There was a disturbing article in Sunday's NY Times. The authors, Gary King and Samir Soneji, believe that the actuaries in the Social Security Administration have underestimated how long we will be living. If the SSA has erred in this estimate, the result will be dire; the fund will run dry two years earlier than the government estimate.
The SSA does not consider the effects on longevity of the decline in smoking in this country. In 1955 the percent of smokers in our population has declined a lot; for example, the percent of 40-year-olds who smoke has gone from 50% to about 10%. Further, we have improved the treatment of cardiovascular diseases quite a bit; deaths of this type for those 65 - 69 have been cut in half, from 300 per 100,000 people in 1980 to 150 today.
In addition, the authors think that the SSA's assumptions as to life expectancy fall short of reality. They group too many causes into a single group, risk factors and demographics are not isolated as much as they should be.
By the authors' calculations the SSA has underestimated the life of women from 8 to 14 months depending on age and that of men from 12 to 19 months.
This is a very serious issue and another reason for a dispassionate task force to review Social Security in depth.
The authors' work can be found here.
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