Mike Kimel and Alan Blinder Agree

Just last week I wrote about a book, "Presidential Performance", being written by Mike Kimel. Kimel's data seemed to show that the average Joe is better off under Democrats, at least since WWII. Blinder takes similar data from a book, "Unequal Democracy" by Larry Bartels. The results are the same. Measure GNP under Democrats and you get an annual increase of 2.78%, under Republicans 1.64%. Measure growth in income for poor people under Democrats and the number is 2.64%, as shown in the table below. Under Republicans it's .43%.

What do you think the numbers will be under Obama or McCain?

Dream Along With Me

"There have been some recent signs that our economy is beginning to improve," Bush said in his weekly radio address.

Read comments on the GDP "increase" by Alan Abelson, who refers to GDP as "Gross Deceptive Pap".

Congress Shall Have Power to Declare War

We all know that is what the Constitution says. We also know that Congress has let the President declare war whenever and wherever he wishes. Now he's trying it once more. Bush has submitted a resolution to Congress which asks it to “acknowledge again and explicitly that this nation remains engaged in an armed conflict with Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and associated organizations, who have already proclaimed themselves at war with us and who are dedicated to the slaughter of Americans.” Since Congress has never declared war against the organizations, named and unnamed, how can they affirm that we are engaged in war now?

We need a Congress that exercises its responsibility and a president who knows his.

A response to Bush and the EU?

Medvedev has asked for more OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) monitors in Georgia and also "looks forward to maintaining a constructive dialogue with EU, other international organisations, as well as individual countries".

An interesting turn of events.

Another Example of Intelligent Religionists

I've written previously about some of the weird - nay, anti-human - practices and beliefs of fanatic Muslims. Today, it is the Jews' turn. Soon, it will be Christians other than the nuts from the Westboro Baptist Church. There is just something about really believing in something that cannot be proven that makes people say and do strange things.

The ultra-Orthodox seem to be growing in power in Israel, where matters pertaining to marriage, divorce and conversions are the exclusive province of the rabbinical court system. In the last twenty or so years hundreds of thousands have have immigrated to Israel. Just about all claim to be Jews, but some find it hard to prove this and the government has had a program to help these people become Jews.

Love is also one of the reasons why some people move to a country. That was why Yael moved from Denmark fifteen years ago. When she and her lover decided to get married, Yael went through a year-long process of becoming a Jew. They married, had kids, raised those kids as Jews and life went on. That is, until her husband wanted a divorce. He filed his claim with the rabbis and the case was eventually heard.

Many of the issues of interest to the rabbis concerned sex, such as did the couple have sex during and after menstruation. But, the rabbis were not being prurient, as just about all religions have this great concern about the matter. Anyway, the divorce was a simple matter. Yael and her husband were never married since she was never a Jew; I guess they determined her non-Jewishness by her answers to their questions. Since she was not a Jew, her kids could not be.

I'm sure this all makes sense to true believers. It makes no sense to me and some Israelis have started talking about having secular system to review matters of marriage and divorce.

Some Basics for a President

It's self-evident that no one person can effectively run a large organization. You need good people helping you. It is equally obvious that the bromide "failing to plan is planning to fail" is true.

One criterion for a president is the ability to recognize talented people who can help run this country and then convince them to take the job. The selection of vice presidential candidates by McCain and Obama demonstrates quite clearly that McCain does not have this skill. Palin was picked so that McCain can continue to pander to his base. Biden was picked to shore up weaknesses Obama has. The lack of experience of Obama was a strong card for McCain, but he blew it. Like most good managers, Obama recognized his primary weakness and found someone to counter this problem.

Think back a year. Would you have picked Obama to get the nomination? Wasn't McCain a shoo-in? Well, Obama not only had a winning plan, he found the people to execute it. McCain's plan, whatever it was, came close to failure. He got the nomination largely because of the poor quality of his opposition. Obama had a much tougher battle against stronger opposition.

Yet, it is still likely, Lord forbid, that McCain will win. If so, I have to seriously consider whether to stay here. We've just about survived eight years of one incompetent. What would this country be like with four more years?

Another Amputee Athlete

I wonder whether the editor of the sports section of the NY Times is an amputee or knows one. Today the section highlights Kelly Bruno who is a ball girl at The Open. This is the third leg amputee that has been featured in a year or so.

Ms Bruno is a world class Paralympic athlete and also a participant in the International Triathlon Union World Championships.

Kerry Redux

I've been hearing that Kerry gave the speech of his life this week. I haven't been following the convention so I missed it. Here is one excerpt as reported in the Blue Voice:

This election is a chance for America to tell the merchants of fear and division: you don’t decide who loves this country; you don’t decide who is a patriot; you don’t decide whose service counts and whose doesn’t.

Four years ago I said, and I say it again tonight, that the flag doesn’t belong to any ideology. It doesn’t belong to any political party. It is an enduring symbol of our nation, and it belongs to all the American people. After all, patriotism is not love of power or some cheap trick to win votes; patriotism is love of country.

Years ago when we protested a war, people would weigh in against us saying, “My country right or wrong.” Our answer? Absolutely, my country right or wrong. When right, keep it right. When wrong, make it right. Sometimes loving your country demands you must tell the truth to power.

