Another View of the War on Terror

Remember when Kerry claimed that we might be better off if we treat terrorists as criminals rather than being at war with them? As with much he said in that campaign, this idea never got the traction it deserved. If you want a reasoned argument for Kerry’s claim, read this month’s issue of the Strategic Studies Newsletter, a publication put out by the US Army War College. This issue reports on a conference held earlier this year on “Law vs. War: Competing Approaches to Fighting Terrorism”.

The article you want to read is “Squaring the Error” by Michael German, who worked as an undercover agent in terrorist groups for the FBI. His basic argument is that we have played into the terrorists’ hands by abandoning the strengths inherent in a free democracy largely because we have failed to try to understand terrorists. In German’s experience, terrorists see the world in “us” versus “them” terms. Kind of like the way we see the world in our War on Terror.

In his experience, all terrorists, by and large, have a very similar view of the world: they don’t like the status quo; they can’t change the status quo through legitimate means; they don’t have the military power to force change. Their goal is to devise an attack that will change the status quo and throw things into chaos out of which right will emerge.

Like Richard Clarke, German thinks of the terrorist’s world as being made up of concentric circles. The hard-core members are at the center and those with lower levels of commitment are in different circles. The terrorists have to act to gain influence among these various circles. As they move to different circles, the circle is bigger, the people’s commitment less; thus, it becomes harder to gain the circle’s attention and confidence. So, they perform an act that seems to benefit the community, such as killing a policeman who has been shaking down local businessmen. German argues that this stage is critical and the terrorists must be branded as criminals; overreacting by treating them as warriors in battle and clamping down hard on both the innocent and guilty members of the community will only bolster the terrorists’ position.

He uses the French actions in Algiers as an example of what can happen. The French broke the FLN, but activated other Algerian resistance so that eventually the French lost the war in Algeria, although they won the Battle of Algiers. German thinks that we are close to being in the same situation as the French: “divided at home, alienated from allies abroad, fighting an enemy all over the globe that can strike when and where it wants.”

What can we do to avoid our own Battle of Algiers?

One thing we have to keep uppermost is that “Nothing makes it more difficult for a terrorist to convince people that the government is oppressive and unjust than scrupulously protecting his rights in a public criminal trial”. Tell that to the people in Guantanamo!

Take Sun Tzu’s advice and know ourselves as well as we know our enemy. Knowledge cannot exist unless we are honest about why 9/11 was not prevented. We had the information; we just didn’t act on it due to bumbling and mismanagement.

Treat terrorists as criminals. Their community will see them as bad guys, not heroes, and see us as validating our authority. Try them in public.

One of the biggest fears of the terrorist is that their group has been compromised by an infiltrator. Sharing and publicizing information about one terrorist group has a negative effect on other terrorist groups in that instead of acting they have to constantly resort to other plans.

We stepped on the solidarity the world provided us after 9/11 and handed terrorists a golden opportunity to legitimize themselves by departing from the rule of law and alienating our friends. Respect the law. Restore international cooperation.

Stop demonizing our enemies as the terrorist demonizes us.

“Terrorism will never go away, and free and open societies will always be especially vulnerable. But we do not win by becoming less free and less open. Ironically, al Qaeda does not have the power to destroy the United States of America. But we do.”

Shades of Gray

It's seldom that something is all white or all black. So it is for me with dance and Morgan Stanley.

I am not a fan of dance, particularly ballet. But, in support of Habitat for Humanity here on the Vineyard - yes, there is a crying need for affordable housing on Martha's Vineyard -, I went to a performance of Lorraine Graves and Friends last night. The company is made up primarily of principal dancers from the Dance Theatre of Harlem. In short, they were fantastic. How they made some moves I'll never know. One of my friends, a physical therapist, was almost convinced that the human body could not move that way. The best part was the variety, the music varied from Dvorak to James Brown.

Over the past several months I've written a few negative articles on Morgan Stanley as run by Purcell. While my articles were, I feel, more than validated, I have to acknowledge that this dance performance was underwritten in large measure by Morgan Stanley. It was the first time a major Wall Street firm had unwritten the arts on the Vineyard. Kudos to Morgan Stanley for their generosity.

Can you find 26 people who will agree on a very complex subject?

