Friday, April 30, 2010
Second-rate Software
Minimizing Risk
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Not a Poster Child
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Proposed Financial Reform Explained
The Long Downturn?
- GDP growth year to year - In the 1960s the U.S. GDP grew 4.2%, a rate not matched in the ensuing decades; in the period 2000 - 2007 the annual growth was 2.3%. Germany is even worse; 4.4% to 1.2%.
- Labor productivity as measured by GDP per worker - From 2.3 to 1.7 for us and from 6.7 to 1.2 for Germany.
- Real compensation per employee - How he measures this I don't know but it went from 2.7 to o.6 for us and 5.7 to 0.2 for Germany.
- Profit rates - 14.6% in the 1960s for U.S. to 10% in the 21st century. Germany 17.7% to 9.5%.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Death Comes to All of Us
You can see that the only serious terrorism risks are in Northern Ireland and Israel; this should not come as a surprise. Whereas the risk in this country is 1 in 3,500,000. We'd have to have a 9/11 catastrophe every year to bring the risk down to 1 in 100,000. The amount of money we are spending on counter-terrorism is not well spent, although it makes the politicians think they are doing something for the country.
What else could we have spent $1 trillion on in the past nine years?
McClatchy Reports on the Credit Agencies Hearing
WASHINGTON — The chairman and chief executive of Moody's Corp. said Friday that he didn't know that his company continued to give investment-grade ratings to complex financial instruments backed by shaky subprime mortgages even after it downgraded billions of dollars worth of such deals in the summer of 2007.
His admission came during a daylong hearing by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which is looking into the origins of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Moody's chief Ray McDaniel, under questioning, said that he didn't think his company had continued to rate complex deals backed by U.S. mortgages after it and competitor Standard & Poor's jolted the markets in July 2007 with massive downgrades of earlier deals.
"I apologize, I do not recall that," McDaniel said.
The panel's chairman, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., then presented him with documentation that both Moody's and S&P gave investment-grade ratings to a Citigroup deal in December 2007, worth almost $400 million, backed by shaky subprime loans that by then clearly were toxic.
The point Levin was making — and made repeatedly — is that credit-rating agencies did whatever was needed to get lucrative fees, some as high as $1.4 million, for rating complex deals.
Later, McDaniel stressed that preserving market share "is not as important as ratings quality."
While other Wall Street executives have expressed contrition when they appeared before Congress, McDaniel and former S&P President Kathleen Corbet were unapologetic on Friday.
Throughout the day in earlier testimony and in e-mails released by Levin, however, former Moody's and S&P officials told how they were pushed out or quit in frustration because managers badgered them to "massage" complex deals until they could land the business.
A McClatchy investigation in October documented how top managers from the structured finance division, which rated the complex deals, were moved into the top executive suites at Moody's and effectively took over the company.
McDaniel and Corbet said they were unaware that their analysts felt pressured to sacrifice the quality of investment-grade ratings to maintain market share and earn the huge accompanying fees.
Investment-grade ratings gave investors the illusion of safe bets, allowing big Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs to peddle the securities across the globe. Moody's and its chief competitors were key players in the prelude to a near meltdown of global finance in September 2008.
Called to appear before the panel, Richard Michalek, a former Moody's vice president and senior credit officer, described the ratings process for deals that could bring more than $1 million in fees as a "must say yes" atmosphere.
Frank Raiter, a former managing director at S&P and the head of the group that rated pools of residential mortgages, told the panel that analysts routinely sought direction from top management about the shaky deals they were being asked to rate.
"The guidance was not forthcoming from the top," he said, later adding, "I retired because I got tired of the frustration."
Levin read e-mail after e-mail from inside the ratings agencies about deals that never should have been rated, much less received investment-grade ratings.
"These e-mails are just devastating to the kind of culture that is going on here," he said.
Most striking was testimony from Eric Kolchinsky, a Moody's managing director who in 2007 was in charge of the division that rated the complex deals called collateralized debt obligations. CDOs are securities backed by pools of U.S. mortgages that have been packaged together into bonds and sold to investors.
Kolchinsky recounted how in the first two quarters of 2007, his group generated more than $200 million in revenue for Moody's by giving complex deals investment-grade ratings _ which told investors that they were safe bets. In the late summer of 2007, however, Kolchinsky was informed by superiors that bonds issued a year earlier were about to be severely downgraded.
That should have required a new methodology for ratings on deals that were still pending, but when he tried to do that, he was told not to. It amounted to securities fraud, in his opinion.