Would that he had spoken this way four years ago.

Karzai has some support

Karzai claimed last week that 90 civilians were killed as collateral damage in an air strike led by U.S. forces. We disagreed. Now, the UN agrees with him.

Friend of My Friend

Ahmad Chalabi now says that we "are against the human rights outlined in the(Iraqi) constitution". His comment was made as a result of the arrest of one of his deputies by the American forces. The deputy, Ali Faisal al Lami,was arrested in connection with the bombing in June of the Sadr City Advisory Council and numerous other activities which we claim are run by the Iranian-backed militias.

I wonder what Mr. Cheney has to say about this.

It's Not in the Genes

The World Health Organization (WHO) has published a devastating report about the social determinants of health. Even cancer strikes the poor and lower income people worse - 72% of deaths from cancer are from this pool of people. One of the primary determinants is wealth, another is education level as these two graphs show. For a clearer view go to the WHO site.

Closing on First Place

Right now, scientists are recording the second smallest expanse of ice-covered sea since they began using satellites for the job. It is possible that by September a new record may be set.

In 1980 there were 7.8 million sq. km. of ice in the sea, in 2007 that area was down to 4.13. Here's a chart showing the past few years.

Real Life Transformers?

Harvard scientists have been able to convert one type of fully developed adult cell into another type cell and within a living mouse. The scientists were able to convert a common cell in the pancreas to one that produced insulin. If this really works, this would likely eliminate the need for stem cells and their accompanying baggage.

Racking up the numbers

The FDIC reports that there are now 117 banks on their watch list. This is the highest number in years. Banks that are covered by the system saw their profits drop by almost 86% from the same quarter last year. Things are not getting better as the FDIC may have to borrow money from the Treasury.

The New Census Data

Here is one man's reaction:

Despite modest improvements in overall median income and health insurance coverage, the new Census data are disquieting. Though 2007 was the sixth (and likely the final) year of an economic expansion, 4.4 million more Americans were poor, the median income of non-elderly households was $1,100 lower, and nearly 6 million more Americans were uninsured than in 2001 — even though the economy was in recession that year.

This is unprecedented. Never before on record has poverty been higher and median income for working-age households lower at the end of a multi-year economic expansion than at the beginning. The new data add to the mounting evidence that the gains from the 2001-2007 expansion were concentrated among high-income Americans.

Compared to 2006, overall median household income edged up 1.3 percent in 2007. Median income for “working age” households — those headed by someone under 65 — remained statistically unchanged, however, and the number (although not the percentage) of Americans living in poverty increased by 816,000 people to 37.3 million.

In addition, the number of children living in poverty jumped by 500,000 to 13.3 million, and the child poverty rate climbed from 17.4 percent in 2006 to 18.0 percent in 2007. There was some welcome news on child health insurance – the number of children lacking health insurance declined in 2007, but it remained 400,000 above the number of children who lacked insurance three years earlier, in 2004.

The data also show that employer-based health coverage — and private health coverage in general — continued to erode in 2007, and that all of the improvement in health care coverage in 2007 was due to more Americans obtaining coverage through government health insurance programs, principally Medicare and Medicaid.

Propaganda Posters from North Korea

Go here for more.

Protecting the Children

A rural school district in Texas has decided to arm its staff, teachers, janitors, etc. I guess they feel that their lock-down procedures and cameras do not offer enough protection.

It appears to be the first school district in the country to have its staff carry weapons and concealed weapons at that.

Escalation?

To what real end is Mr. Cheney visiting Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan next week? Russia is no where near an innocent in all this, but who does it serve to have the war-mongering vice president visit these countries now? I don't think it serves this country.

Bizarre!

A 8-year-old girl is seeking to be divorced from a man in his 50s. Where do you suppose this is happening? Who is weirder - the 'husband' or the father? The girl is clearly a lot more mature than both of these idiots.

A Finite World

While Russia is a king of the energy world today, it still will eventually run out of oil. Some are predicting that this will happen within twenty years if current production rates continue. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is the source of the accompanying chart which shows that half of today’s top producing Russian oil fields were more than 60% depleted two years ago. Thus far this year production is down .5%. Despite this, Russia is not really very active in seeking new fields. In 1990 they drilled 17,300,000 feet of new wells; in 2007 they drilled only 3,900,000 feet.

The country seems to be on an attitude of living today and ignoring tomorrow. Hmm, does that remind you of another country?

Another View of Russia

While we are concerned about a Russian military resurgence, Marshall Goldman, who has spent a lifetime studying the country, has other concerns:

Russia today has become more powerful relative to Europe than it has been since Napoleon, a situation that is all but certain to make the Europeans less willing than the United States to challenge Russian policies. Energy may accomplish for the Russians what the Soviet and Russian armies by themselves could not.

Brooks Backed Biden

I was surprised that David Brooks, the conservative NY Times columnist, had good words to say about Joe Biden, who may be our next Vice President - he's honest, loyal, experienced and of the working class. Biden has been around for a long time and has committed more than his share of gaffes, the most serious and notorious being the plagiarization of a speech by Neil Kinnock, a British politician. I'm sure we'll hear of all his mistakes, especially plagiary, over the next 2 1/2 months. But I also hope that we'll hear of some of his good ideas.