Some newspaper stories have lambasted NASA because seven of the twenty-six panel members of the Return to Flight Task Group published a dissent to the conclusions reached by the Task Group, although the Task Group’s report was far from a whitewash.

The Task Group was charged with reviewing how well NASA had implemented seventeen recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Looked at strictly by the numbers, NASA did okay: they implemented eleven, had mixed results with three and did not succeed with three.

It so happens that the three not implemented are thought by some to be the most critical recommendations: to eliminate all foam insulation debris from the external fuel tank; harden the shuttle's heat-shield system to resist any impacts that do occur; and develop reliable tile and wing leading edge repair techniques. But is improper inspection (which was a problem with Columbia) really less important than any one of the three failures? Yet, that was only one area where NASA improved significantly. What about an improved ability to deal with safety contingencies? As in most cases, we all have our own personal slant on things.

The Task Group concludes by reminding us that “Space, by its nature, is a hostile environment.” “…it is likely that another accident will happen in the future; if not with Space Shuttle, then with whatever vehicle replaces it.”

More budget information

In their recent report predicting a significant decline in the estimated budget deficit for this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also made a couple of scary forecasts:

• If the administration's tax cuts are not rolled back on their sunset date of 2011, the projected deficit could grow from $281 billion to $1.5 trillion.
• Mandatory spending (such as Medicare, Social Security) is now 8% of our GDP. In 2030 it could grow to 12-17% of GDP.

What's with the medical profession?

Last week it was doctors promoting drugs for companies in which they own stock. Then, there was the story questioning the peer review process used by medical journals. Yesterday there was the story of universities misusing NIH research funds.

A study by the University of Minnesota and HealthPartners Research Foundation found that more than half of the scientists used NIH grant money of $20 billion a year - that's our tax money, folks - on projects for which no grant money was designated by NIH.

Cornell is the example used in the article in the Wall Street Journal. They paid the NIH $4.4 million to settle charges, such as phantom projects, phantom nurses, phantom patients, using grant money for other than the intended purposes.

Last year it was the priesthood that was off its pedestal. This year it looks as though the medical profession will soon be joining the priesthood.

Who's Telling the Truth?

The BBC reports that the Brazilian fellow who was killed in the London subway last month did not jump the turnstile; was wearing a denim jacket, not a winter coat; was held while being shot eight times. If this is true, the police are guilty of murder and covering up murder.

California sees the light.

The Supreme Court of California has put back on the ballot Arnold's idea of having a judicial panel draw the redistricting lines. As I've said many times before, the only way we will get out of this situation of having the same people represent us until they die or take a lucrative lobbyist post is by taking redistricting out of the hands of the politicians. Arnold has taken that first step for California voters. Let's hope other governors do the same thing.

What a difference 60 years makes

Yesterday’s 60^th anniversary of VJ Day brought back memories of WWII. Then, I started to list the ways that war differed from today’s Operation Freedom Iraq. I know the following list is far from complete but it is early in the morning here on the Vineyard:

• We were the attacked, not the attackers.
• The democracies of the world wanted us to enter the war. Today, most of the leading democracies opposed our invasion of Iraq.
• We had the Marshall Plan to restore our enemies’ world. Today, we can’t even ensure the Iraqis will have electricity for a full day. Which brings to mind that we had a post-war plan because we were not under illusions about how wonderful the world would be for the defeated nations.
• Everybody – whether you were 5 or 75 years old - in this country knew we were at war. And everybody sacrificed.
• We were not afraid that a photo of a casket containing a dead soldier would inflame the populace against the war.
• Income taxes were not lowered. Our leaders were not convinced that we could have a guns and butter economy.
• Just about everything was rationed. Roosevelt didn’t urge us to fight the enemy by shopping.
• We had a President who listened to his generals. Now, we are seeing what happens when you think you know more about war and securing the peace than those who have spent their life at it.
• Roosevelt told it to us straight. Why can’t Bush have the same faith in the American people?

I’ll stop now. It’s time for breakfast.

If you’re old enough, why don’t you add to the list?

VJ Day

Although it’s been sixty years, I still remember August 15, 1945. It was the day the Japanese surrendered. It so happens to also be the Feast of the Assumption (a fact noted by the religious among us).

