and crossing the road once more to finally land in the shoulder.
Fortunately, the driver was able to bring the bus to a halt by the side of the road. It's doubtful that anyone was severely hurt. But, it certainly caused me and other drivers to really slow down as we followed the tire.
Greyhound is facing some major competition on the Boston - New York run. I wonder whether they've skimped on maintenance as one way to cut costs to meet the competition.
Afghanistan is getting warmer
First, it was the recent increase in attacks. Now, they’ve started up the propaganda war. Mullah Akhtar Esmani, a leading Taliban commander, appeared on Pakistani TV and proclaimed, “We will engage the
Thursday, June 16, 2005
A little bit different view on the deficit
Felix Rohatyn, a financial eminence gris, has an interesting op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal. It’s a kind of why-didn’t-I-think-of-that article relative to the deficit. Rohatyn's proposal is very simple: establish a government trust fund to develop our capital assets, such as infrastructure, education, scientific research, etc. The trust fund would be funded by very long term (50 years?) bonds.
He refers to history for support - Eisenhower and the Federal Highway Act,
And he makes a point I’ve tried to make often. We can compete with
Back to the '50s?
In the 1950s there were a couple of guys who earned their living making sure that only true Americans (in their definition) appeared on radio and television. Are we reverting back to those days? It seems that Ken Tomlinson, the chairman of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, entered into a contract with one Fred Mann to pay him almost $15,000 to monitor the political leanings of the now-defunct Bill Moyers “Now”.
What are we becoming? PBU24
Wednesday, June 15, 2005
My mind is made up
It's a different world
In India the local council decreed that since her father-in-law had raped her, she had to marry the father-in-law.
In the first case international PR caused Pakistan to change its mind and allow the girl to leave the country. In the second case, national courts overthrew the decision.
How to conduct an executive search - not!
Whether or not they actually believe or practice it, almost all boards of directors specify the kind of person they are looking for when seeking a new CEO; no one is automatically ruled out. Morgan Stanley is different. They’ve specified who will not be considered: just about anybody who disagreed with Purcell, the current CEO. You wonder where there brains are.
Purcell will not be suffering as he leaves with at least $63,000,000. Not bad, but a trifle compared to the $1.45 billion the firm owes Perelman, largely for Purcell’s arrogance.
Saturday, June 11, 2005
Fallows again
Unsurprisingly, he nails Bush's tax cuts as a prime mover in our downward path. The Congressional Budget Office in January of this year reported that 48% of the increased deficit over Bush's first term could be attributed to the tax cuts. The tax cuts have lowered the federal government's share of GDP to 16%, a level not seen since 1959 and significantly lower than the 17.5% to 20% they consumed from 1962 to 2002. The GAO warns that if the tax cuts are made permanent, by 2015 we would barely cover our fixed costs.
Of course, the problem is not simply the tax cuts. We just don't save very much any more; our savings rate has gone from 8% of disposable income in the 1950s to virtually zero today. So, we are not buying bonds to finance our government, China and other foreign governments are, making us vulnerable to the needs and wishes of these foreign governments. We are placing a very big bet on these foreign governments' willingness to finance our deficit.
Fallows has an interesting take on the oil situation with regard to China and India. He claims they are using their oil for their factories, we are using our oil for our cars. And he has some numbers to back up his claim about our use. In 1973 we used 35 quadrillion BTUs of oil. In 2003 that number had grown to 39 quadrillion, but consumption by industry has been flat, and two-thirds of the oil is being used for transportation.
Did you know that Gwinnett County in Georgia imported 27 teachers from Hyderabad in 2004? Or, that England outsourced grading of high school exams to India? I would have thought that education would always be a local affair. I guess I was wrong.
Our phenomenal growth over the past 200+ years has been based on savings, investment, education and innovation. We've talked about the savings problem. Here are some footnotes apropos to investment, education and innovation.
In 2005 the American Society of Civil Engineers gave a grade of D to our infrastructure - roads, bridges, etc.
One third of our high schools students fail to graduate on time.
California, a leader in public education in the post WWII world, now spends less on education than the average of other states and is now just above Arkansas.
In 2003 Shanghai opened a 'maglev' train system in which the trains averaged 267 mph and were on time 99.7% of the time. (Is the Acela back in service yet?)
What will people think of Fallows' article in 2016, his dateline. Will we miss the opportunities we have today? Will we return soon to the principles and actions that made this country great? Will we heed the Cassandras of today?
A Narrative of Scandal
There has yet to be an investigation, by the courts or Congress, to tell the story of what happened or an expiation where sentences are handed down and the bad guys punished, so that we can finally return to a state of grace.
We can't get to the investigatory phase because words no longer have meaning.
Friday, June 10, 2005
"Something's wrong with the system"
"We're No. 1 in the world in military capabilities, but on the business side, the Defense Department gets a D- giving them the benefit of the doubt." sayeth the GAO.
The problems:
- Overly expensive technological requirements that are far beyond current capabilities.
- Gross under-estimates of anticipated costs.
- Lack of oversight by the Pentagon; the contractors are expected to police the contract.
- Unrealistic testing
- Costs are hidden under a cloak of secrecy
- Congress approves weapons the military doesn't want.
The costs of new weapons is growing faster than the defense budget. But, are we any safer? Or, our troops better prepared? Or, is it that I should invest in defense contractors, where the ordinary rules of business and common sense do not seem to apply?
