Who or what do you subsidize?

Each year the European Union spends $179.28 per head of cattle, $28.93 per sheep and gives $16.11 to each poor person in the developing world. Or, at least that's what the Center for Global Development says. The Center has developed the Commitment to Development Index that seeks to measure the contributions of 21 rich countries to alleviating poverty in the developing world. The countries have stated their intention to do so. The index measures how well these intentions are fulfilled in seven areas: foreign aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security and technology. The Netherlands and the Scandanavian countries typically top the index. The U.S. is in the middle and Japan is dead last.

One thing the index shows is that farmers wield a lot of power; the EU is not alone in spending more on animals than on the poor in developing countries. Cattle ranchers seem to have the most clout as their annual per head subsidy ranges from $2.66 to $987.58, with an average of $92.59.

Day That Changed The World?

I'm sure that we will soon see a raft of articles about the fifth anniversary of 9/11. Most will refer to it as the day that changed everything. Foreign Policy has a different take: The Day Nothing Much Changed.

In the lead article, William Dobson, Managing Editor, argues that the real day that changed the world was December 31, 1991, the day the Soviet Union dissolved making the US the superpower in the world. In Dobson's view things are pretty much the same (and in most cases better) after 9/11 as they were before that date. Globalization keeps moving along. We talk about much the same things. Our foreign policy is no clearer. The economy has grown. Even tourism is stronger. Fourteen buildings taller than the Twin Towers are in some stage of construction around the world. More worker visas were granted and more foreigners naturalized in 2005 than in 1998. He attributes the current anti-Americanism to a fear becoming reality. Before 9/11 many feared America would become the sole dominant power. Well, it has.

Juan Cole, whose blog is Informed Consent, seconds Dobson's argument. China and Taiwan are still dueling over the same issues. The fate of Kashmir remains a bone of contention between India and Pakistan. The Middle East is still the same boiling pot.

Both Dobson and Cole make strong arguments. Certainly, September 11, 2001, has had less an effect on this country than December 7, 1941. On that December day this nation - and I mean the very vast majority - joined the world in fighting evil. We were all aware of the stakes and supported our country in the last just war. Now who is sacrificing to make the world better?

Talaq Talaq Talaq

If I were a Muslim in India and uttered the word "talaq" (which means divorce) three times, I would be divorced from my wife. It does not matter if I utter the word in my sleep, while inebriated or in a fit of anger. Say the word three times and we're kaput.

After being divorced, we can get back together again only if she marries a man of at least 70 years and lives with him for one day.

This sounds as weird as Warren Jeffs and his Fundamental Church of Latter Day Saints.

Does religion make some people crazy? Especially people who have some kind of power in a particular 'religion'.

Sunset on the Inside Passage

Alaska is a different state. It's the largest, yet, at the same time, our smallest. Physically, it is huge. But there are not many people there. Juneau, the capital, has about 30,000 residents. Only Anchorage exceeds 100,000. Ketchikan, at 12,000, is the fourth or fifth largest city. Outdoorsmen enjoy it the most. Since I neither fish nor hunt, I had to "make do" with watching the scenery and talking with some of the natives. Some of the scenery is the most spectacular in the world.

Because Alaska is isolated, is difficult to reach and has fairly small cities, it seems to attract people very much like many who come to the island of Martha's Vineyard - people who have had some problems living in 21st century America, people who are trying to find themselves by getting closer to nature while living an independent life.

Its ferry system is very different from that of the Vineyard. The Alaska Marine Highway System handles much larger boats with far fewer workers. On a boat that could carry 900 passengers and approximately 100+ cars, they had 4 people (not counting crewmen) loading people and cars. Here on the Island the Steamship Authority has perhaps double the number of people loading people and cars onto boats with smaller capacities.

Its economy did not match my expectations. In general, prices were reasonable, especially when compared to the Vineyard. You can find a decent hotel room for about $150 a night. Dining out was cheaper than the Vineyard. Housing was less than half of what we pay here.

I was also struck by the people's description of their winters. I picture the typical Alaskan winter as pretty tough with lots of snow and very low temperatures. That is not the case with Southeastern Alaska. The winter is milder than ours except for the wind, which can average over 50 miles per hour.

Overall, it was one of the most relaxing vacations we have taken. I actually felt rested when we returned. But, it's over now. Back to the salt mines tomorrow.

