It certainly sounds strange but an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences makes the claim. The argument is based on improvements in medical care so that older people are able to continue to be productive members of the work force. The authors believe that studies predicting deficits ignore the fact that people are living longer, healthier lives and a certain proportion of these people will continue to work into their 70s and 80s and, thus, our productivity will continue to increase at an annual growth in GDP of 3.2%.
Much of their work is based on a 1994 study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which projected that Medicare expenditures in 2004 would be $361 billion. The actual number was $268 billion, the difference being due, in the authors' opinions, to the failure by the BLS to fully consider all of the benefits of a longer, healthier life.
The authors made their own projection of the 2004 Medicare costs and came up with $268 billion, a lot closer to the actual number. Of course, I can't figure out when they made this projection. Furthermore I ask myself some basic questions:
Will enough oldsters want to continue to work?
What kinds of jobs will they hold?
How much will they be paid?
How productive will they really be?
They raise an interesting point. How likely is their conclusion?
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