It was a wild day for all of us, young and old. My sisters, cousins and I spent the day cutting up newspapers which we threw from the window when the formal announcement was made. The whole country was a bedlam. Even Cambridge Street was crowded unlike any other time before or since. You could cross the street only with great difficulty and with a degree of risk. Drivers and others were drunk. I can still see the guy down the street playing his bagpipes. The blaring of car horns was constant. It was an unbelievable day across the country and around the world. Finally, we thought, man might have learned something from the war and its ending.

What does PSC stand for?

In Defense Department parlance PSC stands for Private Security Corporation. PSCs provide security in Iraq. After reading an article in yesterday’s NY Times Magazine, I think PSC should stand for Pretty Shitty Command by our Defense Department (DOD).

First of all, the idea of a mercenary army fighting for our side goes against the American grain. Didn’t we fight against German mercenaries in the Revolutionary War? Is it possible that some soldiers don’t re-enlist but join a PSC for the money since the typical PSC fighter is paid between $400 and $700 a day? DOD has hired as a consultant on outsourced security one Lawrence Peter, a paid advocate for the PSC industry. Talk about independent consulting!

This particular type of ‘outsourcing’ started at the very beginning of our occupation of Iraq. A PSC was hired to protect the staff of the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, the precursor of the CPA. In the words of General Jay Garner, our first ‘governor’ there, it was done because, “The military just hadn’t provided enough numbers.” Again, the belief that Rumsfeld knew better than General Shinseki (who was fired for saying we’d need a heck of a lot of troops to pacify Iraq) has led to another fiasco.

No one really knows how many mercenaries are in Iraq. The best estimate is 25,000. That’s about 15-17% of our real soldiers and these guys do not report to anyone in the normal military chain of command; in the words of DOD, “PSCs are not being used to perform inherently military function.” Yet, although they have fought against the insurgents and protected bigwigs, I guess these activities are not inherently military.

Now, if the average mercenary earns only $100,000 annually and there are 25,000 of them, we, the taxpayers, are shelling out $2,500,000,000 a year for these guys. Then, of course, you have to add in overhead and a profit margin. We are paying one company $250,000,000 for one year. This company employs about 1,000. If you assume that our costs are the same for the 25,000 mercenaries, then the bill jumps to $6 ¼ billion a year. How many real soldiers could we support for that amount of money?

Private Security Company or another example of Pretty Shitty Command? You tell me.

What is collective bargaining?

Remember the commotion over employee rights when the Homeland Security Department ws being created? Well, the union sued and the case was finally decided. Here's what the judge, a Bush appointee, said, "The department could unilaterally absolve itself of contractual obligations while employees and their unions would be bound by those agreements....Collective bargaining has at least one ireducible minimum that is missing: a binding contract."

In other words, the government tried to screw its employees.

Over 50

It's not age I'm talking about. It's dead bodies. Dead American soldiers. The month is not quite half over, yet we're on track for 100+ deaths in Iraq in one month. Of course, since the insurgency is in its last throes, as our Vice President has said, things will be getting better soon.

That is, they might get better if the Army can figure out how to get adequate armor to our troops. For over a year now, the Army has been unable to equip our troops properly.

Hmm. I wonder why recruiting new troops is not going well.

An "interesting" year for Law on Martha's Vineyard

2005 will go down in Martha's Vineyard history as the year of the stupid lawsuits. There have been three of them. The sad part about it is that in only one of these cases has a party to the suit been a private citizen; in the other two cases both parties in the suit have been government entities, which means that you and I, average taxpayers, are footing the bill, not the government entities who are involved in the suits.

The first suit decided this year concerned the Wampanoag Indians and the Town of Aquinnah. About twenty years ago when the tribe was recognized by the federal government, they made an agreement with the Town of Aquinnah that the tribe would be bound by the laws and regulations of the Town. Well, as time went on, I guess the tribe forgot about that agreement, as they built a shed without obtaining approval (re zoning and other issues) from the Town. The tribe's argument was that they were a sovereign nation and, thus, not subject to Town laws. The Town disagreed and sued the tribe. The Town prevailed but not until considerable money had been spent not only by Aquinnah but by the other Island towns who filed amicus curiae briefs.