The Two That Didn't Get Away

There are many areas in which I am quite naive. Fishing is one of them. My understanding was that basically you put your hook in the water and, when the fish took the bait, you reeled it in. End of story. Our trip to Alaska dissuaded me of such naivete.

My daughter and son-in-law caught a couple of halibut while we were at their cabin. One weighed 95 pounds, the other 206. Again, I thought that when you went deep-sea fishing you did the same thing as fresh-water fishing, the fish may be bigger, the effort greater, but still a fairly basic task. Hooking the fish was the easy part (I'm sure Victoria and Jedd would disagree.) It was everything that came after that was an education for me.

After the fish was on the line and Victoria was trying to reel it in, Jedd started moving the boat in very tiny increments to help with the reeling in. After about 45 minutes in which my daughter is working with this fish that is taller than she is and outweighs her by 75 pounds or more, the fish can be seen as it comes out of the water.

Getting the fish in the boat was the first step in my education in the 'art' of fishing. Jedd ties a harpoon to a buoy and throws the harpoon into the fish's mouth. The smaller fish didn't exactly like having a sharp implement thrown down its gullet so it dives and tries to get rid of it and the hook; the larger fish, I guess, was too old to fight anymore. Eventually, the fish gives up. Now begins the task of getting the fish in the boat. Neither Jedd nor Victoria weighs 200 pounds so getting the fish in is not easy. Fortunately, there is a door in the boat so that they don't have to lift the fish as high as others might. Using a gaff or two they get the fish in the boat.

The fish is bleeding and blood is spattered over the boat and the fishers. But the fish is still alive. Apparently, some people shoot the fish either just before or after it is brought into the boat. Jedd kills it by stabbing it. Now the real work begins.

The fish is cut into pieces. With the larger fish this takes 3 hours. Then, Jedd being fastidious, the boat needs to be cleaned ("a clean boat is a happy boat"). Another couple of hours of work. They're still not finished.

What do you do with the carcass? Well, you use it as bait for your crab pots, which are a 15-minute boat ride away - and another 15 - 30 minutes to pull up the pot, cut and load the carcass into the pot and lower the pot again.

Of course, the fish needs to be brought home to the Northeast. Ergo, it must be frozen and packed. Another hour or so is spent washing and drying the fish, vacuum packing and then freezing it. This work only gets the fish ready to be flown home. Three large coolers have to be taken to the airport and checked in with the airline. Jedd carries the coolers in and then out when they arrive at their destination. Finally, the fish goes in their home freezer, ready to be eaten over the next several months.

Of course, as the naive father-in-law, I get to enjoy the fish without lifting a finger, as Jedd and Victoria will be giving us a cooler full of fish when we visit next.

Off to the North

We're leaving for Alaska today. So, no more blogging until the end of the month. Maybe the world will be a little bit better then.

The Plan is not working

al-Maliki's June security plan did not work well in July. According to the Iraqi numbers, 3438 civilians were killed in July, more than in any other month. This brings a total of 17,776 civilian deaths this year. And many authorities feel that thsi count is understated.

Think Twice

If you're from Massachusetts, you probably have a vision of Osterville as a bastion of the rich. Read Brian McGrory's column in today's Globe and you may change your opinion a little bit.

Hezbollah was defeated

So says our President. Somehow it doesn't look that way to me and a heck of a lot others. Most commentators on the radio and in the press seems to think that the US was one of the secondary losers.

We are strange creatures

This Fall will see the ashes of 140 people shot into space and then dropped back down to earth. The ashes of Scotty from Star Trek and astronaut Gordon Cooper will be among the 140.

More talking about Iran

In this week's New Yorker Seymour Hersh has another article about preparations for war with Iran. It's a subject that he is now reporting about on a monthly basis.

Now he is talking about the relationship between the Lebanon situation and how, in the opinion of many of Hersh's contacts, that situation was looked at as a trial run for Iran. It was felt that trying to wipe out Hezbollah's underground fortifications would be a test of how to do the same with Iran's underground installations. Perhaps fortunately for the world, the Lebanese war is not going very well for Israel, our surrogate. In fact, it seems to have unified the Arab world. Such a reaction would cause the rational person to think twice about the plan. Whether this will deter the crusaders for democracy in the administration is the question.

