Ben Connable of the Rand Corporation has studied insurgencies around the world since WW II. Would you believe there have been 89 in the 65 years since the war ended? His study is sobering. On average insurgencies last 10 years, but the government does not put it to bed for at least another six years and will not be able to put it to bed unless it addresses the basic grievances that fomented the insurgency. He claims that the Taliban issue emanates from grievances the Pashtun have had for centuries. Also dispiriting is Connable's finding that those insurgencies that have been able to find sanctuary in another country (e.g., the Taliban in Pakistan) eventually succeed twice as often as they fail.
The article is not one to read if you are feeling the least bit down.
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