Fighting the Insurgents

“Insurgency in Iraq: A Historical Perspective” is another interesting paper from the Strategic Studies Institute, an arm of the Defense Department. It was written by Ian Beckett, who has written a couple of books on insurgencies and has taught at war colleges here and in England.

He identifies what he thinks are the essentials of successful counterinsurgency campaigns since 1945. They are:

• A recognition of the need for a political rather than a purely military response to insurgency (emphasis mine).
• A coordinated civil and military response.
• Coordination of intelligence.
• Separation of insurgents from the general population.
• Use the minimum necessary minimum force.
• Implement long-term reform to address the grievances that led to support for the insurgency in the first place.

How would you say we have done in Iraq? Looking at the list, I don’t think we’ve done very well.

Another point he makes is about the size of the security forces. In Northern Ireland it is 20 per 1000 inhabitants, in Iraq it’s 6.1 per 1000.

Do Rumsfeld and company read what their underlings are writing?

Yes, the Iraqis have voted. Yes, they are moving towards a form of democracy. But, will the insurgents be defeated? Are we winning the “hearts and minds” of the Iraqis? Was this war worth the costs to us and the Iraqis?

Some feel that Bush is riding high now because of the Iraqi and Afghanistan elections. He may be. But, like Bush’s economic policy(?), what will the costs be tomorrow?