A Unique Institution

The word 'unique' is certainly one of the most misused words in the English language. Merriam-Webster defines it as being: the only one, sole, unequaled, unusual.

But the Webb Institute of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering is truly unique. It offers just one academic option, a double major in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering. It is also the only full-tuition scholarship private undergraduate program of its kind in the country. It has about 90 students, taught by 10 professors and 0 teaching assistants. Although there are intercollegiate sports, a campus pub and a campus yacht club, education is the primary focus, perhaps ten or more hours a day are spent studying. Clearly, it is not for we average Joes, but for the right person it must be heaven.

Words Without Meaning

I'm indebted to RJ of Sparrow Chat for pointing me to George Monbiot's essay on our missile defense system, although defense is not quite the right word as the system seems built to defend against my missiles and not those of a serious enemy.

Oops, I made a mistake. The system will not protect us against missiles; our tests have involved trying to shoot down only one missile. We have not been very successful in that, we've only knocked down two of the last five we've aimed at in tests. And the word 'test' is probably not quite right, either. We know the missile's target and track and, if decoys are involved, we know all about them as well. Oh, I forgot to tell you that we are trying to knock down only ballistic missiles, cruise misiles are not allowed.

Will McCain or Obama or Congress put a stop to this boondoggle that has cost us billions of dollars? I'm not very hopeful for they would be labeled as traitors.

A New Day?

Gee, Krugman has a column in which he doesn't take Obama to the woodshed. It's the first I've seen.

Wait a Few Months

What happens when the 100,000+ Sons of Iraq are faced with a choice - turn in their weapons or be arrested? That's one scenario the Iraqi government is contemplating as of November 1.

Most people are convinced that the bribery of Sunni insurgents by the U.S. has been a very important factor in the decline of violence. Yet, the pace of the Iraqi government in hiring the 'former' insurgents is slow. Further, there are reports that Maliki agreed to hire only 20% of the 'former' insurgents. Many of those hired to date are Shia.

One Iraqi military leader says, "We cannot stand them, and detained many of them recently". A member of parliament echoes that thought, we cannot "justify paying monthly salaries to people on the grounds that they are ex-insurgents."

Is this the calm before the storm?

Spreading the Pain

In the past few days the Taliban has attacked U.S., French, Canadian and Polish troops. Is this a deliberate strategy to get more nations to pull out of Afghanistan?

Check It Out

Here is an excerpt from a work in progress. Presidential Performance is a book by Mike Kimel, an economist, that will, Kimel says, evaluate the performance of presidents from Eisenhower to Bush II on forty issues that are of importance to us. He has some preliminary data on economics which may indicate a bias in favor of Democrats. But you should take a look.

"Set thine house in order."

That quote from the bible distills a conversation between Bill Moyers and Andrew Bacevich. Bacevich has just written “The Limits of Power”, which I just bought from Amazon and I hope many of you also buy it. Here are some quotes from the Moyers interview:

BILL MOYERS: So, this is a version of "Physician, heal thyself?"

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, yes, "Physician, heal thyself," and you begin healing yourself by looking at yourself in the mirror and seeing yourself as you really are.

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ANDREW BACEVICH: We want to be able to pump gas into our cars regardless of how big they may happen to be, in order to be able to drive wherever we want to be able to drive. And we want to be able to do these things without having to think about whether or not the book's balanced at the end of the month, or the end of the fiscal year. And therefore, we want this unending line of credit.

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BILL MOYERS: You say, "U.S. troops in battle dress and body armor, whom Americans profess to admire and support, pay the price for the nation's refusal to confront our domestic dysfunction." What are we not confronting?

ANDREW BACEVICH: The most obvious, the blindingly obviously question, is energy. It's oil. I think historians a hundred years from now will puzzle over how it could be that the United States of America, the most powerful nation in the world, as far back as the early 1970s, came to recognize that dependence on foreign oil was a problem, posed a threat, comprised our freedom of action.

How every President from Richard Nixon down to the present one, President Bush, declared, "We're gonna fix this problem." None of them did.

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BILL MOYERS: And you use this metaphor that is intriguing. American policy makers, quote, "have been engaged in a de facto Ponzi scheme, intended to extend indefinitely, the American line of credit." What's going on that resembles a Ponzi scheme?

ANDREW BACEVICH: This continuing tendency to borrow and to assume that the bills are never going to come due. I testified before a House committee six weeks ago now, on the future of U.S grand strategy. I was struck by the questions coming from members that showed an awareness, a sensitivity, and a deep concern, about some of the issues that I tried to raise in the book.

"How are we gonna pay the bills? How are we gonna pay for the commitment of entitlements that is going to increase year by year for the next couple of decades, especially as baby boomers retire?" Nobody has answers to those questions. So, I was pleased that these members of Congress understood the problem. I was absolutely taken aback when they said, "Professor, what can we do about this?" And their candid admission that they didn't have any answers, that they were perplexed, that this problem of learning to live within our means seemed to have no politically plausible solution.