Thursday, June 09, 2005
June 9, 1954
Back then, it didn't matter whether what you said was true or false; it mattered whether you defended your position without regard to the merits of that position. The present times are becoming more and more like those days. Eventually, everybody will become a 'Red', McCarthy's term for his enemies.
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Copenhagen Consensus
Of course, you have to agree with the basic premise that economic analysis of rates of return is a good way to establish priorities for the use of resources to solve basic problems. Some may not agree, but, if you have limited money, you have to prioritize, you have no choice. And rate of return – i.e., what are the expected and realistic benefits to be gained from my investment – is a good way to set the priorities.
The work of the consensus is available on the web. Here’s a summary of their conclusions:
Very good projects:
Control HIV/AIDS
Provide micronutrients to combat malnutrition
Liberalize trade
Control malaria
Develop new agricultural technologies
Improve water and sanitation on a small scale to enable people to earn money
Enable communities to manage their own water supply and sanitation
Lower the cost of starting a business
Fair projects:
Lower barriers to migration of skilled workers
Improve infant and child nutrition
Reduce the prevalence of low birth weight
Improve basic health services
Guest worker programs for the unskilled
Optional carbon tax
Value-at-risk carbon tax
There are some interesting conclusions here, particularly the low payoff of projects to counter global warming. It behooves further study.
An honest and realistic man?
I knew there was one honest man in the Bush administration.
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Where are they now?
Will Bush become a believer?
Monday, June 06, 2005
The basics and the FBI software failure
Today’s Washington Post has another article on the failed FBI software project to automate case files. It’s based on a report by the Survey and Investigations Staff of the House Appropriations Committee. The highlights of that report are the failure of the FBI to notify SAIC, the contractor, of problems they had found and the FBI’s spending $17,000,000 testing a system they knew would be scrapped.
There are many reasons why this project failed, but I think two are central. According to an audit by the NRC the application development process did not include any users. How in the Lord’s name you can build something without getting input from the people it is to be used by boggles the mind?
The other is a failure to ask the obvious questions as described by Michael Schrage of MIT in this article. Quoting Schrage,“For example, the FBI never addressed how its agents currently used technology to manage their cases, and how the new software would modify and improve that process.” The frequent changing of specifications is one indication that there was no basic description of the problem and how it was to be resolved. The groundwork for this is usually an overall enterprise architecture, which, as the NRC found, did not exist at the FBI.
Some movement re Sudan
Smuggling by Apron
Saturday, June 04, 2005
World Environment Day
The Draft Redux
I can’t say that you heard it here first, but I’m just about convinced that the draft will return. It may not return with Bush in charge, as he is loathe to act where reason is concerned; but return it will.
Most people don’t want to willingly risk their life and will not willingly join the armed services when the chances of death or dismemberment are not zero. Consider that this current war has now go on longer than all but two of our wars – WWII and the Civil War – and it looks like we’ll have troops there for a long while yet, certainly until the next congressional election and maybe even the presidential election of 2008. More soldiers have left the Army this year than last and the rate of leaving has significantly exceeded the Army’s expectations. How many are willing to join today as opposed to
I’ve been lucky in that my children have, thus far, not had to fight in a war. I’m less optimistic that my grandchildren will be as lucky.
Friday, June 03, 2005
He lit one little candle
In what often seems like a cruel place, every so often something good happens. This is the case for the Safe Blood for Africa Foundation. It was started by Jeff Busch in 1999. He was working in
His foundation trains people to screen donors and test blood. A fairly simple idea, but the results have been so good (e.g., the amount of blood suitable for transfusions in
We frequently castigate “big business’, but the foundation gets 70% of its funding from business. Companies such as Exxon Mobile, Merck, Johnson & Johnson have contributed. And the Gates Foundation is involved here as well as US AID and the World Bank.
Bush is no Nixon
The brouhaha about Deep Throat naturally brought back some memories of the Nixon era and started me thinking about the differences between the Nixon administration and that of Bush II. I think the primary differences between the two are Nixon’s willingness to act against type and the caliber of another branch of government, the legislature.
The Men
We all know that Nixon “went to
Contrast the above actions with those of a fellow liar, a more sophisticated one, Bush (we seem to be moving more and more to Orwell’s world of 1984). Dogma seems to override common sense. Inaction is preferred to action. The environment is not something to be preserved, but to be used. He’d rather share mandates with the states, rather than provide the funds to implement the mandates. And we all know, George started a war as opposed to finishing one.
The Legislature
No one outside
Where do you see today’s legislators acting in the nation’s interest and dealing with serious matters, not such tripe as gay marriage and the Schiavo case?
Thursday, June 02, 2005
I guess she's a very big lady in more ways than one
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised when hospitals go out of their way when a famous person becomes a patient, but I must say supplying eight hospital rooms to Kylie Minogue kind of goes beyond the pale. Apparently, the hospital also made it difficult for other patients to be visited. One claims she was escorted out of the hospital when trying to visit her mother; she had no problem visiting before Ms Minogue was admitted.The hospital had to ensure that Ms Minogue's security was preserved. Hmm.
And Sinopec makes three
Another Chinese oil company has bought into the
Why is it the Wall Street Journal reports all the oil deals
Wednesday, June 01, 2005
Is it my imagination?
And, by the way, just how well is the reconstruction of Afghanistan going? Is the opium market down this year?