I wonder

how prevalent organ selling is. I just finished reading the latest Henning Mankell (The Man Who Smiled) published here. The villain is an international entrepreneur who, among his many ventures, sells the organs of those he has murdered. The book, which is part of the Kurt Wallander series, was published in 1994.

Mozart for Muslims

Some Muslims don't take offence with Idomeneo.

Land of the free

You can be here 30 years legally and it means nothing.

S**t on the ceiling

The new Baghdad Police College does have human waste dripping from the ceilings and floors that are not quite flat and a room called the "rain forest" because of the water dripping there. Parsons Corp., the builder of the college as well as thirteen other projects classified as having shoddy work, claims it was the fault of the Iraqi subcontractors. "Not my fault" is the new mantra for $3 billion construction companies.

By the way, Parsons was also a contractor on the Big Dig.

21st Century George Kennan?

It was after the second World War that George Kennan articulated the policy of containment, which, despite many hiccoughs, served this nation well for almost sixty years. But, the times have changed. We have different problems, strengths and opportunities. We need a new over-arching strategy. The Princeton Project on National Security has published a first draft of what that strategy might be. The project has been in the works for three years and has had input from people of all persuasions. The overall leaders are George Schulz and Anthony Lake. The authors of the final report are G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter.

A couple of quotes from the report:

"Still, some of the greatest moments in our history have come from standing for our values and defending them on behalf of others as well as ourselves. We have recognized at those moments, as we should recognize today, that we have to stand with other nations rather than above them, and that we must play by the same rules that they do if we are to achieve common goals. And if we truly believe that our values are universal, then we cannot think that we have a national monopoly on their interpretation or implementation."

"The world we seek will not emerge overnight. Indeed, spreading liberty under law may still be an apt guide for American national security policy at the beginning of the 22nd century. Yet Dean Acheson once remarked that it would be a foolish gardener who tore up his plants each morning to see how much they grew overnight. Instead, the gardener should seed the garden and wait. George Shultz, one of Acheson’s successors, also emphasized the importance of gardening – cultivating relations with other nations on a regular basis and tending to little problems before they become big problems. The process is slow; the results take time."

"And we will recognize that if we seek to lead a world of liberty under law, then we must lead by example, as a bastion of ordered liberty and a champion of liberal order."

A basic assumption of the report is that the world we have today lacks "a single organizing principle for foreign policy like anti-fascism or anti-communism". The basic objectives of the strategy are a secure homeland, a healthy global economy, and a benign international environment. To meet these objectives we need a strategy that is multidimensional, integrates hard and soft power, interest- rather than threat- based, grounded in hope rather than fear, pursued inside-out, and adapted to the information age.

Other points made:

Democracy is not measured solely by elections. We need to strive for a world of mature liberal democracies. To help bring this world about we need a strategy for creating the conditions necessary for a successful liberal democracy. We need governments that are popular, accountable and respectful of people's rights.

The institutions - World Bank, UN, NATO, WTO - that served us well during the Cold War and after are broken and need to be fixed. A new institution - one of mature liberal democracies working for the common good should be established.

Force is sometimes necessary, but should be proportionate and used based on intelligent intelligence.

We need to talk with people, those who are are allies and those who are perceived of as our enemies as long as they disavow terrorism and other forms of civic violence.

The War on Terror has legitimized the terrorists and let them call the shots. They are criminals and should be treated as such.

We need to work with China and other Asian nations to help them achieve legitimate goals and become stakeholders in a world of international order.

Security involves not only combating terrorism and dealing with enemies, for the enemy could be a pandemic. Improving our ability to deal with such a situation is as much a part of the security strategy as other components.

Oil - a nasty word - has to be addressed. We cannot be secure in a world where we and other nations are addicted to oil.

Finally, we can't be secure unless we correct some basic domestic problems - a troubled health system, a broken communications system and a troubled public education system.

It's good, sound, sensible stuff. I urge you to read at least the Executive Summary.

It's a finite world

At some point we will run out of oil. No one really knows when that point will be reached. And the poor quality of oil reserve data compounds the problem of making reliable estimates. Robert Hirsch, of SAIC, has given the matter considerable thought and urges us to start working now on "mitigating" the problem. If we don't, disaster will ensue.

Some of Hirsch's points worth considering are:

• The problem is not an energy crisis; it's liquid fuel for transportation that will be affected when oil peaks.
• Improved fuel efficiency alone will not solve the problem because of increasing demand.
• Implementing mitigation processes will take at least ten years, more likely twenty years, to avoid serious problems.
• Industry cannot do it alone. A government effort on the order of the Manhattan Project or going to the moon is needed.

Making the world safe for democracy

Except that the world does not include the US of A if the latest detainee bill passes in the Senate today. If the government accuses you of being an enemy combatant or of giving material support to our enemies or allies, you're toast even if you're a legal resident here. You can't petition the courts. You'll rot in jail until the war on terror is over (which will happen at the end of the world).

Fear drove the Palmer Raids of WWI which imprisoned 'anarchists'. Fear drove the internment of Japanese-American citizens in WWII. And fear is driving this country's leaders. This current fear is one of not being re-elected, rather than fear that we are not being protected.

Are the Iraqis right?

Will we be in Iraq so long that it will seem we'll be there forever? That's clearly one implication from the latest Congressional Service Report. Most of the 120% increase in the annual costs of the Iraq war since 2003 seems to be going towards "the building of more extensive infrastructure to support troops and equipment in and around Iraq and Afghanistan". The infrastructure is, in fact, additional support bases scattered around the area.

We've now spent almost half a trillion dollars in our two 21st century wars. Perhaps, I should qualify that last statement since the Pentagon has yet to give a full accounting of all war funds.

Is fear the issue?

Once more our government seems to want its version of truth or reality not to be challenged. This time it's NOAA and global warming.

Nature claims that the administration has blocked the release of a report connecting global warming with increased hurricane activity and severity. NOAA claims that it was informed by the Commerce Department that the report should not be released in its current form as it was too technical. The NOAA Administrator's story is a little different - the report was an internal document that could not be released since NOAA had not taken an official position on it.

Wasn't there a saying 'the truth shall set you free'? What are our leaders afraid of?

Get your liver here

China has denied a BBC report that it sells organs taken from executed prisoners. Of course, these organs are donated voluntarily as the prisoner about to be executed is asked whether he wants to atone for his crime by donating his organs to a sick person.

Since China executes at least 1770 people a year - most observers think the number of executions is considerably higher - , they could have a good supply of livers, hearts, etc. It is good business. The average liver transplant goes for almost $100,000. One hospital allegedly did 600 of these in 2005. That's a gross of $60,000,000.

Another group checks in

Is the most recent poll of the Iraqis another example of the spreading of democracy?

From 1 to 6

We have slipped from the first to the sixth position in something called the Global Competitiveness Index, a product of the World Economic Forum, the people who bring you the Davos forum. The countries ahead of us are Switzerland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Singapore. India is 43rd, China 54th.

