Moving beyond oil

Charles Mann has a fascinating but lengthy article about the world's supply of energy and the various forms we have used - wood, coal, oil, natural gas, wind, sun.  Surprisingly, he does not mention nuclear energy.  Nor does he say very much about the environmental costs of such techniques as fracking.

One of the primary points he makes is that we have consistently been able to develop new techniques for extracting energy from the earth.  It does take a long period time to develop the technologies, but we have done so up to now.  The problem is that climate change is moving so fast that we may not have time today.

One example of the effect of technology on the development of energy is the Kern River oil field in California.  Drilling of the field began in 1899.  In 1949 analysts estimated there were 47,000,000 barrels left in the reserve.  In the next 40 years, 945,000,000 barrels were produced.  At that point, 1989, the estimate of the reserve was increased to 697,000,000 barrels.  In the next twenty years 1.3 billion barrels were produced and the estimated reserve was still close to 600,000,000 barrels.  These analysts are obviously not stupid people, yet they were fantastically wrong here and in many other places.

Land is not the only area to mine for energy.  Since the 1970s we have been trying to mine the sea for crystalline natural gas known as methane hydrate.  Estimates of how much methane hydrate exists in the oceans range from 100 times more than America's current annual energy consumption to 3 million times.  Some expect we will be producing methane hydrate within ten years.

Another issue Mann discusses is oil as both an energy source and a source of political power.  Would we pay any attention to Saudi Arabia if they were not an oil power?  If the world does move to methane hydrate, what would the oil nations do to preserve their political power?

And then if we are mining the seas, what are the risks of conflict between nations?

We are currently lucky because of the boom in natural gas.  But, it too has problems.  Mann is a believer in renewable energy.  However, the costs of converting to renewables is astronomical and conversion cannot happen overnight.  Just think of the effort and money needed to revamp the electrical power grid.  Can we do it in time to save the planet?