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BILL MOYERS: What do you value most?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, I think the clearest statement of what I value is found in the preamble to the Constitution. There is nothing in the preamble to the Constitution which defines the purpose of the United States of America as remaking the world in our image, which I view as a fool's errand. There is nothing in the preamble of the Constitution that ever imagined that we would embark upon an effort, as President Bush has defined it, to transform the Greater Middle East. This region of the world that incorporates something in order of 1.4 billion people.

I believe that the framers of the Constitution were primarily concerned with focusing on the way we live here, the way we order our affairs. To try to ensure that as individuals, we can have an opportunity to pursue our, perhaps, differing definitions of freedom, but also so that, as a community, we could live together in some kind of harmony. And that future generations would also be able to share in those same opportunities.

The big problem, it seems to me, with the current crisis in American foreign policy, is that unless we do change our ways, the likelihood that our children, our grandchildren, the next generation is going to enjoy the opportunities that we've had, is very slight, because we're squandering our power. We are squandering our wealth. In many respects, to the extent that we persist in our imperial delusions, we're also going to squander our freedom because imperial policies, which end up enhancing the authority of the imperial president, also end up providing imperial presidents with an opportunity to compromise freedom even here at home. And we've seen that since 9/11.

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ANDREW BACEVICH: But, doesn't really mean that Bill Clinton before him, or George Herbert Walker Bush before him, or Ronald Reagan before him, were all that much better. Because they all have seen military power as our strong suit. They all have worked under the assumption that through the projection of power, or the threat to employ power, that we can fix the world. Fix the world in order to sustain this dysfunctional way of life that we have back here.

ANDREW BACEVICH: "Be careful." "Don't plunge ahead." Recognize that force has utility, but that utility is actually quite limited. Recognize that when we go to war, almost inevitably, there are going to be unanticipated consequences. And they're not going to be happy ones.

Above all, recognize that, when you go to war, it's unlikely there's a neat tidy solution. It's far more likely that the bill that the nation is going to pay in lives and in dollars is going to be a monumental one. My problem with the generals is that, with certain exceptions, one could name as General Shinseki, with certain exceptions-

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ANDREW BACEVICH: We look to the President, to the next President. You know, we know that the current President's a failure and a disappoint - we look to the next President to fix things. And, of course, as long as we have this expectation that the next President is going to fix things then, of course, that lifts all responsibility from me to fix things.

One of the real problems with the imperial presidency, I think, is that it has hollowed out our politics. And, in many respects, has made our democracy a false one. We're going through the motions of a democratic political system. But the fabric of democracy, I think, really has worn very thin.

ANDREW BACEVICH: There are many people who say they support the troops, and they really mean it. But when it comes, really, down to understanding what does it mean to support the troops? It needs to mean more than putting a sticker on the back of your car.

I don't think we actually support the troops. We the people. What we the people do is we contract out the business of national security to approximately 0.5 percent of the population. About a million and a half people that are on active duty.

And then we really turn away. We don't want to look when they go back for two or three or four or five combat tours. That's not supporting the troops. That's an abdication of civic responsibility. And I do think it - there's something fundamentally immoral about that.

Again, as I tried to say, I think the global war on terror, as a framework of thinking about policy, is deeply defective. But if one believes in the global war on terror, then why isn't the country actually supporting it? In a meaningful substantive sense?

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ANDREW BACEVICH: How did we come to be a nation in which we really thought that we could transform the greater Middle East with our army?

What have been the costs that have been imposed on this country? Hundreds of billions of dollars. Some projections, two to three trillion dollars. Where is that money coming from? How else could it have been spent? For what? Who bears the burden?

Who died? Who suffered loss? Who's in hospitals? Who's suffering from PTSD? And was it worth it? Now, there will be plenty of people who are going to say, "Absolutely, it was worth it. We overthrew this dictator." But I hope and pray that there will be many others who will make the argument that it wasn't worth it.

It was a fundamental mistake. It never should have been undertaking. And we're never going to do this kind of thing again. And that might be the moment when we look ourselves in the mirror. And we see what we have become. And perhaps undertake an effort to make those changes in the American way of life that will enable us to preserve for future generations that which we value most about the American way of life.

Getting Hotter in Afghanistan

The Taliban mounted one of their largest attacks of the war this week. They attacked one of our bases and also a French camp. These attacks represent a change in tactics from "now you see us, now you don't" to an all-out attack on our fortifications. True, the attack on the U.S. base was by suicide bombers, but they were backed up by another 30 troops. And, this was the third attack on the base in the past week.

Afghanistan has started to take more media space than Iraq. It will only increase.

What are our presidential, senatorial and congressional candidates saying about this?

Gorbachev Has an Opinion

He suggests that we look at Russia's position in the world at the start of the 21st century in an intelligent way. He is convinced that Saakashvili was catered to by the West and that the West is not treating Russia with the respect it now deserves. He advises us to try to understand the Caucasus, rather than make faulty assumptions.

He makes some good points about our changing world. We should listen.

We Should Have Ignored The Sweater

Here, via Angry Bear and Brad DeLong, is an excerpt from a speech by Jimmy Carter in 1977. His numbers are not right, but the basic idea is one we should have followed.

