Thursday, September 28, 2006

It's a finite world

At some point we will run out of oil. No one really knows when that point will be reached. And the poor quality of oil reserve data compounds the problem of making reliable estimates. Robert Hirsch, of SAIC, has given the matter considerable thought and urges us to start working now on "mitigating" the problem. If we don't, disaster will ensue.

Some of Hirsch's points worth considering are:
  • The problem is not an energy crisis; it's liquid fuel for transportation that will be affected when oil peaks.
  • Improved fuel efficiency alone will not solve the problem because of increasing demand.
  • Implementing mitigation processes will take at least ten years, more likely twenty years, to avoid serious problems.
  • Industry cannot do it alone. A government effort on the order of the Manhattan Project or going to the moon is needed.

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