One part of the holiday meal

Someone likes a popsicle

A Fun Way to End the Year

For fans of Intelligent Design

It's not as simple as either side wants it to be

Read this report from FactCheck.org.

Things are really getting better in Iraq

Like, for example, the price and availability of gasoline as reported in today's NY Times.

46 More

Forty-six more detainees joined the ranks of the hunger strikers at Guantanamo on Christmas Day. Now about 16% of the population are on the hunger strike.

Gee, Congress is actually trying to do something about a problem

The problem being the high cost of specialty drugs, some of which can cost $600,000 per year.

Senator Hatch, who, with Rep. Waxman, enacted the law to allow generic regular (i.e., chemical) drugs, is working on a similar bill for specialty drugs.

Senator Snowe has introduced a bill allowing the government to negotiate the price of drugs with the drug companies. They are not allowed to do so now. Can you imagine having that market power and not being able to use it? This is one of the reasons why the cost of the Medicare prescription program is astronomical (it's now at $720 billion over 10 years).

Another day, another medical story questioned

Today comes news of two British medical journals, BMJ and The Lancet, questioning articles by Dr. Ram B. Singh which they published years ago. Dr. Singh claimed that heart-attack victims who ate more fiber, fruits and vegetables for a year cut their risk of death during the year by about half. It turns out that Dr. Singh, who is based in Moradabad, India, may not have followed Western medical journal standards or may have taken advantage of Western medical journal standards. The journals feel taken advantage of. Dr. Singh feels maligned. Who knows who is right?

Not the best advertisement

Tuesday's Wall Street Journal was not one that Mario Gabelli, one of the lions of the money business, will be passing along to his friends unless he is seeking their advice as to whether he should initiate action against the paper. The article in question reports on a civil case brought against Gabelli and some of his business colleagues. The issue in the case is whether the defendants falsely claimed to be small businesses when bidding in the auction conducted by the FCC years ago for pieces of the radio spectrum for cellphone services.

Being recognized as a small business in the auction conveyed two considerable benefits to the winning bidders: a 25% discount from their bid price and a low-interest loan. The suit alleges that Gabelli or his affiliates really controlled these small bidders even though Gabelli owned 49.9% of the company. Considering that none of the majority owners had any experience in the cell phone business nor did they put up the majority of the money, one can assume that they were grateful to Mr. Gabelli for letting them in on a good investment.

How good an investment? One firm paid $12.9 million of its $17.2 million bid and sold its licenses a year later for $98 million; the problem for the majority owner here was that, through fees and its share of the company, Gabelli walked away with 75% of the deal. Another of the firms sold its licenses for $144 million for which they had paid $18.9 million. Not bad for people with diverse backgrounds - aerobics instructor, administrative assistant, property manager, basketball player, accountant - totally removed from the cell phone business.

The evidence that has been unsealed in this case, which was filed in 2001, includes internal notes and legal memos which on the surface certainly lead one to believe that not everything was on the up and up. Gabelli claims that the suit was filed purely as a way to extort money from him. He may be right, but sometimes one evil action leads to the uncovering of other evil actions.

We still have the safest airline system in the world

but the December 15 report of the Inspector General of the Department of Transportation does shake one up as it shows that more and more vital maintenance work is being done by organizations which are not certified by the FAA; the individual mechanics are certified, but there is not the level of oversight of the maintenance process itself and by the FAA that is mandated in organizations certified by the FAA.

Errors can happen anywhere, but the January 2003 crash of an Air Midwest plane in Charlotte was due to an incorrect adjustment of the flight-control system by a non-certified shop. I would think - and hope - that every plane flying commercial flights would have the same level of maintenance and that the FAA would do its darnedest to make sure that happens. So far, it hasn't.

A Gift

I was reading as I waited in the car for my wife to finish shopping when there was a knock on the window. Since my handicapped placard was not in quite the right place and not quite visible, I figured the elderly woman wanted to berate me for parking in a handicapped spot. Then, when she asked whether she could share something with me, visions of her version of how Jesus would save me sped through my mind. But, she wanted to share something real, something close to her and something that might be good for the world.

She had just picked up her mail and in it was a photograph of her second great-grandson which she wanted to share with whoever was around. I happened to be that lucky person to receive her gift. I hope that in 2006 I am lucky enough to again be in the right place at the right time when someone wants to share a similar gift.

The Lives They Led

I like reading the year-end edition of the NY Times Magazine. It's filled with obituaries of people who have died during the year. Many of the names I know, but there are always a number of people I'd never heard of who have led interesting lives.

Consider, for example, Miriam Rothschild. Sure, we've all heard of the Rothschilds and she was a member of the correct Rothschild family. But, the Times wrote about her not because of her fortune but because she liked fleas. She didn't like fleas in any weird sense, she was considered the world's expert on fleas. She produced a "Who's Who" of the flea world, replete with illustrations of various members of the flea family. She gained her knowledge of fleas without benefit of a formal education and she obtained specimens in conventional and unconventional ways, such as smuggling them out of Australia on flea-ridden mice. By her bedside she kept 60,000 microscope slides of fleas.

She inherited some of her eccentricity from her uncle, the second Lord Rothschild. He also collected animals, among them giant tortoises, which he rode, and zebras, which he used to pull his carriage to Piccadilly.

Another Economic Indicator

The National Assocation of Realtors' Affordability Index is not published by the government or a think tank. However, over the years the index has attracted some strong supporters and is highly thought of. Their latest reading is the lowest since 1991. In some areas, the index has dropped to mid-1980s levels.

Just how pervasive is the strong economy we hear so much of?

China and Endostatin

Endostatin is a cancer drug discovered in the '60s by Dr. Judah Folkman. He tried to commercialize it but the high costs of making it prevented his company, EntreMed, from making a success of it. Now, almost forty years later comes Dr. Luo Yongzhang, an American-educated researcher. He has apparently developed a version of endostatin that can be made at much less cost and is in talks with several US druge manufacturers to begin trials here.

I know that Dr. Hwang, the Korean stem cell researcher, has tarnished the reputation of Oriental researchers, but there is a strong possibility that Dr. Luo's work will be tested and pass the tests here.

The point of this post being that here is another example of the rise of China in the scientific world.

Death and taxes: The only certainties?

For some CEOs, death is now the only certainty as they have managed to convince their boards of directors that the CEO is so valuable that the stockholders should not only pay him exorbitant compensation but they should also pay the taxes on much of that compensation. This practice is known as the "gross up". And it is growing. In 2000 38% of the companies surveyed by the Wall Street Journal followed the practice. In 2004, 52% did.

Consider the deal the CEO of Home Depot has: the tax payments [paid by the shareholders] on his perks were $3.3 million; that topped his base salary of $2 million. Coke has paid its CEO $4 million since 2000, Regions Financial paid its CEO $27.3 million in gross-ups. The deal the executives of North Fork Bank have could yield them - and cost the shareholders - $125 million. BEA Systems paid $600,000 to cover the taxes on four years of chauffeur service for its CEO. Unisys even pays the taxes on its former CEO's pension.

CEO of a large US public company: it's still the greatest job in the world.

Beginning of a restoration of justice?

J. Michael Luttig is one of those conservative judges frequently mentioned as a candidate for the Supreme Court. Well, as happens more often than you think, this conservative judge has ruled against the Bush administration's attempt to move the Padilla case from the military to the civilian sphere. He sees it as an attempt to prevent Supreme Court review of the case. Luttig said that the government has left the impression that Padilla has been held for more than three years by mistake.

The charges against Padilla have gone from considering to explode a dirty bomb, to destroy a gas line to public buildings to, in the latest charge, fighting with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Witch hunt anyone?

Torture? We do not torture

For a very complete description of the administration's views on and acts of torture, read this from FactCheck.org.

Another toxic spill

A second city in China has cut off its water supply due to a chemical spill. This time cadmium was leaked from a state-owned smelter in the city of Shaoguan into the Bei River in Guangdong province. This time only 500,000 people were without water.

