Polling is more difficult in the 21st century

An article by Cliff Zukin, past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, brought back memories of the effect of a rising ownership of telephones had on forecasting the results of a presidential election, perhaps one in the late 1940s. Zukin ascribes a fair amount of the recent poor polling results to the rise of the cellphone. First of all, it has increased the cost of polling. The 1991 Telephone Consumer Protection  prohibits the calling of cellphones through automatic dialers. Paid staff now has to dial as well as poll. 

The response rate has also gone downhill. In the late 1970s, an 80 percent response rate was typical. By the late 1990s it was 36 percent; in 2014 it had sunk to 8 percent. Some pollsters have gone to the internet. But, here again there are problems. This time it's age and voting habits. While all but 3 percent of those ages 18 to 29 use the Internet, they made up just 13 percent of the 2014 electorate, according to the exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Some 40 percent of those 65 and older do not use the Internet, but they made up 22 percent of voters.