Who's Got the Data?

In general, the GAO (Government Accountability Office) does a good job. Aalthough their reports are a trifle circumspect, they’re fairly non-partisan and have no ax to grind. Over the past few years they’ve been auditing what they call Operation Iraqi Freedom. Last week they published a few more of their reports on “Rebuilding Iraq”.

The most important of these reports is the one entitled “Status of Funding and Reconstruction Efforts”. What they’ve found is, as you’d expect, not too good:

• Oil production and export is lower now than before the war.
• Electricity production is less than before the war.
• Iraqi access to clean water and decent sanitation is not measured.
• There was not even a list of the 64 water and sanitation projects the State Department claims to have completed.

Their conclusion: “Reconstruction efforts continue to face challenges such as rebuilding in an insecure environment, ensuring the sustainability of completed projects, and measuring program results.”

The issue of having meaningful data pops up again in the report “Preliminary Observations on Challenges in Transferring Security Responsibilities to Iraqi Military and Police”. The conclusion here:” ..without reliable reporting data, a more capable Iraqi force, and stronger Iraqi leadership, the Department of Defense faces difficulties in implementing its strategy to draw down U.S. forces from Iraq”.

And, again, the question of meaningful data in “Actions Needed to Improve Use of Private Security Providers”: “Despite the significant role played by private security providers in enabling reconstruction efforts, neither the Department of State, nor DOD nor the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have complete data on the costs of using private security providers.”

A Nation?

As I was reading “Bush’s Islamic Republic” by Peter Galbraith in the current NY Review of Books I was reminded of the spate of articles written a year or more ago promoting the idea of a confederation in Iraq, i.e., an Iraq made up of three separate fiefdoms (Shia, Sunni, Kurds) loosely organized into a ‘nation’. Bremer didn’t like that idea and pushed for a tightly organized nation. I wonder whether the insurgency would have been so virulent if Bremer had accepted the idea of many of the Iraqis.

No matter what Bremer wanted it appears as though the de facto situation on the ground in Iraq today is one of three separate fiefdoms. Let’s look at a few situations which support that view:

• The flag of Iraq is not flown in the capital of Kurdistan, nor was it present at the inauguration of the Kurdistan National Assembly. Most of those inaugurated pledged loyalty to the Kurdistan Region, while only a few pledged loyalty to the Kurdistan region “of Iraq” as the oath read.
• The few capable military units are former Kurdish peshmerga, who, if called by the Kurdish government, would in a heartbeat go north to fight for Kurdistan, rather than Iraq.
• Kurdish and Shia government officials use only their own people as bodyguards and do not inform Iraqi authorities of their movements.
• It is believed that Sunnis in the Iraq army cooperate with the insurgents, so desperate are they to regain the power they had under Saddam.
• Cities in the Shia South are governed by religious leaders who ignore those in Baghdad and ignore the freedoms in the interim constitution.
• Many Shia, particularly those in the religious parties, are promoting the interests of Iran. The leader of one party has recommended the payment of Iran-Iraq war reparations to Iran.
• The Shia oil minister wants to build a pipe line to Iran.
• 98% of the Kurds who voted on a referendum voted for Kurdish independence.
• When swearing in the cabinet, the Prime Minister eliminated the words “federal Iraq” from the statutory oath.

It does not look like a nation to me.

A 10th Planet?

It looks as though an object discovered in space in 2003 is very likely the tenth planet in our universe. That was the announcement made yesterday by a trio of US scientists. The object has the sexy name of 2003 UB313. It is the largest object discovered in space since Neptune in 1846.

What's your preference?

Hong Kong has been testing a new surveillance system for cargo. It combines gamma-ray, OCR and radiation scans. It's expensive in both start-up and operational costs, but it scans every container that comes into Hong Kong. And it scans the container quickly. And because it can identify the specific container, discovery of a suspect container does not mean a shutdown of the entire shipping industry.

