Bucking the Odds

What are the odds of our 'winning' in Afghanistan now that we have a new strategy - hearts and minds? Two academics from the University of North Texas don't think the odds are very good; at best, it's a 50-50 proposition. They stu

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died sixty-six similar conflicts in the last century, i.e. conflicts where a foreign power tries to help another country defeat rebels. Details of the study are available here.

While a shift to a hearts-and-minds strategy resulted in a 'win' two-thirds of the time in post-WWII conflicts, such a shift being made after eight years of conflict resulted in zero wins. Couple this with the fact that no foreign nation has succeeded long term in Afghanistan. So, what do you place your bets on?