One of Hersh's sources, a Pentagon consultant, says that the use of intelligence vis-a-vis Iran reminds him of the run-up to Iraq, "...all of the important stuff is being sent directly to the top - at the insistence of the White House - and is not being analyzed at all, or scarcely. It's an awful policy and violates all of the NSA strictures, and if you complain about it you're out."

Israel has bet a lot on being very, very tough in this war. Is it working? An answer to this question is, in fact, a question posed by a European intelligence officer, "How do you scare people who love martyrdom?"

Focusing is not always the wisest choice

Homeland Security seems to have a fetish about airports and airplanes. Yet, more of us travel to work every day by car, bus and train than fly around the world. Each day more of us are in office buildings than airport terminals.

Do terrorists have the same fetish? They didn't in Bali, Madrid, London, Chechnya, Oklahoma City, the original attempt on the World Trade Center. Why is DHS so focused on air travel?

Surprise!

An excerpt from William Arkins' column in the Washington Post:

And the TSA was doing what the TSA always does, fighting the last war.

If liquids are a threat to airline safety and not just a prop in Michael Chertoff's press conference, then why hadn’t Homeland Security and TSA dealt with them months ago, when the intelligence agencies became aware of the British investigation (July 2005)? Why not after 9/11 in the first place? After all, there’s the already thwarted "Bojinka" plot, originally hatched and planned by al-Qaeda in 1995, to blow up airliners simultaneously over the Pacific Ocean.

If the TSA and Homeland Security KNEW that liquids could be used as explosives and they did nothing, particularly if they did nothing so as not to disrupt the British investigation, then indeed little has changed since 9/11. The government has promised us is that it is no longer going to hoard information and investigate endlessly If it comes upon actionable intelligence, the government claims, it is going to use it to protect citizens first.

The flying public should be incensed that a threat known to the security types since at least 1995 has slipped through the cracks. The flying public should be incensed that after five years, the Department of Homeland Security hasn’t solved some the most basic airline security screening tasks and still depends upon panic and over-reaction as the primary means to get the desultory screeners to go beyond their rote routines.

Over $4

Well, the Vineyard leads the nation once more. A gallon of gas can now be bought for $4.09 9/10. That's about 65 cents more than the average cost of a gallon on the mainland. Does it cost that much to ship gasoline three miles? Or are there too many gas stations here?

Some sensible words on Lamont/Lieberman

Although you'll find this in an economic blog (Economist's View), Paul Krugman is more than an economist.

Bergen, Belsen, Auschwitz, Nuremberg...........

Will future generations look on Abu Gharaib, Guantanamo, Iraq, etc. the same way we look at the Nazi horrors? The Blue Wren think so.

Words of wisdom

Instead of listening to the charges and countercharges from our leaders, both Democrat and Republican, read these words from the Financial Times:

Yet no system is perfectly secure, and even if the world's aircraft could be made secure at a reasonable cost in time and money, terrorists will always have other options as simple as truck bombs or explosives on trains and buses. There will be more attacks, perhaps deadly and dramatic ones.

The first response must be to adopt a foreign policy that saps terrorists of support without pandering to their demands. It should not be necessary to remind either the US or the British government that it is not possible simply to kill or catch all the terrorists until there are none left - a pointless strategy based on what one might call the "lump of terror" fallacy.

The second response must be a sense of proportion. More than 3,000 people died last year on our roads, but the roads stay open. Even the worst acts of terrorism reap their largest toll in hysterical responses. Scotland Yard's statement that they had disrupted a plot to cause "mass murder on an unimaginable scale" was alarmist even if it is true. Journalists - and terrorists - are perfectly capable of spreading hyperbole without any help from the police. The most powerful answer to terrorism is not to be terrified.

I. M. Fantom

The CEO, CFO and General Counsel of Comverse Technology were charged yesterday by the SEC in a stock option scandal. The charges allege that backdating has been going on since 1991. It's the by now typical odds-defying practice: pick a date in the past when the price of your stock was lower than today and enter that date on the option grant; get a compliant or blind board to sign the deal and, voila, you're ahead a few dollars, in some case a few million dollars.

What is different about this case is that they invented employees to whom options were granted. These names were entered in a fund referred to by the name of "I. M. Fantom". Do you think that the people who cashed in on these options were not named Fantom, but had the same names as the three charged? I think that there is a very remote possibility of that happening.