Our Customs Service has not been very supportive of this new system. The current Customs system checks only suspicious containers, which translates to about 5.4% of the more than 7,000,000 containers that arrive in our ports each year. While the Customs Service has used the system for years and is happy with it, the system can't tell you where a nasty container came from nor is there much communication between ports. That means that if a nasty container is discovered the entire shipping industry could be shut down. The cost in money and terrorist satisfaction of such a shutdown would likely far exceed the cost of a better system.

More PBGC Data

PBGC, Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., is taking it on the chin from the airlines. Airline pension claims are now 38% of the claims against PBGC. What percent of the premiums have been paid by the airlines to PBGC? 2.6%.

Not a bad deal for the airlines since you and I will be picking up our share of these costs when we pay our taxes.

Add Another One

The former manager of the Columbia Young Investor Fund wants to buy the fund from the Columbia family of mutual funds. The results of the fund since he left have not been good; they're worse than the average fund in its category. Perhaps, the fact that the fund has had 6 different managers in the two years since David Brady, the former manager, left may have something to do with its performance. Then, again, the problem may be at higher levels within the Columbia family.

Consider that Thomas Theobald, the independent chairman of the board that oversees the fund, won't allow Brady to make a presentation to the board. Theobald claims that Brady's performance when he was managing the fund was sub-par. Yet Morningstar rated the fund better than 80% of its peers as did Columbia in its marketing material when Brady was manager.

Perhaps Theobald is overworked for the $172,500 he took home from Columbia last year for sitting on the boards of 118 Columbia funds. Let's see now. 118 boards, 250 working days in a year. So, assuming he works 250 days at Columbia, he spends 2.1 days for each fund, earning $690 per day. Anybody want to bet he does not work anywhere near 250 days a year?

We definitely are not alome

Scientists report the discovery of one of the largest objects in the outer solar system. It may be bigger than Pluto; it is certainly much further out than Pluto. Details are still very sketchy, but it seems to be made of ice and rock.

This discovery follows a similar one made last year. That object was given the name Sedna.

As the technology gets better and better, what will we discover? It's a great big universe out there.

The Truth Will Set You Free - another example

The EPA issues a report on automobile fuel economy every year about this time. This year's report was scheduled to be issued yesterday, the same day as the energy bill was in the news. Guess what? The report was delayed for some bs reason. Was it a coincidence that the report concludes that cars are less fuel-efficient today than in the later '80s?

DARPA Who?

I would not be writing, nor you reading, this unless an organization called DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) existed, was funded and had a long range view, for out of the work of DARPA in the 1960s came the Internet and a heck of a lot more technology.

The '60s were an era when the federal government invested in our country's future; it was not obsessed with the latest quarter. Now, it appears as though the people in power do not want to look beyond tomorrow. Witness: DARPA funding for long range research went from $214,000,000 to $123,000,000 from 2001 to 2004. Witness: our R&D funding ranks sixth in terms of our GDP; it's 2.7% of GDP. In Israel it's 4.4%, Sweden 3.8%, Finland 3.4%, Japan 3% and Iceland 2.9%. It's not only DARPA; it's most of the federal budget that had been devoted to long term research.

The result is that the number of patents that the US Patent Office issues to China, India and Japan has grown from 5% to 19% of all applications in the period 1989 to 2001.

India graduates 184,000 engineers annually. China graduates more, over 200,000. The US graduates 60,000. Our government's declining support of the sciences has to be responsible in some way for this.

Innovation and education made this country great. The results of innovation and education take time. Why won't our government realize this?

I can't believe this

I know that getting a mortgage is a heck of a lot easier now than it was when I was in the home buying market. While it is very risky, I can understand the mortgagors accepting lower credit scores, allowing more of a home's value to be borrowed against and even interest-only mortgages. But, not verifying a borrower's income or assets? It boggles my mind. Yet, Chase Home Finance is doing just that for its 'customers with the very highest credit rating'.

What's become of MG Rover and Huffy?

Well, Chinese companies are now, or about to become, major players in the fate of two iconic companies: England's MG Rover and the US' Huffy.

Nanjing Automobile has signed a deal to buy MG Rover. Huffy's Chinese suppliers plan to take a 30% stake in Huffy as well as control of the board of directors. In the case of Huffy, this action is due to poor management by Huffy. The Chinese companies are taking it over to try to recoup money owed them by Huffy.

