John Kenneth Galbraith

Brad DeLong has what I think is a balanced obituary on the man who had a large role in explaining economics to the average reader as well as a large role in making us a better nation in the 20th century.

A Different President

When I first wrote about President's signing statements back in March, I didn't realize how many more of these statements Bush has signed. His father signed 232, Clinton signed 140 in eight years, George W. Bush has signed 750 in a little over five years. This translates to about one a week for Bush pere, one every three weeks for Clinton and three a week for Bush fils.

The signing statement business is relatively new; Meese started it under Reagan. Most of the presidents since then have used the signing statements to record their disagreement with relatively minor aspects of a bill; they vetoed the bill if they had major disagreements. How many bills has the current President vetoed? Exactly zero.

Again, are we becoming a nation of laws or of men?

Mountain Greenery

May 1, 2003 - "Mission Accomplished"
May 1, 2005 - Downing Street Memo published

May 1, 2006 - For today, forget the lies and deception which are now endemic to this world in which we live. Just think about this great Rodgers and Hart song, especially as sung by Ella Fitzgerald, Mel Torme or Matt Dennis:

On the first of May, it is moving day,
Spring is here, so blow your job,
Throw your job away!

Now's the time to trust,
To your wanderlust,
In the city's dust you wait, must you wait
Just you wait.......!

In a mountain greenery,
Where God paints the scenery
Just two crazy people together.

While you love your lover,
Let blue skies, be your cover-let,
When it rains we'll laugh at the weather.

And if you're good,
I'll search for wood,
So you can cook... while I stand look-in'

Beans could get no keener reception in a beanery
Bless our mountain greenery home!

Mosquitoes here,
Won't bite you dear,
I'll let them sting, me on the finger!

We could find no cleaner retreat from life's machinery
Then our mountain greenery home.

Another mistake for the Democrats

I see where Senator Schumer is heading the Democrat's efforts to win more Senate seats, while Rep. Emmanuel is doing the same for the House. Schumer, in particular, seems to be a caricature of someone who really cares about this country. I can't see how he can convince the centrists to return to the Democrats; all he can do, perhaps, is energize the converted, of which there are fewer and fewer.

Imagination? Ideas? Principles? You won't find them in either major party. We need a different way of voting, one in which the incumbents are not, by and large, shoo-ins. We've had too many years of being governed by people who care more about their careers than their country. It's time to throw the rascals out.

A Small Opening?

Iran announced that it is willing to allow the IEAE to resume "intrusive inspections" if the matter of their nuclear activities is removed from the Security Council agenda. This is not good enough for our government.

Words, Damned Words

As you read these words, are you receiving or collecting information? Does it make a difference?

Since 1878, the military has been prohibited from domestic law enforcement activities. Yet, the 902nd Military Intelligence Group spends part of its day surfing the Internet, particularly sites that seem to have an activist bent. When a suspicious site is found, information from that site is downloaded, e-mails between people visiting that site are intercepted. The information "received " then goes through a data mining process involving databases of domestic law enforcement units. If, in the judgment of the 902nd, there is a possibility of something bad happening (such as an anti-war demonstration), the local police are notified of the danger. This sounds like being involved in domestic law enforcement activities to me.

The Army disagrees with my judgment. Military rules prevent soldiers from gathering information on American citizens. However, the military operates on the basis that 'receiving' information - including information from the Web - is permitted. It is on this premise that twenty anti-war groups have been monitored for the past three years. It is on this premise that they may be watching you read this and noting that fact.

Time for hard decisions

The Financial Times has a few words to say about our current energy situation. Here is its conclusion:

In the end, however, America's addiction can be beaten only by hard policy decisions: rigorous fuel-efficiency standards, a tax regime that prices petrol realistically, as well as a framework of incentives for investment in alternative technologies. Meanwhile, the best agent of change is expensive oil.

Constitution? What Constitution?

If a President signs a bill that has not passed one or both houses, is the bill legal? Apparently, the Bush administration thinks it is despite the fact that the Constitution says that the same version of a bill must pass both houses of Congress before it can be signed by the President to become law.

Mr. Bush signed the "Deficit Reduction Act" in February, but the version he signed had not passed the House. It differed in what benefits it provided to people for renting medical equipment. The House voted to pay three years of benefits; the bill Bush signed called for 13 months.

A group of Democratic Congressmen have instituted suit challenging the signing. Do we have a government of laws or of men?

Will Sistani Succeed?

This is not the first time Ayatollah Ali Sistani has been a voice of reason in Iraq.

What has happened to the Red Cross?

We've read about their poor performance in Katrina's aftermath. They have had three presidents in three years. In 2003 they were ordered by the courts to improve their blood safety provisions. They're trying to address the first two problems, but are having a very hard time addressing the third, blood safety.

The court order imposed a fine of up to $10,000 a day for each unit of bad blood. There have been dozens of fines imposed under this order. In 2004 they released 607 pints of contaminated blood in New Jersey. In November 2005, more than two years after the court order, they were fined $47,000. They face an even larger fine stemming from 200 problems at its NY blood facility.

It's not as though blood is a small deal for the Red Cross. It is, by far, the largest contributor to the organization's revenue. It brings in $2.1 billion out of total revenue of $3.92 billion.

One view of Jawad al-Maliki

Robert Dreyfuss has a very definite view of Iraq's new prime minister.

