All politics is local

Tip O'Neill, longtime Congressional representative and political powerhouse, spoke these words many years ago with regards to his district, but they really apply almost universally.

Reading the following from today's NY Times Op-Ed by Robert Kaplan reminded me of Tip's words: "And where democracy remains an abstraction, anyone who can provide security and other basic needs - by whatever means - commands respect." Kaplan was speaking of Afghanistan. But he could also have been speaking of southern Lebanon, controlled by Hezbollah, or Palestine, where Hamas is in power. (I don't agree with his opening phrase. People everywhere - in or out of a democracy - want security and their basic needs met.)

People everywhere - no matter what their religion - just want most of their needs to be met without too much trouble on their part. The failure of the central government to meet these needs is why those we call fanatics wield such power. These 'fanatics' provide the common man with what he needs. As a result, people vote for them in a democracy or allow them to rule in other forms of government.

This is a world where capturing hearts and minds is vital, but you can't do it if you don't meet people's basic needs. I think that Abbas and Saniora are decent people, but they have not been able to get the job done; the fanatics are the ones who get the garbage picked up, enable you to go shopping without being shot, make sure you can grow poppies.

And, as an outsider, you can't win hearts and minds if you don't know the people whose hearts and minds you want to place on your side. As Kaplan points out, more than 75% of Afghans live in villages, villages over which the Taliban is reasserting control. Our focus seems to be on the cities, which, in general, are more liberal than the villages and, thus, more amenable to the message of democracy. The people in the villages believe in the tribe and God; democracy is not exactly a hot topic. We need the support of the local leaders. Without that support there can be no form of success.