Where are the Muslims?

A recent op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal asks "Why not a million Muslim march?" The article, written by Ahmed al-Rahim, a Muslim, exhorts Muslims to make their voice heard in condemnation of the dangerous extremists in their midst. They took to the streets when they thought we were desecrating the Koran. Why don't they take to the streets when fellow Muslims are desecrating their religion and their way of life?

The fatwa issued by the London Muslim leaders last week is a start, but a weak one.

It's about time

Twenty-seven months into this war Bush & Co. finally say that more than guns are needed to win the struggle against terrorism.

Measuring Iraq Progress Objectively

I finally looked at the metrics on the war that I wrote about last week. You'll find them at Alexander the Average's web site. I think Mr. Alexander has done a great job.

He looks at the issue in terms of four key tasks:

1. Defeat the enemy, prevent further escalation of violence and restore security
2. Build Iraqi military and security forces, transition them to fight
3. Rebuild Iraqi infrastructure and economy
4. Build Iraqi government.

Each of the key tasks is subdivided. There are some sub-tasks whose completion is more subjective than I would like. But, on the whole, this is information we should be getting from our government. It corresponds to what Biden asked for in his June speech re the war.

Alexander feels that things are moving in a positive direction. But he cautions that we have a long way to go, years in some cases.

What's all the fuss about

The Supreme Court is not the branch of our government that actually governs; governing is the function of the executive and legislative branches. It's true that the Court rules on many important matters, but, hearing less than 100 cases a year,it does not rule on all important matters. Yet, with all the brouhaha on both sides you'd think that the selection of the next Supreme Court judge is the most important thing to be done in our lifetime.

Rather than spend tens of millions of dollars on ads supporting or denouncing Roberts, these groups should spend the money on soldiers' families or food for the hungry. Spend it on trying to help solve some real problems, not on spreading some unimportant bull shit.

Sure, Roberts is conservative, but many conservatives, such as Black and O'Connor and Souter, have voted on the liberal side in many of their decisions. Some people do change. Some judges have changed. It's possible that Roberts might.

The Harvard Law Review recently published a summary of Supreme Court decisions over the past 10 years. 36% of these decisions were unanimous, 21% were 5 - 4. What makes us think that Roberts will really change these results?

Finally someone speaks out

Yes, it's not on the front page, but there is an article in today's NY Times about "Iraq war light", i.e., the attempt to wage a very serious war without asking the nation to sacrifice. Today's article by Thom Shanker reports on the rising tide of questions from the military as to why they seem to be the only ones involved in this war. One officer is quoted, "Nobody in America is asked to sacrifice, except us."

This is a far cry from my recollections of World War II and even Korea. America - you, me, all of us - were at war in our daily lives then. Today, unless you know someone in Iraq, the war is only something that makes the front page, just as Michael Jackson's trial did. It is not something that affects one's life.

Granted that there is supposedly a war on terrorism going on and living a 'normal' life may demonstrate that terrorists have not won. However, Iraq is part of the war on terrorism only in that it is and has been a prime breeding ground for the very terrorism we must defeat.

Another example of the 1984 world in which we live.

And now Egypt

You wonder whether the terrorists think that they are on a roll. London twice this month, Egypt yesterday. My sense is that if this 'campaign' continues, we'll be back to a post 9/11 mentality around the world. Countries will be more unified in combating terrorism. However, we must realize that terrorists will never be completely stopped. The world is a dangerous place and always will be. Our time here is very finite.

Trying to Measure Iraq Progress Objectively

There is an interesting experiment being conducted in Alexander the Average's blog . He's trying to come up with relatively objective criteria to measure the progress or lack of it in Iraq. I haven't had a chance to study it yet, but it looks pretty good.

Who's innovating?

I may be wrong but I was under the impression that the US was the leader in biometric identification. If my impression is correct, then the introduction of a vascular fingerprint by Fujitsu is another indication of slippage in our ability to lead innovation.

Fujitsu has invented a device that maps the blood vessels in your palm and can compare them, for example, to a picture taken at an ATM machine.

