Food, that is. Yet, we have a problem today and, if Lester Brown is right, a much bigger problem tomorrow. He's talking about food as possibly being the cause of future wars. Brown bases some of his argument on the fact that food prices, as measured by the U.N. Food Price Index, are at an all-time high and he doesn't see them coming down soon, if ever, unless we take action.
Fundamentally, it's a supply and demand issue. More people and the difficulty of increasing production to the necessary levels form the basis of his argument. We all know that the population is increasing, some see a population of 9 billion in 2050. Furthermore, as more countries move out of the development phase, they want to move up the food chain. Hence, the demand issue. The supply issue has a few more parts which can be summarized by the energy situation, climate change, wells running dry and mismanagement of soils.
Ethanol is one of the factors affecting supply as more and more land is being devoted to the raising of crops which will be converted to fuel. In 2000 16,000,000 tons of grain were converted to ethanol, today it's over 126,000,000 tons. Total grain supply has not increased a similar 8 times in that time period.
Scientists have a rule of thumb with regards to climate and production of grain: "for every 1 degree Celsius above the growing season optimum, farmers can expect a 10% decline in grain yields". We are seeing only the beginnings of climate change today. What will tomorrow bring?
More than half of the world lives in areas where the water table is falling. What happens when there is no water for crops?
There are now two new dust bowls, one in China, the other in central Africa. It's estimated that one-third of the world's farmland may wind up the same way due to overplowing and bad management of the land.
Tensions are also exacerbated by the actions of countries facing a lower supply of grain. Many of them have signed deals with good producing countries whereby these countries with poor supply can export the producer's grains. This bothers some people, to say the least.
It's not looking good.
Fundamentally, it's a supply and demand issue. More people and the difficulty of increasing production to the necessary levels form the basis of his argument. We all know that the population is increasing, some see a population of 9 billion in 2050. Furthermore, as more countries move out of the development phase, they want to move up the food chain. Hence, the demand issue. The supply issue has a few more parts which can be summarized by the energy situation, climate change, wells running dry and mismanagement of soils.
Ethanol is one of the factors affecting supply as more and more land is being devoted to the raising of crops which will be converted to fuel. In 2000 16,000,000 tons of grain were converted to ethanol, today it's over 126,000,000 tons. Total grain supply has not increased a similar 8 times in that time period.
Scientists have a rule of thumb with regards to climate and production of grain: "for every 1 degree Celsius above the growing season optimum, farmers can expect a 10% decline in grain yields". We are seeing only the beginnings of climate change today. What will tomorrow bring?
More than half of the world lives in areas where the water table is falling. What happens when there is no water for crops?
There are now two new dust bowls, one in China, the other in central Africa. It's estimated that one-third of the world's farmland may wind up the same way due to overplowing and bad management of the land.
Tensions are also exacerbated by the actions of countries facing a lower supply of grain. Many of them have signed deals with good producing countries whereby these countries with poor supply can export the producer's grains. This bothers some people, to say the least.
It's not looking good.
1 comment:
It's not looking good at all, and it was all prophesied years ago. Of course, no-one listened. Climate change has been a known factor for over thirty years. Science was predicting it back in the eighties in Europe. What have we done about it? Nothing. We're still polluting the atmosphere more than ever before and the fatcats pay the politicians to block environmental legislation for fear their profits may take a hit. Short term greed that will inevitably lead to long term catastrophe.
I only read part of Brown's essay. Frankly, it's all so depressingly familiar. He saying nothing that's not already well documented, and like those before him, he'll be ignored.
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