Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Emerging Economies: Good or Bad for US?

Maybe I’m just waking up or I could simply be a slow learner. Whatever the reason, I am only just now starting to worry (perhaps I’ve become a worry wart in my old age!) about the emerging economies, particularly China and India, and their impact on us.

For example, one of the reasons for the significant rise in the price of oil is China’s growing need for energy. Yes, there are other reasons – the war, declining exploration for two – but the demand for energy by a new economic power is something unknown in the world as we have known it. That world was one dominated by the United States, Europe and Japan. Things are changing. I suspect this change is akin to the rise of the US in the 20th century. We do live in a finite world. Recalibrating the use of our finite resources will be no mean feat.

A recent Wall Street Journal article talked about our recent trade deficit in food, of all things. While this particular deficit is only for the past quarter or two, some feel that there will be a food deficit for the entire year. This has not happened for many years. The article ascribed several reasons to the deficit. One really caught my eye: competition. We are experiencing real agricultural competition now. Russia, which could not get enough of our wheat, is now exporting its wheat. Brazil is a strong factor in the soy bean market. McDonald’s imports 20% of its needs from Australia and New Zealand. Vietnam supplies a lot of shrimp to us. Europe doesn’t like our genetically modified food.

We, as a nation, have always championed competition over cooperation. Can we continue to do so? Can we become more competitive? It’s very hard to become competitive when

  • we are fighting a war which asks for zero sacrifices from the home front,

  • our overall deficit is at its highest in history and there appears to be little effort on our leaders part to do something about it,

  • real income of the working class is declining,

  • we are more concerned with mouthing about values rather than incorporating into our own lives the values that made this country great,

  • our business leaders are overly focused on the current quarter,

  • and on and on………………….


    1 comment:

    R J Adams said...

    I am so glad you have noticed this. As someone able to view America through unbiased eyes, due to my recent arrival here, I have become more and more aware of a gradual, but perceptible decline in this nation’s prosperity, compared to even five years ago. Not only is the Chinese economy booming, it is booming at America’s expense. Shopping at Wal-Mart proves that beyond doubt. The biggest world retailer buys its products from China, and the Chinese economy grows fat on American dollars.
    Europe is less reliant on American technology since the advent of the Common Market and even the lucrative trade in American weapons systems is declining as projects like ‘Eurofighter’ come online. Also, many European companies are buying up small U.S. weapons manufacturers, so the profits benefit Europe, not America.
    As you note, India is yet another expanding nation with a booming economy. These are rising stars. The U.S. will find itself hard pressed to maintain its status as the only global superpower, and may well suffer economically over the next twenty years. President Bush appears totally oblivious to all this, blinkered by his crusade against a Biblical Satanism.
    It seems inconceivable that America could follow Russia into ruin, but some experts agree this country is already bankrupted by the Iraqi war, and with a president unable to control his egotistical spending sprees, frankly I am gloomy about the future.