Friday, May 15, 2009

Maybe Not As Gloomy As Projected

There have been a number of articles about the problems with Social Security and Medicare in recent days. The Center for Economic Policy and Research argues that it is not so bad. Should things get better for Social Security in this recession/depression? The Center's answer is, of course "No".

Further, they point out that we are dealing with estimates. The Social Security people are assuming a 1.7% annual productivity growth; from 1995 - 2005 growth was 2.3%. We've been in a period where some have made more money than social security limits So that 83% fall under this limit as compared to 90% in 1983. If we move closer to the 1983 number, things will not be as bad predicted.

The questioning of these estimates does not make me sanguine that we'll not have a problem with Social Security at a not too distant point in the future. At a minimum, we should increase the base taxable salary .

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