"My manager declined to do anything about the potential fraud, so I raised the issue to a more senior manager," he testified. He said that the complaint resulted in a change to methodology. "I believe this action saved Moody's from committing securities fraud. Because of the culture, I knew what I did would possibly jeopardize my role at Moody's."
He was right. A month later, he was sent a nasty e-mail asking why his market share slipped from 98 percent to 94 percent in the third quarter. The e-mail came, he said, just days after Moody's had downgraded more than $33 billion in bonds backed by subprime mortgage loans. Less than two months after challenging the integrity of the ratings, Kolchinsky was removed from his post and given a lower-paying job elsewhere in the company with far less responsibility. He eventually left.
Under questioning from Levin, Kolchinsky acknowledged that he and his staff rated the complex Goldman Sachs deal that this month became the subject of fraud charges brought against Goldman by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The SEC alleges that Goldman failed to disclose to investors that hedge fund mogul John Paulson helped pick the mortgages in the deal with an eye toward betting that they'd fail. Kolchinsky said this information was never shared with Moody's.
"I did not know and … I am fairly certain my staff did not know either," Kolchinsky said.
Asked by Levin whether that would have affected the rating the deal received, Kolchinsky said yes.
"From my perspective it is something I would have wanted to know. It is more of a qualitative, not quantitative assessment. It changes the incentives of the structure," Kolchinsky said. "It just changes the whole dynamic of the structure."
In one e-mail presented by Levin, an S&P employee inquiring about evidence that subprime lender Fremont General was showing problems with poor underwriting was told not to worry about it. Levin seized on this e-mail when grilling Susan Barnes, an S&P managing director, angrily asking her why relevant information and poor performance was discarded.
"Why doesn't the supervisor say, 'Damn right, it's relevant,'?" demanded Levin, eventually coaxing a response from Barnes.
Barnes said that, "The assumptions we use in our criteria have obviously not panned out the way we had expected."
In written remarks, Corbet gave no ground. She said all deals were rated by teams of analysts, who were supervised by individual managers. Her role as president, Corbet said, was to set overall strategy and work with her parent company, McGraw-Hill.
McDaniel also offered no apology. Instead, he said that his company took steps to remedy what was going wrong as information became available. Former Moody's executives testified to the contrary.
McDaniel said that Moody's warned of declining underwriting standards for mortgages as early as 2003. However, Moody's continued to rate the complex deals backed by U.S. mortgages, which became a huge portion of the company's business.
Moody's is under pressure on many fronts. California Attorney General Jerry Brown this week filed a court action seeking to force Moody's to comply with a subpoena he issued for information seven months ago. A special Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, charged by Congress to report on the causes of the crisis, issued a subpoena to Moody's, complaining that the company has failed to provide information in a timely manner.
Perspectives on the Size of Big Banks
- In 1995 the six largest banks had assets which equaled 17% of GDP. That number today is 63%.
- What percentage of bank assets are owned by the ten largest banks? In 1990, 24%; in 2000, 44%; in 2009, 58%.
- In 1970 the Federal Reserve was given the power to limit the size of banks. It has exercised this power zero times.
- In 1994 a law was passed that no bank could own more than 10% of total deposits. Was it ever enforced? Not as far as Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Chase are concerned as they are in violation.
Adding to the cost of our wars
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Serving Main Street
Image by cliff1066™ via Flickr
Thomas Hoenig, President of the KC federal Reserve Bank, continues to argue for all of the banks in this country, not just the behemoths. In his opinion the Treasury should not have to petition anyone to put a dying bank in receivership; such a process is too likely to be subverted by the political clout of the big guys. And, in restricting the Fed to supervise only the behemoths, the proposed legislation ignores completely the 6,700 other banks in this country and makes the Fed the "central bank of Wall Street, not the central bank of the United States".The American Athlete in the 21st Century
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Maybe now something will be done
- Citi lied to Fannie and Freddie about the quality of the mortgages Citi had sold to them. Citi claimed the mortgages were "conforming". 60% were not.
- WaMu's testimony on Capitol Hill convinced Black that their accounting was fraudulent.
- And, the Goldman case makes three.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Finally, Someone is complaining about private military contractors
Image by Getty Images via Daylife
And that someone is General McChrystal. He thinks we rely on them too much. There are too many of them. And they cost too much.Not a good week for Goldman Sachs
Not yet airborne
There are still 200,000+ homes entering foreclosure each month. The Panel feels that there are ten homes that will be lost for every home that will be "saved". "Saved" is a relative term as some of those who are in the program will, in fact, very likely, default when the five-year modification period ends.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
McGovern Does Not Give Up Easily
- Would require the president to provide a plan and timetable for drawing down our forces in Afghanistan and identify any variables that could require changes to that timetable.