About ten years ago the Martha's Vineyard Airport was in bad shape, financially and operationally. Fortunately, a new set of airport commisioners came on board; many of the commissioners were good businessmen as well as pilots. They hired a professional manager, who turned things around so that the airport became one of the best run airports in New England. As a reward for the manager's good works, the commissioners wrote a new contract with the manager and his assistant. End of story, right? Well, not quite, as the airport commissioners are appointed by the county commissioners. The county Treasurer would not include the additional amount in the paychecks of the manager and assistant manager as the salaries for their position were not part of the county's payroll structure. So, suit number two began, this one financed on both sides by we taxpayers. The county lost and is now on the hook for almost $900,000 (their budget is $4 million plus), which will have to be paid by the taxpayers.

The third suit is a dispute between Wiliam Graham, of Washington Post money, and the town of West Tisbury, where I live. The assessment on Graham's property almost doubled within two years. He felt that his property was overvalued and tried to come to an agreement with the Town. He had one meeting with the assessors. I guess the meeting went quite badly in the assessor's eyes as they would not meet with him again. The result is a suit by Mr. Graham filed with the Appellate Tax Board of the state. It's not over yet, but as reported in one local newspaper, the Gazette, things don't look good for the Town, which will spend at least $250,000 (2% of the Town budget) on this suit. Now, the other local paper, the Times, claims that the owners of the Gazette are friends of Graham and, perhaps, their coverage is not impartial. Whether this is true or not, the fact of that $250,000 that has to be paid by the taxpayers, will, I'm sure, be a major factor in next year's Town elections.

Stem Cell Research and Innovation

Here are some quotes from the Science Journal column from Friday's Wall Street Journal, not exactly known for its espousal of liberal causes.

• "'..cutting-edge scientists are leaving because they can't do research here as a result of strict limits on human embryonic stem-cell studies. This overlay of values onto research is a very alarming development." Alan Leshner, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
• "Countries that never had a tradition of cutting-edge biomedical research now have an entree as a result of US stem-cell policy. Americans are at a disadvantage in not having the opportunity to develop the technical know-how." Evan Snyder of the Burmham Institute, a leader in stem-cell research.
• "This anti-scientism couldn't be more damaging to young people contemplating devoting their life to research. The sense of opportunity that was always predominant in the US now lies elsewhere." Ira Black, stem-cell researcher.
• "..the US will no longer be dominant in innovation. A larger number of international patents are being obtained overseas, R&D facilities are moving overseas. If we are not innovating here, the economic benefits will go elsewhere, too." G. Wayne Vlough, president of Georgia Institute of Technology.

Now you could argue that all of the above have an ax to grind, as they are in the stem-cell business in one way or another. But listen to Sharon Begley, the person who writes Science Journal for the Wall Street Journal, "Allowing a minority opinion to stifle research is only one symptom of politics undermining science.Some appointees to federal scientific advisory panels have been chosen for their ideology rather than their expertise; staffers with no research credentials alter the scientific (not only the policy) content of reports on climate change. Politicians' attacks on the science of evolution continue, even though "intelligent design" may make a fascinating lesson for a philosophy class, but it is not biology."

And you wonder why the number of US scientific papers is down, why we have fewer graduates in the sciences, why fewer and fewer scientific breakthroughs come from here!

Good news; Bad news

The good news is that the budget deficit was down from last July, $52.79 billion vs. $69.16 billion. So, it looks like the full year’s budget deficit will be down from last year’s record of $412 billion; it may be down to $325 billion. This is due mainly to revenue increases. Of course, this good news does not offset the fact that we have paid $156.52 billion in interest on the debt; last year we had paid a little less than $140 billion at this point.

The bad news is that the trade deficit hit its highest level in four months, largely due to the rise in oil prices. This was not expected by the feds. Although the dollar has dropped 15% over the last three years, the trade deficit does not shrink as it should in classical economic thought. Another concern of the trade deficit is that some products we used to export, such as tvs and other electronic products, we no longer do. Autos seems to be going the same way; we import $16.4 billion and export only $6.2 billion.

Entertainment is not a gift

Last Christmas I gave my daughter two tickets to a play. To one of my sons I gave a book. In February I told another son to take his girlfriend to a nice restaurant for Valentine’s Day and I’d pay for it. Which was a gift?

If I worked for a NASD member firm, only the book would be considered a gift and, thus, subject to a $100 limitation. The play tickets and the meal would be considered entertainment and, as long as the tickets or the meal were not given ‘so frequently’, they would be allowed by the NASD, even if they cost $1000 each.