It won't be here forever

It's the first day of winter. The Fall was relatively mild, so, despite the sharp run-up in the price of oil, I haven't spent much on oil yet this heating season. In fact, I'm averaging less than $100 a month. I wonder how much longer heating oil, a finite resource, will be available to the average schmuck like me. Consider:

• Another superpower - China - that needs oil is emerging. 40% of the demand for oil over the past few years have been the result of China's growth.
  
• No one really knows how much oil is still in the ground and the oil people are not being very helpful in answering the question. Shell Oil lied about its reserves. Saudi Arabia, supposedly the largest source of oil, won't supply any verifiable information about its reserves. Much of the information we get about oil reserves comes from a guy working above a sub shop in a small town in Switzerland.
• Unlike previous years, there have been no reserves discovered to replaced the oil that has been pumped during the past couple of years.
  
• Who knows what Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Russia or Saudi Arabia will feel about us tomorrow? They may decide that we are persona non grata and either hold us up or shut us off, assuming that they can find another willing buyer.
• China is buying up oil sites all over the world. How willing would they be to sell it to us at a reasonable price if they decide to go back to their old ways?

We've got an upcoming catastrophe on our hands and we're doing damn little about it. Yes, we've muttered about hydrogen-powered cars and biodiesel fuel; we're even producing millions of gallons of ethanol a year. Some of our cars can run on a combination of ethanol and gas. There are some wind farms in the West. Some can afford solar panels.

Steps are being taken. But they're all very small steps given what will happen when the oil supply diminishes. We need another "Mission to the Moon". If the president of Brazil can vow that his country will become the world's leader in renewable energy and back it up with results, why can't we do something similar?

In only twenty-five years Brazil has moved from a dependence on foreign oil to just about energy independence. This has been due to their focus on ethanol-based fuels as well as - and probably more importantly - the availability of 'flex fuel' cars, i.e., cars that can run on either gas, ethanol or a combination thereof.

While the Sierra Club disputes the environmental benefits of ethanol, many scientists do not; they claim it is much less damaging to the environment.

At times, ethanol has been more expensive than oil, but, to me, it appears as though we won't see those days again. Even if moving to flex-fuel cars is more costly, how far ahead of the game will we be if we become truly energy independent?

An example of 21st century government

The latest 2008 Presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, is using a grant from the largess of the Bush administration to ensure that black and Hispanic 12 - 14 year-olds in Massachusetts learn about abstinence. I'm not against abstinence but this federal program is spending $50 million of our money and it is given to states only if their sex education program does not consider condoms or other methods of birth control.

The goal of preventing births to teenagers is laudable. But, why is there only one way of achieving the goal? This is another example of our money being spent on religious prejudice.

Democracy? Have we deserted it?

The current flap about spying brings to mind an old adage: Sometimes when we try to do good in the world, we forget about the people at home. Here we are trying to 'export' democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan while simultaneously violating our own constitution and our own citizens' right to privacy.

The whole idea of checks and balances - the cornerstone of our government - is being thrown out the window in the name of the war on terror. Of course, our insipid congressmen, who are now elected for life it seems, have done little to restore these checks and balances. I can't remember too many Congresses that have been as ineffectual and as concerned with trivia (vide, the baseball steroid issue and the flap over a nipple) as this one. Hell, we're moving very quickly to a world where we are not the sole superpower and this Congress is more concerned with next year's election than with offering alternatives to the imperialists who run the executive branch and - the way things are going - run the government totally on their own, given the likely supine Supreme Court that will soon be in power.

Sure, some Senators are screaming about "the violation of our citizens' rights". But did they not pass the Patriot Act virtually unanimously? Did they not give Bush carte blanche in the war on terror? What are they doing or even saying about our wonderful actions in Guantanamo? Have they not approved the nominations of incompetent people to run our government? Did they not pass the tax cuts that could have paid for the bulk of this war? Did they not interfere in the Schiavo case?

It hurts me to say this but I suspect that most of the really nasty people in this world, including brutal dictators, very likely feel that they are doing the right thing. They feel that their nation's existence is threatened and anything goes in trying to save the nation, even if in saving it you destroy it. We are approaching such a situation. These people - who have shown so little ability to run this country effectively in almost any area - now claim that they are the only ones who know what is right and good for us.

Fortunately, I am old and may escape the results that, as night follows day, will befall this country due to the ineptitude and arrogance of our leaders, Democratic and Republican. Unfortunately, my children and grandchildren will not. Until today, just about every generation in this country was convinced - and rightfully so - that their kids would have a better life. I don't think that belief is justified any longer. Unless we a see a drastic change in the people who run this country, there is only one way this country will go and that is down.

Loss #2

Last month the proponents of teaching 'intelligent design' in high school science classes lost at the ballot box as all but one member of the school committee that proposed the policy wasnot reelected. Today, they lost their case in court. The judge ruled the policy unconstitutional because intelligent design is clearly a religious idea that advances "a particular version of Christianity."

Let's hope he's right

Some excerpts from last night's speech by Bush:

"this vote..means that America has an ally of growing strength in the fight against terror." What does the vote mean for Iran?

"they object to our deepest values and our way of life." No mention of the 2+ year occupation as being a possible cause.

"Now, there are more than 125 Iraqi combat battalions fighting the enemy, more than 50 have taken the lead" That's quite a change from the one battalion mentioned by our military leaders in their Congressional testimony of September 30, two-and-a-half months ago.

I hope that Bush is correct in placing a lot of his capital of another election. The first one did not have a very good rate of return.

Is Harvard hoarding?

At $26 billion, Harvard's endowment is larger than the GDP of many countries. In 2004 Harvard raised $590 miilion in donations. Yet, it only spent 4.5% of its endowment in 2004. Yale, with an endowment of $12.7 billion and an average annual return of 17.4% on that endowment over the past ten years, spent the same 4.5%. Very few of the colleges with huge endowments spend as much as 6% of their endowments each year.

The feds require foundations to spend at least 5% of their capital each year as they don't want the foundations to hoard their cash. However, there is no similar regulation for colleges and universities; they can keep as much of their endowment as they wish.

I can't help thinking that Harvard and other financial behemoths of the educational world are more interested in buildings and hoarding than in education.

Is this an example of anti-terrorist activity?

This from today's New Bedford Standard Times:

A senior at UMass Dartmouth was visited by federal agents two months ago, after he requested a copy of Mao Tse-Tung's tome on Communism called "The Little Red Book."

Two history professors at UMass Dartmouth, Brian Glyn Williams and Robert Pontbriand, said the student told them he requested the book through the UMass Dartmouth library's interlibrary loan program.

The student, who was completing a research paper on Communism for Professor Pontbriand's class on fascism and totalitarianism, filled out a form for the request, leaving his name, address, phone number and Social Security number. He was later visited at his parents' home in New Bedford by two agents of the Department of Homeland Security, the professors said.

The professors said the student was told by the agents that the book is on a "watch list," and that his background, which included significant time abroad, triggered them to investigate the student further.

"I tell my students to go to the direct source, and so he asked for the official Peking version of the book," Professor Pontbriand said. "Apparently, the Department of Homeland Security is monitoring inter-library loans, because that's what triggered the visit, as I understand it."

Although The Standard-Times knows the name of the student, he is not coming forward because he fears repercussions should his name become public. He has not spoken to The Standard-Times.

The professors had been asked to comment on a report that President Bush had authorized the National Security Agency to spy on as many as 500 people at any given time since 2002 in this country.

The eavesdropping was apparently done without warrants.

The Little Red Book, is a collection of quotations and speech excerpts from Chinese leader Mao Tse-Tung. In the 1950s and '60s, during the Cultural Revolution in China, it was required reading. Although there are abridged versions available, the student asked for a version translated directly from the original book.

The student told Professor Pontbriand and Dr. Williams that the Homeland Security agents told him the book was on a "watch list." They brought the book with them, but did not leave it with the student, the professors said.

Dr. Williams said in his research, he regularly contacts people in Afghanistan, Chechnya and other Muslim hot spots, and suspects that some of his calls are monitored. "My instinct is that there is a lot more monitoring than we think," he said.

Dr. Williams said he had been planning to offer a course on terrorism next semester, but is reconsidering, because it might put his students at risk. "I shudder to think of all the students I've had monitoring al-Qaeda Web sites, what the government must think of that," he said. "Mao Tse-Tung is completely harmless."