Loyalty? Fair Disclosure?

I’ve always had a good opinion of Motorola. They made good products and treated their employees well. But, since they have fallen out of the financial pantheon, they seem to have had less regard for their employees, at least those who are now earning a pension after spending their working life with the company.

Take the case of Fred Loewy. He worked at Motorola’s Scottsdale plant for 35 years until retiring in 1998 at the age of 73. He wanted to maximize his pension and Social Security payments. Well, 8 years later he finally got what he was entitled to. He was the victim of poor Federal law and shoddy, if not illegal, practices by Motorola.

At first reading the law seems fair: any retiree who disagrees with a company’s benefits decision has a right to appeal it and to see the benefit plan documents it is based on. That last half is where Fred and most other retirees got screwed. He, like most of us, did not know all of the documents he should ask for and Motorola did not volunteer the information. And, as with most laws, there is a statute of limitations. While Motorola was stonewalling Fred, the clock was ticking. If they stalled long enough, the company hoped Fred’s rights under the law would vanish.

Like many pension plans, Motorola’s reduced your pension by one-half of your Social Security payment. By working beyond 65, Fred increased the monthly payment he would receive from the government. He felt that Motorola should reduce his pension by one-half of what he would have received at 65, not that received at 70. It seems like a very simple argument to me that can be proved or disproved fairly quickly by looking at the paperwork. Motorola did not see it that way. First, they would not acknowledge receipt of Fred’s letters, although they were send via certified mail. Then they issued a couple of checks with no explanation. Then, they turned things over to an attorney, who made false statements.

Fortunately, Fred was a persistent guy and took the company to court. Motorola lost and has to pay Fred and 500 other retirees the money they are owed. But, the law remains the same and who knows how many times a company is cheating a retiree?

Of course, being Chairman is not that bad.

Today’s Wall Street Journal reports on Sanford Weill’s attempt to leave Citibank and start a fund of his own. Negotiations broke down because Weill wanted to leave but retain his bonus, pension and perks (including use of the jet, the car, the driver). I guess Weill was worried about his financial future. After all, he only has $887,000,000 in Citibank stock and who knows how much in other investments. He’d probably miss the $1,000,000 in salary he got in 2004, as well as the $8.4 million bonus.

This same issue reports on a couple in Pennsylvania who keep cutting their expenses in order to live within their shrinking income of $3,200 a month.

Oh, to be a CEO in the USA

Mercer Human Resources Consulting publishes a study of CEO salaries every so often. Here are some of their findings for 2004:

The median salary for an American CEO is far above that of the median salary for CEOs in just about every other country. Here it’s $2.3 million a year. In England it’s a million less. In Sweden it’s only $386,000. In Asia it’s even worse: Japan $318,000, India $88,000. It would be interesting to know what a Chinese CEO earns.

The median salary and bonus for CEO’s rose 14.5% last year, while salaried employees saw a 3.4% increase.

The low raise for salaried employees was still greater than that for non-managerial workers, who account for 80% of the workforce; they saw an increase of only 2.7%. If you factor inflation in, their raise goes to zero.

We need board members who can make rational decisions relative to compensation and stockholders who will hold board members accountable.

A Fatwa I Agree With

500 British Muslem religious leaders have issued a fatwa which expresses condolences to the families of the victims of the atrocity and wishes the injured a speedy recovery.

Most important, the fatwa states that Islam condemns the use of violence and the destruction of innocent lives and says suicide bombings are "vehemently prohibited".

Economic Recovery?

The unemployment rate is based on the number of people looking for work, but at any one time there are a number of people who stop looking for work and, thus, are not considered unemployed. If you add these to the published unemployment rate, you always get a higher number. How high that number is no one knows.

But now comes Katharine Bradbury, Senior Economist at the Boston Federal Reserve. She has studied labor participation rates over economic cycles from January 1948 through February 2005. Her numbers show that the labor force has been especially hard hit in the most recent recession; labor has suffered more than in previous cycles.

