Saturday, January 15, 2005

It's good that Bush has made SOCIAL Security a major issue

No, we are not in crisis mode, but it is a problem that must be addressed. If we don't address it now, it will only get worse, much worse.

Today, I'd like to talk about four parts of this issue.

1. Social Security is not the primary problem.
The real issue is our overall economic health today and in the future.
a) The record deficits we are running both in trade and fiscally do not bode well for the future. We cannot keep racking up the debt. Sooner or later it will catch up to us. Retaining Bush's tax cuts do not reduce the deficit; they exacerbate it.
b) We are in a new economic world. Our hegemony is being threatened by at least two upcoming economic powers - China and India. We have yet to figure out what to do. Yes, we were able to overcome the funk caused by the rise of Japan in the '80s, thanks largely to their imploding. Will China and India implode?
c) Nothing is being said, let alone done, about Medicare where the deficits will triple those of Social Security.

2. Risk analysis does not seem to exist in our government.
a) I am in favor of private accounts to a degree. However, while, in the long run, investing in the markets may have paid off (at least for those with hindsight), how would you have liked to be entering your retirement in October 1929 when, if Social Security and private accounts existed, the market went to hell? In the long run we'll all be dead. The question is how do I survive and prosper in the short run of my life. What are the risks involved from various actions?
b) Ownership is a risk. Some owners prosper, some don't. The implication in all this talk about private accounts is that everybody will prosper. I'm not willing to bet on that. Are you?
c) The citizens of some countries have done reasonably well with private accounts. Some have not. For example, the British Pension Commission concluded that 75% of those having private accounts will not have enough to provide "adequate pensions". We need more information about the experiences of other countries. Isn't that one way of measuring risk?
d) Whether or not we come down on the side of private accounts, it is absolutely nuts to take on much, much more debt to convert to private accounts now. I think the risks of so doing are crystal clear. We can't have our cake and eat it too.

3. Does not government have a responsibility to its citizens?
It was not called SOCIAL SECURITY for nothing. Before Social Security many of our elderly lived in abject poverty. Now, no one is becoming rich on their monthly check. But, it is something. And, it is a something that means that many of our elderly don't have to suffer from the ravages of poverty.
Unfortunately, Social Security will become more important in the future as fewer and fewer companies provide the generous retirement benefits of yore.

4. Of course, I have the answers.
a) Remove the cap on salaries subject to the Social Security tax. There is no cap on Medicare. Why Social Security?
b) Index benefits to prices, not wages. (Of course, for new retirees. Not me.)
c) Modify the income tax so that the wealthy pay a high rate on their Social Security benefits.
d) Repeal the Bush tax cuts.

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