It's politics, not any sort of attempt to really address the problem

People are upset about the cost of gasoline. Bush has to be seen to be doing something about it. So, he'll stop putting oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, lower environmental regulations, ask Congress to roll back tax breaks to oil companies, talk about new technologies. Will this lower our cost by more than a couple of cents a gallon, which 'saving' will disappear later this summer?

Will he turn back time and not invade Iraq? Will he stop sabre-rattling re Iran? Will he upgrade fuel-economy standards, particularly for SUVs? Will he really encourage conservation by increasing the gas tax? Will he pay attention to what is happening in Nigeria, where the rebels announce price increases by e-mailing Wall Street? Will he make it less costly for us to import ethanol from Brazil? Will he investigate the possible use of shale oil here in the US?

What is the real cost?

Yesterday's NY Times talked about the attempt to restore oil pipelines in Iraq. It is not a pleasant story.

The contractor and the Army Corps of Engineers ignored warnings from geologists that the project should not begin until significant testing of the area had been done as they were concerned about "past tectonic activities near the site", which meant that the area was unstable and perhaps a fault zone. Special techniques would need to be used.

These warnings were ignored and no special techniques were used. The project was not completed although $75,700,000 was spent. A second attempt at $66,000,000, using techniques initially recommended, has been declared "essentially a completed project" by the Army. Yet, oil is still not flowing there.

Okay, you might say, we wasted $75 million. But, you ignore the fact that we're talking about oil here and the project was started in 2003. The oil was going to fund Iraq's reconstruction. Need I remind you that just about zero petrodollars have been available to fund the reconstruction. Would things have turned out differently if this and similar projects had succeeded? Would Iraq be such a disaster today?

Here are some observations from the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction:

• The geological complexities that caused the project to fail were not only foreseeable but predicted.
• The money lost from crude oil exports was as much as $5,000,000 a day
• The company restricted subcontractor communications by requiring all communications be addressed to them.

KBR, a unit of Halliburton, was the contractor.

Scientific Judgment: 2006

From Dr. Susan Woodcock, Deputy Operations Commissioner of the FDA, speaking of the Plan B contraceptive, "As an example, she stated that we could not anticipate, or prevent extreme promiscuous behaviors such as the medication taking on an 'urban legend' status that would lead adolescents to form sex-based cults centered around the use of Plan B."

I'm not sure I believe this

But it may be true that the U.S. military command in Europe now spends 70% of its time and energy on Africa. Gen. James Jones, the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, says, "Africa plays an increased strategic role militarily, economically and politically."

The focus on Africa is due to things I've written about for a while: the terrorist threat, their growing oil production and the encroachment of China. It's refreshing to hear Gen. Jones understand our changed world and start to take actions that will help align African nations with us.

What makes the Journal interesting

That's the Wall Street Journal I'm talking about. Sure, it's the best business paper in the U.S. But, it's the 'middle column' on the front page that moves it beyond business. Take today, for instance.

The column discusses the cleaning habits of Italian women. They are much more rigorous and less interested in convenience than American women. Italians spend 21 hours a week on household chores (excluding cooking); American women spend 4. Italians iron almost everything: sheets, socks, underwear. They also buy more cleaning products than women elsewhere; 72% of them own more than eight cleaning products. And the cleaning thing is not restricted to old women. Most Italian young women want to clean "the way my mother did things".

Why is there an Office of Drug Safety?

The FDA has major responsibilities for the nation's physical well-being, particularly since drugs have become such an important component in medicine. I'm old enough to recall a time when it was a big deal to be taking drugs. Now, there are very few people I know who don't take at least one drug a day. However, in the past few years - vide the VIOXX scandal - the FDA has had difficulty fulfilling its responsibilities.

The GAO (General Accountability Office) has just released a report focused on the FDA's oversight of approved drugs. The oversight is not very clear and seems to be needlessly complex. First of all, there are two groups within FDA that are involved with what they call postmarket drug safety: the Office of New Drugs and the Office of Drug Safety. The GAO found that the offices seem to be confused about who should do what, which leads to a question of what should be done when. The drug safety office has had a number of management changes over the past ten years (eight directors in that time period). That may explain why the office does not track information about drug safety or participate much in advisory committees or have their views listened to. What do they do?

An Example of What Is Wrong in Washington

Since 1969 there has been a bipartisan softball league made up of federal employees playing in Washington every Summer. This year there will be two leagues as over the Winter a group of Republican teams accused the league 'commissioner' - if you can believe they would need one - of running a socialist playoff system that gave poor teams an unfair chance to win the playoffs.The Democrat commissioner accused the rebels of promoting class warfare.

These teams are not made up of Senators and Congressmen. They are comprised of their aides, agency employees and other federal hangers-on. I guess it was naive of me to hope that these overly partisan Senators and Congressmen would hire mature adults.

The FBI Is Busy

Of course, they still have trouble getting their computer system to work and communicating with other branches of the government. But, these are minor problems.

They are investing their time and money in really important issues. They have the people to look at Jack Anderson's papers, although some of the papers are at least 50 years old and others contain information that has been published elsewhere. They have $250,000 to pay the informant in the Lodi case. Good uses of our tax money!

