"There will be enough oil." Oh, really?

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) argues that, although oil production is declining at the rate of 4% a year, new fields will be discovered that will make up for the decline. 4% of today's output is 3,800,000 barrels a day. Other experts argue that the rate of decline is 8%. Fields in the North Sea, Alaska and New Mexico are declining at a rate of 18%.

But how CERA or any other expert can make accurate predictions is beyond me as there is little good production data from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

Even if the rate of decline is only 4% and new fields are discovered, demand will not stay still. This year alone it will jump by 2.3%. In future years it will only grow.