There are fewer people in the labor force as of February 2005 than you would expect when comparing economic cycles. She feels that the lower participation rate could between 1 and 3 percentage points to the published 5.4% of last winter, resulting in a real unemployment rate of between 6.4 and 8.4%. Not exactly the booming recovery we hear so much about.

China and Latin America

This month’s issue of the Strategic Studies Newsletter, a publication of the Army War College, features an article on China’s moves in Latin America, which is now China’s principal source of supply outside Asia. In 2003 it spent 77% of its non-Asia funds there. (I suspect they spend most of the rest in Canada, where they have invested heavily in the oil fields there.) They’re moving in with joint ventures and direct investments.

As with CNOOC’s potential investment in Unocal this could be a move that bolsters peace, as China is unlikely to jeopardize things when they have so much at stake. But the issue for the US is how to ensure that peace is the result. We need to start considering the issue now.

If you can't be CEO, be a board member

The average annual compensation for a director of a Fortune 200 company is $176,000. This is for a company that has not defrauded its investors nor declared bankruptcy.

Well, the directors of Enron, who actually run the company in lieu of a management team, just voted themselves a raise. The only full-time director is now paid $1,200,000 annually. The Vice Chairman gets $420,000 while the three other directors receive $300,000 a year. Not a bad deal.

A new theory of suicide bombers?

The latest issue of The American Conservative has an interesting interview with Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago. Pape has written a book, “Dying to Win: The Logic of Suicide Terrorists”, that he claims is based on a study of just about all of the suicide bombings that occurred from 1980 to early 2004. His conclusion is that the basic reason for the attacks is not religious; it is the desire to remove foreign troops from your soil.

As my son points out, there were no foreign troops at the World Trade Center on September 11 or in downtown London on July 7. These events are not discussed in the interview, but they certainly make one question Pape’s thesis.

Perhaps the truth lies on both sides – religion and ouster of foreigners- as it usually does.

21st century warfare

You really should look at the latest posting on Intel Dump.

Here's a quote from the author's conclusion:

“Keeping up starts with the realization that, if we believe we’re the center of the world, and that all roads lead to English and western culture, we’re not going to get to be on top for long. Mandarin Chinese is the second most-spoken language on the internet. Does anyone really believe that it’s going to stay second for long? And what language will it be after Mandarin? Let’s get ahead and stop playing catch-up.”

Welcome to Neverland, PA

Rick Santorum is another resident of a Neverland of his own making.His most recent visit was made in his response to his earlier claim that Boston’s liberalism nurtured an environment that made the clergy abuse possible. There was no consideration of whether the priests of Boston and around the world who violated young boys and girls might, in fact, be of the conservative persuasion. Nor did he acknowledge that these assaults also took place in such liberal bastions as Arizona, West Virginia and a heck of a lot more of the so-called red states.

Add to this

• his disgusting behavior in the Schiavo case, where, as Barney Frank, says Santorum “claims to have had eye contact with a blind woman”,


• his linking of ''man on child" and ''man on dog" sex with homosexuality,


• his comparing the Democrats blocking President Bush's judicial nominees to Hitler,


• his diatribes against two-income families,

And you wind up with another idiot who thinks he might be president some day.

The New and the Old at Morgan Stanley

John Mack, the new head of Morgan Stanley, moved very quickly to correct an error made by the Morgan directors in guaranteeing him $25,000,000 in compensation. He did the right thing and decided to have his pay set after the results of what will hopefully become a new Morgan Stanley are in.

The old Morgan Stanley continues to rack up the legal expenses. They now say that the expenses relative to the Perelman case could exceed $1.2 billion. This is in addition to the judicial award of $1.45 billion to Perelman. And to think that Purcell could have settled the case for $20,000,000!

Democracy wins another

It happened again here on Martha’s Vineyard. A government agency listened to the people and changed a policy it had just put in place. Last October it was the Oak Bluffs Selectmen who, after a round of letters to the editor, decided a roundabout was a waste of money. This month it was the Refuse District.

The district decided to adopt a single fee for dumping one’s trash, no matter whether one was dropping a small bag or a large barrel. When editorials and letters pointed out that this would create a health hazard (as people would store their trash until it filled a barrel) as well as make it difficult for the elderly to manipulate a full barrel, the district listened and promulgated a new policy to go into effect immediately.