Words from a financial genius

At the start of 2004 Mr. Snyder bought a house in St. Paul for $210,000. He 'paid' for it with an interest-only adjustable rate first mortgage of $168,000 and a second mortgage of $42,000 with a fixed rate of 9.4% for three years. Now, as his monthly payments have increased by $200, he is in a financial bind.

His comments, as quoted in today's Wall Street Journal, are, according to a recent survey, illustrative of 30% of mortgagees today, "If I had been aware both loans were interest-only, I would have probably turned the loan down." He claims that the terms of the mortgage were never properly explained to him.

What happened to Mr. Snyder's responsibility to himself and his family? Could he not read? Could he not ask questions if he did not understand?

Jinxed?

Today's Boston Globe reports of a memo received from the primary contractor of The Big Dig, Bechtel/Parsons Brinkerhoff, warning that the recent testing may have permanently damaged the bolts that were tested. Is Bechtel/Parsons trying to cover their arse? Or, should there be a genuine concern? As usual, the MTA says everything is okay.

Making money from Sharia

Malaysia has become the leader in the Islamic bond market, a market which is run according to principles of Sharia, one of which forbids charging interest. Malaysia is leveraging its prowess in the bond market to the full Islamic banking market. In its home base, Islamic retail banks now supply 12% of the nation's internal financing. It has managed three-fourths of the Islamic bond offerings world-wide. Even non-Muslim countries, such as China, are now issuing Islamic bonds.

Islamic banking is a fast growing market; it now holds about $250 billion in assets and is growing at 15% annually. In addition, $300 billion is invested in Islamic mutual funds.

How does a bank get around the Sharia prohibition against making money from money? Well, the bonds are linked to a pool of underlying tangible assets, such as an apartment building; it is these underlying assets that generate the profits the bond holders receive. Sounds fishy to me.

Six Long Wars

Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has written a fascinating paper, "Six Long Wars and Counting", which does not forecast a resounding success for us in the Middle East: "The US can lose quickly in some cases, but it cannot win quickly in any." Nor does he expect us to be out soon: "Almost regardless of level of violence involved, all of these conflicts now promise to involve religious, ideological, political, and perceptual struggles that will play out over at least a decade."

The six wars to which Cordesman refers are Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Palestine, Lebanon and the war on terrorism. In none of these cases can we act unilaterally; "success depends on international and local partners." (my emphasis)

He does not hold out much hope for either the administration or the Congress; "There are no good, quick or simple answers to any of the conflicts the US faces, but the importance of patient, bipartisan realism (my emphasis) is easy to illustrate." Cordesman believes that the upcoming elections reinforce our current partisanship; "Truth may be the first casualty of war, but it is the national interest that is the first casualty of domestic politics." The unseating of incumbents that occurred yesterday could be a start back towards realistic bipartisanship.

And they're gearing up for another escalation

"Every vehicle, whatever its nature, which travels south of the Litani will be bombed on suspicion of transporting rockets and arms for the terrorists," State of Israel in leaflets dropped on Lebanon.

Aid groups cannot deliver supplies to Tyre and surrounding areas. The UN World Food Program has stopped delivering food to southern villages. There is enough fuel for five more days of electricity in Lebanon. WHO warns that without fuel 60% of the hospitals will not function.

As this war approaches the end of month 1, there is still fighting around Bint Jbail and Hezbollah fired 150 rockets yesterday. The Israeli Security Cabinet meets today presumably to authorize a widening of the war.

"What is happening will sow the seeds of hatred and extremism in the area, and provide a pretext for those who feel that the international community is taking sides," the Foreign Minister of Qatar.

Privacy? What's That?

AOL recently published the search terms used over a three month period by 650,000 of its users. They say the data was collected in an attempt to benefit some unknown academic researchers. While no user names or screen names were used, the NY Times was able to find one of the users fairly easily. Since much of this data is apparently making its way around the Web, it's likely that other users will be identified. I'm glad that I don't use AOL, but what is Google and Yahoo doing about this?

Another view of signing statements

Lawrence Tribe, of Harvard Law, has a different view of the signing statements issue than does the ABA. While he agrees that Bush has abused the power, Tribe feels that signing statements can be of value in those cases where the legislation is ambiguous or in omnibus bills where the President may object to one section of a multi-sectioned bill.

