Sunday, September 17, 2006

Housing Numbers

Here are some depressing numbers from the Comstock Fund re the housing market:

Ø 32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000

Ø 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down.

Ø 15.2% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.

Ø 10% of all home owners have no equity in their homes

Ø $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.

Ø 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan balances larger than their initial loan.

Ø Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally, monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the mortgage.

Ø According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53% over a year ago.

Ø The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59% higher than a year earlier.

Ø New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.

Ø The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.

Ø The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.

Ø The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC, in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

Ø The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it never was above 220.

Ø According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.

Ø Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since 1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East, West and Mid-West.

Ø Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

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