The index is comprised of a country's standing in nine 'pillars': institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomy, health and primary education, higher education and training, market efficiency, technological readiness, business sophistication and innovation. Each pillar has sub-categories. It seems to me that we are weakest in

• institutions - public trust of politicians, favoritism in decisions of government officials, wastefulness of government spending, efficacy of corporate boards
• infrastructure - quality of transport infrastructure
• macroeconomy - government surplus/deficit, national savings rate, government debt
• higher education and training - quality of educational system, quality of math and science education
• market efficiency - agricultural policy costs
• innovation - availability of scientists and engineers
  

What's $50 billion between friends?

The Army is looking for $50 billion more for FY2008. This would bring its budget to $139 billion. Rumsfeld wants it capped at $114 billion. General Schoonmaker, the head Army honcho, has yet to submit his budget even though it was due August 15. This is highly irregular.

Schoonmaker has said, "There's no sense in us submitting a budget that we can't execute, a broken budget." He wants the money in part to pay to repair equipment that has seen a lot of service in Iraq. He has also said that he can't keep the commitments expected of the Army without a lot more money. Some feel that a fair portion of the extra money wanted is for new weapons, not directly related to the cost of the war.

Making money by doing good

Or at least that's what Merck hopes to do by donating its rotavirus vaccine to Nicaragua so that it can inoculate all its newborns for the next three years. Rotavirus infections cause gastroenteritis and result in the deaths of 600,000 children under the age of 5 annually.

Merck hopes that the results in Nicaragua will entice other countries (there are at least 100 countries that have severe rotavirus problems) to buy its vaccine.

$35,000 per household

That's your share of our net foreign debt. Net foreign debt is the difference between the interest we pay our foreign creditors and the money we make from our foreign investments. For the first time in ninety years, we have a significant net foreign debt; it was $2 1/2 billion as of June.

Right now that 2 1/2 billion is small potatoes in our $13 trillion economy. But, if the trend continues, it will have significant deleterious effects on our economy. More of our money will go abroad, less will stay here.

We need to start now to either reduce our consumption or lower our debt.

It's a dog's life

Hiking, swimming, listening to music, watching television, eating gourmet meals, getting a pedicure, having your nails polished, freshly baked biscuits after your daily activities, massages - all are the perquisites afforded to dogs staying at dog resorts. One resort even has a staff member read a bedtime story over the loudspeaker every night before the dogs lie on their orthopedic mattresses and under their tapestry covers. These services cost the owner $100 and more a night.

Is this a little over the top? People are starving, and some wealthy people spend $100 a night on a dog. Give me a break!

Why can't the dogs stay in a top-notch kennel? Would the owners be less happy if they did?

Gee what a surprise!

Today's NY Times reports that the National Intelligence Estimate, which represents the view of all the US intelligence agencies, concludes that the war in Iraq has exacerbated the terrorist threat.

Back in the winter of 2003 some people were saying this would happen.

A different kind of Chinese cuisine

It's probably not for everyone's taste.

A Moderate Muslim

I've been wondering whether there really are any moderate Muslims. It seems that we only hear from Muslims who go ape over a cartoon or the ramblings of a pope. They don't seem overly concerned with the damage caused by Muslim terrorists around the world. So, I was surprised when I read this month's Seven Questions article in the Foreign Policy web site.

The questions are posed to Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, founder of the multifaith Cordoba Initiative. It would be hard to find a more rational person with a truly international view than Rauf. He opened by actually disparaging all the Muslim hoopla about the pope's talk. I found the following comments wise and something to ponder over:

"The perception in the Muslim world is that the West wants to impose a secularism upon it, which to them is equivalent to the erasure of religion in society. As an American, I know that is not the intent of the United States at all. But that's the perception. The perception in America is that when people say they want an Islamic state, they want something like the Taliban. And that is not true at all."

"Imposing sanctions on Iraq had no impact on Saddam Hussein. It strengthened his authoritarian will on his own people. And it resulted in the people themselves suffering. When you employ sanctions, you’re creating an artificial economic depression. If there are sanctions against Iran, it will strengthen [the Iranians'] resolve.

People basically want a few simple things in life: a decent meal, the ability to clothe themselves, and a roof over their heads. And they want their pride. To do that, you have to engage with people on an equal basis. A year ago, I was involved in discussions between Americans and Iranians. I asked one high-level Iranian official, who I won’t name, what the price would be for Iranians to give up nuclear development. He said three things: 1) A nuclear-free zone in the region. 2) No talk or action about regime change. 3) To help develop the economy. This gentleman sounded very rational."

Straightening out the FDA

The Institute of Medicine has found significant management problems in the division within the agency that reviews new drugs. The FDA itself has had extensive executive turnover; no commissioner in the past ten years has served more than two years. Part of the problem with the review process is due to the fact that more than half the money the FDA spends to review the safety of drugs comes from the companies who create the drugs.

The report has a number of recommendations to improve the process of drug review, two of which are obvious: initially approve a drug for a limited time period (five years) and then check it again; punish companies that do not complete safety studies.

Will Congress do anything with this?

Are results all that matters?

The Reading First component of the No Child Left Behind Act has received virtually universal praise. Yet, the Inspector General of the Education Department has found that the department (in 2002 and 2003 under Rod Paige) violated conflict of interest rules in allocating contracts under the program.

Despite this violation, apparently the kids did not suffer, only some companies did. If yours was one of those companies, you may have a twinge of satisfaction that the truth of a biased selection process has come out. Still, you got screwed by your government.

The new secretary, Margaret Spellings, vows to correct the problem.

Some Good News

Howard Hughes Medical Institute has spent $500,000,000 building a pure reserach laboratory in Virginia. The lab will be modeled on the old Bell Labs, which produced the transistor, and the Cambridge, England Lab, of double helix fame: no expectations of an immediate payoff, no teaching duties, no administrative duties, no grant writing, no pressure to meet quarterly milestones, a collaborative environment of small groups spending their time doing basic research. Sounds idyllic. If it works, look for Nobel Prizes ten - twenty years hence and, more importantly, some giant scientific advances to make this world a better place.

Motivating the dead

Cablevision granted stock options to their former vice chairman in 1999. I use the word "former" to denote that he was dead when the options were granted. Of course, to motivate him to return from the next world, the company backdated the options to a point in time when he walked the earth.

What's wrong with the SEC?

Or state authorities for that matter? I'm talking about the news that the House Energy and Commerce Committee wants Mark Hurd, H-P CEO, to testify about the scandal. Doesn't the committee have more important things to do? Like work on our energy problems?

If laws have been broken by H-P, that's not the job of Energy and Commerce.

Why try to fix it?

The Senate - and the biotech industry - has apparently given up on Project BioShield. The Senate, with the urging of the biotech industry, will be introducing a bill asking for a $1 billion fund for vaccines and treatments for anthrax, smallpox and pandemic flu. Unlike Project BioShield, companies would receive money as they show progress - and, I suspect, more companies would have their hand in the trough.