- Would safeguard U.S. taxpayer dollars by ensuring all U.S. activity in Afghanistan be overseen by an Inspector General.
- Does not set a specific date for withdrawal.
Bacevich and Moyers
BILL MOYERS: These civilian casualties that we've been hearing about, they're inevitable in war, right?
ANDREW BACEVICH: Sure they are. But I think that what's particularly important about the incidents that we're reading about is that they really call into question U.S. strategy. I mean, when General McChrystal conceived of this counterinsurgency approach in Afghanistan, one of the, sort of the core principles is that we would act in ways that would demonstrate our benign intentions. We're supposed to be protecting the population. And when it turns out that U.S. forces are killing non-combatants, and there are repeated incidents that have occurred, I think it calls into question the sincerity, the seriousness of the strategy. Or it calls into question the extent to which McChrystal is actually in control of the forces that he commands.
There doesn't seem to be any noticeable change, and any noticeable reduction in the frequency with which these incidents are occurring. So, I mean, were I an Afghan, I think I would not place a whole heck of a lot of credibility on the claims that, you know, "We're here to help."
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BILL MOYERS: General McChrystal himself has said that we've shot - and this is his words not mine—an amazing number of people over there who did not seem to be a threat to his troops.
ANDREW BACEVICH: I think that is—that's clearly the case. When McChrystal was put in command last year, and devised his counterinsurgency strategy, the essential core principle of that strategy is that we will protect the population. We will protect the people. And the contradiction is that ever since President Obama gave McChrystal the go-ahead to implement that strategy, we have nonetheless continued to have this series of incidents in which we're not only not protecting the population. But indeed we're killing non-combatants.----------------------------------------------------Well, here in the year 2010, nobody in the officer corps believes in military victory. And in that sense, the officer corps has, I think, unwittingly really forfeited its claim to providing a unique and important service to American society. I mean, why, if indeed the purpose of the exercise in Afghanistan is to, I mean, to put it crudely, drag this country into the modern world, why put a four-star general in charge of that? Why not—why not put a successful mayor of a big city? Why not put a legion of social reformers? Because the war in Afghanistan is not a war as the American military traditionally conceives of war.
It is the longest war in American history. And it is a war for which there is no end in sight. And to my mind, it is a war that is utterly devoid of strategic purpose. And the fact that that gets so little attention from our political leaders, from the press or from our fellow citizens, I think is simply appalling, especially when you consider the amount of money we're spending over there and the lives that are being lost whether American or Afghan.--------------------------------------------------------ANDREW BACEVICH: First of all, we need to assess the threat realistically. Osama bin Laden is not Adolf Hitler. Al-Qaeda is not Nazi Germany. Al-Qaeda poses a threat. It does not pose an existential threat. We should view Al-Qaeda as the equivalent of an international criminal conspiracy. Sort of a mafia that in some way or another draws its energy or legitimacy from a distorted understanding of a particular religious tradition.
The Rubber Room Is Closing...
He has to see the birth certificate...
Monday, April 12, 2010
Where we are now
A year and a half after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of the global financial system that followed, the US Congress still has adopted no new rules to reregulate financial institutions. Well over three years have passed since the housing market began to unravel after an unprecedented boom fed by Wall Street speculation. Some financial firms borrowed more than forty times their capital at the height of speculation in 2006 and 2007 to invest in mortgage and other securities. Yet today, there are still no significantly higher capital requirements for them. There are no restraints on multimillion-dollar banker compensation, except on the executives of companies that took and have not yet paid back bailout funds from the Bush administration’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Most of the major firms, including Goldman Sachs and even struggling Citigroup, already have.
There are no adequate new restrictions on the private credit-rating agencies such as Moody’s, which doled out AAA ratings in increasing numbers even as mortgage securities became far more risky in 2006 and mortgage defaults started to rise. There are no new requirements to trade derivatives openly and transparently, and they are still being traded in obscurity. The value of these highly leveraged and typically volatile instruments was based on other more stable securities, such as treasury bonds, which enabled investment firms to take on more risky investments while avoiding regulatory restrictions. And there are no new regulations to protect consumers from credit card or mortgage fraud, despite rampant deception and abuse of homeowners.