The oil and natural gas we rely on for 75 percent of our energy are running out. In spite of increased effort, domestic production has been dropping steadily at about six percent a year. Imports have doubled in the last five years. Our nation's independence of economic and political action is becoming increasingly constrained. Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980s the world will be demanding more oil that it can produce. The world now uses about 60 million barrels of oil a day and demand increases each year about 5 percent. This means that just to stay even we need the production of a new Texas every year, an Alaskan North Slope every nine months, or a new Saudi Arabia every three years. Obviously, this cannot continue ...

We can't substantially increase our domestic production, so we would need to import twice as much oil as we do now. Supplies will be uncertain. The cost will keep going up. Six years ago, we paid $3.7 billion for imported oil. Last year we spent $37 billion -- nearly ten times as much -- and this year we may spend over $45 billion. Unless we act, we will spend more than $550 billion for imported oil by 1985 -- more than $2,500 a year for every man, woman, and child in America. Along with that money we will continue losing American jobs and becoming increasingly vulnerable to supply interruptions ...

We will feel mounting pressure to plunder the environment. We will have a crash program to build more nuclear plants, strip-mine and burn more coal, and drill more offshore wells than we will need if we begin to conserve now. Inflation will soar, production will go down, people will lose their jobs. Intense competition will build up among nations and among the different regions within our own country. If we fail to act soon, we will face an economic, social and political crisis that will threaten our free institutions. But we still have another choice. We can begin to prepare right now. We can decide to act while there is time.

We Live in Funny Times

To regular readers the title of this post has to be a strange one as I have been lamenting the times in which we live since before I started this usually daily conversation with myself and some of you. But if you watch the Daily Show you do known that even Bush and Bin Laden can be funny when looked at from Jon Stewart's angle.

When I first started watching him a few years ago, I was convinced that it was not only funny, but, more importantly, it was the best news show on television. Clearly, now a lot of other people think so, too. Whether it's a survey by Pew, a lengthy article in the NY Times, a squib in The Atlantic - whatever it is, the show has reached the stage where it is a necessary stop for anyone who thinks they have written a serious tome. More importantly, it is a refuge for those of us who need to laugh through our tears.

Thank God It's Over

"It" being the Inspector Lynley series on PBS. I'm glad that Elizabeth George has gotten some extra royalties from the characters she created.

If anyone thinks that the recent embarrassments shown on the PBS Mystery series are anything like the novels George wrote, they really should give George's novels a try.

It used to be that the BBC would only send us their best work. If the recent Mystery episodes - with the exception of Foyle's War - are representative of the best England has to offer, that country is in worse shape than I thought.

South African Athletes Are Different

First, there was Oscar Pistorius, the sprinter with two artificial legs. Now, it's Natalie duToit, a marathon swimmer whose left leg was amputated in 2001. Pistorius failed to qualify for the Olympics, du Toit did. Imagine what she would have done if she had not lost her leg!

Who will be the biggest panderer?

Today's entrant is Mr. Obama, who proposes that seniors earning less than $50,000 pay no federal income tax.

On first blush it has appeal to we "golden agers", most of whom vote. But, upon the most cursory of analyses, it is a truly stupid idea on a par with a gas tax holiday.

Chinks in Their Armor?

If you look at almost anything long enough, there is always a down side. So, the Wall Street Journal has found a downside to Russia's demolition of Georgia. In fact, they have found two downsides - weapons and training. The tanks used by Russia were vintage 1971, although they did use 21st century smart bombs. Their planes were flying too low because their pilots receive 60 hours of training compared to NATO's 150.

And, most embarassingly, a general was wounded, which, I guess, has never happened to us.

He Doesn't Sound Chastened

In this article from today's NY Times Saakashvili has not changed his tone. He sounds as stupid as he has been acting. These are his words:

“We will fight to the end, until the last Russian soldier leaves Georgian soil and this country is not going to be brought to the knees anymore. We are not surrendering, no matter what.”

“We already saw U.S. Air Force landing in Georgia despite Russians controlling the airspace,” he said, after a C-17 had touched down. “And we will see U.S. military ships entering Georgian ports despite Russians blocking it. That we will see.” He added, “These will be serious military ships.”

For his part, Mr. Saakashvili was characteristically undeterred. He was asked Wednesday night whether if he could turn back the clock to late last week, when he said he received signs of Russian troops moving to the border, he would order an attack again.

“Absolutely,” he said, and couched the answer in terms of his own political survival. “We have an obligation to react to it. Any Georgian government that wouldn’t have reacted to it would have fallen instantly.”

Wise Words from Barry Rithholtz

In an essay on the different growth curves between world GDP and oil production are found these words:

"Focusing on this one issue [oil] simply to the exclusion of all else is childish ignorance. In this country, we keep refusing to make the difficult decisions. Everything requires a quick and painless fix. (We better wise up fast)."

They live in a different world than I

I never got sexually aroused over tomatoes and I don't know any women who got aroused over cucumbers, but, in the world of Islamist fanatics such as al Qaeda, I guess they do, as they consider tomatoes female and cucumbers male and don't think these sexually provocative vegetables should be bought or even handled by the opposite sex.

One Sunni old guy claims, "They even killed female goats because their private parts were not covered and their tails were pointed upward, which they said was haram."

Does it have to do with a sense of inferiority?