Didion on Cheney

I've never really spent much time reading about our Vice President, but, since I have a need to finish most articles (except those on fine arts) in the NY Review of Books, I pored through an article on him by Joan Didion. Here is how she begins:

"It was in some ways predictable that the central player in the system of willed errors and reversals in the Bush administration would turn out to be its vice-president, Richard B. Cheney. Here was a man with considerable practice in the reversal of his own errors. He was never a star. No one ever called him a natural. He reached public life with every reason to believe that he would continue to both court failure and overcome it, take the lemons he seemed determined to pick for himself and make the lemonade, then spill it, let someone else clean up."

Essentially, Cheney, in Didion's view, settles on a particular view of the world and does not change. For example, an exchange with Powell wherein Powell talks about the unanticipated and unintended consequences of war leads Cheney to conclude that these consequences are not the issue, Saddam is. "Conclude" is probably not the correct word to use as it implies a process of reasoning, which seems to be totally absent from Cheney's participation in a discussion.

"The One Percent Doctrine" quotes Cheney, "(going to war) is not about our analysis or finding a preponderance of the evidence". Again, the decision has been made, it cannot be changed no matter whether it is correct or not.

Cheney appears to have some odd views. Watergate was not a criminal conspiracy; it was a power struggle between the legislature and executive. The mistake in planning for the Iraq war was in getting there too soon, as if this negated the need for a post-war plan. The mistakes of Iran-Contra were Reagan's signing the Boland Amendment and waiving executive privilege for the Congressional investigations.

Cheney also appears to be very skilled in leaving no trail. The passing of executive orders classifying the papers of both the president and vice-president (the only vp so 'honored') and granting the vice president the same power as the president to classify information certainly help cover his tracks. Strangely, his office refuses to tell the editors of the Federal Directory who works in the vp's office. When he goes home to Wyoming, his staff will not confirm that he is there although Air Force 2 is.

Where's my laptop?

Congress asked seventeen federal agencies to let it know how many, if any, of its personal computers containing private information are missing. Thus far, only ten of the seventeen have responded, one of whom was the Commerce Department. Since 2001 they have lost 1100 computers, they think. They don't really know. It may be lots more.

A long pregnancy

After five years, scientists have finally freed the bones of a human fossil that was locked in sandstone. The fossil was found in Ethopia, as was "Lucy" in 1974. The most recent fossil is the same species as Lucy and, according to Professor Spoor, gives scientists "a detailed insight into how our distant relatives grew up and behaved".

Here's how Lucy's baby looked.

Science Idol

The Union of Concerned Scientists is sponsoring a contest to pick the funniest cartoon about the current position of serious science. Here is the one I like best.
What's yours? Vote here. There is a larger size of this and other cartoons on the site.

Another view of Haditha

This month's Atlantic includes "The Road to Haditha" by Bing West. The article gives some background about the troops accused of the massacre and urges the reader to resist the temptation to damn the troops.

However, West is not as patient with the high command. He blasts Bremer & Co. for failing to use the recognized tactics of counterinsurgency, the unwillingness to ask for more troops, the swift redployment of troops from Haditha to Fallujah. He calls for the imposition of martial law, placing the police under the control of the Iraqi army, the willingness to admit mistakes and an attempt to correct them.

Now it's the Interior Department

Last week the Inspector General of the Interior Department, Earl Devaney, lambasted the department for ethical lapses, "Simply stated, short of a crime, anything goes at the highest levels of the Department of the Interior." Devaney went on to accuse the department of foregoing billions of dollars in off-shore oil leases by the simple screw-up(?) of not realizing that oil might go above $34 a barrel. He accused auditors of losing important files and then trying to cover the loss up.

This week it was announced that four Interior Department auditors charge the department with stopping their investigations into oil companies' fraudulent schemes to reduce their royalty payments to the government. The auditors have each brought suit under the False Claims Act, which awards the auditors a share of any money recovered.

It's possible that the auditors are in it for the money. Also, Devaney's charges against some auditors taint the reputation of all Interior auditors. However, it does not appear that these particular auditors are simply money grubbing hacks. They've been around; they have been with the department as auditors for over twenty years. They've received a number of awards for their efforts in recovering money owed the government. And the fact that four of them are pursuing four separate cases does not argue that they are disgruntled hacks looking to make a buck. In fact, in one case the state of Louisiana came to the same conclusions about Kerr-McGee as did one of the auditors and was able to get $600,000 out of the company. In most of the cases, the auditor's boss at first gave the go-ahead to pursue the investigation and later ordered the investigation stopped.

Since the change of administrations, the Interior Department auditors have collected about $45,000,000 a year. In the decade before the change, they collected $176,000,000 annually. Additionally, the use of subpoenas to obtain documents has been discontinued. So, one important tool in obtaining evidence of fraud has been taken away.

Some day I will add up all the wasted money that I've written about in these posts. I'm not sure whether Excel can support the number.

Intel Dump does it again

Read J.D. Henderson's view of our security situation. It's right on, as are most of the comments.

Don't read this book

Rajiv Chandrasekaran, the author of "Imperial Life in the Emerald City", was on "Fresh Air" today. If what he says about the Coalition Provisional Authority and the early days of the "post-war" period is anywhere near true, his book has to be one of the most depressing books you'll ever read about our performance in Iraq.

A little side money

Why does someone with grown kids take a consulting job for the state that pays $36,000 a year? If you're an employee-benefits consultant, you take the job because you can also earn a little side money from health insurance companies, a little being, perhaps, twice as much as the salary from the consulting job. Apparently, paying bonuses to 'consultants' who swing business your way is standard practice for companies such as UnitedHealth and Aetna.

There is a case being tried in Ohio where the consultant was specifically told that the client was aware of the practice of consultants being paid for bringing business to companies and did not want the consultant being influenced by the insurance companies. It made no difference to the consultant. His argument is that this is standard practice. Aetna has codified these payments. They pay .75% of the clients' total premiums if the consultant brings Aetna 90% of his Aetna clients; the rate goes to 1.25% for hitting 100%. The temptation is strong. But what about a little thing known as ethics?

Bureaucratic crap and duelling lobbyists

"We will rally the great promise of American science and innovation to confront the greatest danger of our time," so said the President in response to the anthrax scare of 2001. Unfortunately, the rally has yet to occur.

First, the government can't figure out what they wish to use to confront the dangers of bioterrorism. There has been a war between the lobbyists for Emergent BioSolutions, a company that makes an existing anthrax vaccine that seems to have bad side effects, and VaxGen, a company with an 'updated' version of the same vaccine. VaxGen was originally chosen to manufacture the vaccine, but production has been slowed by both production difficulties and the lobbying of Emergent BioSolutions.