Leaving Gaza

In a little over a month Israel will have moved the settlers from Gaza. You might wonder why they will need 45,000 soldiers to move 9,000 people. I also wondered about that until I recalled my visit to Israel 30 years ago.

On that visit we drove out of Jerusalem on a road that was surrounded by desert as far as you could see. However, after a short while, you could see a small patch of green many miles ahead. As you got closer, the patch got larger and larger. When we reached the patch, it seemed as though the settlers there had made the desert bloom. From there you could see desert all the way back to Jerusalem. For millennia this area had been a parched, uninhabited wasteland. These people brought the area to life.

I’ve always thought of myself as a hard worker; many of my associates are also very hard workers. But, I could not conceive of anyone I knew going through the really super-human exertions to create that patch of green.

So, if the creation of the settlements in Gaza required the same sacrifice and effort, I can easily imagine why it would take an army to get the people to leave.

Herold Noel, Hero

You really should listen to this. It’s the story of Herold Noel, a veteran of Iraq, who is “fighting his second war – a mental war”, a war against post traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD), a war that he “will be fighting all” his life. I think that the first time I heard about PTSD was 30 years ago when the Vietnam vets started reporting their post-war troubles. Now, it’s starting again.

Noel is an example of the talent that is hidden in so many people and seldom gets a chance to express itself. He’s only 25 but tells his story with a simple mastery that is heart-moving. He has devoted his life to speaking out for himself and his fellow veterans who gave their all in the war but now need help after the war.

He joined the Army at 19 as a way to achieve the American dream. He was determined to leave the drug- and crime-infested streets of his Brooklyn neighborhood. He served as a driver of a fuel truck. When he came back, he found that this experience was not enough to get a job driving a truck in New York or, in fact, getting any sort of job. So, he lost his kids, had problems with his wife and was homeless. He drank to stop the pain. Eventually he reached the point of attempted suicide, but was too drunk to go through with it.

The next day, someone from an organization called Black Veterans for Social Justice, gave him money to buy his kids Christmas presents. And that was the start of his journey back. Another organization, Operation Truth, was a conduit to an anonymous donor paying for an apartment for Herold and his wife for a year. Now, he has devoted his life to advocating for help for himself and his fellow veterans. He spoke before a Congressional committee in support of a bill to help those with PTSD. And he spoke with assurance, with honesty, frankly and movingly – without notes. His message was simple: Honor the living as well as we honor the dead.

He still carries in his jeep the magazines (the gun kind) that carried the clips which killed eight people. He wants to “give a life back by giving someone hope for life”.

Striking at the West again?

There were six bomb blasts in London today. At least one involved a bus that appears to be have been driven by someone other than the bus driver. As of now the casualty list is at 160. IRA? Al Qaeda? A new bunch of very angry and very nasty people? No one has claimed credit, but certainly it's a statement re the G-8 summit.

The stock market will likely take another hit today. And a lot of other bad things will occur today, for the world is a dangerous place. Some of us will be in an auto accident or get the news of a fatal illness or die today. Others will be robbed, assaulted, divorced. Hurricane season has begun; many will see their homes damaged; many will be injured; it will be a very scary event.

Life itself can be very scary, but we go on. We can't spend our life trying to avoid all bad things; Mother Nature will eventually win out even if it takes her all of our life to do so. Clearly, we take all reasonable steps to avoid real danger, aware that risk is always with us. Some things we try will not work.

There will be another terrorist attack on the US. Do we stop living because of this? I'm reminded of the poem, "Still I Rise" by Maya Angelou. While on the surface it is about the enslavement of blacks, it applies to all of us, no matter our color.

You may write me down in history
With your bitter, twisted lies,
You may trod me in the very dirt
But still, like dust, I'll rise.

Does my sassiness upset you?
Why are you beset with gloom?
'Cause I walk like I've got oil wells
Pumping in my living room.

Just like moons and like suns,
With the certainty of tides,
Just like hopes springing high,
Still I'll rise.