At the latest minute those in charge of the opening ceremonies at the Olympics decided that the girl with the best voice was not pretty enough, she had buck teeth. So, they had the prettier girl pretend to sing a song recorded by the average-looking girl.

Sometimes things are not what they seem

They Certainly Don't Look 16

If all of these girls are 16, the minimum age for gymnasts in the Olympics, I would be shocked even if I hadn't read this article in the NY Times.

If your 16-year-old daughter looked that young, you'd be taking her to the doctor for tests.

Talk about a Prescient Article

Almost two years ago, Jon Sawyer, then director of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, wrote an article for Foreign Policy’s web site. The article was entitled “Georgia’s Dangerous Game". It basically foretold the current catastrophe. Sawyer refers to Georgia’s actions as “a triumph of bluster over geographical common sense in a nation that remains very much in Russia’s shadow”.

Georgia at that time seemed to be baiting Russia and relying on U.S. help. Among the incidents: arresting four Russian soldiers for spying, trying to block Russia’s entry into the WTO. Russia responded by cutting off trade and deporting Georgians.

The U. S. has backed Georgia with money, both in foreign aid and Millennium Challenge grants. Bush thinks highly of Saakashvili, the Georgian president. He called him “a man who shares the same values I share [who] believes in the universality of freedom”. Human Rights Watch does not share that view; they have blasted Saakashvili for judicial corruption, police abuse and the mistreatment of prisoners.

Two excerpts from Sawyer’s essay:

Saakashvili shouldn’t believe everything he hears from Washington. Despite the fulsome rhetoric and American largess, make no mistake—the United States would not come to Georgia’s aid if its confrontation with Russia heats up. Georgia is in Russia’s backyard. Given its military exposure elsewhere and its interest in Russian help on issues like North Korea and Iran, the United States will almost always side with Russia, or at the very least, remain on the sidelines.

If Saakashvili gets the war with Russia he has sometimes appeared to seek, it is the people of his country who will pay the price. But, far away from the fighting, the United States will bear a large part of the blame.

Despite the main stream media's attempt to blame Russia for this and stress Georgia's innocence, this is not likely the case as Georgia did start this battle by trying to take over South Ossetia, which seems to prefer being Russian rather than Georgian citizens.

Martha's Vineyard August 10, 2008

Differing Approaches

I really don't have much insight into what's happening with Georgia and Russia but I thought that this comment by Ben Smith an important differentiator between the two people who want to be president.

When the North Caucasus slid into war Thursday night, it presented John McCain and Barack Obama with a true “3 a.m. moment,” and their responses to the crisis suggested dramatic differences in how each candidate, as president, would lead America in moments of international crisis.

While Obama offered a response largely in line with statements issued by democratically elected world leaders, including President Bush, first calling on both sides to negotiate, John McCain took a remarkably — and uniquely — more aggressive stance, siding clearly with Georgia’s pro-Western leaders and placing the blame for the conflict entirely on Russia.

Protecting Your Own

A study by an Israeli human rights group, Yesh Din, concluded that only 6% of the investigations into violence against Palestinians committed by Israeli soldiers and settlers resulted in indictments. In many cases paperwork was lost or identifications could not be made.

Settlers in and around Hebron are a particular problem. The 700 settlers, who live among 170,000 Palestinians, are protected by 1,000 Israeli soldiers – more than 1 soldier for each settler, man, woman or child. This group built a shrine to one of their number who killed 29 Palestinians as they prayed in a mosque. In especially troubled times in this area, the police establish a curfew for the Palestinians, but not the settlers.

Mixed Messages

Here is Leila Fadel's take on things in Iraq as of August 5:

Driving through Iraq you feel the neglect here. In Basra the city is rivers of sewage, destroyed buildings and bridges from war after war after war.

Every day I pass by the same buildings destroyed years ago during the U.S. led invasion in my neighborhood in Baghdad. Every day they look exactly the same, a pile of rubble. The electricity problem seems to be getting worse; Iraqis have an average of about four hours of electricity a day. While there is talk of reconstruction, a bridge here, flowers planted there the people don't feel a change.

We Probably Owe It To Them

We've screwed the American Indians out of so much that I should not get excised about this GAO report. It documents the loss or theft of a significant amount of property from the Indian Health Service in the last three years. Because of poor recordkeeping the GAO could not be sure how much has been lost. Some of the items would be difficult to lose - pickup trucks, tractors, ATVs, Jaws of Life. Others would be easier such as PCs and cameras. In total it seems as though at least 5,000 items are unaccounted for.

The problem was particularly acute at headquarters. 36% of the IT equipment was missing and employees tried to doctor the records. Things were so bad there that the Inspector General has been called in.

The Check Is In The Mail

Is that what 1,600,000 businesses are telling the IRS? As of the beginning of this fiscal year that's the number of businesses that owed us a total of $58 billion in payroll taxes, including penalties and interest. What is the IRS doing to collect?