You might ask, "Why are companies I never heard of working on protecting the nation from an anthrax attack?" Why would Merck, Pfizer etal get involved in a situation where they get paid only upon delivery, the number of doses to be ordered is unknown, the companies would not be immune from lawsuits should a 'patient' die from the shots, which, by the way, need not go through the regular FDA vetting process as the situation is so acute.

Not only are we no safer today from an anthrax attack and have no idea when or whether a suitable vaccine will be available. We've also invested $5.6 billion in this fiasco.

An Encouraging Word

The leader of the largest tribe in Anbar province says most of the tribes there will unite in fighting the insurgents and other who "kill for no reason". He has, he says, 30,000 young armed men willing to take up arms.

Housing Numbers

Here are some depressing numbers from the Comstock Fund re the housing market:

Ø 32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000

Ø 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down.

Ø 15.2% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.

Ø 10% of all home owners have no equity in their homes

Ø $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.

Ø 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan balances larger than their initial loan.

Ø Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally, monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the mortgage.

Ø According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53% over a year ago.

Ø The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59% higher than a year earlier.

Ø New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.

Ø The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.

Ø The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.

Ø The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC, in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

Ø The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it never was above 220.

Ø According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.

Ø Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since 1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East, West and Mid-West.

Ø Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

Who said this?

"He (George W. Bush) does not appear to rethink things based on new data.
For him there are no new data, only determination.
Mr. Bush has muddied what his team stands for."

No, it's not the Democrats. It's Peggy Noonan, one of Reagan's speechwriters. Wonders never cease!

Trying to improve the peer review process

The journal Nature is now allowing scientists to review proposed papers online. True, the reviewers will be invited by Nature and the online reviews will not replace the traditional peer review process, but is is one step in trying to combat the recent rash of published papers that had to be recalled because of the writer's dishonesty.

A crusade to eliminate corruption?

Paul Wolfowitz has started to stir things up at the World Bank by suspending aid to some countries whose leaders may be taking some of the aid money for themselves. Obviously, no one is for corruption expect those benefiting from it, and the common man seldom does. Yet, there seems to be a trace of the crusader with regard to his anti-corruption efforts, the same crusading zeal that wanted to bring democracy to Iraq. Some of his critics accuse him of making anti-corruption efforts his primary task and lowering the priority of alleviating poverty.

Who knows what the real story is? But, it does seem the first negative cloud in Wolfowotz's tenure at the bank.

The Right Troops in the Right Places

That's the title of an op-ed piece by Seth Moulton, an ex-Army officer who has served two rotations in Iraq, in today's NY Times. One of his rotations was with the American commander in charge of training the Iraqi security forces. So, he has direct experience of what was happening on the ground over there.

Yes, he has the basic criticism of not enough troops, but he goes beyond that to argue that we need the right troops in the right places, i.e. embedded with and advising the Iraqis. He claims that 12-man teams of Green Berets have replaced entire battalions of conventional forces in some cities.

"Yet despite the success of the advisers, the Army and Marine Corps still have a habit of sending their least capable troops to fill these positions. Many teams have trouble getting essential supplies like weapons and ammunition, even as the Army finds the resources to man speed traps on its ever-growing bases. We can't win this war from the Burger Kings and rec centers of our largest bases, nor we can afford the thousands of non-combatant troops needed to support them."

You can gather from the above that Moulton does not think too highly of our strategy, which is driven by the pressure to meet dates rather than get the job done. "Standing up Iraqi troops is not enough; they must be well-trained." Further, he points out that consolidating our troops in giant bases is exactly the opposite of what couterinsurgency experts proscribe.

Basically, Moulton is asking a basic question in most endeavors - be it war or business - where resources are scarce. Are we using our resources wisely? His answer is, "No".

Find of a lifetime?

Anthropologists are atwitter over the discovery of a slab of stone that may contain writings from the Olmec, predecessors of the Mayan, Incas and Aztecs. It may be the oldest writing discovered in America. If true, the discovery would change most of the theories as to the rise of cultures in North America.

Next they'll dig a moat and build a drawbridge

The plan now is to encircle Bagdhad with trenches.

Remember "The Bionic Man"?

It was a television program in the '70s that featured Lee Majors with reconstructed limbs. Now it is becoming a reality.

The bad people at IAEA

Once more, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has questioned conclusions reached by our leaders. This time it's with regard to Iran.

The House Intelligence Committee issued a report in August about Iran as a strategic threat. The IAEA feels that the report contains "erroneous, misleading and unsubstantiated information" plus parts of the report are "outrageous and dishonest".

Will our Congress act on the basis of the report? Will they be made aware of IAEA's concern?

A built-in antipathy to international treaties?

In 2001 President Bush said that he intended to sign the Stockholm Convention on Peristent Organic Pollutants, which seeks to eliminate the use of toxic chemicals world-wide. The convention has been signed by 127 countries thus far. The US has not, largely through failures of our beloved Congress. Since we are not yet a signatory to the convention, we are free to export poison and have managed to export almost 30,000,000 pounds between 2001 and 2003. The hang-up appears to be centered around the process of adding new chemicals to the initial list of twelve. Apparently we don't want our EPA involved in the process of deciding whether to add toxic chemicals.

We have also failed to sign the Rotterdam Convention which attempts to control trade in toxic chemicals by requiring exporters to inform countries when the exporter's shipment includes certain chemicals. This convention has been signed by 110 countries.

It seems to me that both conventions make a lot of sense and living up to them should make the world a little better. Why can't our leaders act on this instead of worrying about and consuming time and our money discussing inanities?

More on China's repression

In today's Wall Street Journal the lawyers for Chen Guangcheng give their side of the story: Chen's trial took only two hours. Other than Chen's brothers, the public was not allowed. His lawyers, appointed by the government, had never met him nor read the file. Their defense consisted in agreeing with the prosecution.

They will appeal on the assumption that "the legal system can...deliver a fair verdict and remedy wrongs".

The new rage: Building Fences

For the past several months the anti-immigration crowd has been agitating for more fences on our Southwestern border. Saudi Arabia has joined the legion of fence builders - that's physical fences I'm talking about. The Saudis are worried about Iraqis crossing the border between the two countries and doing serious mischief. So, they have decided to spend billions to construct an electrified fence along its 500+ mile border with Iraq.

Now it's the courts

China is really tightening up and enforcing censorship more and more. Today they announced the establishment of "official spokesmen" for the courts. Not only are trials held behind closed doors. Now, only the official word about these trials will be publicized as leakers will be punished.

Changes in Regional School Regulations

This post is about a local issue that will also affect other regional school districts in Massachusetts.

The Mass. Department of Education is proposing changes to the regulations (603 CNR 41.00) governing the budgets of regional school districts in the Commonwealth. These changes will negatively affect the Martha’s Vineyard Regional High School and the Up-Island Regional School District.