It's good to know our government is on the ball and rooting out terrorists.

Update, December 21:
Questions have arisen as to whether the student was attempting to perpetrate a hoax.

Whatever happened to the rule of law?

Today the President acknowledged that he has authorized wiretaps of "people with known links to Al Qaeda and related terrorist organizations". How real these 'known links" are is really unknown as there has been no vetting of the names by the courts or any organization independent of the White House. Whether the "activities conducted under this authorization have helped detect and prevent possible terrorist attacks" is equally unverifiable.

Bush is asking for our trust. But, at a minimum, he has been mistaken before in matters of vital national interest, such as the raison d'etre of the Iraq War, and, when it came time to translate words into actions, such as with Katrina or post-war Iraq, the incompetence of the actors has been staggering.

Shades of the Pentagon Papers

Hidden in the bowels of today's article re the White House snooping on Americans is this (courtesy of Intel Dump):

• The White House asked The New York Times not to publish this article, arguing that it could jeopardize continuing investigations and alert would-be terrorists that they might be under scrutiny. After meeting with senior administration officials to hear their concerns, the newspaper delayed publication for a year to conduct additional reporting. Some information that administration officials argued could be useful to terrorists has been omitted.

Does this increase the likelihood that this article, in fact, is stating reality? I guess we should be thankful that legal action was not threatened.

Say it ain't so, Joe

It looks like another scientific hoax and medical journal scandal has surfaced with the claim by Roh Sung Il, a co-author of the acclaimed paper on the cloning of human embryos to make stem cells that appeared in Science last year, that the results were faked by the lead scientist, Hwang Woo Suk. This comes on the heels of the report last week of scientists' dropping test results from a study of Vioxx.

What is bizarre about this latest scandal is that Mr. Roh is the second co-author of the Science paper to say the reported results are questionable. Dr. Gerald Schatten of the University of Pittsburgh wants his name removed from the article. Why didn't these co-authors question the results before the paper was published? Why did they allow their names to be used if they hadn't checked the results?

Perhaps Hwang is a charlatan. But what would you call Roh and Schatten?

One more body part subject to the plastic surgeon

Did you guess what body part? Perhaps, the headline in today's Wall Street Journal might give you a clue - Virgin Territory: US Women Seek A Second First time. That's right, the hymen. Hymenoplasty, the reattachment of the hymen, is one of the fastest-growing procedures of the plastic surgeon. It's advertised in magazines, newspapers, radio and on-line. Where one surgeon performed two procedures a year ten years ago, now he does ten a month.

Why people choose to undergo unnecessary surgery befuddles me. To recover from this procedure takes six weeks; there is the ever-present risk of any operation; it's expensive, with $5000 being a typical charge. And, it's only good for one time. People who have this procedure done in hopes of improving their sex life for one night have far deeper problems that cannot be cured by any form of surgery.

Will this lead to any changes?

The situation at Hollinger Corp. is becoming more unusual. The SEC has issued notices to the former members of the audit committee that threaten them with legal action for failing to spot the fraudulent actions of Lord Black and his cohort. Like most boards of directors of public companies, those comprising the audit committee of Hollinger are not unknown: former governor of Illinois, wife of very prominent financier, former ambassador to Germany. Perhaps, this action will put a little of the fear of God in some corporate directors and make them stop being toadies to management.

And the record-breaking pace continues

The October trade deficit set another record. The $68.9 billion gap between imports and exports does not bode well for our economy. What do our leaders think of this?

Do As I Say, Not As I Do

It looks as though some in our government want to ensure that nuclear weapons live on and adapt to the 21st century world. The Bush administration is worried that our nuclear arsenal is out of date and becoming too difficult and costly to maintain. After all, we have not built a new warhead in close to twenty years and we haven't tested one since 1992. So, it has been talking with Congress about spending our dollars to start researching a new generation of nuclear weapons. Thus far, Congress has approved $25 million for this research.

Why should Iran and North Korea stop their nuclear weapons programs if we are modernizing ours?

Reason has fled the scene

Some interesting examples of the high quality reasoning and sterling integrity of the boards of large corporations:

• Nortel, which has been on the ropes since before the 21st century began, paid its outgoing CEO who failed to turn the company around $5 million in severance. Then, they turned around and paid the next savior not only $20.5 million in compensation but another $11.5 to Motorola to free the savior from a non-compete agreement.
• Total compensation for CEOs at the largest companies was up 30% on average last year. How much was your raise? Since 1999, the median compensation of these guys has gone from $1 million to just under $2.5 million. I wonder whether profits had the same exponential growth.
• Belden guaranteed their new CEO stock options worth at least $2.5 million per year for the first three years of his employment.
• Whitehall Jewelers paid $980,000 to their new CEO while she was still working at Penney's.
• The guy who took Newell Rubbermaid down the toilet was paid $4.6 million in severance although he had no employment contract.
• Paxson Communications gave its incumbent president a $1.5 million signing bonus.

On the other hand there are a few sensible, generous CEOs:

• The ex-CEO of Pepsi took a salary of $1 per year from 1998 - 2001 and established a scholarship fund for the children of Pepsi workers with the rest of the pay to which he was entitled.
• The head of Best Buy distributes his options to the people on the store floor.

Methinks he protests too much

I don't know about you, but I'm getting tired of Bush's weekly sermons about how wonderful things are in Iraq. Maybe if he stayed home and didn't spend as much time talking about victory, he might figure out how to get out of the morass he has put us in.

A Great American

We lost a great American when Gene McCarthy died today. His career was another example of how people can surprise you. He was just another Senator until he took up the gauntlet and tried to change America. He spoke with clarity and honesty the things that needed saying in that difficult time of the late '60s.

He was able to galvanize the youth of this country so that they had a real voice in running the country. His campaign was one of the reasons why Johnson did not run in 1968. It also led to our disengagement from another shameful war.

His was not a typical programmed campaign. He was spontaneous and had interesting ideas. He was the first candidate that I can recall who actually told us during the campaign who he would like to have in his cabinet.

If Bobby Kennedy had not been in the campaign, I wonder whether McCarthy might have been able to wrest the nomination from Humphrey.

They are only words

Courtesy of Economist's view here is another example of words not followed by any action. This appears to be the strategy of the Bush administration when it comes to fixing problems - make a speech extolling what you will do and then do zilch.

What kind of a country have we become?

If we are treating all of the people we have 'detained' - no matter where they are housed - according to humane conventions, why have we not let the Red Cross meet with all of the detainees? The State Department's legal adviser acknowledged that the Red Cross has not had access to those people held in the so-called secret prisons.

The Beginning of the End for Merck?

"Taken together, these inaccuracies and deletions call into question the integrity of the data on adverse cardiovascular events in this article." from an editorial in today's New England Journal of Medicine commenting on a major Vioxx study reported in a previous issue of the Journal. The report apparently omitted the fact that three of the subjects died of heart attacks, which, in the Journal's view "made certain calculations and conclusions in the article incorrect".

Sleight of hand

Last month the House cut the budget as a way of paying for Katrina. Yesterday they voted three times to cut taxes. The cuts will amount to $94.5 billion over five years. Now, how much was that budget cut last month?

The House should learn that a budget is a function of both income and expense.

The Cyclotron Next Door

Johns Hopkins is getting rid of a cyclotron and a civil engineer from Alaska will be bringing it home via truck and barge. Home is a residential area near downtown Anchorage, Alaska. The engineer will put it in his garage. Strangely, many of his neighbors oppose the move.

How far I've strayed.. or come?

Today is, in the eyes of the Roman Catholic Church, the feast of the Immaculate Conception, a holy day of obligation on which one must attend Mass or - at least in the days I was growing up - one would commit a mortal sin. Well, I'm not going to Mass today. For the past forty years, my only attendance at Mass has been for weddings and funerals. (Notice how I automatically capitalized mass. The nuns and priests did a good job of indoctrination, particularly with the Catholic sense of guilt.)

Today has been a holy day of obligation for only 200 years. It was on December 8, 1854, that Pius IX pronounced and defined that the Blessed Virgin Mary "in the first instance of her conception, by a singular privilege and grace granted by God, in view of the merits of Jesus Christ, the Saviour of the human race, was preserved exempt from all stain of original sin."

