It was only a few months ago that Netanyahu was telling the world that Iran would have the bomb in 2013. Now that he has been reelected, the date has slipped to 2015 or 2016. This shifting estimate is not new; in 1992, Peres announced that Iran was on pace to have the bomb by 1999.
Jacques Hymans attributes this frequent re-estimating to the failure of Israel (and the US) to consider that since the 1970s most countries seeking to join the nuclear club have not had an easy time. Libya gave up after thirty years; it took North Korea fifty years to detonate the bomb. Hymans believes the issue is poor management, not poor scientists. For example, Iran is a leading oil state yet imports 40% of its oil because its refineries are not up to the job. We need to better understand what's going on in Iran before we begin another unnecessary war.
No comments:
Post a Comment