The basic change would establish the “statutory wealth” formula – rather than the regional agreement - as the primary method of allocating costs among the members of a district. The regional agreement can be used only if all members of the district agree; otherwise, the “statutory wealth” formula is to be used, provided at least two-thirds of the members vote to approve the cost allocations as calculated by this formula.

Tyranny of the Minority
Requiring the use of the regional agreement to allocate costs only if each and every member of a district agrees will result in situations where a single member can effectively reject the cost allocations for all members. The number of voters in that town, the share of the costs that town bears, the number of students from that town – all have no bearing on whether the costs will be allocated according to the long-standing agreements that have been carefully devised and refined over the years. The Department of Education is concerned about the tyranny of the majority. The proposed regulations can result in a tyranny of the minority.

Complex, Time Consuming and Expensive
In any particular year some members of a district are likely to benefit from use of the wealth formula, while others would prefer that the regional agreement be used. The school administration would have to prepare two assessment calculations, which, in turn, requires each town to vote twice on the school budget at Town Meeting. Further, the choice of the wealth formula or regional agreement may change each year for each town, which means that the costs and time of dealing with two alternative assessment formulas will be come an annual burden.

While it is possible that a single member can negate the terms of the regional agreement, it is not certain that the required two-thirds of the membership will approve the cost allocations as determined by the wealth formula. In the event that the cost allocations under either the wealth formula or the regional agreement are not approved by the requisite number of members, the Department of Education is proposing a relatively complex procedure to reconsider and eventually approve the cost allocations. At a minimum, this procedure would require another Town Meeting, resulting in more time and money spent and, possibly, having ripple effects on other town financial issues, such as setting the tax rate.

An Imperfect Science
The wealth formula is based on enrollment, property values and median income of a town. Property value does not include any exempt properties, such as churches or federal lands. Median income is based on the address entered on tax returns, which address may be that of the town in which you live or the town in which you receive your mail or the town where your accountant has his office. To quote someone quite knowledgeable in the matter, “Unfortunately it's an imperfect science, with no way of perfecting it.”

Hence, instead of the clear terms and definitions of the regional agreements, cost allocations under the wealth formula are based on property values that may not include all of the property in a particular town and median incomes that cannot be properly allocated to a residence.

The proposed regulations will weaken regional school districts to such a degree that many districts will dissolve.

The Board of Education has asked for comments on the proposed changes. I urge you to send your comments to the Board at 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148-5023 and to our Senator, Robert O’Leary, and Representative, Eric Turkington, at the State House, Boston, MA 02133. The Board will be voting on these changes on October 24, 2006.

Health Insurance Is Not The Answer To Long Life

That's what Harvard's School of Public Health concluded in a study published in PLos Medicine this week. They studied death rates from 1982 - 2001 in a number of counties across the country. They divided their population into eight groups based on race, county, population density, homicide rate and income.

They found marked differences in life expectancy. The life expectancy of Asian-American women living in Bergen County, NJ is 91; that for Native-American men in South Dakota is 58. These women are living more than half as long as these men. The Americans with the best health lived three to four years longer than those thought of as long-lived, such as Japanese and Icelanders. Yet, those Americans in the groups with poorer health had a life expectancy associated with a developing country.

The diseases that affect the lower health groups are ones you would expect: chronic diseases with high risk factors, such as alcohol, tobacco, obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and glucose. The study concluded that it is these factors rather than the presence or absence of health insurance that seemed to be primary reasons for the gaps in life expectancy. To improve our health we should focus more money and effort on preventing and treating these diseases. For example, only a half of those with high blood pressure and a third of those with high cholesterol are being treated.

Significantly, the study found that a great degree of the difference in mortality occurred not among children and elderly (who are the focus of much of our medical care) but among young and middle-aged adults.

Another door closing

Over the past year China has arrested journalists, blocked web sites, fired editors of government publications, arrested so-called dissidents. Now they've announced that all foreign news reports, photographs and charts must enter China through the state-operated New China News Agency, which means not only more censorship but also more money to the News Agency as they will get a share of the money paid to foreign news services.

The only service on the Vineyard

Five years on, the Unitarian Society was the only church to have a 9/11 memorial service today on Martha's Vineyard. How quickly we forget.

Over the past few days, the media has been filled with articles about the current state of our security and the "what were you doing then" articles. Some contend that little has changed, others assert that we live in a different world today. I lament how far we have come from the feelings of love and compassion that were so common in those first days after the attack.

Often when someone close to us dies or is severely damaged, we come together to memorialize our common past and vow to make it better. Habits being very strong and we being mere mortals, we seldom succeed in keeping our vows beyond those first weeks and months. While the foibles of mankind and our personal weaknesses often result in broken vows, on a personal level we usually do not actively work against the keeping of those vows and attempt to destroy those common bonds that had been re-established. Yet, I feel that is exactly what our government has done.

It has deliberately told our allies and those wanting to be our allies to 'fuck off, we know what is best for the world and for you'. Sadly, our government did not consider what was best for its citizens. It has deliberately rejected whatever love, admiration and concern the rest of the world had for us in mid-September 2001.

Not only have our leaders pissed off most of the world, but they have demonstrated a level of incompetence and arrogance that are normally only seen on the playground. I met a lot of dodos in my career and I'm still meeting them, although not as frequently. I don't think I've ever seen the level of incompetence to which our leaders and their acolytes have sunk.

These words from Arthur Waskow, a sometime controversial rabbi, which the minister asked me to read in today's service provide some consolation and point the way to a better world:

We are the generation that stands between the fires:
behind us the flame and smoke
that rose from Auschwitz and from Hiroshima;
before us the nightmare of a Flood of Fire,
the flame and smoke that consume all Earth.

It is our task to make from fire not an all-consuming blaze
but the light in which we see each other fully.

All of us different,
all of us bearing One Spark.

We light these fires to see more clearly
that the Earth and all who live as part of it
are not for burning.

We light these fires to see more clearly
the rainbow in our many-colored faces.

Blessed is the One within the many.
Blessed are the Many who make one.

I thought we had management talent in the Pentagon

It surely doesn't look that way in this summary of some GAO reports about the business capabilities of DOD. Basically, the report says that DOD does not know what it's doing in many areas and relies on inadequate procedures and hope to solve some long running problems. Here are some of the programs that have cost us money and time.

• Logistics Modernization Program - the system could not properly recognize revenue or bill customers. General ledger balances were not converted properly when the system went live. Excess items were ordered and shipped. Prices could not be set properly.
• Navy Enterprise Resource Planning - They wasted $1 billion on four pilot programs that basically duplicated each other.
• Defense Travel System - System testing was inadequate to ensure that everything worked. The legacy system is still being used in those places where FTS has been installed.
• Naval Tactical Command Support System - The Navy still has not justified the $1.1 billion investment nor is it even trying to measure the return on some of the system components.
• TC-AIMS II - The Army has not economically justified its investment in this system. The system is intended to be used by all branches of the military; the Air Force and Marine Corps say they will not use it.