More Waste

The Department of Defense (DOD) spends about $20 billion a year developing systems to use space to support military operations and gather information. Unfortunately, it does not spend that money wisely.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has found projects costing almost twice the original estimate and being as much as six years late. It looks like a lot of the problem is due to hubris and poor project management. DOD starts more programs than it has the budget for and it starts them before ensuring that there is a reasonable chance that the program can be completed within budget and on time. Plus, if they get a good idea mid-project, they include it.

Will he be silenced?

The former Cardinal of Milan says that condoms are a "lesser evil" if used by married couples, one of whom has AIDS.

Sleeping on the job?

Reminder of the '60s

I had no idea who Pink was - and still don't. Is it a trio? Is it a soloist with backup? Whatever. The song sounds like a '60s protest song.

Maybe the ambassador is right

The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. attributes the growing focus on China as a military threat to the defense industry's need for more business. Yes, China's 'official' defense budget has increased 10% a year for the past few years. And, yes, the official number may understate reality somewhat. But we spend close to $600 billion a year compared to China's 'official' budget of less than $50 billion. Is the threat from China so imminent that we have to spend 16% of the total federal budget on defense?

What galls me even more than the amount we are spending is the waste involved. I've written often about the money flushed down the drain in Iraq. But there is waste here at home as well.

For example, take something called in defense-speak 'award and incentive fees'. As the name implies, these are fees to encourage defense contractors to do a very good job - produce better products in a shorter time for less money. Well, it seems that many people in DOD have confused an average job with a very good job.

Would you say that the Space-Based Infrared System is a very good job when its cost is double the original estimate and it is more than a year late? DOD gave the contractor 74% of the award and incentive fee. How about the Joint Strike Fighter? 30% over estimate, a year late? DOD paid the contractor the full award and incentive fee. The list goes on.

The General Accountability Office (GAO) recently completed a study of 93 contracts which have cost us $51 billion. DOD paid 90% of the targeted award and incentive fees "regardless of whether acquisition outcomes fell short of, met, or exceeded DOD expectations".

Like many in government today, DOD has a problem understanding the meaning of words. They feel that "paying a portion of the fee for satisfactory performance is appropriate to ensure that contractors receive an adequate fee." They don't see a disconnect between 'satisfactory' and 'incentive'. Or, is it that they just want to low ball the initial contract? Whatever the reason, what this means for you and me is that, on these 93 contracts, $8 billion of our money was given away without getting anything in return. That's almost 16% of the cost of the contracts. Hmm, 16% of a $600 billion budget is $96 billion. That's not exactly chicken feed.

Perhaps the most devastating article on Bush

Sean Wilentz, an historian at Princeton, is probably a liberal. But, even an open-minded conservative would have to think twice after reading this article. And to think we have another 33 months of this disaster.

A Surprise from Peggy Noonan

Noonan has some home truths to say about GW. And in the Wall Street Journal, no less.

Spring is here

A Good and a Bad Left?

For some unknown reason, there's been a fair amount of writing on the web and elsewhere about Latin America this week. Perhaps, the most observant article is from Foreign Affairs. Jorge Castaneda, a former Mexican Foreign Minister, writes about "Latin America's Turn to the Left".

Castaneda makes the point that, as the people are gaining more power in Latin America, two forms of leftists have arisen: those, like Chavez, who are motivated by dreams of power, and those, like Lula, who, at least for now, seem to really have the people's interest at heart. He urges us to actively support the latter, while engaging the former only on matters of real importance and then clearly articulating the obligation of these countries to abide by their countries' commitments to human rights and democracy.

Man or Beast?

The BBC reports two stories today that demonstrate many of us are still more bestial than human. In Kenya an uncle killed his 14-year old nephew who had AIDS. In Mexico a priest killed his girlfriend of nine years (they started dating when she was 13 and he 29) and chopped her body up with a kitchen knife.

Now he wants to stop the practice

It looks as though UnitedHealth and its chairman, William McGuire, is worried. They have been the featured story in both yesterday's and today's Wall Street Journal and the articles have not been favorable. In March they were also the subject of an article questioning the timing of stock options.

Today's story reports that McGuire has recommended to his board that the company suspend many forms of its compensation to senior executives. Among the compensation forms he would like to suspend or cap: stock options, change of control payments, supplemental retirement benefits and other perquisites such as financial-planning services.

Perhaps McGuire's recommendations may be considered by other companies, or at least those companies cited in the March Journal article.

A typical Fortune 500 board?

"He needs to be compensated appropriately so that his business model has believability in the market."

"A lot of the board's job is to keep him motivated."

"If we did reduce these things, Bill would take it as a signal that directors weren't enthusiastic about his leadership."

Those are quotes from members of UnitedHealth's board speaking of the compensation paid to the CEO, Dr. William McGuire. In the past six years, he's cashed in $488,000,000 from his stock options and he still has about a billion more in his portfolio. Of course, his market timing ability re the grant of his options defies the odds.

It's true that not only has he made an absolute bundle of money, but the stock has increased many-fold under his watch. So to say that the "believability" of his business model is questioned in the marketplace and only by paying him astronomical sums will he have this "believability" is grasping at straws to explain why he is overpaid. You might ask the second director quoted above as to whether he is over-motivated by such generous compensation. The third director must be someone who spoiled his kids and thinks of a CEO as still a kid.