The world does evolve. But, I wonder why it took almost 1900 years to decide that Mary was born without sin, since the church had devoted so much to the 'honor and glory of the Blessed Virgin' - churches, painting, sculptures, names of saints, etc. - for hundreds of years before then.

Don't get sick in China

Yesterday's Wall Street Journal brought up another major problem for China: its health care system. As China started to adopt a more capitalist approach, it ordered hospitals to become profit-making entities. As a result, hospitals try to maximize their revenue from each patient. Studies by the World Bank as well as Chinese organizations have concluded that hospital doctors typically overprescribe drugs and diagnostic procedures. In the US about 15% of our total health care spending goes to drugs; in China the percent is 50. The World Bank estimates that as much as 37% of China's health dollars are wasted on unnecessary drug prescriptions.

But worse than the revenue-maximization policy is the Chinese payment policy: before you are treated, you must pay the bill even in cases of emergency. The article illustrates the situation by describing the efforts of a family to save the life of their seven-year-old son who has leukemia. The family earns $350 annually, the estimated cost of a six-month treatment is $18,500. And, the fees for each part of the treatment must be paid in advance. Thus far, the family is $4,000 in debt, much of it borrowed from their fellow villagers, who really can't afford it. So, an entire village is at risk of economic failure because of the illness of one small child. And, because of the policy the family takes the boy out of the isolation ward and the hospital after each treatment, thus increasing the risk of infection.

Fortunately, some in the Chinese media have started reporting on this problem. The government has begun to address the problem but estimates are that it will take 20 years.

It's clear that if China intends to be a major power with some sort of humane treatment of its citizens, it must address its health care and pollution problems now.

Another Report From the 9/11 Discourse Project

Okay, so it's no longer a public commission. It is a pressure group. But a pressure group that we need. I'm talking about the 9/11 Public Discourse Project, led by the former members of the 9/11 Commission. They've just issued another report on how well we are prepared to face another terrorist attack. Their conclusion: not very well. Of the 41 issues they rate on a scale of A to F, one issue receives an A-, four receive F. Let's look at some of these issues.

I know things move slowly in the government. But, does it take eight years to ensure that first responders will be able to talk with each other? Why is it taking so long to establish a consoldiated terrorist watch list within our government? How much have we talked with our allies about an international consolidated list?

I know that pork is also rampant in government. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) seems to spend more money on pork than protection. Not all states, cities and towns in the US bear the same risk of terrorist attack. Yet, that's how we are spending our money four years after 9/11. Talk about stupidity and cupidity.

The government likes to make grandiose statements that are seldom followed up with real action. For instance, why hasn't the National Counterterrorism Center been adequately staffed? When will the FBI get its act together?

There is a risk of trampling on people's civil liberties while combating terrorism. Why hasn't the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board been established?

There is a lot of talk about terrorists getting their hands on WMD. What are we doing about preventing this from happening?

How the other half lives

I know that I've led a sheltered life. But a feature article in the travel section of today's NY Times showed me just how sheltered I've been. I've never had a chocolate bath, been rubbed with Greek sea salt, wrapped in cactus, scrubbed with papaya, massaged with lava rock, had a cranberry enzyme bath, treated with Canadian maple sugar or bathed in wine (the subject of the article). However, those in the know and with the money try these activities in a bid to keep looking young.

I prefer the methods of maintaining one's youth described by Bram Stoker and Goethe. They, at least, are recognized as being fictional.

Competence, thy name is not the typical Bush appointee

I've written before on the seeming incompetence of Allan Hubbard, Bush's economic adviser. Now Economist's View (aka Mark Thoma) has another example.

Looking behind the numbers

Vox Baby has an interesting analysis of the November jobs report. The figures showed a gain of 215,000 jobs, but Samwick, the brains behind Vox Baby, dug deeper to show that, since the average work week declined by .1 hour, this 'gain' is misleading as the total hours worked declined, which, in turn, resulted in a decline in average weekly earnings.

The week the drinking water stopped

It appears as though China's pollution problem is escalating. In late November they had to shut off the water in Harbin, home of several million people, for a week due to an explosion at a chemical plant that released benzene and other toxic chemicals into a river. The chemicals are expected to reach Russia this week.

More countries - South Korea, Japan, Russia - are naming China as a major source of their pollution. Traces of mercury from China have been reported in New England.

Part of China's problem is the limited staffing of their 'EPA'; they employ 200 professionals, our EPA has 10,000.

It's a little more than standing up and standing down

I didn't hear Bush's speech on our current Iraq strategy this week nor did I read anything about it on our vacation, but reading the speech on the White House web site led me to the title of this posting. I'd like to comment on some of the "bullet points" in the executive summary.

Victory in Iraq is a vital U.S. interest.
It sure is a vital interest now that we have invaded it and made it the best recruiting vehicle the terrorists have. Could the bombers of London, Madrid and Bali be more emboldened by our leaving Iraq? I doubt it.

Failure is not an option.
It's a nice saying, but may be more wishful thinking than a statement of fact. Bush's words about Middle East reformers never again trusting us assumes that they trust us now, given our unalloyed support of Israel and Arab autocracies.

The Enemy is diffuse and sophisticated.
Bush fails to see that our occupation itself is now a reason for people joining and supporting the insurgency.

In discussing the 'security track' Bush does not mention the 'oil spot' theory of Andrew Kripenevich that has attracted the support of many including McCain.

The speech is short of many details and is riddled with inaccuracies but it is a start.

The Captain, The Chaplain, The Muslim

The name James Yee probably has vanished from your memory, but the 2003 accusation that a Muslim chaplain in the US Army was a traitor may not have so vanished. James Yee, third generation Chinese-American, West Point graduate, Army chaplain and converted Muslim, was the accused. He has written a book, "For God and Country: Faith and Patriotism Under Fire", about his experience as an American accused of being an Al Qaeda operative.

Yee's life as a Muslim chaplain in the US Army started out on a very high note; he was held in such regard by his superiors that he was trotted out to give interviews to NPR, MSNBC and other media outlets. Yet, after being arrested he was held in solitary confinement for 76 days and, until the day of his discharge, was prevented from speaking publicly by a gag order. While in custody, he was strip-searched. Further, his married life was destroyed by the Army's claims - very likely made of whole cloth - that he was an adulterer and pornographer.

He writes of "forced cell extraction" of the Guantanamo detainees. In these exercises six to eight MPs in riot gear were used to immobilize a detainee in his cell and move him to a maximum security unit. According to Yee and many others Guantanamo is on a war footing in line with the apparent military belief that the camp might be infiltrated by Al Qaeda by land, sea or air. I guess infiltration from within was added when they arrested Yee.

The serious charges (including espionage) were dropped within a month after Yee's arrest, but he remained in solitary. The charge of mishandling classified documents was dropped when the prosecution could not prove he ever possessed classified documents.

This seems to be another blot on the American way of war.

The Rhine - Late Autumn 2005

Before sailing from Amsterdam to Basel over the past two weeks, I thought that the Rhine would be either castles or industry. I was wrong as the following photos show. However, I was struck at the narrowness of the river. It did not seem much wider than the Charles in Boston. Someone with a strong arm could probably throw a coin across.

See you in two weeks

I'm taking some time off and will resume posting in early December.

Are we being served?

I've said several times that it's not just the executive branch of our government that is falling down on the job, the legislative branch is also earning an F grade. Today's Boston Globe reports on the considerable decline in the number of Congressional hearings. Not only are there fewer hearings, but those that are held are on such trivial issues as steroids in baseball rather than something more substantive such as, for example, the situation at Guantanamo.

This is just another sign of the crappy times in which we live.

Another Gross-up Example

Another American icon, Georgia Pacific, will likely be sold to Koch Industries. The CEO of Georgia-Pacific will receive 1% of the acquisition price. You may think that 1% is not much, but we're talking a $13.2 billion acquisition here. So, the CEO gets $130 million in addition to his 'regular' retirement pension of $1.4 million annually.

Fair to the shareholders? Will the company also 'gross up' the 1%?

A small step toward sanity?

