A Contrarian View of China

John Pomfret calls China his second home. He has been visiting it since 1980. He was bureau chief of the Washington Post. His wife is Chinese. He thinks that the world has a much rosier view of China and its future than the data warrants.

In Pomfret's view China will not become #1 in the world any time soon for four reasons:

1. Its one child per family program works against it. Their birth rate of 1.8 children per family is lower than that needed for simple replacement. True, China has become healthier; the average life span has gone from 35 to 73 in sixty years. But, today there are 100,000,000 over age 60; this will grow to 334,000,000 by 2050. As is true here, there will be fewer and fewer working age people to support the retired. But, we have Social Security although it has to be propped up soon, some still have pensions. In China, the elderly have to rely on their savings.
2. The economy is too reliant on non-Chinese forces. 60% of the exports are owned by non-Chinese entities. Plus, when you look at the economy on a per capita basis, China is way down the list.
3. The environment in China is terrible. Sixteen of the twenty most polluted cities are in China. Seventy percent of the rivers and lakes are polluted. Half of the population lacks drinking water. Factories have closed because of a lack of water.
4. Their form of government quashes the freedom and innovation that are necessary for a successful 21st economy.

He makes some good points. Let's think about them.