Is China on the path to decay? Minxin Pei, Director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, thinks so. His article in this month's Foreign Policy argues that "rampant corruption, vast waste and an elite with little interest in making things better" is more likely to result in decay than democracy.
Some of his claims have been reported in this blog: the gap between the cities and the countryside, the poor medical system, the pollution. Pei feels that the state's large position in the economy (the state employs one-third of the work force, 56% of the industrial assets and is directly responsible for 38% of China's GDP) is one of the factors affecting China negatively. Not only does this control have economic implications (state enterprises earned a median of 1.5% on assets in 2003), it also carries the seeds of corruption in that the regime mixes patronage with its power.
Pei makes some interesting points. Most people realize that China has a way to go to be considered a developed nation, but they seem to be taking the right steps (albeit slow steps) in order to get there. Time, as always, will let us know whether they make it.
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