Anthony Cordesman has a lengthy analysis on the status of the Afghanistan War. In many ways he is relying on his judgment, connections and experience as he begins his piece by lamenting the dearth of information put out by the parties involved, noting that the situation has gotten worse as conditions have worsened.
The little information that is available does not look at a key issue - the interaction between the battles in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Cordesman believes that the war is being waged by Pashtun Muslims in both countries.
In Cordesman's view the Taliban is fighting a different war than is the West. The West wants to win the military battles, the Taliban want to expand their influence within Afghanistan both politically and economically. And it looks like the Taliban is winning. The fact that NATO needs more troops and equipment and that there really is not much unity within the NATO forces does not help the situation.
And the old bugbear separating words and actions makes the job much tougher. Many countries have not paid their pledge, others have taken eons to cough it up and, when all is said and done, 40% of the aid money is spent outside Afghanistan.
The report has a number of maps, most of which show just how little control the central government have over the rest of the country.
All in all, the report is a downer as I suspect that, despite the availability of really good information, Cordesman has highlighted a very difficult situation.
1 comment:
The purpose of the war was to install a pipeline and establish bases to protect it. Mission accomplished.
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