You have to wonder how much these board members are paid. Also, you might question as to why profits at UnitedHealth are so high. What would a single payer plan do to the company? How many people could be covered with the costs and profits of companies like UnitedHealth?

Jingoists, Unite

The war is not yet over. There is another battle to fight. China Construction Bank is talking with Bear Stearns about acquiring a minority interest.

Have you heard of SCO?

I hadn't, but we should be aware of it. SCO is short for Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Despite its name, it is an affiliation of China, Russia and the "Stans" (Kazakhstan, Krygstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) that was formed in 2001. It is growing; soon Mongolia, Iran, and our friends, India and Pakistan. will join the organization. It appears to be an attempt to counter our role in Central Asia by establishing a NATO-like organization.

The acceptance of Iran at this time is, I'm sure, quite calculated. The IEAA report is due at the end of the month. We are making all sorts of threats against Iran. By joining SCO, Iran gets access to technology, investment and trade.

At an upcoming SCO summit in June, they hope to anounce a common energy strategy and joint ventures in pipelines, exploration and other related activities.

First Amendment rights?

The idiots who protest at the funerals of veterans of the Iraq war feel that state legislatures are violating the group's first amendment rights by passing laws limiting one's right to protest at a funeral.




I'm not really upset at the signs they hold, as shown above. But holding them in the faces of mourners while yelling all sorts of tripe about homosexuality is not, I think, a human way to express one's opinions. Of course, they would probably stop if the media did not give them the publicity they seek.

We didn't hear much of this visit from a statesman

Equatorial Africa is the third largest supplier of African oil. Maybe that's why he was welcomed by the Secretary of State last week.

Friend of the People or Out for Himself?

Hugo Chavez, President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is probably one of the best marketing people in the world. Within his country, he has mobilized the poor by spreading cash around and seemingly improving their lives. I say 'seemingly' because an increase in infant mortality in 2004 and 2005 as well as an increase during Chavez' presidency in the percent of people earning less than $2 a day do not seem to me to be improvements. But, people who had nothing now have subsidized grocery stores, Internet access and medical care by doctors. On a daily physical basis they are probably somewhat better off and, as a result, will probably return to Chavez to office for as long as he wants.

However, on a political basis the people are moving into a world led by a dictator. Consider the new constitution: no congressional oversight of the army, eliminate term limits for the president, eliminate a two chamber legislature. Or, the blacklisting - and subsequent denial of rights, jobs and benefits - to those who signed a petition calling for Chavez' recall. Or, the packing of the Supreme Court. Or, a law allowing the government to suspend radio and tv stations that don't toe the line.

Chavez' role in Latin America is also worrisome. Here, he can spread money around, but is not responsible for the well-being of the people in Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, etc. There is a growing anti-American feeling in Latin America. Chavez is exploiting it and is becoming the leader of the region. We don't seem to be very interested in actions which might seriously influence events in the region in a positive way; we seem more interested in words..

Since we get about 14% of our oil from Venezuela, our continued dependence on oil has caused worries in our government. But Venezuela's oil requires specialized refineries, which exist in the US and in very few, if any, other places. Venezuela also owns Citgo with its 14,000 gas stations here. So, it is unlikely that Venezuela will stop selling us oil any time soon. Does this mean we should continue ignoring Venezuela?

Six Feet Up

I'm sure that we've all been in graveyards at some point. When I was younger and living in the city, I enjoyed driving and walking around Mount Auburn Cemetery in Cambridge. It was an oasis in the city. I was always struck by the number of mausoleums there. I never could remember the names of the people inside these structures, with one exception, Mary Baker Eddy, the founder of Christian Science. Yet, I suspect that most of those who erected a mausoleum there did so in the expectation that they would be recognized and acknowledged as someone important after their death. And they probably were recognized for a few years. But, eventually, almost all of us are forgotten, particularly if our claim to fame is wealth.

There appears to be a boomlet in mausoleums now. One builder of cemetery monuments sold 2,000 mausoleums last year, versus maybe 65 in the '80s. A cemetery in Daytona has sold - at $400,000 per - six of the fifteen mausoleums it built two years ago. The selling pitch for this development is "The mausoleum says I'm really significant in the world, I think I'm really significant to my family."

Of course, we all have the right to spend our money as we see fit. On Martha's Vineyard, many spend it on huge houses in which they may spend two months a year. It is likely that these same people would want a huge grave as well. I think that they would be more likely to remembered if they gave to charity the money they spend on ornate tributes to themselves.

Another sharp piece from James Carroll

He attributes the administration's stupidity over Iran to anger and despair.

Duelling Lobbies

Today's NY Times Week in Review features a full page ad from the Council for the National Interest Foundation (CNI). The ad is based on the paper I cited last week which argued that US policy re Israel and the Middle East was being overly influenced by the "Israeli lobby". CNI supports this position. It will be interesting to see whether the "Israeli lobby" strikes back.

Some words from William Sloane Coffin, Jr.

Are you a pacifist? Fifty-one/forty-nine. I'm a nuclear pacifist, that's for sure. But there is an irremediable stubbornness about evil. We have to recognize it, including our own complicity in it. We have to constrain it, but I doubt we will ever eradicate it. To say, "Grant us peace in our time, O Lord" -- God must say, "Oh, come off it! What are you going to do for peace, for heaven's sake?" It's not enough to pray for it. You have to think for it, you have to suffer for it, and you have to endure a lot for it. So don't just pray about it.

