The World Is Full of Risk

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But Homeland Security doesn't pay enough attention to risk. According to a couple of academics who seem to have strong credentials for their position, DHS "focuses all or almost all of its analyses on contemplation of the consequences of a terrorist attack while substantially, and surprisingly, ignoring the equally important probability-component of risk assessment as well as the key issue of risk reduction. Overall, it seems, security concerns that happen to rise to the top of the agenda are serviced without much in the way of full evaluation -- security trumps economics, as one insider puts it -- and such key issues as acceptable risk are rarely discussed while extravagant worst case scenario thinking dominates, and frequently savagely distorts, the discussion".  

We've spent a lot of money on homeland security; $580 billion on DHS alone since 2001. Who knows how much has been spent at the state and local levels and by private organizations? Is such spending a good investment? The authors don't think so, as it would take a heck of a lot of successful terrorists attacks to  justify the magnitude of the investment. We'd likely get a better return for our money by investing it in other areas.

Interestingly the National Academy of Sciences has just published a report on the risk analysis situation at DHS. Their conclusion: " DHS doesn't know what it is doing, having paid little effective attention to features of the risk problem that are fundamental".

It's only money.