Of course, all three were gifts, different kinds of gifts, but, in the real world, gifts. However, in the world of high finance, giving entertainment was not a gift.

The distinction was really played on by the Jeffries Group in trying to win business from Fidelity Investments. They hired someone, Kevin Quinn, who had ties to Fidelity’s traders. Quinn was successful in getting more business from Fidelity; he moved the company from 50th to 15th in terms of the commissions Fidelity paid to brokers. He was helped in doing so by having a $1,500,000 annual expense account reserved solely for seducing Fidelity traders. Now, that the SEC is investigating these payments to Fidelity people, Jeffries is trying to put all the blame on Quinn, ignoring the fact that they gave Quinn the money to break the law.

Going to America

We leave Martha's Vineyard at least once a month and go to America. Normally, our time on the mainland is fairly tightly scheduled: doctor's appointments, family visits, shopping, etc. On this last trip, however, we had the afternoon free and decided to go to a movie. The only convenient place to see it was at the Coolidge Corner Theatre in Brookline.

In the Summer, village centers on the Vineyard are crowded with tourists. But, the crowds here were nothing like those in Coolidge Corner. Boston being a college town, Coolodge Corner was filled with summer students, most of whom had tattoos. But, there were more than students there. There were people of all colors and ethnicities, old people, a few odd-looking people. The signs in some of the stores were in Russian; in other stores the signs were in Hebrew. The rapid transit, which goes right through the area, is quite different than the buses plied by Vineyard Transit.

The theatre was a marvelous old movie theatre. It was run by people who love movies and do not feel that they need to fill the lobby with arcade games. Similarly, there were no ads or previews before the movie. The first thing on the screen was the feature and when it ended there was nothing else on the screen until the next showing. I did not have to wonder what the answer was to the question of what 'famous' movie star was a mouseketeer. For the cineastes there were reprints of reviews of the movies being shown. The theatre was big, perhaps 700 seats. Symbols of Roman gods surround the screen. And, on a Thursday afternoon there were maybe 150 - 200 people there.

Part of the reason for the crowd was the movie: "Broken Flowers". This was Jim Jarmusch's first mainstream movie. And, it's a good one with a great cast - Bill Murray, Jessica Lange, Sharon Stone, Frances Conroy, Tilda Swinton, Julie Delpy.

All in all, Thursday was a fine example of the great city of Boston. Now, if I could convince my wife to move..........

How long can 5% feel like 33%?

The US has 5% of the world's population but a third of the world's scientific and engineering researchers. More than half of the doctoral-level scientists and engineers under 45 are foreign-born. How long can this continue when more and more Chinese and Indian kids are studying at home and we are putting up barriers to foreigners studying here? With their populations above a billion each, China and India can easily outnumber our native-born scientists and engineers with only a small percentage of their population involved in the sciences.

As Richard Freeman points out in this paper, we need to make science and engineering careers more attractive to our students. Business must not only scream about the lack of graduates, they have to pay them more.

It's your country

If you want the opportunity to elect people more representative of the views of the American public, read the latest report from the Center for Voting and Democracy.

If I don't acknowledge it, it doesn't exist

Yes, the former members of the 9/11 Commission have no legal powers. On June 16 they sent letters to the President, the Department of Defense, State Department, FBI, CIA and other executive agencies asking for interviews and updated information on what's being done to prevent terrorist attacks here.

To date they have received zero responses, not even an acknowledgement that the agencies received the letter. I guess the agencies feel that common courtesy is not needed when a war on terror is being fought. And, that war on terror is going so well - in their minds, anyway - that they need not report on it to the public.

What does 18.4 cents buy you?

18.4 cents is the federal tax on each gallon of gas sold in this country. It is supposed to be spent on fixing our roads and mass transit systems. Well, it seems that many of the roads and transit systems are in Alaska. For every person living there the new transportation bill will spend $1,501; the bill authorizes the munificent sum of $83 per person for the rest of us. Alaska, which ranks 47th in population, will receive more money than all but three states. It will receive almost a half billion dollars for two bridges that nobody wants. Is it a coincidence that the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrstructure Committee is from Alaska?