In 2001 DOD started a program to enter the 21st century. After spending four years and $318,000,000, it decided to begin again with a new team in 2005. Will they be any more successful with this one?

More money wasted on the War on Drugs

In six years we managed to spend $1.2 billion on the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign. Did the ad campaign work? Not according to a multiyear study of the campaign. It didn't stop kids from trying drugs, even though they could recall the ads and understood their message.

I suspect that $1.2 billion over six years is small change in our war on drugs, which seems to be our longest war to date. When will we accept the real world and try to manage, rather than exterminate, the problem? Extermination is impossible, management may not be.

Paying Deserters

Another indication of the poor information management in DOD is its inability to promptly recognize when people desert and then to continue to pay them. In a very limited GAO study, almost $900,000 of our money was paid to deserters in less than a year. Then, when the problem was brought to DOD's attention, its collection efforts have resulted in only 9% of the money being collected in a year.

Head Count

The new military is one where Special Ops has become much more important. More money is being spent on it. More people are being recruited for it. The problem, according to a GAO study, is that Pentagon management does not know how many people are needed for training and planning, two rather crucial components of any program, be it military or not. The reports produced by Special Ops Command do not provide the information you need to determine whether they have enough personnel for today and the future. Not knowing this places constraints on how well you can plan and manage, to say the least.

Isn't Rumsfeld supposed to be a management guru?

Who do you believe?

The Energy Bulletin has published a cautionary article on the Chevron oil find in the Gulf of Mexico announced to great fanfare this week. The article points out that it is unlikely that the discovery will increase our oil reserves the 50% that's been mentioned in press articles. The uncommon depth (three miles) to reach the field leads the author to believe that there can be very little certainty as to the potential reserves; in fact, there is likely much more natural gas than oil found at such depths.

The author attributes the timing and content of the announcement to the upcoming consideration by the Senate of legislation to allow more offshore drilling. Bolstering this contention is the situation last year when the Mexican parliament was considering expanding drilling by its state oil company, Pemex. Just before the vote, a discovery with the potential of 10 billion barrels was announced. That estimate was revised this year to 43 million barrels, or a drop of 99.57%.

The skepticism which is implied by the title of this post is due to the limited information available about the backers of this site; there is none. The author of the article is identified as Randy Kirk who works for an invesrment firm in San Francisco. True, had there been names and background of the operators of the site, it could all be a charade. But, it would allow the reader to do some checking.

Bad Blood

The Red Cross has been fined $4,200,000 for violating blood safety laws. This is not the first time. Thus far, they have been fined almost $10,000,000 since 2003. Is this the Red Cross you know?

They didn't want the phone's ringing to disturb anyone

Here's a novel place to store your cell phone.

Gaza? Where's that?

The media has been quiet recently about the situation in Gaza. According to a UN official, it's a disaster there. Sanctions have played a big part in creating the disaster.

A new law. The same problems

Apparently, Bush's proposal to prevent defendants from seeing the evidence against them has met with disapproval by the chief legal officers of the Army, Navy and Marines. And, detailed reading of the proposed 'tribunal' bill reveals that CIA personnel will still be able to torture prisoners.

Are these hallmarks of an "effective democracy" as describes in our National Strategy for Combating Counterterrorism?

Crying Wolf: Part 3

Foreign Affairs has convened a "round table" to discuss John Mueller's article about the lack of a terrorist attack in the US since 9/11. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised that in general the panelists support Mueller and my interpretation of the article.

James Fallows summarizes his opinion of the terrorist threat as follows: "Great nations face risks. That's life." Jessica Stern disputes some of Mueller's points, but points out that "while the US approach to the war on terrorism has been principally military, the enemy has been fighting a war of ideas". And who do you think is winning that war of ideas? Fawaz Gerges laments our not understanding "the internal political and ideological dynamics of the Muslim world". Had we done so, "it would have second thoughts about militarizing the war on terror". Paul Pillar bemoans our lack of rational thinking as we "place far more emphasis on deaths due to terrorism than in drownings in bathtubs or the like".

The second part of the roundtable will be held on 9/11/2006.

They should spend more time thinking about the business

In this article from Slate, Michelle Leder, of footnoted.org, points out the latest perquisite of the big time CEO: protection from losing money when selling your house. The documents may call it different things - "protection against loss", "loss protection", "price protection" - but it's still the old money grabbing stealing from the stockholders.

Some of the companies Leder mentions in this article are media darlings, such as eBay and Nike. In addition to protecting a former CEO from loss on the sale of his house, Nike also paid $578,000 to renovate the house, including the provision of a wine cellar that can hold 2,000 bottles.

Here's how you address problems

China has 'detained' another human rights activist. Hu Jia, a fighter for people with Aids, was taken from his house by twenty policemen. Last month China 'detained' Chen Guangcheng, who fought against forced sterilization, and they also detained his lawyers. In August they also 'detained' a lawyer for villagers who accused local officials of stealing their land; in the past the lawyer had also represented members of Falun Gong.

China is entering the 21st century all right. The question is whether it is on the side of freedom or repression.

More on Afghanistan

This BBC article briefly describes the 'peackeeping' taking place in Afghanistan. It seems like a series of knock-down, drag-out battles in a very tough environment. The article concludes with:

Victory will depend, in that cliched phrase, on winning the "hearts and minds" of ordinary Afghan peasants.

But those are the same Afghan peasants to whom we're saying "don't grow opium anymore, even though it's your main source of income".

When will we start taking Afghanistan seriously?

I'm not quite sure what to make of this

but you may find this site, ostensibly written by an Iranian student, interesting.

Not a bad document

Except that the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism is not as grounded in reality as I would like and, of course, being a blogger and ex-businessman, I'm well-qualified to evaluate the document. But, the last time I checked I still lived in an "effective democracy" (to quote the strategy), so I guess it's okay if I let you know what I think of our national strategy.

Let me preface my remarks with the statement that my wife feels I'm a pessimist and, in her opinion, this blog amply demonstrates that. I'm not going to debate that issue now. However, I do have to acknowledge some of my beliefs. To wit, the world has always been a dangerous place. Bad people are created every day; they may not be born bad, but circumstances result in their becoming bad. Sooner or later bad things happen to most people.

The fundamental problem with the strategy is, as I've said above, its refusal to accept reality. For example, the creators of the strategy write that "effective democracies (are) the long term antidote to the ideology of terrorism". Well, what about the terrorist attacks in Spain, England, the United States, attacks perpetrated by natives? Or, the arrest of suspected terrorists in many countries in Europe as well as here?

Their definition of effective democracy is filled with platitudes (human rights, freedom, justice, rule of law), some of which our effective democracy violates. Yet, they ignore the daily needs - food, a decent job, security, education, opportunity to realize one's potential, etc. - necessary for a reasonably satisfying life. Some of these needs are satisfied for some people in some less than effective democracies as well as other forms of government.