The Senate is proposing that executives pay a reasonable rate for their private use of corporate jets. (See this for a few egregious uses of the company plane.) Under this proposal, executives would pay significantly more in taxes for their personal use of a corporate asset. For example, under present rules an executive who travels 2,000 miles on the corporate jet to golf would have about $1500 added to his taxable income. If the proposed revision becomes law, that number would go to $30,000.

Let's see more of these kinds of laws that bring some common sense to the executive pay arena.

Where did all the dung go?

Thirty years ago the tilapia in Lake Edward in Congo were happy. And those who fished for them were also happy as they'd bring in about 500 fish a night. Hippos were the prime source of this happiness; each day they would dump more than 575,000 pounds of natural fertilizer in the lake. This fed phytoplankton which were eaten by worms and larvae, which, in turn, were eaten by the fish. The chain was completed when the fish became part of man's food supply.

Thirty years ago there were more than 9000 hippos who basked in Lake Edward every day. In 1986 civil war came to the Congo. Today there are less than 700 hippos left from the herd that fertilized the lake. Most of them have been killed by soldiers - rebel and government. Fertilizer production has decreased by more than 90%. The typical fish catch has decreased from 500 to 30 and the tilapia are smaller. The likelihood of famine increases with each hippo killed.

A different war

While in his latest Atlantic Monthly article about Iraq, “Why Iraq Has No Army”, James Fallows does not expend many words comparing our Iraq experience with a few of our previous military adventures, his comments about these previous experiences caught my eye.

For example, with Vietnam we actually trained some of our people in the Vietnamese language for four to six months. In the house-to-house conflicts of Iraq very, very few of our troops speak the language or have interpreters directly available to them.In World War II our military had Japanese language schools all over the country.

After two-plus years in Iraq we still are having problems supplying our troops with all the equipment they need. One of the major reasons we won WWII was because of our ability to quickly and efficiently supply almost all of the Allied troops.

I know it’s the 21^st century and the age of a volunteer army. But, when my brothers were drafted in WWII, they were gone until the Summer of 1945. Now, we transfer soldiers out after a year or less, no matter what our needs are. (See this post.) This idea of a limited stay violates all the advice of experts in counterterrorism: that the establishment of long term personal relationships is absolutely required to defeat insurgents.

As a child, I was quite aware that this country was at war as were all of my friends, not only because of the news but also because, in our own way, we all sacrificed. I can still recall Bush’s strategy as to what we could do to fight today's war on terrorism: shop.

Somewhat of a surprise

The Chief Astronomer of the Vatican says that intelligent design is not science and should not be taught in science classes.

Recruiting the Volunteer Army

Overall, the military has been having a hard time meeting their recruiting goals. However, the problem may be worse than portrayed, as a recent GAO study shows that in some areas recruitment is better than expected, while in the more vital areas such as Special Forces, intelligence specialists and, most importantly, translators recruiting results are worse than expected. In fact, about 40% of the ‘specialties' openings were not filled. Yet, by focusing on overall results, the question arises as to whether the Pentagon has given Congress a complete picture of its capabilities in the current wars.

Also, the pressures on the recruiters have led to enlistment bonuses being offered to those who signed up for jobs which were already fully manned and even over-staffed.

The Gross-Up

Twenty years ago Congress tried to exert some control over the amount of money that an executive could take from a company in which there has been a "change in control", i.e., they tried to limit the size of "golden parachutes". They established a 20% excise tax on the parachute if it exceeded the executive's average annual pay over the most recent five years.

Executive talent being in such short supply (yeah, right), some companies wanted to assure that their executives were 'fairly' ( the executives define fair) compensated if the company was sold. So, they generously offered to pay the tax for these departing executives, i.e., they increase or "gross-up" the amount of money paid so that the tax due is included.

Who really winds up paying the executive's taxes? The shareholders, as usual.

Really eliminating a boondoggle?

So our legislators have told Alaska that they cannot build the two 'bridges to nowhere' with the $442 million of our money embedded in the transportation bill. They can just use it in any other way they see fit. This still does not change the fact that Alaska is getting more transportation money per capita than just about any other state. All that our legislators have done is made it seem as less of a waste of our money.

What the f@#$ is going on?

It's really too bad that the on-line Wall Street Journal requires you to join (unless of course you take advantage of their introductory offer) as Tuesday's Journal had a fascinating article about David, an Army foreign-area officer.

David is a West Point graduate who has become an expert in the ways, customs and, most important, the language of Arabs. He spent two years in Yemen, where he was able to meet people who wouldn't step foot into the US Embassy and establish close relationships with these people.

In May 2004 he was transferred to Mosul to help build relationships with Iraqis who could be considered trustworthy. By all accounts he has performed superbly in a variety of tasks from reconaissance to nation-building. The chief of staff for the general in charge of the northern third of Iraq says of David and other foreign-area officers, "We ought to have one of these guys assigned to every commander in Iraq." Yet, David and his colleagues are being transferred out of Iraq. When David leaves Mosul, the Embassy there will have exactly zero people who speak Arabic or who can be considered a Middle East expert. Does that make any sense? Particularly when we have made so many mistakes in Iraq because we don't understand the culture or speak the language.

Is it only me?

The media have been trumpeting the fact that the Senate has passed a bill requiring a quarterly report from the administration on the status of things in Iraq. Yet, I've seen nothing on what this report should cover. I find that strange. My experience says that this report will cover whatever the administration wants it to cover. As to whether it will, in Drucker's words, have "specific, measurable goals" is another matter.

And, of course, the House still has to pass this. What are the odds of that happening?

You have to wonder whether this is all posturing for 2006.

A few of Peter Drucker's best ideas

Successful enterprises create the conditions to allow employees to do their best work.

Organizations should articulate a clear purpose, with specific, measurable goals.

Managers must ask the unanswered questions and consider ignored issues.

Updates to previous posts

Saddam and his co-defendants had 1500 lawyers, 1100 of which have opted out of the case.

The Pentagon has admitted using white phosphorus to more than light the battlefield in Fallujah; it was used as a weapon.

Blue-Gene/L, IBM's and the world's fastest computer, is not only more than twice as fast as its predecessor but uses only about one-fifth the power as well.

A Disengagement Strategy?

from the Army War College, no less. The Strategic Studies Institute, housed at the War College, has an interesting article about a disengagement strategy re Iraq in this month's newsletter. The article concludes with a series of recommendations, a couple of the more interesting ones are:

• "The military and intelligence leaders must be painfully honest in addressing the question of when Iraqi security forces will be able to function without a coalition troop presence to prop them up.
• The viability of Iraqi units must be measured by a series of tough indicators, including real efforts to measure intangibles like morale and unit cohesion, as well as quantifying training and the distribution of weapons and equipment.
• As a last resort for preventing near-term civil war, the United States may have to swallow the bitter pill of allowing local militias to retain a significant and ongoing role in Iraqi politics....
• The United States needs to deemphasize thetoric that may cause Iraqi citizens to believe their government has been put in place to wage war on US enemies in the Muslim world... If Iraq is the 'central front' in the war on terrorism, then it is part of a campaign that mainstream Muslims view as including Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's actions against the Palestinians and Russian Presdent Vladimir Putin's campaign against Chechnya.
• All future wars should have carefully planned exit strategies based on something other than best case planning...."

History redux?

Are the interrogation methods being used at Guantanamo the same as those used by the Communists? That's what an op-ed in today's NY Times claims. If so, maybe we should think about the goal of a Communist interrogation: breaking one's soul. I would hope that we don't have the same goal.

Wow!

In June IBM announced that Blue Gene/L, its computer that Lawrence Livermore Labs uses to study all sorts of arcane things, could now operate at 136.8 trillion calculations a second. Less than six months later, it's turbocharged the computer so that it now operates at 280.6 trillion calculation per second, or more than double its previous record speed.

Talk about a legal team

Did you know that Saddam's legal team consists of 1100 lawyers? That's one thousand one hundred people defending eight people. I wonder how they can get anything done. Maybe that's why they're pulling out of the trial. Of course, having two of your number killed may have some influence on that decision as well.