Did you want to see me broken?
Bowed head and lowered eyes?
Shoulders falling down like teardrops.
Weakened by my soulful cries.

Does my haughtiness offend you?
Don't you take it awful hard
'Cause I laugh like I've got gold mines
Diggin' in my own back yard.

You may shoot me with your words,
You may cut me with your eyes,
You may kill me with your hatefulness,
But still, like air, I'll rise.

Does my sexiness upset you?
Does it come as a surprise
That I dance like I've got diamonds
At the meeting of my thighs?

Out of the huts of history's shame
I rise
Up from a past that's rooted in pain
I rise
I'm a black ocean, leaping and wide,
Welling and swelling I bear in the tide.
Leaving behind nights of terror and fear
I rise
Into a daybreak that's wondrously clear
I rise
Bringing the gifts that my ancestors gave,
I am the dream and the hope of the slave.
I rise
I rise
I rise.

Moving from one blog to another

Reading Philip Carter's Intel Dump blog tonight I was struck by the following quote from Bobby's World.

"But too many of our leaders-- both military and non-military-- do not understand this fundamental difference between a guerrilla war and a maneuver war. They look to the old way to find solutions to new problems, while failing to comprehend the important differences that must be taken into account. For the military, that means a preference for "kinetic, technological solutions" and "large-scale decisive maneuver based on operational shock" (to quote Aussie Lt. Col. David Kilcullen) when we should instead be focusing upon a politically-based, intelligence-driven action that supports information operations and targets the enemy's strategy. For the NGOs, looking to the past means believing that the Geneva Convention and historic neutrality will provide them protection on the battlefield when, in fact, they do not understand that their activities-- even those as benign as feeding a child or teaching a little girl to read-- are inherently NOT neutral to the enemies of Afghanistan and that they are therefore being deliberately targeted by an enemy who never agreed to the Geneva Convention and would never do so in the future." (my emphasis)

Mr. Fu Speaks

And in The Wall Street Journal, no less.

Mr. Fu Chengyu, CEO of CNOOC, the Chinese company that has made an offer for Unocal, has an op-ed piece entitled, "Why Is America Worried?". The piece lays out some fairly strong arguments for the acquisition of Unocal.

His basic argument is simple: this is a normal business transaction and should be evaluated as such. He goes on to point out that 70% of Unocal's oil and gas reserves are in Asia and are committed under long term contracts primarily to Asian nations. He claims that CNOOC will keep in the US the oil that Unocal extracts from the Gulf of Mexico. So, we have nothing to fear about losing oil to China; in fact we may get more oil out of the Gulf than we currently do. Further, he agrees to abide by any reasonable decision of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US to divest any assets that do not harm CNOOC's core interests in this deal.

And, finally, CNOOC needs UNOCAL's people. Chevron, the other bidder for UNOCAL, has already announced that it will cut jobs. Mr. Fu says he will not.

He has some strong arguments, but does not use one which should impress even our congressmen: engaging China more, particularly via a major US company, will likely result in greater liberalization in that country.

First textiles, then cars, then?

Chinese cars are now for sale in Europe. A Dutch dealer was shipped 200 SUVs made by Jiangling Motors. The dealer expects to sell 2000 this year. He will sell them for about half the price of the nearest competitor. Interestingly, the engines are made by General Motors and Mitsubishi.

In a couple of weeks, Chinese compact cars will be on sale in Europe. A sales target of 10,000 has been set for this year.

And next year Chinese cars come to the USA.

Vindictive? I'd say so

Patrick Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor in the "CIA outing" by Robert Novak, seems like a vindictive guy. After Time turned over all their documents relative to Matthew Cooper's reporting, he still needs Cooper's testimony. And then he had this to say about Judith Miller, "Certainly one who can handle the desert in wartime," he added, referring to Ms. Miller's role in covering the war in Iraq, "is far better equipped than the average person jailed in a federal facility."

Again, the question is what is happening to the guy who made the first revelation? Robert Novak?

Who's controlling the game?

Bahrain, Pakistan, Egypt - Arab countries all. Yet the official representatives of each of these Arab countries have been attacked by the Arab Iraqi insurgents. It seems that each month brings a new approach by the insurgents.