He feels that the problem really is this administration's theory of the unitary executive as well as its abuse of powers in a number of areas, including signing statements. It is this theory that should be rejected as it violates Article I of the Constitution.

A Bad Day for Incumbents

At least three incumbents lost their primary races yesterday: Lieberman; McKinney, the Georgia Congresswoman involved in a scuffle with the Capitol Police; and Schwarz, a Republican Congressman from Michigan.

Change is good. Let's hope it continues in November.

India joins Somalia

Now some states in India have banned the manufacture and sale of both Coke and Pepsi. Unlike Somalia, which claimed that Coke violated the laws of the Koran, India claims the drinks are filled with pesticides.

Do you think that local soft drink companies are behind these bans?

Half Hulls

Yesterday was my day to find out what half hulls are. Steve Engh, a member of our Mens Group and one of two craftsmen creating them on the Island, gave us a presentation on the subject.

Half hulls were originally used as a - if not the - boat design tool. Now, they are considered art objects. They do require a lot of hand shaping and the patience to deal with tiny pieces of wood. The picture below is of a half hull before the real work - carving - begins. At this point Steve has spent a fair amount of time cutting these tiny pieces of wood according to plan and gluing them together in 'lifts'.




Here is an example of a finished half hull:

Election Day

It certainly seems odd to have people going to the polls in August. Yes, there is an election with, perhaps, national implications in Connecticut. There is also an election with strictly local implications here on Martha's Vineyard. Voters will choose a Selectman for the Town of Oak Bluffs.

The politics of Oak Bluffs has not had a sterling reputation over the years. This election is a perfect example of why. The reason for this election is the resignation of a selectman. He resigned to become Town Administrator for Oak Bluffs, which is one of the highest paying jobs on Martha's Vineyard. His appointment is a classic example of Oak Bluffs politics. The vacancy was advertised only in local papers. A nationwide search was not held; not even a statewide search was held. Did the Selectman resign felling quite confident that he would be appointed to what is a very good job here? You tell me.

There are four candidates. Two are from old Island families, one is from a less well-known Island family and the fourth has only been here about 20+ years. I suspect that the two "old Island family" candidates will cancel each other's votes. The less well-known Islander does not appear overly bright. It's likely that the election will go the the "wash ashore".

They need one heck of a lawyer

Three Boston policemen are accused of drug dealing. They were caught in an FBI sting. Unfortunately for the police officers, there is a video of the discussion they had when the first delivery was made. That video was shown in court yesterday and presents a heck of a challenge to the police officers' attorneys; I don't see how they can get their clients off.

An interesting sidelight by Brian McGrory, a Boston Globe columnist: Since 1999, 61 police officers have tested positive for cocaine, that's one every six weeks or so. I'm surprised that so many were caught when it is a common practice for cocaine testing to be done within a month of a police officer's birthday. Oh, there is no real penalty for testing positive. You're not fired. You get a few days off.

August 6, 1945

What have we learned?

"All news is bad news"

Read the cover story from this week's Time only if you don't want to get very depressed.

Vineyard sky at dusk August 4, 2006

The Fox and the Chicken Coop

This week Bush announced another great appointment. He has nominated Susan Dudley to be the administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, which approves all federal regulations (such as for the environment or the nation's health) deemed economically and otherwise significant. This is a natural job for someone who appears to be anti-government-regulations. As director of regulatory policy for the Mercatus Center, housed at George Mason University, she has been active in opposing many proposed regulations.

For example, she feels that fatigue in truck drivers who do not rest has not been systematically proven to contribute to highway deaths; that's kind of a logic-defying claim.

Or with regard to arsenic in our drinking water, she has said, "though evidence from other countries supports an association between arsenic and certain forms of cancer, the effect of exposure to the low doses present in the U.S. water supply is very uncertain, and science alone cannot determine the appropriate level [of protection]"; perhaps God can determine that level.

She does not feel that we are entitled to information about the effect of some chemicals, "Even if we determine that information on the release of certain chemicals has a net social value, we cannot assume that more frequently reported information, or information on a broader range of chemicals would be more valuable." What about an old bromide such as "The Truth will set you free"?