Not much it appears. They are focusing on asking these deadbeats to pay up. They could file tax liens. They could assess penalties on individuals. And some of these deadbeats don't seem to be very nice people. One owes us almost $2,500,000 yet he doesn't report his true income and, according to the GAO, may be involved in check kiting and money laundering. Another has a scheme whereby he files for bankruptcy just after he takes out a large amount of cash from the business. A third sold his property to his kids for less than market value so the IRS would bet nothing. As a result of these delinquencies we have to put more into the Social Sscurity and Medicare trust funds.

The problem is getting worse. In 1998 there were 5,367 businesses with over twenty quarters of unpaid taxes; in 2007 that number was 14,681. Those companies who hadn't remitted their payroll taxes in forty quarters - that's ten years - went from 86 to 490 in the same time period.

As Dirksen was quoted, "A billion here, a billion there and soon you have some real money." Or, something like that.

Connecticut: a Religious State?

Many years ago I drove frequently to Waterbury. I would always tell myself that one of these days I should visit the Holy Land, a replica in miniature of Jerusalem and environs that a local devout Catholic had built near Waterbury. I never made it there as I was too busy in Waterbury and too anxious to get home.

Last week I was at the Litchfield Jazz Festival and was surprised to learn from the program that a Catholic shrine had been reproduced in Connecticut. A replica of the grotto at Lourdes is open from May to October. There is even a web site.

I have a feeling that there is a third shrine in the state, again near Waterbury.

Are people in Connecticut more religious than the residents of other Northeastern states?

Still Paying

The deal was that the government of Iraq would employ the Sons of Iraq, the Sunnis who have been paid by the U.S. to fight the insurgents. The government has only employed 20% of the 103,000 Sunnis who make up the Sons of Iraq. What that means is that we are still paying the other 80%. So, every month another $20-50 million of our money goes to pay the Sunnis. This does not count our costs for distributing the money or for providing ways for the Sunnis to earn the money. For example, we have set up vocational schools and made grants over and above the monthly stipend paid to the Sons of Iraq.

Couldn't Iraq use some of the $76 billion surplus to pay their fellow countrymen?

A Chameleon Has Come to Boston

The top story in Boston for the past week has been that of Clark Rockefeller, also known as Christopher Crowe and Christopher Chichester, but who was very likely born Christian Karl Gerhartsreiter. The story is a testament to people's willingness to believe another person - at least for a while - if the person tells a good story well and appears to come from money.

Gerhartsreiter was able to tell a good enough story so that he could travel across America for thirty years without having held a significant job for any length of time. Yet, despite any sort of record in the investment business, he was hired as a vice president by Nikko, a reasonably sized Japanese securities concern.

He was able to ingratiate himself with some local powers in California and here in Boston where he was on the board of directors of the Algonquin Club, a fairly posh, Yankee private club. He was smooth enough to convince two women to marry him; one of these women was fairly high up in the financial world and provided Gerhartsreiter homes in London and Boston.

His kidnapping of his child following his divorce unlocked a chain of events that seems to have solidly linked him to his beginnings in Germany. He was done in by fingerprints. First his fingerprints matched those of someone wanted in the disappearance of a couple from whom he rented living quarters in California and then they matched those of a German who immigrated to the U.S. in the late 1970s.

I don't think Mr. Rockefeller Crowe Chichester Gerhartsreiter will lack for money as I'm sure we'll be seeing a movie or tv show based on his life. Con man, kidnapper, possible murderer. Can't you see the possibilities?

Breaking the Ice

Back in April I reported on an article in Foreign Affairs that discussed the implications of global warming making the Arctic Ocean more accessible. The subject has finally reached the mass media. And it tells basically the same story - we are just not ready to compete in this market.

Our long-time competitor, Russia, is better prepared than we are. They have more ice breakers, seven to our two. Their nuclear-powered ice breakers are bigger and better than ours, they can move through nine feet of solid ice, we have trouble at 6.5 feet. All of which translates to their being better prepared to tap the resources that are acknowledged to be significant, as much as one-fourth of the undiscovered oil and natural gas.

Durham University in England has created a map that shows areas claimed by the competing nations. A larger version can be found here.

The Burden of History

“We Chinese carry the burden of our history with us and the question of Western humiliation is always unconsciously inside us,” Chen Shi-Zheng, a Chinese film director. He’s referring to the period from the Opium Wars in the 1800s to World War II, a period which saw China defeated – and defeated badly – many times. The humiliation reached the point where they passed a law proclaiming “National Humiliation Day”. There is even a school of literature based on “100 years of national humiliation”. The idea of humiliation has been so embedded in the culture that, at one time, “Never forget our national humiliation” was a common slogan.

It seems surprising in these days of China’s advancing role on the world stage that humiliation should be a factor in the life of many Chinese. But insecurity is one of man’s basic traits.

People Are The Same

Even in North Korea. Christian Caryl has a fascinating article about North Korea in the current issue of the NY Review of Books. He argues that the collapse of the state-run food distribution system was the trigger that resulted in many, if not most, North Koreans taking the steps necessary to survive without state support. As a result, there is a fairly decent underground economy that may lead to greater freedom at some distant point in the future.

The government also seems to be doing some things to open the country up somewhat. In 2002 it lifted some price controls and legitimized some private markets. Travel became easier within the country and, for some, across the border into China. In fact, trade with China is booming and, as happens in many cases, this is opening the eyes and minds of many North Koreans to the outside world. Video recorders have become hot items in North Korea, offering still another view of the larger world.