Self-righteousness destroys our capacity for self-criticism. It makes it very hard to be humble, and it destroys the sense of oneness all human beings should have, one with another.

God is not too hard to believe in. God is too good to believe in, we being such strangers to such goodness. The love of God is to me absolutely overwhelming.

It's clear to me, two things: that almost every square inch of the Earth's surface is soaked with the tears and blood of the innocent, and it's not God's doing. It's our doing. That's human malpractice. Don't chalk it up to God. Every time people say, when they see the innocent suffering, every time they lift their eyes to heaven and say, "God, how could you let this happen?" it's well to remember that exactly at that moment God is asking exactly the same question of us: "How could you let this happen?" So you have to take responsibility.

If you back off from every little controversy in your life you're not alive, and what's more, you're boring.

I remain hopeful. The opposite of hope is despair -- not pessimism, despair. And as a very convinced Christian, I say to myself, "Come on, Coffin. If Christ never allowed his soul to be cornered with despair, and his was the greatest miscarriage of justice maybe in the world, who the hell am I to say I'm going to despair a bit?

In our time all it takes for evil to flourish is for a few good men to be a little wrong and have a great deal of power, and for the vast majority of their fellow citizens to remain indifferent.

What we and other nuclear powers are practicing is really nuclear apartheid. A handful of nations have arrogated to themselves the right to build, deploy, and threaten to use nuclear weapons while policing the rest of the world against their production. . . . Nuclear apartheid is utopian and arrogant. It is a recipe for proliferation, a policy of disaster."

Even if you win the rat race, you're still a rat.

I think that hope reflects the state of our soul rather than the circumstances that surround our lives. So hope is not the equivalent of optimism. Its opposite is not pessimism but despair. So I'm always hopeful. Hope is about keeping the faith despite the evidence so that the evidence has a chance of changing.

Big Oil, Big Bucks

What will Lee Raymond, Chairman of Exxon Mobil, do in retirement? Will he go back to work?

In Praise of China's Economic Policies

Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize-winning economist, has some good words to say about China's economic development.

"Never before has the world seen such sustained growth; never before has there been so much poverty reduction." Strong words, indeed! Stiglitz attributes the country's success to a combination of pragmatism and vision as it "seeks sustainable and more equitable increases in living standards."

Mirabile dictu, it appears as though China acknowledges it has problems and tries to fix them. For example, China does acknowledge the problem of global warming and has adopted taxes on things (such as cars) that are felt to accelerate the problem.

While China is embracing a market economy, it realizes that there are some things that cannot be left to the dictates of the market; the government must act for the good of the country. Stiglitz feels that because China is willing to have a reasonably open discussion of its economic policies it can come up with creative ways to address its challenges.

He is worried, as he should be, that, as internal consumption and social spending increase, China's fantastic savings rate will diminish. This savings rate is one of the major factors financing our deficit. If there are less savings, will we be able to sustain our record debt level?

Finally I made a correct forecast

The results are in. As I predicted, Manter, Colaneri, Knabel and Athearn won in the Town elections. However, the vote in the first two races - for Selectman and Assessor - was closer than I had thought. Manter won by only 53, while Colaneri received only 10 more votes than his closest challenger. Colaneri won because his two challengers split the anti-incumbent vote; the vote for Colaneri was 300, the vote against 435.

Let's hope that there will be as much competition next year.

Trying to stay safe.

For safety sake, many Iraqis are changing their names so that they cannot be identified as either Sunni or Shiite. Others are moving to what they hope are safer areas.

A small surprise

Looking through the list of contributors to the current NY Review of Books, I saw that Henry Siegman had written an article entitled "Hamas: The Last Chance for Peace?" Since Mr. Siegman had headed the American Jewish Congress as well as the Synagogue Council of America, despite the title I was prepared for an anti-Hamas diatribe. Need I say that I was pleasantly surprised?

Mr. Siegman's basic argument is that Hamas is primarily interested in reciprocity. Israel's policy of unilateralism has resulted in Israel's enlarging its borders by 50% beyond that which was granted by the UN in 1947, while reducing the Palestinian area by 60% in the ensuing years. Hamas obviously wants this land situation reversed and seems as though it will accept previous agreements and renounce violence when Israel does so. The problem with this is that both Israel and Hamas seem like two kids, each of whom demands, "You go first."

He acknowleges that Hamas began as a terrorist organization and still has many members who are terrorists. However, he reminds us of Irgun, the Jewish terrorist organization that attacked the British.

More sense re Iran

The Blogging of the President seems to have a corner on sensible thoughts re the current situation with Iran. Read this by Stirling Newberry.

The drumbeats are getting louder

Another retired general wants Rumsfeld out. In today's Washington Post, Major General John Baptiste calls for Rumsfeld and company to leave.

What are we becoming?

R.J. Adams in Sparrow Chat has some trenchant observations on the Zacharias Moussaoui trial.

The IEA Agrees

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is worried as it looks like the balance berween supply and demand is teetering. More production is needed from OPEC to meet expected demand at current prices and, if prices do go lower, demand will increase. So, as I've said earlier, things are not looking up with regards to our supply of energy.

2006 will be a great year!

Two months into the year our trade deficit is running 13.5% ahead of last year when we set a record. I suspect you'll hear the administration boasting that the deficit is coming down, as February's deficit was $65.7 billion as opposed to January's $68.7 billion. They won't mention that we are on track to set a new record.

What moves Iran?

Ian Welch is Blogging of the President has some sensible thoughts on the country that is now in Bush's sights. The comments to his article are also worth reading.

Another small step

In advance of the visit by its president, China has agreed to lift the ban on US beef, to make it easier for US companies to bid on public Chinese contracts and to buy 80 737 planes from Boeing at a cost of $4.6 billion.

It was somewhat of a surprise

Last night's Town Meeting took a lot less time than most expected and came out on what I thought was the right side on most articles. The current Town Hall project is now officially dead and the Town, in passing Article 19, has decided to join the 21st century.

Tomorrow is the Town election. The commotion of the past year has resulted in three hotly contested battles. My prediction as to the winners: Manter for Selectman, Colaneri for Assessor and Knabel and Athearn for Finance Committee.

Tonight's the night

West Tisbury's Annual Town Meeting starts at 7p.m. tonight and, because there was a delay in getting all the articles on the warrant for the Annual Town Meeting, there will also be a Special Town Meeting.

Most of the articles on both warrants are rather mundane, but Article 19 is one that can start bringing the Town into the 21st century. This article requests that a committee be formed to conduct a Town-wide space needs assessment. Up to this point, the Town has addressed its space needs on a one-by-one basis. A typical approach has been: We don't provide our Town employees with adequate work space, so let's renovate the current Town Hall. A better approach is: how can we best solve the problem of providing adequate space to our Town employees. To do so requires a look at all of our building and land assets as well as the additional needs that will have to be met soon, such as the police station, library, animal pound, community hall.

There will also be considerable interest in the three Town Hall articles. Article 1 of the Special Town Meeting asks for $36,000 to get a better estimate of the cost of a less ambitious Town Hall renovation. The sponsors of this article apparently believe that the taxpayers will approve more money being spent on what seems to be a lost cause. Article 39 of the Annual Town Meeting asks for a rescission of the vote approving $3,705,000 for renovation of the Town Hall; this sum was almost $2,000,000 short of the proposed costs. The question here is the legalities of the article as $300,000 of the appropriation has been spent. Article 40 asks the Town to authorize the Board of Selectmen to sell the Town Hall to a conservation group and lease it back. This will never fly as it is giving the Board of Selectmen a blank check with no Town Meeting oversight.

The oddest article is 41 which wants to create the honorary office of Poet Laureate of West Tisbury. Since the Town considers itself the Athens of Martha's Vineyard, perhaps the first appointee will write his poems in Greek.

What? Me Worry?

I just paid $3.10 a gallon. Oil is close to $70 a barrel. No one really knows how much we have in oil reserves. Iraq's production is down and who knows when it will come back. Iran is making noises about what they'll do if they don't get their way re nuclear weapons. Terrorists are doing a number on Nigeria's oil production.

Don't worry. Be happy

A surprise from Time

Read this article by General Newbold.

The Media War on Terror

Mark Thoma at Economist's View has some solid comments about the battle for "hearts and minds"

The Working Stiff Continues to Get Screwed

The NY Times published its annual survey of executive pay today. Guess what? Things got worse in 2005. The average CEO of the 200 large public companies surveyed got a 27% raise. The average worker is lucky if he got enough to beat inflation.

The Times listed the details about the companies surveyed. Two columns are of interest: the percentage change in compensation over the year and the percentage change in the total return to stockholders over the year. Here are a few of the more egregious examples.

• Aramark - 98% increase in compensation, 12% increase in total return
• Cisco Systems - 475% increase in compensation, 8.5% decrease in total return
• Cooper Industries - 127% increase in compensation, 10% increase in total return
• CSX - 958% increase in compensation, 28% increase in total return
• Eastman Chemical - 151% increase in compensation, 8% decrease in total return

I could go on, but you get my point. Many executives are being paid exorbitant compensation for lackluster performance.

Another indication of the screwing of the working man is in the calculation of GDP. The GDP divides our national income (which is generated from the production of goods and services) into that which goes into profits and that which goes into wages.

Currently, R&D is treated as a cost, not a capital investment. This tends to overstate the proportion of GDP going to wages. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues the GDP data, is considering treating R&D as an investment and thus assigning it to the profit column of the GDP. Using this method, the share of GDP assigned to wages drops by 1%. What's 1%, you say? Do the math for a $12.5 trillion economy. 1% is a helluva big number.

As if we didn't have enough to worry about

The Strategic Studies Institute, a division of the Army War College, has published a study which raises the possibility of a threat from Russia. Things don't look good there. "Violence in the Caucasus, a demographic and health crisis, economic uncertainty, income inequality and a return to autocracy suggest a problematic future for Russia." If Russia becomes a failed state, the consequences for the world and us could be enormous.

Russia's attempt to use its energy resources as a weapon caused a great deal of unease in many European nations. It is trying to wean the EU from support of NATO. It is putting pressure on the Baltic states. It has yet to sign the EU's energy charter, which would restrict its energy moves somewhat.

The author asks why Russia is allowed to be a member of the G-8 as its predatory economic policies go against the very standards of behavior that are fundamental to membership. Russia appears to be doing very little with regard to its 18,000 tactical nuclear weapons.