Over the years the number of pork projects encapsulated in the transportation bill has increased from 10 in 1982 to - sit down - 6,371 in 2005. This is a period when the rise of the professional politician was in full flower.

Hell, our roads stink; professional societies give them a grade of D. Mass transit is stagnant. And we're giving money to a museum that touts the history of the Packard automobile.

We need a better way to select our representatives. We must eliminate the gerrymandering that has made the profession of politician possible.

Coincidences?

The average parking meter in Boston requires repair four times a month. However, meters near restaurants which offer valet parking have to be repaired much more often. Coincidence or a profit-making opportunity?

Valet parking companies are required by law to park cars in garages. Of course, the valet people have to pay the garage. If they can park cars on the street, they pay no one and lower their cost of doing business. Ergo, net income is higher.

Is it a coincidence that 500 foreign objects were placed in meters in the major restaurant district in July? It certainly doesn't sound that way to me.

Reporting on Afghanistan

This month the GAO issued a report on Afghanistan reconstruction and it's not much better than that issued for Iraq. Management problems are virtually the same - "USAID lacked a comprehensive strategy to direct its efforts. USAID did not systematically collect information needed to assess the progress of its major projects...measures provided by the embassy to decision-makers in Washington did not comprehensively portray progress in each sector of the overall US program."

On this last point(poor reporting by the embassy), isn't our new ambassador in Iraq (Zalmay Khalid?) the same guy who led the embassy in Afghanistan? I hope he's read this report.

The report also pointed out the difficulties in planning when one is relying on a supplemental appropriation as we are doing in funding our wars. Not only is this an attempt to mask the true cost of these wars, but it also makes managing them harder.

Thus far, reconstruction has not done much to benefit Afghanistanis. They're still the fifth poorest country in the world. Half of them live below their poverty line. 20% don't get the minimum food they need daily. Perhaps, that's why opium production continues to rise.

Truth? Science? I know better

A quote from John Marburger, Bush's science adviser, "intelligent design is not a scientific concept". Another quote: "evolution is the cornerstone of modern biology".

And the other day, the Boss, George Bush, said that intelligent design "ought to be properly taught" alongside evolution in public schools. Another case of believing in something no matter what the facts are?

Another World

We sometimes have to be reminded how many of our fellow earthlings live. Here is a reminder.

The Court Sans Personalities

The current Atlantic Monthly has, as you’d expect, two articles on the Supreme Court. But they’re not about Roberts or the conservative-liberal divide. Thank God.

The first article, “Remote Control” by Stuart Taylor, Jr., argues that over the past 30 – 40 years the Court has become less involved with the real world. Taylor points out that the Court in the 1950s included a governor, former senators, attorneys general, solicitors general and SEC chairman. They had been prosecutors and had extensive experience in commercial law. Of the current Court, only O’Connor has held elective office and only Souter has presided over a commercial or criminal trial.

His argument is that the members of the 1950s’ Court had intimate experience with our political and judicial systems and, as a result, a good knowledge of the “beliefs and concerns of everyday Americans”. The current Court does not have similar experience as they have come from the appellate courts or academia, which are not exactly the places ‘everyday Americans’ inhabit. This is not good as their decisions are further and further removed from the lives we lead.

Further exacerbating the issue is that the average Justice stays on the Court longer; before 1970 the average tem was 15 years, since then it’s gone to 25 years. So, the opportunity for new blood to invigorate the Court is quite limited.

The second article, “Without Precedent” by Benjamin Wittes, argues that the Court doesn’t do a very good job. It “ignores its own principles and precedents…, misstates facts, and issues shoddy opinions”. Only someone with expertise in the workings of the Court can really comment on the accuracy or inaccuracy of Wittes’ claims. But, it is good to see someone raising the issue of the performance of the Court vis-à-vis the judicial, rather than a religious, system.

A Religious Protest

Buddhist monks - and I emphasize the plural as thousands of them are involved - are protesting a planned IPO by Thai Beverages on the grounds that a successful IPO will increase the sale and consumption of alcohol in Thailand. And alcohol consumption, they say, is contrary to Buddhist teachings.

Remember when Buddhist monks were protesting wars?

$6 Million Here, $6 Million There

Our friends at Morgan Stanley have just agreed to pay $6 million in fines and restitution to customers whom they over-charged.