The Wonderful World of the Large Public Corporation

I've written a fair bit about the compensation of those who run America's large companies. These 'leaders' of the corporate world make more than a decent buck in cash, stock, and perquisites no matter how their companies fare. Gretchen Morgenson in today's NY Times points out that these benefits can also be made even when a company is in bankruptcy.

Her example is Delphi Corporation, the parts business spinoff by GM. Here's a company that has lost more than $6 billion dollars in the past two years, even though it has under-funded its pension plan by $11 billion (that you and I will pick up as taxpayers since the plan will go to the PBGC). Yet, it intends to compensate most of those who have managed the company so poorly with hundreds of millions of dollars should the company make it out of bankruptcy or manage to sell its assets, while at the same time it proposes to cut its employees' pay by two-thirds and screw its retireees.

One particular aspect of the compensation plan filed with the bankruptcy court caught my attention - incentive bonuses. These are calculated not on net earnings, but on earnings less interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and restructuring costs. I've always had a problem with definitions of earnings that don't include all of a company's costs, including interest, taxes and depreciation, but the exclusion of restructuring costs in a situation crying for restructuring boggles the mind. They can spend whatever they want to restructure and pay no penalty for doing so. If the incentive bonuses are earned, they will amount to $21.5 million in the first six months. Toyota, not exactly a loser in the auto world, pays its top thirty-three executives the same amount for a full year.

There's a lot more of this robbery going on but I'm too p.oed. to go on. Where have notions of morality, decency, fairness gone?

The last AT&T president

I'm sure David Dorman is a smart guy. He finished Georgia Tech in three years, was the youngest president of a Bell operating company, was CEO of AT&T before he turned 50. But he had five years to resucitate AT&T and was unable to do so. Yet, when SBC finalizes its purchase of AT&T, Dorman will leave and take with him a severance package estimated at over $30 million.

What did the stockholders get from Dorman's five year reign at AT&T?

Some things take longer than others

The investigation into the CIA leak took 22 months and cost $724,041. Starr's investigation into the Clintons took 49 months and cost $73.5 million. The investigation into Henry Cisneros, former HUD Secretary, has cost less than the Starr investigation, $23.6 vs $73.5 million, but it has taken over 10 years and is not yet finished. In the six months ending in March the people running the Cisneros investigation spent almost a million dollars, Fitzgerald's CIA investigation spent about a tenth of that.

Talk about milking a dead horse! But, hey, it's only taxpayer's money.

Another Good Deal

Now comes the tale of companies backdating stock options. That is, they grant executives an option today but at yesterday's lower price. Not a bad deal for the executives as they are guaranteed to make money. But a bad deal for the stockholders.

Options are supposed to be designed as an incentive. You help the company do well, so the stock goes up and your options are worth more. You help the company do poorly, the stock goes down and your options are worth less. A reasonable deal.

But it's not the way the world works at some companies, Mercury Interactive being one such company. Their CEO and CFO have both left and the company is restating its financial results going back to 2002, all the result of their use of the backdating of options. Other companies are being investigated by the SEC.

The Abstinence-Only Nuts Are At It Again

and I emphasize the word 'only'. It seems that many in the abstinence-only cause (on which we taxpayers spend hundreds of millions annually) would prefer that cervical cancer not be cured via a newly discovered vaccine. Why are so many in this country and in the Muslim world so fearful of sex?

Pinewood Derby 21st Century Style

When my oldest son was a Cub Scout, he participated in the Pinewood Derby, a race in which kids entered cars carved from pine. It may have cost a couple of dollars for the wood, wheels, screws, etc. I think Cub Scout dens today still run these derbies. They are a way of father-son bonding and were fun for both parties.

Now, however, kids - at least 135,000 of them in the US - race in go-karts. No big deal, you say. Before reading today's Journal, I would have agreed with you; in fact, my younger kids drove these karts at amusement parks. However, in 2005 we're talking about a different kind of go-kart. Ones that can get up to 70 mph. Ones where the drivers (as young as 5) wear fireproof suits, helmets and chest protectors, but not seat belts. Most races have an ambulance in attendance to rush the injured kids - oops, I mean drivers - to the hospital when they are injured.

In September I wrote about parents who give their kids Spark, a caffeine drink, to bolster their athletic prowess, they hope. I found it hard to believe that parents could take such risks with their kid's health. But that risk pales in comparison to the risks in go-kart racing. Before these kids race, the parents sign a waiver that they "fully understand" that the dangers involve "serious bodily injury, including permanent disability, paralysis and death". In 2000 one kid was killed. What rational parent even in the 21st century can allow his child to run these risks?

Not only are the risks substantial, the costs are not for the average worker. Annual costs of $10,000 are not uncommon. One guy bought his 11-year-old son three carts, twenty sets of tires and a 26-foot trailer to haul everything in and he is thinking of buying a tractor-trailer with living space and mechanic's area which can set him back $200,000.

It's a great country, isn't it? You're free to be as stupid and wasteful as you want to be.

Another record

September's trade deficit of $66.1 billion topped the previous record of $60.4 billion set in February. Will we hit $70 billion in this last quarter?

Small Potatoes

Another hedge fund, Groundswell Partners, has gone belly up because of fraud. It's only $43 million that was robbed. In this case, the founder, Mark Conway, said that he created "fictitious brokerage statements, fictitious accounting reports, fictitious audit reports, a fictitious auditor, and fund performance information". Conway has written a number of publications about investing. Perhaps, he'll become a novelist now.

Can a piece of paper change your life?

For years Hernando de Soto, a Peruvian economist, has been arguing that urban poverty can be alleviated by giving the poor property rights. A recent edition of The Wall Street Journal featured an article describing the different outcomes of Argentinian families that occupied what they thought to be public land twenty-five years ago.

It so happened that the land was not public, but was owned by thirteen separate people. The government was able to buy the land from eight of the owners and pass title to that land to those living there. It is still negotiating with the other five.

So, you had a situation where in the beginning everybody was more or less equal - the same background, education, size of lot, type of job, etc. But once some people owned their land, things changed. Those who owned land are now many years later much better off than those who have not yet been able to get title. Not only do they have better houses. They have fewer children and they are better educated. There are fewer teenage pregnancies. They are more optimistic about the future.

The title to their land - a piece of paper - has certainly made a difference in San Francisco Solano.

It's not Night of the Living Dead

but, Lord, this documentary from the Italian network RAI has photographs - of men, women and children with face skin burned off and teeth prominent - that remind me of the ghouls one sees in horror movies. What is truly horrible about this documentary (if it is corect) is that we, the US of A, and are using what in effect are chemical weapons on civilians as well as enemy forces.

This interview with a Pentagon spokesman, the director of the documentary and a soldier who appeared in the documentary is a classic in how to conduct an interview when you don't have a leg to stand on. All would-be flacks should study it.

Is Accounting 101 no longer taught?

You have to wonder about the state of accounting education in this country. Many private sector companies can't seem to close their books or analyze their cash needs or hire competent accountants or perform basic stuff any accountant worth his salt learned in the first year of Accounting. You can argue that these companies are not spending your money. But, these problems have spread to the federal government, which is spending your money. Here's what the GAO has to say about NASA:

• It's been on the GAO high-risk list since 1990.
• It can't properly identify adjustments or correcting entries
• It can't consistently post transactions to the right accounts
• Its financial statements cannot be audited.

And NASA is not alone. These problems "are not uncommon among federal agencies".

What in the Lord's name is going on? How can these agencies waste our money like this?

Day of reckoning closer?

The International Energy Agency (IEA), an energy adviser to 26 wealthy countries, is worried. Will there be enough oil? Can we maintain a reasonably good economy over the long haul? What are we doing to the environment?

In its annual report, the agency feels that we are overly dependent on the Middle East. "95% of the world relies for its economic well-being on five or six countries in the Middle East." They're concerned that the governments there may restrain production in an attempt for even higher prices. 17 of the 20 cutoffs of the oil supply over the past thirty years have been in the Middle East.

Supply is not their only concern. Concern for the environment from carbon emissions has caused the agency to call for greater use of renewable resources and nuclear power.

Not a pleasant prospect.