Like most documents put out by those who need to 'spin' reality, this document tries to spin at least three basic facts: neither the war in Iraq nor the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have had anything to do with the rise in terrorism; the war in Iraq was started as part of the war on terror.

Some further spin with regard to our 'successes':
Afghanistan is now a full partner in the war on terror. Yet, the Taliban seems to grow stronger daily as fewer and fewer parts of the country are controlled by Kabul.
The Department of Homeland Security actually enhances our counterterrorism capabilities.
and our 'challenges':
Pakistan, which has just signed an agreement with the Taliban and may be the residence of bin Laden, is not mentioned as a country that 'harbors terrorists at home'.
The ongoing fight for freedom in Iraq has been twisted by terrorist propaganda as a rallying cry.

The document speaks of the Islamist terrorists, who, naturally, are fringe Muslims. I wonder when I will hear a mainstream Muslim loudly and actively condemn the actions of these fringe Muslims.

A couple of pages are devoted to our attempts to keep WMD out of terrorist's hands. I would think it obvious by now that terrorists don't need WMD and can wreak destruction even with non-weapons such as airplanes.

There is a lot of talk about our partners and international cooperation. That's just what it is - talk. We have not been as isolated or as arrogant with regard to international opinion since I've been alive.

This 'strategy' sounds more like a campaign document than a serious attempt at combating terrorism.

Come Back. Everything is Forgiven

Pakistan is really cozying up to terrorists. First, there was the deal Musharraf signed with the Taliban on his Northern border. Now his press secretary says bin Laden will not be arrested if he is ever found as long as he behaves like a peaceful citizen.

More pollution in China

Now it's lead poisoning that is damaging the Chinese.

Sunrise at Makonikey September 5, 2006

The Meaning of Words

Israel is not expanding two West Bank settlements. They are "thickening" them, as they'll be creating new buildings within existing built-up areas. Thus, they are conforming to the Bush's administration wish that Israel not expand its West Bank settlements.

Also, despite the cease-fire, Israel still has an air and sea blockade around Lebanon. Of course, this is also okay as Israel believes that it is "at a cessation of hostilities, not a cease-fire."

Crying Wolf: Part 2

A group of researchers affiliated with Syracuse University has published an intriguing study of criminal investigations and prosecutions since 9/11. The Justice Department dismisses this study as it does not count the number of plots disrupted.

Unsurprisingly, the number of prosecutions for terrorism escalated after 9/11. Before 2001 there were an average of 14 annually. In 2001 there were 57, in 2002 355. But then the numbers started to fall; for the first eight months of this year there have been 19 prosecutions. Does this decline say something about scare tactics?

Prosecutors do not have to prosecute all the cases brought to them by investigators. Before 2001, they prosecuted about half of the cases. In 2001 they prosecuted almost 60%. By 2006 they were declining to prosecute 90% of the cases.

The report has a lot of numbers and charts. Let me give you some:

• Before 9/11 the median prison sentence given to those convicted was 41 months. By 2006 the term had dropped to 20 days.
• The feds have received 6472 referrals and have convicted 1329 thus far.
• The Social Security Administration is the agency, after the FBI and immigration, that has the third highest number of convictions.
• By far the largest number of cases are referred to the Virginia prosecutors, although the district does not generate the largest number of cases by itself.

Is the drum being beaten for GWOT based on reality? Or, are there political motives involved?

The perils of trying to do it on the cheap

Now come reports that NATO does not have enough troops on the ground in Afghanistan. We hear every few days of more Taliban being killed, but, somehow, there is always another battle being fought with the Taliban. One starts remembering the body counts of Vietnam, which proved nothing. Is this the same? It's starting to sound like it.

Will the war history of Afghanistan be repeated, wherein no one has been able to defeat the natives no matter how positive matters seem?

Crying Wolf

In the current issue of Foreign Affairs John Mueller, of Ohio State, raises the question of why the U.S. has not seen a terrorist attack on our soil despite the many warnings of an attack being imminent. "If al Qaeda operatives are as determined and inventive as assumed, they should be here by now. If they are not yet here, they must not be trying very hard or must be far less dedicated, diabolical, and competent than the common image would suggest." Mueller does not dispute that we may eventually be the subject of a terrorist attack, but wonders whether all the brouhaha, arrests, money spent have been justified by reality. (I disagree with Mueller in that I am convinced that there will be a least one, and very likely more, terrorist attacks.)

In response to the argument that, five years after 9/11, we are much better prepared to prevent such an attack, Mueller refers to the five years before 9/11 when there were no attacks despite little emphasis on preventing one. Mueller asks does the lack of attacks mean that there are no terrorists here (a situation I find hard to believe, vide Timothy McVeigh) or that few are able to strike us from abroad.

Mueller likens this period in American history to both WWII (when we were told of the threats presented by the Japanese Americans) and the early Cold War (when McCarthy was rooting out Communists). Then and now our leaders seem to delight in predicting another attack and attempting to frighten us.

An interesting calculation made by Mueller: "Even if there were a 9/11-scale attack every three months for the next five years, the likelihood that an individual American would number among the dead would be one in 5000."

Life is dangerous. None of us knows when the axe will follow, but fall it will. Do we live as though it will fall tomorrow? Or do we live confident that we will see tomorrow's sun, but aware that we may not.

Whither innovation?

In the most recent study by the OECD, the U.S. comes in seventh when comparing the percent of GDP spent on R&D. Part of this disturbing showing is due to the cuts in government spending for basic research. In the 1960s the government spent two-thirds of each R&D dollar the nation spent; today it spends thirty cents. It's government money that is used to take large risks and sometimes it is necessary to take large risks. Further aggravating the situation is the move to outsource R&D; 40% of our high-tech research funded by industry is now performed in Asia and it's likely that that share will increase.

Reading about this latest OECD study comes a few days after reading of the effect of the budget problems on both NIH and FDA in Friday's Wall Street Journal. The NIH simply cannot fund as many scientist-initiated projects as they did previously. And, often, these projects have the biggest payoffs. On the other hand, the FDA is dependent for more than half of its drug review budget, i.e., more than half the money the FDA spends to review the safety of drugs comes from the companies who create the drugs. Could there possibly be some bias in the process?

Could we not use the $200,000,000+ spent on abstinence programs on trying to create a better world?

Resigning can pay off

Take Douglas A. Pertz. He was named CEO of Harman Industries in May. His base annual salary was $850,000. Unfortunately, Pertz's background in paper and salt apparently was not a match for the consumer electronics business. He resigned on August 21.

When I resigned, I did not receive a severance package. Did you? Like so many public companies Harman paid Pertz $3,800,000+ in severance. Did Pertz earn it? During his reign, Harman's stock went from $101 to $82.

What does 'summary' mean?

According to Merriam-Webster it means 'covering the main points succinctly'. Under that definition the Executive Summary in the Pentagon's latest report to Congress on progress in Iraq does not qualify as a summary. I read the Executive Summary in today's NY Times and could not figure out why the media reports sounded so negative since the only negatives in the Summary referred primarily to the ongoing violence.

