Crying Wolf

In the current issue of Foreign Affairs John Mueller, of Ohio State, raises the question of why the U.S. has not seen a terrorist attack on our soil despite the many warnings of an attack being imminent. "If al Qaeda operatives are as determined and inventive as assumed, they should be here by now. If they are not yet here, they must not be trying very hard or must be far less dedicated, diabolical, and competent than the common image would suggest." Mueller does not dispute that we may eventually be the subject of a terrorist attack, but wonders whether all the brouhaha, arrests, money spent have been justified by reality. (I disagree with Mueller in that I am convinced that there will be a least one, and very likely more, terrorist attacks.)

In response to the argument that, five years after 9/11, we are much better prepared to prevent such an attack, Mueller refers to the five years before 9/11 when there were no attacks despite little emphasis on preventing one. Mueller asks does the lack of attacks mean that there are no terrorists here (a situation I find hard to believe, vide Timothy McVeigh) or that few are able to strike us from abroad.

Mueller likens this period in American history to both WWII (when we were told of the threats presented by the Japanese Americans) and the early Cold War (when McCarthy was rooting out Communists). Then and now our leaders seem to delight in predicting another attack and attempting to frighten us.

An interesting calculation made by Mueller: "Even if there were a 9/11-scale attack every three months for the next five years, the likelihood that an individual American would number among the dead would be one in 5000."

Life is dangerous. None of us knows when the axe will follow, but fall it will. Do we live as though it will fall tomorrow? Or do we live confident that we will see tomorrow's sun, but aware that we may not.