Some leaks are more important than others

Patrick Fitzgerald investigated the circumstances surrounding the outing of one CIA agent. There is supposedly another investigation into the leaking of secret intelligence - that we had broken a crucial Iranian code - to a foreign power, Iran.

The Fitzgerald investigation is over. The other investigation has supposedly been ongoing for seventeen months. No grand jury has been convened in the matter. Federal prosecutors and the Justice Department have evinced little interest. It remains in the hands of the FBI. Yet, the effects of this second leak dwarf the outing of Valerie Plame. Is the lack of progress and interest due to the fact that Ahmad Chalabi is involved? He is accused of obtaining the leaked information and passing it to Iran, who were his allies in opposing Saddam.

He was the guy who told us of the existence of WMD and that we would be treated as liberators. He's also been convicted of embezzling $288 million from a bank he ran in Jordan.

He'll be meeting with Rice and Snow this week because he has somehow wormed his way back into power in Iraq.

Games Nobel Prize Winners Play

In an interview in The Wall Street Journal, Thomas Schelling, game theorist and co-winner of this year's Nobel Prize in Economics, asserts that "terrorism is an almost miniscule problem." He points out that more people die from car accidents in three-and-a-half weeks in this country than died in the World Trade Center disaster. Also, when terrorism is compared with the common ways of dying (accidents, drowning, heart attacks, etc.), it is down near the bottom.

Clearly, he has a point. But the physical deaths caused by terrorists are only one element of the costs. Injuries add to the physical costs as does the destruction of buildings and other propety. Then, there is the psychological cost; people all over the globe are terrified about terrorism and their fear is not without costs. Most people believe that accidents or failing health happens to other people (until it happens to you) and act that way. Unfortunately, if you're living in Baghdad or Tel Aviv or Gaza, you find it hard to believe that bad things always happen to the other guy. You know that today there is a good chance that it may happen to you.

Did you get your letter yet?

Your National Security Letter, that is. Oops, I forgot that if you did get such a letter, you could not tell me, not today, not ever. In fact, you may not even know that you are the subject of such a letter.

What is a National Security Letter you ask? It's a letter that, under the activities approved by the Patriot Act, the FBI issues to collect private details about anybody, even if that person is not suspected of anything. It does not allow the Feds to eavesdrop or read your e-mail. But it does allow them to trace your activities so that they could learn where you work, how you spend your money, where and with whom you live now and in the past, what you buy on-line, how much you gamble, whether you use a pawn shop, what you invest in, what you search for and read on the web, who calls or e-mails you whether at home or work.

It's not a big deal for the FBI to 'authorize' the issuance of such a letter; they're doing it at the rate of 30,000+ a year now; pre 9/11 they may have issued 300 a year. They don't need a judge or grand jury to isue the letter; they simply ask their boss. And, once the information is obtained it need not be destroyed at the conclusion of an investigation, but the information discovered can be shared with "state, local and tribal governments" and for "appropriate private sector entities", which remain undefined.

Of course, this tool in the 'war on terror' is a valuable one. Problem is no one knows. No one in Justice, the FBI, Congress or the White House audits the use of these letters to determine their value in the 'war on terror' or any other criminal investigation.

Is this the kind of government we want?

Yoo's Arguments Go Up In Smoke

In the current issue of the New York Review of Books David Cole, a Georgetown professor, demolishes the arguments of John Yoo, the former Justice Department lawyer whose bizarre interpretation of the constitution has damaged us so much both internationally and domestically.

Yoo is the writer of memos that say that the President is above the law when it comes to his role as Commander-in-Chief. Treaties don't count. Congress does not have the power to declare war, nor does it have any say when it comes to foreign affairs. Torture is okay. Violation of the Geneva Convention is permissible. Sending captured enemies to undemocratic countries is fine.

The question is: have these claims and their implementation helped or harmed us in this 'war on terror'? The answer is obvious to anyone who has had their eyes and ears open these past two-and-a-half years.

It boggles the mind

Scientists at IBM have figured out a way to slow light down. We may have to re-learn that light does not always travel at 186,282,000 miles a second. Or, at least it does not do so when IBM wants to store it in a silicon chip on an experimental basis. Practical applications are a long way off, but if it proves practical in the manufacturing world, we'll have faster computers and faster web processing.

Incidentally, the head researcher on this project is Yurii Vlasov. Will tighter immigration standards result in discoveries of this magnitude being made other than in the US of A?

This is November in New England?

It's 60 degrees here and sunny and it's November 5. It's been like this most of the week and is forecast to continue for at least another week. We really need it, as the weather to this point in the year has been abysmal.

But, we also need it to counter the string of bad news lately: nine days of riots in France with no end in sight, protests in Argentina, people freezing in Pakistan, the escalating insurgency in Iraq, the shame of Guantanamo and other secret prisons, Katrina and its aftermath, the limited water and gasoline in Florida after Wilma, the vitriol invoked by the Alito nomination etc., etc.

We all have our own little quirks

You've got to have a certain weird sense of humor to appreciate this.

I picked up the above bit from this blog, The Kackistocrat's Handbook for the Recently Deceased.

Give me your tired and your poor

Okay, it's not the 20th century anymore and Ellis Island is a park, not a port of entry to this country. But, building a fence from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico to keep out illegal immigrants? You gotta be kidding.

Except that Duncan Hunter, California Congressman, is not kidding. He wants to have us pay an unknown amount to build a 2,000 mile fence in order to keep out illegal immigrants. Perhaps he should also build a fence on our Northern borders from whence came Mohammad Atta.

This reminds me of what Russia did in Berlin. Will Hunter name his construction the Mexico Wall?

Another weapon in the war on terror

In today's Washington Post Dana Priest has a lengthy article about another questionable artifact in the war on terror: CIA secret prisons.

According to Priest, the CIA has made deals with foreign countries, many in Eastern Europe, whereby the CIA can stash people in prisons for perhaps the rest of their lives and, while they are in prison, treat them in any way they feel like whether or not such treatment violates the laws of the host country, the US or the international community.

Okay, maybe they've got some really bad guys in these jails. But, there are several concerns as to the wisdom of this program, particularly as to whether it will come to haunt us. For example, does any of the following square with our proclamations of freedom and justice:

• The only members of Congress who know about the program are the chair and vice-chair of the House and Senate intelligence committees. Not even the members of these committees know.
• Should the existence of the program become known, the US would be open to legal challenges even in those countries which house the prisons.
• It is illegal for us to hold prisoners in such isolation in the US. So, we do our dirty work outside of the range of US law.
• We and most other countries have signed the UN Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. Yet, the CIA interrogators in these prisons are allowed to use methods forbidden by this UN treaty.
• This policy was established based on a presidential 'finding' that gave the CIA broad powers in the war on terror. However, such findings must not break US law.

Will this article lead to anything beyond outrage and the feeling of "I told you so" among Muslims?

Only 1 Criterion?

Is a Supreme Court nominee's view of abortion the only thing that matters? That's certainly the impression I get from scanning the media on both sides of Alito. What about the questions of competence and relevant experience? Are they not more important than whether one is for or against abortion? After all, there are a heck of lot of issues that will or should be facing the Supreme Court over the next twenty or so years. Here are a few examples that I can think of at 7 in the morning of an unseasonably warm November day.

• Does the fact that Congress has not declared war in fifty years mean that they have abdicated their constitutional power to do so?
• Are Americans more evil than other nations? If not, why are so many of our fellow citizens in jail? Do we try to control people's lives too much? And why are the majority of the inmates black or Hispanic or from the inner city? Are they more prone to criminality than white people or those who live in the suburbs? Or, just maybe the odds are stacked against them from birth?
• Does allocating $200,000,000 to abstinence programs violate the separation of church and state? What about making these programs a condition of our foreign aid?
• Does a failure to prosecute higher-ups in the Abu Gharaib scandal give these people more rights than the soldiers who have been convicted?
• Does the Patriot Act abrogate any of our inherent rights to privacy?
• Does concocting false reasons for going to war violate any oaths of office?
• Is the government's failure to act in times of emergency a violation of people's rights?
• Should the executives of companies that fail to adequately fund their pension liabilities be held personally accountable? Or should the burden of paying the pensions fall to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (aka you and me)?
• Should those who send our soldiers into battle without proper equipment be prosecuted?
• Can a President be prosecuted for fiscal irresponsibility?
• Is there some minimal measure of competence that presidential nominees must meet?
• Should those who run our education system be brought up on charges of dereliction of duty?
• What are the legal ramifications of stem cell research, cloning, nanotechnology?
• Should the government pay people to fully convert to HDTV?
• Have we lived up to the treaties we have signed?