So, I went to the Pentagon's site to see what it said about the report and to get a link to it that I could post here. Unfortunately, all I could find was the press release about the report's issuance; it was even more positive than the Executive Summary.

Here are some interesting excerpts from the report itself:

Security issues (e.g., the attempted kidnapping of a deputy minister and threats to ministry personnel who work with Embassy teams) have made some ministers reluctant to have U.S. personnel visit them. This reluctance hampers coordination between the Coalitionand some ministry personnel. Internal politics (e.g., political party affiliation) is also an obstacle to progress in some ministries.

Some Iraqi ministers tend to focus on nearterm performance, rather than on long-term capacity building. A lack of effective procedures within the ministries, such as policy development, procurement, and budgeting, was endemic to the Iraqi government underSaddam Hussein, and three years is not enough time to reverse decades of organizational incapacity. This situation should improve with time.

Lack of proper “tools,” such as information technology, finance systems, and planning capabilities, inhibit the governing of complex issues. The result is that Iraqi planning, budgeting, and execution processes are less than fully effective. IRMO is currently procuring and developing these tools, but it will take time—years rather than months—before Government of Iraq staff is able to use these tools fully and to manage the ministries to full effectiveness.

However, the borders are porous, and eliminating the transfer of illegal material and foreign fighters into Iraq is a formidable challenge.

Corruption in the ministries has further hampered their capabilities. Experienced or talented employees are often purged and replaced with party elements/cronies as a result of a spoils system. Many of Iraq’s political factions tend to view government ministries and their associated budgets as sources of power, patronage, and funding for their parties. Ministers without strong party ties often face significant pressure from the political factions, and sometimes have little control over the politically appointed and connected people serving under them. Still entrenched in the culture of the former regime, some ministry personnel are reluctant to exercise independent initiative or to take any bold action to address Iraq’s problems of corruption.

Estimates of unemployment in Iraq vary widely. The UN World Food Program’s 2005 estimate is 13.4%; other estimates are as high as 50%–60%. As of July 2006, the Government of Iraq Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT) estimated that unemployment was 18% and underemployment was 34%. The COSIT estimates were corroborated by a 2005 United States Agency for International Development (USAID) survey and recent nationwide polling.

Using data collected in 2004, the UN World Food Program estimates that 15.4% of the surveyed population in Iraq lacks adequate food. Including both severe and moderate forms, about 25.9% of the Iraqi children examined were stunted in their physical growth, a symptom of chronic malnutrition.

High inflation is threatening Iraq’s overall macroeconomic stability. Inflation continues to be volatile, with spikes generally caused by commodity shortages and seasonal variations. The annual inflation rate from June 2005 to June 2006 was 52.5%, according to COSIT. The CBI needs to take steps to control inflation.Polling data indicate that the Iraqi public’s perceptions of the household financial situation are mixed, although public perceptions are generally more pessimistic than they were a year ago.

The Bayji refinery in northern Iraq is a critical element in Iraq’s national oil infrastructure. Built in the 1980s, the Bayji refinery is Iraq’s largest and newest refinery. This refinery typifies many of the challenges Iraq faces as it attempts to modernize its aging infrastructure and increase its oil exports. Bayji has a nominal production capacity of 310,000 barrels per day. However, since May 2006, the refinery has not produced more than 170,000 barrels per day, and recent production has been as low as 7,500 barrels per day. Four primary factors have limited production at the Bayji refinery: maintenance issues with key components in the refinery, an inefficient refining process, an unreliable flow of crude oil into the refinery, and security threats to personnel.

Maintaining the refinery’s outdated equipment is a challenge. Two of the refinery’s three plants have been shut down since May 2006 due to mechanical breakdowns, scheduled maintenance, power outages, and fires. One power outage damaged the refinery’s US$20 million hydrocracker, a critical piece of equipment used to convert heavy fuel oil to usable products.

A second factor limiting production at Bayji is inefficiency in its refining process. For every two barrels of crude oil brought into the refinery, Bayji produces about one barrel of usable product, for an efficiency rate of about 50%; modern refineries can have efficiencies of 90% or higher. The result of the inefficient refining process is a large amount of heavy fuel oil (HFO) byproduct. Bayji does not have adequate facilities to refine further, store, or dispose of this byproduct; the excess HFO thus interferes with production and storage of usable products.

Iraq averaged 14 hours of power per day this quarter, an improvement of 3 hours per day over the previous quarter. Baghdad averaged 8 hours of power per day, twice what it had averaged six months earlier.

New projects have “added capacity to provide an estimated 4.2 million people with access to potable water—an increase of 1.2 million people since the May 2006 report—but direct measurement of water actually delivered to Iraqis is not available.”

Although the increases in the official prices have reduced the economic incentive to smuggle fuel, smuggling fuel for resale inside and outside the country remains a serious issue.

Overall, Iraqi casualties increased by 51% compared to the previous quarter.

Although the overall number of attacks increased in all categories, the proportion of those attacks directed against civilians increased substantially. Nationally, in April 2006, civilians were the target of 11% of attacks; this increased to 15% in June 2006.

As with the IPS, the National Police payroll is significantly larger than its authorized endstrength. There are currently more than 29,000 National Police on the MOI payroll, but it is unknown how many of these have been trained and equipped. Absenteeism among National Police units generally follows the same pattern as in the military. Leave policies and immature personnel management policies account for 30%–40% of personnel not present for duty. Absenteeism in the IPS is difficult to quantify because shift schedules preclude PTTs from ascertaining which police officers are absent and which are simply offduty.

The DBE payroll is also larger than its authorized end-strength, with 25,832 DBE personnel on the MOI payroll. It is currently unknown how many untrained DBE personnel are on the rolls and how many of the trained and equipped border personnel have left the MOI. As with the other personnel issues, an effective personnel management system will help resolve these reporting and accountability deficiencies.

A lack of effective leadership and policies to stem corruption through accountability for actions, equipment, and personnel have enabled the theft of pay and equipment, unlawful detentions, and reported cases of abduction and torture or execution of Sunnis.

In the Iraqi Army, approximately 15% attrition is the norm for initial training. When a unit is fully trained and employed in combat operations, some soldiers find that they do not like the particular location or they cannot cope with dangers of the counter-insurgency. Absent-without-leave rates are typically about 1%–4% for most Iraqi Army divisions,although deployments to combat sometimes cause absentee spikes of 5%–8%. However,soldiers in units in this final stage of development are less likely to abandon the service. As with any organization, the units with strong, competent leaders tend to have higher present-for-duty rates than those with weak leaders. However, there is currently no judicial punishment system within the Iraqi Army. Therefore, Iraqi Army commanders have little legal leverage to compel their soldiers to combat, and soldiers and police can quit with impunity.

This does not sound anywhere near as positive as the Executive Summary. In fact, it's downright frightening.