I’m not planning to visit the country soon, but maybe my kids might.

Good Spending by the Pentagon

The Pentagon will spend $300,000,000 this fiscal year on research for post-traumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. Of course, there are a couple of hundred thousand veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan that have these problems. But, at least, the Pentagon is starting to address the end result of our bellicosity.

Cruel and Unusual Punishment?

Richard Cooey, who raped and murdered two young girls in 1986, claims that he is too fat to be executed by the state of Ohio. His weight makes it difficult to find his veins plus he's taking medication which may reduce the effectiveness of the drug that will be used to put him under before the lethal drugs are administered. As a result, he would suffer pain before he dies.

How much pain did the two girls he raped and murdered suffer?

In almost all cases I am opposed to the death penalty. But you have to wonder at this defense.

Screw the worker. Screw the taxpayer.

That could be the motto of many senior executives of such companies as Intel, Hartmarx, Albany International, Illinois Tool Works, Oneida, Parker Hannifin. Basically, these companies and others are moving their pension money into their employees' pension funds. Why? The company gets tax benefits, the executives get more money.

As part of the move to a more just world in the 20th century, the Federal government allowed employers to take a tax deduction for monies contributed to a pension fund for the rank and file. Monies contributed in a disproportionate manner were not tax deductible.

Need I say that compensation consultants earn money by advising executives how to use the tax laws to get richer? The consultants and the companies spend hours, nay days, moving people into high-salaried and low-salaried groups until they get the right groups, "right" being that which favors the executives without running the risk of losing the tax benefit.

We get screwed because the company can take a tax deduction on what is essentially a gravy train for the executives. The workers get screwed because in many cases most of the money in the pension fund will go to the higher-ups; e.g., in the case of Intel only 4% of the pension fund will go to the workers.

The latest fad

First in Canada. Then in Greece.

And you say we are not in the end days? Or, just maybe civilization is falling apart.

Use Vitamin C Sparingly

In its effort to lower pollution, China has shut down many of its manufacturing plants, including those that produce ascorbic acid, which we know as vitamin C.

How much of the world's supply does China produce? 80%.

Since ascorbic acid is a component of most food and beverage production, how much of a price increase will producers blame on the temporary shortfall?

Ready for the Geriatric Ward?

Not if your Dave Brubeck and his trio of aged jazzmen. They appeared at the Litchfield Jazz Fest last night. Sure, Brubeck has the mobility problems of an 87-year-old, that is until he sits down at the piano. Then, he's as sure as he was 50 years ago at Newport. The bassist and alto sax/flutist were quite good, but I could have sworn that the drummer was Joe Morello; he had the sharpness that, for me, was Morello at his finest.

The most impressive aspect of the night was not the skill of the musicians but the fact that Brubeck is very much of today. I expected a session consisting primarily of the old favorites. I was wrong. There was a poignant call-and-response duo of "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" between Brubeck and the flutist. There were other ballads and up-tempo numbers that really got the crowd moving.

He did end the night with "Time Out" but only because the festival's sponsors wanted to showcase one of their students, an 11-year-old alto saxophonist, Dagoda Austin (spelling?). The kid was not the headmaster's son, he was very good. If he continues to improve, he can be one of the greats.

There was another young musician who caught my ear, Zaccai Curtis. He's a pianist who played backup to Nicole Zuertlis (spelling again). He looked to be about 20, but he's a heck of an improviser.

"Structured by cows and we would rate it"

That's how one analyst at Standard & Poors spoke of a proposed structured finance deal in an e-mail appearing in an SEC report on the ratings agencies. Another analyst called a deal "ridiculous" and commented "we should not be rating it". A manager of a group rating CDOs referred to this market as a house of cards when he wrote in an e-mail, " Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters."

And we wonder why this market has blown up!

Is John McCain Stupid?

That's the headline in an article by Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal, a bastion of Republicans. (If I could figure out this MAC, I'd give you the link to the article in today's newspaper.)

I have not watched much of the campaign thus far but the few times I've seen McCain I have not been impressed. He seems, looks and acts old in the way old people did when I was a kid. Today's seniors are a lot more active, aware and alive than the senator. He has to display at least the energy and enthusiasm of most 72 year-olds I know.

The Next Thing They'll Want Is For You To Travel Naked

In order to protect us the Department of Homeland Security has decided that they can take your laptop, cell phone or any digital device and hold it for as long as they want while they make the information on the device available to anyone they wish. They can even take your copy of The Wall Street Journal or the book you just bought to read on the plane. It doesn't matter whether you look and act totally innocent. If some border guard wants to harass you because you have green eyes, he can.

Do we still live in the United States of America?

Who's Running the Show?

ISI, Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence, can't seem to escape being the subject of a major news story this week. Today, the spy agency is accused of being part of the plot to bomb the Indian embassy in Kabul last month. The bombing has also escalated matters between Pakistan and India and, once more, there has been fighting in Kashmir.

Is the new Pakistani government engaged in a behind-the-scenes battle with the ISI? Or, is ISI now running the show there? The answer is vital not only to Pakistan, but to the world as the country is still a refuge to many in al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations.