Were they wrong?

The following ad appeared in the NY Times of September 26, 2002. The war started on March 19, 2003.  Should we have listened to this ad?

WAR WITH IRAQ
IS NOT IN AMERICA'S
NATIONAL INTEREST

As scholars of international security affairs, we recognize that war is sometimes necessary to ensure our national security or other vital interests. We also recognize that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and that Iraq has defied a number of U.N. resolutions. But military force should be used only when it advances U.S. national interests. War with Iraq does not meet this standard.

• Saddam Hussein is a murderous despot, but no one has provided credible evidence that Iraq is cooperating with al Qaeda.
• Even if Saddam Hussein acquired nuclear weapons, he could not use them without suffering massive U.S. or Israeli retaliation.
• The first Bush administration did not try to conquer Iraq in 1991 because it understood that doing so could spread instability in the Middle East, threatening U.S. interests. This remains a valid concern today.
• The United States would win a war against Iraq, but Iraq has military options—chemical and biological weapons, urban combat—that might impose significant costs on the invading forces and neighboring states.
• Even if we win easily, we have no plausible exit strategy. Iraq is a deeply divided society that the United States would have to occupy and police for many years to create a viable state.
• Al Qaeda poses a greater threat to the U.S. than does Iraq. War with Iraq will jeopardize the campaign against al Qaeda by diverting resources and attention from that campaign and by increasing anti-Americanism around the globe.

The United States should maintain vigilant containment of Iraq—using its own assets and the resources of the United Nations—and be prepared to invade Iraq if it threatens to attack America or its allies. That is not the case today. We should concentrate instead on defeating al Qaeda.

Robert J. Art

Brandeis University

Richard K. Betts

Columbia University

Dale C. Copeland

University of Virginia

Michael C. Desch

University of Kentucky

Sumit Ganguly

University of Texas

Charles L. Glaser

University of Chicago

Alexander L. George

Stanford University

Richard K. Herrmann

Ohio State University

George C. Herring

University of Kentucky

Robert Jervis

Columbia University

Chaim Kaufmann

Lehigh University

Carl Kaysen

MIT

Elizabeth Kier

University of Washington

Deborah Larson

UCLA

Jack S. Levy

Rutgers University

Peter Liberman

Queens College

John J. Mearsheimer

University of Chicago

Steven E. Miller

Harvard University

Charles C. Moskos

Northwestern University

Robert A. Pape

University of Chicago

Barry R. Posen

MIT

Robert Powell

UC—Berkeley

George H. Quester

University of Maryland

Richard Rosecrance

UCLA

Thomas C. Schelling

University of Maryland

Randall L. Schweller

Ohio State University

Glenn H. Snyder

University of North Carolina

Jack L. Snyder

Columbia University

Shibley Telhami

University of Maryland

Stephen van Evera

MIT

Stephen M. Walt

Harvard University

Kenneth N. Waltz

Columbia University

Cindy Williams

MIT

Institutions listed for identification purposes only.

Paid for by the signatories and individual contributors (773-702-8667; 617-495-5712).