Here's some of the $5 billion

A few weeks ago I wrote about Lawrence Korb's contentions that the Defense Department wastes $5 billion annually. Well, the latest GAO reports show some places where that money is being wasted:

• DOD or any of its agencies cannot pass an independent audit. (Read that again.)
• Intellectual property rights are not obtained for many projects. This is especially harmful and costly for multi-year projects, some of which can last for decades. Not having the IP rights means it becomes very difficult and costly to make changes.
• Work began on the F-22A, the Air Force's next generation fighter, in 1986. Since then, "the Air Force has added new requirements, more than doubled the length of the acquisition schedule, cut purchase quantities by more than 75% and increased total acquisition unit costs by more than 100%".
• The GAO has been pointing out problems in DOD's supply chain management since 1990. DOD still does not have an effective plan for managing the supply chain. As a result, supplying our troops properly is at risk, plus our money is not being spent wisely.
• GAO employees were able to buy body armor, guided missile mounts, radar test sets, antennae and other sensitive military equipment at liquidation sales. Note that the GAO employees posed as private citizens. Some of these items are currently being bought new by the military; GAO was able to buy them at a fraction of the cost.
• DOD has received $430 billion for the global war on terror. They have trouble recording costs and matching costs to appropriations. As a result, planning for future needs is a real problem.

Anatomy of a fiasco

I haven't read Tom Ricks' book, "Fiasco", so I don't really know whether it should be #1 on the Wall Street Journal list or not. I do know that, based on this transcript from a Michael Krasny radio program (courtesy of Brad DeLong), he has some interesting things to say about the war in Iraq. Mostly, Ricks blasts Congress and the military; Congress because it has looked the other way, the military because it has not analyzed its actions. He goes back to a fundamental principle of sound management: frequent self-examination. Both the military and Congress never did question what was happening. Nor did they have the interest in understanding Iraqis, a violation of another basic management principle: understand your market.

Ricks finds it odd that no general has been removed in this war, whereas in most of our previous wars we did replace generals who were not getting the job done. Ricks saves his sharpest criticism for Franks, recipient of the Medal of Freedom. In Ricks' view, Franks' "war plan helped create the insurgency" due to a total misreading of the situation so that there was no follow-up plan after Iraq had fallen.

Paul Bremer, another Medal of Freadom winner, is blasted for his dismantling of the Iraqi army, another aid for the insurgency. Note that this dismantling occurred after we had been dropping leaflets for years in Iraq; the leaflets said that they should not fight us, we would take care of them. Well, we did. We fired them and gave them a reason to join the insurgency.

Ricks feels that we need to stay in Iraq, but we should cut the number of soldiers to 50,000 or so and use the money saved (about$1.5 billion a week) to give the Iraqi military the training they need to defend their country, rather than their sect.

Ricks comes back again and again to the need to see reality. For example, in the military's view the Green Zone is secure if there are no deaths. Such a premise leaves out the daily thefts, rapes, assaults, intimidation that goes on and makes life hell even for those Iraqis living in the Green Zone.

Another of Ricks' themes is how this war is unlike WW II. Instead of uniting the nation by enlisting the aid of all parties, our leaders seem intent on winning the argument and, in fact, seldom countenancing an argument. Instead of supplying enough troops to help restore order and security to Iraq, we've hired mercenaries, whose job is not to win the peace but to ensure that they get paid.

I don't think I'll read the book. I'm depressed enough.

The Committee notes with concern

Well, a draft of the final report by the UN Human Rights Committee with regard to US compliance to the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman and Degrading Treatment and Punishment and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights has been published. Its conclusions with regard to our compliance are not favorable. Not only does the report address the war on terrorism issues, it also concludes that we have problems with regard to racial discrimination, prisons, illegal immigrants, Indian rights, women workers, police brutality, medical experimentation, representation of DC residents and gay people. It sounds like an indictment that we are not abiding by our own Constitution. It is a discouraging document to read and forces one to ask the question of what kind of a nation have we become.

This is not a problem only of the Bush administration. The report we submitted relative to our compliance was seven years late; i.e., the Clinton administration did not meet its obligations in terms of the timeliness of submitting a report either.

Not only did we submit the report late but we "refused to address certain serious allegations of violations of rights" and we did not provide "information on the implementation of the Covenant in respect of individuals under its jurisdiction and outside its territory".