Given the size of their previous fines and settlements, Morgan Stanley is probably paying this one out of petty cash.

A True Idiot

On yesterday's Stephanopolus program, Richard Santorum, the esteemed senator from the great state of Pennsylvania, said about the sex abuse scandal in the Catholic Church, in 2002 ''The senators from Massachusetts did nothing. They spoke nothing. They sat by and let this happen."

What planet is this guy on?

Who's Got the Data?

In general, the GAO (Government Accountability Office) does a good job. Aalthough their reports are a trifle circumspect, they’re fairly non-partisan and have no ax to grind. Over the past few years they’ve been auditing what they call Operation Iraqi Freedom. Last week they published a few more of their reports on “Rebuilding Iraq”.

The most important of these reports is the one entitled “Status of Funding and Reconstruction Efforts”. What they’ve found is, as you’d expect, not too good:

• Oil production and export is lower now than before the war.
• Electricity production is less than before the war.
• Iraqi access to clean water and decent sanitation is not measured.
• There was not even a list of the 64 water and sanitation projects the State Department claims to have completed.

Their conclusion: “Reconstruction efforts continue to face challenges such as rebuilding in an insecure environment, ensuring the sustainability of completed projects, and measuring program results.”

The issue of having meaningful data pops up again in the report “Preliminary Observations on Challenges in Transferring Security Responsibilities to Iraqi Military and Police”. The conclusion here:” ..without reliable reporting data, a more capable Iraqi force, and stronger Iraqi leadership, the Department of Defense faces difficulties in implementing its strategy to draw down U.S. forces from Iraq”.

And, again, the question of meaningful data in “Actions Needed to Improve Use of Private Security Providers”: “Despite the significant role played by private security providers in enabling reconstruction efforts, neither the Department of State, nor DOD nor the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have complete data on the costs of using private security providers.”

A Nation?

As I was reading “Bush’s Islamic Republic” by Peter Galbraith in the current NY Review of Books I was reminded of the spate of articles written a year or more ago promoting the idea of a confederation in Iraq, i.e., an Iraq made up of three separate fiefdoms (Shia, Sunni, Kurds) loosely organized into a ‘nation’. Bremer didn’t like that idea and pushed for a tightly organized nation. I wonder whether the insurgency would have been so virulent if Bremer had accepted the idea of many of the Iraqis.

No matter what Bremer wanted it appears as though the de facto situation on the ground in Iraq today is one of three separate fiefdoms. Let’s look at a few situations which support that view:

• The flag of Iraq is not flown in the capital of Kurdistan, nor was it present at the inauguration of the Kurdistan National Assembly. Most of those inaugurated pledged loyalty to the Kurdistan Region, while only a few pledged loyalty to the Kurdistan region “of Iraq” as the oath read.
• The few capable military units are former Kurdish peshmerga, who, if called by the Kurdish government, would in a heartbeat go north to fight for Kurdistan, rather than Iraq.
• Kurdish and Shia government officials use only their own people as bodyguards and do not inform Iraqi authorities of their movements.
• It is believed that Sunnis in the Iraq army cooperate with the insurgents, so desperate are they to regain the power they had under Saddam.
• Cities in the Shia South are governed by religious leaders who ignore those in Baghdad and ignore the freedoms in the interim constitution.
• Many Shia, particularly those in the religious parties, are promoting the interests of Iran. The leader of one party has recommended the payment of Iran-Iraq war reparations to Iran.
• The Shia oil minister wants to build a pipe line to Iran.
• 98% of the Kurds who voted on a referendum voted for Kurdish independence.
• When swearing in the cabinet, the Prime Minister eliminated the words “federal Iraq” from the statutory oath.

It does not look like a nation to me.

A 10th Planet?

It looks as though an object discovered in space in 2003 is very likely the tenth planet in our universe. That was the announcement made yesterday by a trio of US scientists. The object has the sexy name of 2003 UB313. It is the largest object discovered in space since Neptune in 1846.

What's your preference?

Hong Kong has been testing a new surveillance system for cargo. It combines gamma-ray, OCR and radiation scans. It's expensive in both start-up and operational costs, but it scans every container that comes into Hong Kong. And it scans the container quickly. And because it can identify the specific container, discovery of a suspect container does not mean a shutdown of the entire shipping industry.