And the list could go on and on. We're living in parlous times. But we allow our leaders to spend their time focusing on the non-essential.

Another good candidate?

I guess if you're in your second term, you don't want to try something new. Why hire someone who might know something about the territory? It looks like Bush has nominated another less than sterling candidate to help run our government. He has nominated Ellen Sauerbrey to be Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees and Migration. While she has been a state legislator, a candidate for Maryland Governor and has recently served at the UN, she appears to have zero experience in re-settling refugees or international crisis management.

She's being lambasted for being anti-abortion, but that shouldn't be the primary reason why she should not be named to the front-line position of managing refugee affairs. The straightforward, unemotional reasons why she should not be appointed are summarized by the head of Refugees International.

There's a first time for everything

Yesterday at the opera, for the first time, I saw a line snaking out the Men's Room door. Maybe, things are becoming more equal.

More indictments at Refco?

Santo Maggio, who was put on leave with Bennett, has now started talking with the prosecutors. He was with Refco for twenty years in very high positions and likely knows what really happened there. I suspect that we'll be seeing more indictments.

A few small steps for the better at Guantanamo

The Pentagon has finally agreed to let some UN monitors into the Guantanamo complex. They'll be able to look around at many things but will not be allowed to talk to the detainees. Of course, we "have nothing to hide."

A judge has ruled that lawyers for those on a hunger strike must be told prior to force feeding and must receive medical reports weekly.

The Volcker Report

In general, I'm opposed to economic sanctions on the grounds that the people, rather than the rulers, of the country are the ones injured. Now, with the report by the Independent Inquiry Committee led by Paul Volcker we see that not only are the rulers not injured, but they can also make a good dollar from a sanctions program, such as the Iraq Oil for Food program.

While it took a while for Saddam and his boys to catch on, they were able to earn at least $1.8 billion in a couple of years. The money came from two sources: those who bought oil from Iraq (139 companies paid $229 milion to Saddam) and those who supplied food and other necessities (2,253 companies paid $1.55 billion to Saddam). Note that just about two-thirds of those companies supplying Iraq paid bribes. That's a pretty high rate of ethically-challenged people. I say 'people' because the report emphasizes that a particular company may really not have known what their employer or agent was doing and may not have benefited from the crime.

Companies, organizations and individuals named in the report include: Volvo, Siemens, Daewoo, Daimler Chrysler, Weir, AWB, Orthodox Church of Russia, Palestine Liberation Front, BNP, France's Interior Minister. Oscar Wyatt, a noted American oilman, was indicted last week on charges of making illegal payments to Saddam.

The design of the program was flawed in that Iraq was allowed to choose both the buyers of its oil and those who sold Iraq the food. Thus, Iraq had leverage in both sides of the transaction. It used that leverage to try to influence nations, such as Russia and France, that were reasonably friendly toward it and also to make money for Saddam. Further, the escrow bank, BNP, was allowed to issue letters of credit that financed purchases of oil. Finally, there are questions as to the effectiveness of the companies hired to monitor the program.

All in all not very pleasant reading.

China and Education

As those who read these scribblings regularly know, the subjects of the rise of China and the decline of education in America receive a fair amount of my time. Today's NY Times discusses China's push in graduate level education in science and technology. You know: something similar to the push here after Sputnik.

China is recruiting professors from around the world to staff their universities and research labs. And they're able to convince people from places like Princeton, Yale and MIT to come to China to help it become known as having the leading universities in the world over the next ten to twenty years.

The education push has been going on for almost thirty years and has succeeded in increasing the percent of its college-age population who actually are in college from 1.4% in 1978 to 20% now. Many of these students are in engineering: 442,000 undergraduates, 48,000 with masters, 8,000 with doctorates.

While China by no means practices the same type of academic freedom that we have here - and that freedom is really necessary if they are to succeed on a grand scale beyond mere numbers -, I suspect that they will gradually loosen up over time. Whether they move fast enough to keep the people they've recruited is the question.

I suppose it should be expected

If Refco had difficulty closing their books most months, why should one expect them to know how much they owe various firms? On October 17, Refco listed VR Global Partners as being owed $380.1 million. Yesterday, they said it was $620 million. A minor correction. A similar change occured with Bawag P.S.K.: $451.1 million on the 17th, $234 million yesterday. And so it goes.

PETA Must Love Rome

The Rome city council has adopted an animal 'bill of rights'. Walk your dog regularly. Don't put fish in a round bowl. Don't cut cat's nails. And more.

Surprise, Surprise

The NY Times is reporting that Miers has withdrawn. Frankly, I really am surprised. I guess Bush doesn't think he controls the Senate anymore. Will the next nominee be more conservative than Miers? Probably.

Another case of reality or fantasy?

Some economists have begun to question the validity of the statistics coming out of China. Maybe, China's numbers can be questioned, but the reality of their growing importance and power in the world cannot.

An Asian View of China

In a recent issue, Foreign Affairs published a series of essays about China, looking at the country from a Chinese and an Asian perspective rather than from the viewpoint of a Western expert on China as is the usual approach.

A Chinese Perspective
While the essays by the mainland Chinese writers, one an academic, the other a leader of a think tank, have to be read with a degree of skepticism, there are some interesting ideas there.

First is the recognition that China’s rise to power has been peaceful; unlike Germany and Japan, for example, they have not gone to war to make the gains they have in the past thirty years. They realize that, while the gains have been considerable, they still have a long way to go. They rate the country as a “low-income developing” one, whose economy is ranked at about 100^th in the world; they don’t expect to become a “modernized, medium-level developed country” until 2050.

In the long run, they view as inevitable the arrival of a multi-lateral world where the US is not the sole primary power; however, they recognize that, in the short run, we are #1. Not surprisingly, they see almost all the same serious domestic problems here that observant Americans see: “swelling trade and fiscal deficits, illegal immigration, inadequate health care, violent crime, major income disparities, a declining educational system and a deeply divided electorate”.

And, they see our international problems as well: the Iraq war has isolated us from our natural allies; we’re becoming a pariah with many Islamic nations; prisoner abuse calls into question our commitment to human rights; we have trouble coming to agreements with other countries re trade, environmental, arms control, the UN, economic issues. That’s fine with them as “so long as the United States’ image remains tainted, China will have greater leverage in multilateral settings”.

In terms of specific US-China issues, three countries are mentioned: Japan, North Korea and Taiwan. They believe that with regards to Japan and China “the United States has pushed China and Japan further apart”. They urge a go slow attitude with North Korea and a resumption of the six-nation talks. Of course, they consider Taiwan an internal matter; however “only by coordinating its US policy with its policy toward Taiwan can Beijing curb the separatist forces on the island”.

An Asian Perspective
The writers here are from Hong Kong University and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.

The Hong Kong writers focus on China’s need for energy, pointing out that it is now the world’s second largest importer of oil. The fear here is that the search for energy by the US and China could result in war unless both parties are very careful and understand that the prosperity of each nation is dependent on “viable oil prices, secure sea-lanes and a stable international environment”.

From the perspective of at least one Singaporean intellectual, “the United States is doing more to destabilize China than any other power. And no one in Washington seems to be proposing, much less pursuing, a comprehensive new strategy for US-Chinese relations”. Yet, we have done more to promote the growth of the Chinese economy than any other country.

Our leaders seem to be unaware of the degree of change that has occurred in China. In the writer’s opinion, the governing class in China is the best in centuries, but we still see little old men as running the country. This new crop of leaders is relatively conservative when it comes to the social arena and fears moving too fast here as it may unleash forces that could wreak havoc with world order. Patience is necessary as is the acceptance that China is not ready today for democracy. A gradual movement is probably better for everyone.

These essays were, I thought, thoughtful and worthy of being read by those of us who believe that we must start developing a strategy for a multi-power world.