Sunday, April 09, 2006

Provincial Stability Assessment

That's the title of a report prepared by the US Embassy in Iraq, the military in Baghdad and some people from reconstruction agencies. The report, which was obtained by the NY Times, is dated January 31, 2006. It differs quite a bit from the assessments made by Bush, Cheney etal in March.

The report looks at the political, economic and security situations in Iraq's eighteen provinces. It concludes that the overall stability of six of these provinces is serious and in one critical. Further, it appears that the ethnic and religious splits are becoming even more hardened. Couple these splits with reports of mass migrations from mixed Shiite-Sunni areas and you are moving towards a three Iraq situation - Shiite, Sunni and Kurd. Wasn't this partitioning talked about a couple of years ago? Will this be the final resolution of the situation?

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