Pakistan

Ben Arnoldy thinks it’s almost impossible for the Taliban to succeed in Pakistan.

• The geography is against them. If they move away from the Frontier they become more exposed. “If you have 100 truckloads of Taliban on the Peshawar Highway, all you need is two helicopter gunships" to wipe them out, says Rifaat Hussain, a military expert at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad.

• They will have trouble once they move to non-Pashtun areas as well as wealthier and more modern areas of Pakistan


• They are outgunned. 5000 Taliban vs. 500,000 Army soldiers.


• They are hated by the people they have ‘conquered’.

But, they have been able to infiltrate major Pakistani cities where they have bombed themselves and others into oblivion.

Arnoldy concludes with this warning: “In other words, the real threat isn't the Taliban occupying urban territory. It's their ability to attract followers and sow chaos. One reason given for the conversions: US meddling. "The mujahideen are not the products of the madrasas," says Syed Yousef Shah, who heads one of the largest religious schools. "They are the product of American actions." He argues that the militants attack because of its cooperation with America and its intervention in the region. "A person whose house is destroyed by a drone attack and sees his parents and his brothers dead, what will he do? A suicide attack demands no lecture."

Yet, Lawrence Korb etal think the problem won’t be solved only in Pakistan by Pakistanis. We’ve got to get deeply involved. They recommend:

1. Build on recent regional and international diplomatic initiatives such as the trilateral U.S.-Pakistan-Afghanistan talks and the Friends of Pakistan forum.

2. Initiate a comprehensive diplomatic engagement with a broad range of Pakistani institutions and actors.

3. Formulate and sign a bilateral strategic framework agreement with Pakistan

4. Strengthen the police and judicial component of counterterrorism assistance.

5. Increase assistance for internally displaced persons.

6. Enhance efforts to keep Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal safe and secure.

7. Launch a comprehensive effort to advance Pakistani civilian government capacity and expertise in coordination with proposed bilateral development assistance increases.

8. Include careful oversight and accounting mechanisms in assistance legislation.

9. Reform the leading institutions of U.S. diplomacy and foreign development assistance.

10. Engage with Congress and the American people on the importance of Pakistan.

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