How many balls can we keep in the air?

Provincial Stability Assessment

That's the title of a report prepared by the US Embassy in Iraq, the military in Baghdad and some people from reconstruction agencies. The report, which was obtained by the NY Times, is dated January 31, 2006. It differs quite a bit from the assessments made by Bush, Cheney etal in March.

The report looks at the political, economic and security situations in Iraq's eighteen provinces. It concludes that the overall stability of six of these provinces is serious and in one critical. Further, it appears that the ethnic and religious splits are becoming even more hardened. Couple these splits with reports of mass migrations from mixed Shiite-Sunni areas and you are moving towards a three Iraq situation - Shiite, Sunni and Kurd. Wasn't this partitioning talked about a couple of years ago? Will this be the final resolution of the situation?

I may not be old enough..

to avoid the next catastrophe, but there are more and more reports that the Bush administration is planning to attack Iran. Seymour Hersh in this week's New Yorker has an incendiary article about this issue. Hersh does have a lot of connections. He quotes many of them anonymously in his article.

He quotes a government consultant that Bush believes "that saving Iran is going to be his legacy." (my emphasis)
A former defense official says that military planning is premised on a belief that "a sustained bombing campaign on Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government."
A House member says "There's no pressure from Congress" not to take military action.
A Pentagon adviser warns "we have no clue where some of the key stuff is. It could even be out of the country."
A former high-level Defense Department official claims, "The Iranians don't have friends."
A recently retired high-level Bush administration official says, "Iran is a much tougher target than Iraq."

Some were willing to speak for the record:
Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near Easr Policy, told Hersh that Iran has no choice but to accede to America's demands or face a military attack.
Colonel Sam Gardiner estimated that at least 400 targets would have to be hit. "Some of the facilities may be too difficult to target..."
Robert Baer, former CIA agent, "These guys are nuts and there's no reason (for us) to back off."
President Bush in a speech in Cleveland last month, "I'll make it clear again, that we will use our military might to protect our ally Israel."

It just sounds a hell of a lot like the crap we were fed three years ago. We made the mistake then of not giving the inspectors enough time. We believed it would be a piece of cake and we would be hailed as liberators. After three years of demonstrating that we were wrong, of alienating our allies, of angering the Muslims, we're going to make the exact same mistake as before; this time, however, we may use nuclear weapons. Who are the nuts running the show? Do they have a death wish?

There are some sane people quoted in the article. One of whom, Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state in the administration, asks, "What will happen in the other Islamic countries? ...What does the attack do to our already diminished international standing? And what does this mean for Russia, China, and the UN Security Council?"

Signs of Spring on the Vineyard

Two fairly new Mercedes sporty coupes with out of state license plates

The GAO Reports

Each month the General Accountability Office (GAO) publishes a list of the reports issued that month. Some of the March reports that I found interesting are discussed below.

FBI
They've had a heck of a time with their information processing efforts. Their Trilogy project costs of $537,000,000 included such problems as

• No controls over accounting for purchased equipment, which led to 1200 pieces of equipment gone missing at a cost to us of $7,600,000
• Payment of $10,100,000 to contractors with little supporting documentation.

DOD
The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program is the 21st century replacement for the F-16. The problem is that, where the F-16 used tested technology, the JSF does not. However, DOD plans to produce 424 JSF by 2013, in which year it will complete its initial operational testing of the plane. Make sense to you? Especially when the 424 planes will cost almost $50 billion.

And the JSF program is not the only new technology DOD is trying to produce. The GAO looked at 52 programs (estimated to cost $850,000,000) and found similar poor management practices and, perhaps, excessive risk taking. Consider that in a typical DOD contract the final cost is usually 30 to 40% higher than originally estimated, deadlines are not met, performance falls short.

Homeland Security
Needs to hire some experienced IT people as they don't seem to be capable of developing the necessary computer systems to implement their mandate.

Department of Energy
I was a young man when I first heard of the plans to dispose of radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. DOE had quality control problems there in the '80s and in the '90s. They have yet, in the 21st century, been able to satisfy GAO auditors that Yucca Mountain will be a safe place to store nuclear waste.

Makes sense to me

It should be obvious that, in the final analysis, the quality of our education system is a function of how good our teachers are. It's clear that in education as in any other endeavor some people are better than others. However, because of many reasons few school districts collect the data needed to really evaluate teacher performance. As we know, once a teacher is granted tenure, it is much more difficult to make performance-related decisions.

There is a study by The Hamilton Project that tries to lay out a method for improving the teaching effectiveness of our schools. You'll find a summary here.

The method proposed is based mainly on an extensive study of the LA schools and is predicated on the idea that with a good teacher students learn better and learn more. It's fairly straightforward but, very likely, will be difficult to implement. The authors make five recommendations:

1. Reduce the barriers (such as certification) to becoming a teacher
2. Make it harder to tenure the least effective teachers
3. Give bonuses to highly effective teachers willing to teach in disadvantaged schools
4. Establish systems to measure teachers' job performance
5. Track student performance and teacher effectiveness over time.

Why get interest?

