Games people play

Strategic Studies Institute records some of the thoughts of Roger Myerson, winner of the 2007 Nobel in Economics, about game theory and the strategies of nations. Here is a summary from the foreword by Douglas Lovelace, the director of the institute.

The main conclusion is that a great power’s use of its military forces may be rendered ineffective or even counterproductive when there are no clear internationally recognizable limits on this use of force. Professor Myerson derives this conclusion from the basic observation that our ability to influence potential rivals depends on a balanced mix of threats and promises. Potential adversaries should believe that aggression will be punished, but such threats will be useless unless they also believe our promises that good behavior will be better rewarded. A reputation for resolve makes threats credible, but a great power also needs a reputation for restraint, to make the promises credible as well. Thus, international restraints on a nation’s use of military force may actually increase the effective influence of its military strength. So this monograph may be read as a contribution to our understanding of the vital relationship between diplomacy and military preparedness in defense of national security.