James Fallows Does It Again

His article, Success Without Victory, in the current Atlantic Monthly posits a “containment” strategy for the Terrorist War of the 21^st century. He has three basic points.

1. “Less talk about terrorism in general and more about the few real dangers”

When I drive to the Post Office every afternoon, I run the risk of getting involved in an auto accident. Do I think about the risk? No. I know that one day I will die. Do I spend a lot of time talking about it? No. Is the risk of my being murdered here on Martha’s Vineyard greater than the risk of a young kid being murdered in a city slum? No. Do I really think that a Homeland Security rating of red means that I should do something here on Martha’s Vineyard? No. Like every human being, I evaluate risks constantly and act upon my evaluation. Does our government?

If I were driving in freezing rain at night and had no lights, would I worry that my risk of getting into an accident had increased? Yes. If I developed pancreatic cancer, would I worry and probably talk a lot about it (at least initially)? Yes. Would I be more careful walking down a city street in a slum area than I am walking down Main Street in Vineyard Haven? Yes. Like every human being, I would try to protect myself if I felt that the risk of being injured or killed were high. Does our government?

Do more people travel by plane every day than travel by car, or subway, or train? No. Why, then, has the government assumed that terrorists are more likely to attack airplanes than subways? 80% of the Transportation Security Administration’s budget goes to airport screening. 20% goes to every place else where people and goods move. We are spending 80% of our money on 20% of the mobile population, assuming that airline passengers are somehow more important or more vulnerable than all other passengers.

Is it more likely that Casper, Wyoming, or New York City will be the subject of a terrorist attack? Most people would answer “New York City”. Yet, because Congress has mandated that 40% of the Homeland Security money must be divided equally among the states, Wyoming gets $35.50 per capita from Homeland Security, New York gets $5.10. Some places are more dangerous than others; we should allocate our limited funds with regard to the risk and the likely cost of an attack.

2. Know Your Enemy

Know the competition is almost the first rule of business, or sports or almost any of man’s endeavors where competition is involved. We like to talk about freedom and democracy, but the opposition seems more interested in justice.

Fallows uses the Strategic Communications report by the Defense Science Board (DSB) and reports by other think tanks to emphasize that more than guns are needed in the War on Terror. To quote from the DSB report:

“the United States is engaged in a generational and global struggle about ideas, not a war between the West and Islam.”

“Muslims do not “hate our freedom”, but, rather, they hate our policies.”

“Policies will not succeed unless they are communicated to global and domestic audiences in ways that are credible and allow them to make informed, independent judgments.”

“The focus is more on capturing and killing terrorists than attitudinal, political and economic forces that are the underlying source of threats and opportunities in national security.”

“Islam’s crisis must be understood as a contest of ideas and engaged accordingly.”

3. Control Nuclear Weapons

It takes just one nuclear weapon from the Soviet arsenal to do a number on us. There are 30,000 of these weapons still around and they are not exactly under lock and key, although it’s been thirteen years since the demise of the Soviet Union. Clinton spent a little money trying to put these weapons under lock and key; Bush is spending less. Of our $500 billion dollar military budget, about .2% (that’s two-tenths of a percent) is devoted to getting control of something that could very easily destroy the world, let alone give terrorists the capacity to wreak awesome damage to their enemies. Yet, estimates are that $30 billion dollars (or what we spend in six months in Iraq) could give us and the world the right lock and key. Would that be a good investment for a future world?

We managed to ‘contain’ the Soviets for decades without the world blowing up. It seems that Fallows has laid down the outline of a strategy to contain the 21^st century enemies of civilization.