Have they changed their mind?

Supposedly on the Larry King show Condi will say that the U.S. is moving "towards being able to do this in phases that will permit first an end or a stoppage in the hostilities and based on the establishment on some very important principles for how we move forward." One translation of the preceding is a call for an immediate cease fire rather than a total plan to solve the Israel-Hezbollah situation. If so, maybe the administration is smartening up.

Declaring Victory

That's the title of James Fallows' latest Atlantic Monthly report on terrorism. As with most of his articles, this one is based on conversations with military people, intelligence people and think tank pundits. However, one has to wonder about the opinions of these "authorities", as "most of these people had supported the decision to invade Iraq", which decision, in my book now and in early 2003, will go down as the biggest mistake the US has made in the post-WWII world.

The first three-quarters of the article establishes that al-Qaeda is not the threat now that it was in 2001. We have been able to drastically reduce its effectiveness. However, there is an assumption by Fallows and his 'authorities' that none of the other terrorist organizations that have come of age in the 21st century has the ability to mount a major attack such as 9/11. I question this assumption in light of difficulties Israel is experiencing in its attempt to quash Hezbollah.

It's in the last few pages that Fallows earns his fee. He reminds us that, while "the terrorists ...can damage but not destroy us, their real destructive power lies in what they can provoke us to do." It is time, he says, to declare the global war on terrorism over and declare victory, recognizing that in the final analysis life is risky and, at some point, we will suffer another terrorist attack. However, our war on terror is, except for the guys getting killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, a war in words only. We at home have not been asked to sacrifice. Being at war puts us in a state of fear where we are likely to overreact and do stupid things, such as the shameful camps at Guantanamo. Being at war has impeded any efforts at diplomacy. It has distracted us from seriously trying to solve our other problems. Homeland Security is focused on preventing an attack, but an attack is inevitable; we should be focused on handling the aftermath of an attack.

He concludes the article with the following:

Now we could use a leader to help us understand victory and its consequences. We are ready for a message like this one:

My fellow Americans, we have achieved something almost no one thought possible five years ago. The nation did not suffer the quick follow-up attacks so many people feared and expected. Our troops found the people who were responsible for the worst attack ever on our soil. We killed many, we captured more, and we placed their leaders in a position where they could not direct the next despicable attack on our people—and where the conscience of the world’s people, of whatever faith, has turned against them for their barbarism. They have been a shame to their own great faith, and to all other historic standards of decency.

Achieving this victory does not mean the end of threats. Life is never free of dangers. I wish I could tell you that no American will ever again be killed or wounded by a terrorist—and that no other person on this earth will be either. But I cannot say that, and you could not believe me if I did. Life brings risk—especially life in an open society, like the one that people of this land have sacrificed for centuries to create.

We have achieved a great victory, and for that we can give thanks—above all to our troops. We will be at our best if we do not let fear paralyze or obsess us. We will be at our best if we instead optimistically and enthusiastically begin the next chapter in our nation’s growth. We will deal with the struggles of our time. These include coping with terrorism, but also recognizing the huge shifts in power and resulting possibilities in Asia, in Latin America, in many other parts of the world. We will recognize the challenges of including the people left behind in the process of global development—people in the Middle East, in Africa, even in developed countries like our own. The world’s scientists have never before had so much to offer, so fast—and humanity has never needed their discoveries more than we do now, to preserve the world’s environment, to develop new sources of energy, to improve the quality of people’s lives in every corner of the globe, to contain the threats that modern weaponry can put into the hands of individuals or small groups.

The great organizing challenge of our time includes coping with the threat of bombings and with the political extremism that lies behind it. That is one part of this era’s duty. But it is not the entirety. History will judge us on our ability to deal with the full range of this era’s challenges—and opportunities. With quiet pride, we recognize the victory we have won. And with the determination that has marked us through our nation’s history, we continue the pursuit of our American mission, undeterred by the perils that we will face.

Different leaders will choose different words. But the message—of realism, of courage, and of optimism despite life’s difficulties—is one we need to hear.

The Power of Prayer

My English friend, R.J. Adams, should have a word or two to say about the Lincolnshire police department's new strategy for combating crime.

You never asked me to defuse them

The prosecution in the Bangladesh trial of Islamic militants introduced five bombs as evidence. Problem was the bombs were live. They had not been defused. The police say no one asked them to do so. I guess they only do what they are told.