Meantime, financial institutions are thriving again. After many posted large losses in 2008, the banking firms earned record profits in 2009, and are set to pay as much as $145 billion in bonuses to their employees. The rest of the American economy is largely suffering. A congressional oversight panel headed by Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren reported in December that lending to businesses and consumers by major banks was down from the previous year, especially by the twenty banks that received the biggest bailouts. The unemployment rate hovers around 10 percent. When those who have given up looking for jobs or are taking temporary jobs are included, about one in six Americans who want to work full-time cannot do so. Household incomes are suffering in general and because of high levels of debt, few experts see a strong economic recovery in the making. Three years after housing prices fell by an average of one third, they are still not rising. As a result of the recession the federal deficit keeps increasing as tax receipts flounder, preventing the federal government from introducing programs to rebuild infrastructure, improve education, and provide health care for all Americans.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
You have to wonder
Image via Wikipedia
Twice in the past few days I've learned that a letter I or a friend sent was returned because it was supposedly undeliverable. Yet, my friend received a letter from the address to which she mailed her letter and my letter was properly addressed. Both envelopes were handwritten. I wonder whether the post office is scanning addresses and the scanner does not like some handwriting.Leaving Afghanistan
Making the numbers look better
Friday, April 09, 2010
They are dogged
Image via Wikipedia
The Westboro Baptist Church certainly knows how to get into the media - insult ("insult" is too weak a word) the dead, be they U.S. soldiers or West Virginia miners. Now they claim the mine explosion was God's work. He was retaliating to threats to the church and its esteemed pastor; the threats emanated from West Virginia.Bring back the draft
In the April issue of the same publication, Curtis Gilroy attempts to rebut Yingling's argument. I don't think he does an effective job. In fact, Yingling preempts many of Gilroy's reasons for backing the volunteer army.
I don't like ad-hominem arguments, but I note that Gilroy is a Pentagon employee in charge of recruiting. Yingling seems to be a rebel of a sort; he first became known to the general public with his article, "A Failure of Generalship", which was not exactly a paean of praise for our military leaders.
Thursday, April 08, 2010
Do as I say
Image via Wikipedia
That seems to be the advice of our new Senator, Scott Brown. His campaign touted fiscal control. Yet, he is backing GE's efforts despite the Pentagon's assertion that such an engine is not needed. to provide an alternative engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter So far GE has received $2.4 billion for its work on building the engine that the Pentagon does not want. Brown is not the first Mass. Senator to support GE. The contract means jobs for GE in Lynn. Hence, Kennedy and Kerry also supported GE.What's that old-fashioned saying about working for the good of the nation? Will we ever find a Senator who actually does that?
Apathy
Image by Mark Sardella via Flickr
It's a constant source of wonder to me how people can go ape over various government issues but do zippo to try to solve the problems they yell about. For example, Town Meeting is where the voters decide how their money is to be spent by their Town and what by-laws should govern them. Yet here on Martha's Vineyard very few voters attend Town Meeting. In 2009 the town with the highest percentage was Aquinnah with 18%; Oak Bluffs had only 6.3%. As a result, each voter who attended was responsible for approving almost $80,000 of a town's budget; 1221 voters spent $93,000,000.Another example: there are no contests for Town offices in West Tisbury. There are about twenty openings, none of which has a contest. There is even one where there is not a candidate. Other towns are not as bad, but, again, there are very few contests.
I've lived in a couple of places but, judged by letters to the editor of the local newspaper and overheard conversations, this is one place where no one and nothing is immune to criticism. And yet being a responsible citizen does not seem to be a fact of life here.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
If my son or daughter were fighting in Afghanistan...
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I think this is just another indication of the futility and stupidity of this 'adventure'. But, God, if my kid were over there, I'm not sure just what I would do.
Amex is not exactly a model for 21st century computing
- I wanted to cash in some points that had been collecting on my Amex card. I was surprised that my effort was rejected because I was not a member of the rewards program although we've been using the card for years. Then I was flabbergasted that the message that I was not a member was all I received. No phone number to call to get information on the subject. No web page to link to. Hey, if you're not a member, why should Amex try to make you a member.
- On the same day I received a marketing e-mail from Amex, I decided that it was time to cut the cord and pressed the unsubscribe button. That was not enough for them although it has been enough for every other company when I decided to unsubscribe. Amex needs a userid and password. I don't think they used my userid when they sent the mass mailing to me.