When will we and our Iraqi supporters come up with a new approach?

It worked!

'It' is Nasa's deep impact project. It struck the Tempel 1 comet this morning. After the difficulties of the past few years, Nasa must be proud today - and justifiably so on this day symbolizing America's potential.

Classify this!

I guess if we’re at war we have to expect a rise in an emphasis on secrecy, which, among other things, means an increase in the number of classified documents. But, we seem to be going overboard in creating classified documents. Since 2001, the number of classified documents (according to an obscure federal agency called Information Security Oversight Office) has almost doubled. Guess how many documents were classified last year? 15,600,000, the classification of which cost us over $400 each for a total of $7.2 billion in one year.

Blaming this phenomenal rise on 9/11 doesn’t wash with Tom Kean, chair of the 9/11 commission. As the commission found, the problem re 9/11 was lack of sharing of information, not leaks of sensitive information. A quote from Kean: “The best ally we have in protecting ourselves against terrorism is an informed public.”

With any bureaucracy you do get weird things happening. Some examples:

the CIA is in court to prevent their budgets of the 1950s and 1960s being revealed. Wasn’t it a different world in the 1950s? Wasn’t Russia the bad guy? Wasn’t it a very different CIA?

The Defense Intelligence Agency deleted a comment that Pinochet was interested in fencing, boxing and horseback riding and that he was a conservative. Vital information that!

The Justice Department blacked out a few lines from a published Supreme Court decision. Duh!

Even the head of the Information Security Oversight Office complains about some of these inanities, “I’ve seen information that was classified that I’ve seen published in third grade textbooks.”

Somehow I don’t feel any safer knowing that we’re paying good money so someone can play spies.

Dream World

As I’ve said numerous times, one of this country’s primary problems is an unwillingness to face facts.

What do you think the response from those living in other countries would be to the question, “Suppose a young person who wanted to leave this country ask you to recommend where to go to lead a good life – what country would you recommend?”

The Pew Research Center asked this question of 17,000 people in a variety of countries – India, Poland, Canada, Germany, China, Russia, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Spain, Britain, France, Pakistan, Netherlands and Indonesia. Only those from India chose the US as their first pick. Australia and Canada were the top choices of most of the other countries.

Maybe people from other countries – at least those from Europe and Asia - no longer look to the US as a beacon of hope. However, I think that we are still a beacon of hope to the Latin American countries.

Here’s another example of our wishful thinking. In a review of Clyde Prestowiz’s new book, “Three Billion New Capitalists”, it is stated that our Grade 12 students rank in the lowest 10% in math studies, but the students rank first in their assessment of their own performance.

You can only live in a dream world for so long. Reality eventually intrudes.

Let's hope he's wrong

I really really hope that this is not what it sounds like. "This" being the murder of a relative of an Iraqi diplomat as reported today by the BBC.

It really is BIG

Everything about Boston's "Big Dig" seems to be on a scale that we mortals cannot imagine. The contractor has asked the state for $500,000 to copy documents requested by investigators. At a penny a page, that's 50,000,000 pages to be copied!

Fiction becomes reality?

In two days Tempel 1 will be a name people will be talking about. It's the comet that Nasa's Deep Impact spacecraft will be crashing into on July 4. Nasa's web site on this is pretty cool.

Another example of 21st century democracy in action

The shutdown of the Minnesota state government is another example of the inability of the current crop of politicians – both state and federal – to compromise. I’m sure that we’ll see more of this intransigence when the process to replace Justice O’Connor begins. I’ve heard that the GOP has allocated $18,000,000 for advertisements in this battle, while the Democrats are preparing as though they were going to war.

I’d like to say that this contretemps is largely because we have moved to professional politicians. In part it is. But Tip O’Neill and Arthur Vandenberg and Howard Baker and Sam Ervin were professional politicians and they realized the necessity of solving problems even if you don’t fully agree with the exact form of the solution. Maybe I’m just being a crotchety old man.

We need to change our politicians. However, this will never happen until we change the way voting districts are defined. Right now, they are defined solely to benefit the incumbents.