I'm not anti-American

I just believe that one should face facts and that, in so doing, one has an opportunity to make changes to improve situations. We are very chauvinistic in this country; many, if not most, Americans are convinced that we are God's gift to mankind and live in the best of all possible worlds. Well, we are a great country and have done many good things for mankind. But, as an upcoming book, "State of Working America 2006/2007", shows we are not the perfect country of our dreams. You may argue that the book is put out by the Economic Policy Institute, a union-backed think tank, and is biased against capitalism. Except that the numbers they use come from the OECD, which is held in high regard by most rational people. The numbers show that there are some vital areas where the reality of America in the 21st century does not live up to the imagination of many Americans.

For example, compared to other developed countries, we have more inequality, higher poverty rates, an expensive but poorly performing health system for the less advantaged. Believers agree that there is inequality but say it's the price for greater mobility, more opportunity and stronger job growth than other countries. Unfortunately, the numbers don't back up these contentions as well as they should, particularly for poor people. The low-income family is better off in other countries. While we have one of the highest per-capita incomes, at least half of this is due to our working more hours.

Looking carefully at some of the charts in this book should cause most people to think twice about where this country is today and ask themselves how we can all make more of the American dream a reality for more Americans.

I can do it, you can't

Today is my day for reading Foreign Policy in Focus. The site has many worthwhile articles; I'll have to look at it more often.

Here's an article by Steven Nunes parsing Congress' resolution re the current Israel-Lebanon-Hamas-Hezbollah situation. Nunes makes the point that we seem to like to do things that we don't want our enemies doing, particularly with regard to international law.

Money talks or does it?

Foreign Policy in Focus has a brief commentary entitled "Who's Arming Israel" which argues that, because of the aid we supply to Israel, we should have - and should use - this leverage to demand a cease-fire.

How much money are we talking about? Israel is the largest recipient of both direct foreign aid and the Pentagon's Foreign Military Financing. For the past twenty years, each Israeli has received over $400 per year from the US.

That's a good piece of change. Yet, we allow Israel to begin what may turn out to be WW III.

America, you are not alone

France also has seemingly incompetent and unaware people working at the highest level. This from FP Passport, the blog of Foreign Policy Magazine:

The crisis in Lebanon is putting French diplomacy front and center. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, the former colonial power - and the likely leader of any international peacekeeping mission in Lebanon - France must be an integral part of any solution. Even the Weekly Standard is running articles about how important France's role is. But sadly, the current foreign minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, is no Cardinal Richelieu. He's not even a worthy successor to Dominique De Villepin and Michel Barnier, which is saying something.

Le Monde did a devastating take-down piece on the Foreign Minister back in April, including details on how Jacques Chirac has a civil servant follow Douste-Blazy with a tape recorder to capture any missteps, Douste-Blazy's tendency to confuse Taiwan with Thailand, and other diplomatic bloopers. The IHT has a great summary of the piece and translated this tragically comic anecdote:

[A]t the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial in Jerusalem last September, Le Monde said, Douste-Blazy stopped at a map recording the Jewish communities in European countries before and after World War II.

"Were there no Jews killed in Britain?" he asked. "But Mr. Minister, Britain was never occupied by the Nazis," the curator replied. To which Douste-Blazy shot back: "But were no Jews expelled from Britain?"

And this is one of the people the world is relying on to stop the current fighting from spiraling out of control! For once I find myself hoping that Jacques Chirac takes personal charge.

James Forsyth

The Inspector General Reports

The July report of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction has been given to Congress. It reports one good thing - the production of oil and gas has surpassed the pre-war levels - and a few bad things:

• Security is still a major problem
• Corruption is rife, one-third of Iraqis say they've had to bribe someone in the past year
• Transition planning is still weak
• There are 82 open investigations into fraud and corruption.

Wolfowitz criticizes Bush Administration

Paul Wolfowitz, one of the architects of the Iraq disaster, continues to do a good job as head of the World Bank. This time he has pointed out the large drop in our contribution to the International Development Association, a World Bank agency that provides favorable financing to some of the world's poorest and most heavily indebted countries, many of them located in sub-Saharan Africa. We've gone from providing 20% of the agency's funding to 13%.