I'm tired of bashing FEMA and reading other people doing the same. But, the agency's inability to do even the simplest things boggles the mind. Take depositing money in the bank, for example. Foreign countries sent us $126,000,000 in cash after Katrina. (By the way, $100,000,000 came from that terrorist-supporting country, Dubai.) FEMA put half of it in a non-interest-bearing bank account! Even if they put it in an account paying only 1/10%, they'd have over $400,000 more today.

It's classified until I need to use it to save my hide

How does one square Libby's contention that Cheney told him that Bush ordered the release of classified information to Judith Miller with Bush's promise to take appropriate action if he found out that classified information was leaked?

In many cases it really is harder to maintain a lie than to admit an embarassing truth.

Things might get better with Coke

Coca-Cola has decided to reward its directors only if earnings per share grow at 8% per year for the next three years. If they do, they'll get $525,000. If they don't, they'll get zero. Sure, this policy may hamper Coke's ability to hire some directors. But it should also get directors more involved in making the company succeed.

What's more important?

The budget for the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) is $322,000,000. Of this, 20% is to be spent on AIDS prevention. Of this $64,000,000, the Office of the US Global Aids Coordinator (OGAC) has mandated that half should be spent on preventing sexual transmission of AIDS and that the majority (2/3) of these funds be spent on abstinence and faithfulness activities.

Well, some countries have a very different culture from ours in many matters including their sexual practices. Seventeen of twenty PEPFAR country teams told the GAO that the mandated allocation of funds to abstinence and faithfulness result in fewer dollars being available to prevent sexual transmission of AIDS by other means, means which may be more in keeping with the needs of the countries in which they serve. So, is it more important that abstinence be promoted or that the lives of people whose culture differs from ours be saved?

Mother Nature and some children

The fishapod
above and the Laotian rock rat
above and to the right.

GECF: the next OPEC

GECF is the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, fifteen gas-producing countries that first met in Iran in 2001. These countries control 73% of the world's natural gas reserves and 41% of production.

Natural gas provides 20% of the US electricity and heats more than half our homes. Until fairly recently we have been able to supply just about all our needs from US wells. Now, we get 13% from Canada and 4% from other countries, including Qatar. Since 2002 we have doubled the rigs drilling for natural gas here, but production has been flat. So, it looks as though we will soon be importing more of our natural gas than we have had to do. As importers, we will be joining Japan, South Korea and Europe in depending more and more on foreign countries to meet our needs.

The five foreign countries that have the most proven reserves are Qatar, Iran, UAE (remember Dubai?), Saudi Arabia and Russia. Our proven reserves rank thirteenth in the world. What are the future political and economic implications of importing more oil and more natural gas?

One Step Towards Better Disclosure

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has proposed a slight change in the way companies report their true pension assets and liabilities.

Now, much of the real information about a company's pension liabilities is hidden in footnotes. For example, looking at the balance sheet of the companies in the S&P 500 one sees a $99 billion net pension asset; however, scanning the footnotes reveals a liability of $165 billion. That is, the balance sheet is off by $264 billion.

If the FASB proposal becomes accepted, companies will have to show a truer balance sheet picture of their pension fund deficits or surpluses. This will make the balance sheet a more complete picture of reality, but, in so doing, it may cause some companies to drop their pension plans since such key ratios as debt/equity, which figures in many loan agreements, would likely be worse for many companies.

Read this

I didn't think that the Huntington Post would have much of substance to it, but I stumbled on Jane Smiley's comments to those Bush acolytes who are now deserting him and was pleasantly surpirsed. The article is somewhat over the top. However, there are nuggets there which illustrate my thesis that our leaders speak '1984'.

Rendition: Something to be Proud of?

The report by Amnesty International only mentions three people whose life has been destroyed by our government for what appears to be no good reason. Are there many more?

The strategy of using private aircraft is just another example of the administration's "1984" mentality.

Tax cuts benefit you and me. Right?

Not according to this study from the NY Times. If the numbers are correct - and they seem to be - the super rich (e.g., those making more than $26,000,000 a year) pay even less of their share of taxes than we had thought.

We're living in the best of times!

Maybe politicians actually did something..

and that something may actually be good for we citizens. Yesterday, the Massachusetts legislature passed what is as close to a universal health plan as you can get. It's nice to see the state be recognized for something that is positive and welcomed by all sides of the political spectrum.

Fastest Internet on the Planet?

Apparently, the FCC Chairman thinks so. This is another case of 1984 speak by those in power. Just look at what's happening in France and compare this to your throughput and costs here in the US.

BS?

Hamas says it wants to live in freedom and independence with its neighbors. Does this mean peace as well? Or, is it all a marketing ploy?

Do your ears become more sensitive?

When I was younger, I used to read and enjoy columns by Frank Deford, the sportswriter. But, once I started hearing him on NPR, my opinion of him changed as he tries to make every story an earth-shattering one and introduces a lot of what can only be called faux excitement.

Another media person about whom my opinion has changed is Christopher Lydon. He was always somewhat breathy when he did the news on Channel 2. But, Lord, on his show entitled "Open Source"(?) he really goes over the top implying that the web is the be-all and end-all of all knowledge and everything new in the world and his show is the place to be to get all this hot stuff.

Neither Deford nor Lydon is a young man. You would have thought they they would have picked up some restraint, some perspective on how radio should be used when you are talking to adults. All of this emphasis on the mundane, this rapid-fire speech, this desire to be hip is quite amateurish.