Our Customs Service has not been very supportive of this new system. The current Customs system checks only suspicious containers, which translates to about 5.4% of the more than 7,000,000 containers that arrive in our ports each year. While the Customs Service has used the system for years and is happy with it, the system can't tell you where a nasty container came from nor is there much communication between ports. That means that if a nasty container is discovered the entire shipping industry could be shut down. The cost in money and terrorist satisfaction of such a shutdown would likely far exceed the cost of a better system.

More PBGC Data

PBGC, Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., is taking it on the chin from the airlines. Airline pension claims are now 38% of the claims against PBGC. What percent of the premiums have been paid by the airlines to PBGC? 2.6%.

Not a bad deal for the airlines since you and I will be picking up our share of these costs when we pay our taxes.

Add Another One

The former manager of the Columbia Young Investor Fund wants to buy the fund from the Columbia family of mutual funds. The results of the fund since he left have not been good; they're worse than the average fund in its category. Perhaps, the fact that the fund has had 6 different managers in the two years since David Brady, the former manager, left may have something to do with its performance. Then, again, the problem may be at higher levels within the Columbia family.

Consider that Thomas Theobald, the independent chairman of the board that oversees the fund, won't allow Brady to make a presentation to the board. Theobald claims that Brady's performance when he was managing the fund was sub-par. Yet Morningstar rated the fund better than 80% of its peers as did Columbia in its marketing material when Brady was manager.

Perhaps Theobald is overworked for the $172,500 he took home from Columbia last year for sitting on the boards of 118 Columbia funds. Let's see now. 118 boards, 250 working days in a year. So, assuming he works 250 days at Columbia, he spends 2.1 days for each fund, earning $690 per day. Anybody want to bet he does not work anywhere near 250 days a year?

We definitely are not alome

Scientists report the discovery of one of the largest objects in the outer solar system. It may be bigger than Pluto; it is certainly much further out than Pluto. Details are still very sketchy, but it seems to be made of ice and rock.

This discovery follows a similar one made last year. That object was given the name Sedna.

As the technology gets better and better, what will we discover? It's a great big universe out there.

The Truth Will Set You Free - another example

The EPA issues a report on automobile fuel economy every year about this time. This year's report was scheduled to be issued yesterday, the same day as the energy bill was in the news. Guess what? The report was delayed for some bs reason. Was it a coincidence that the report concludes that cars are less fuel-efficient today than in the later '80s?

DARPA Who?

I would not be writing, nor you reading, this unless an organization called DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) existed, was funded and had a long range view, for out of the work of DARPA in the 1960s came the Internet and a heck of a lot more technology.

The '60s were an era when the federal government invested in our country's future; it was not obsessed with the latest quarter. Now, it appears as though the people in power do not want to look beyond tomorrow. Witness: DARPA funding for long range research went from $214,000,000 to $123,000,000 from 2001 to 2004. Witness: our R&D funding ranks sixth in terms of our GDP; it's 2.7% of GDP. In Israel it's 4.4%, Sweden 3.8%, Finland 3.4%, Japan 3% and Iceland 2.9%. It's not only DARPA; it's most of the federal budget that had been devoted to long term research.

The result is that the number of patents that the US Patent Office issues to China, India and Japan has grown from 5% to 19% of all applications in the period 1989 to 2001.

India graduates 184,000 engineers annually. China graduates more, over 200,000. The US graduates 60,000. Our government's declining support of the sciences has to be responsible in some way for this.

Innovation and education made this country great. The results of innovation and education take time. Why won't our government realize this?

I can't believe this

I know that getting a mortgage is a heck of a lot easier now than it was when I was in the home buying market. While it is very risky, I can understand the mortgagors accepting lower credit scores, allowing more of a home's value to be borrowed against and even interest-only mortgages. But, not verifying a borrower's income or assets? It boggles my mind. Yet, Chase Home Finance is doing just that for its 'customers with the very highest credit rating'.

What's become of MG Rover and Huffy?

Well, Chinese companies are now, or about to become, major players in the fate of two iconic companies: England's MG Rover and the US' Huffy.

Nanjing Automobile has signed a deal to buy MG Rover. Huffy's Chinese suppliers plan to take a 30% stake in Huffy as well as control of the board of directors. In the case of Huffy, this action is due to poor management by Huffy. The Chinese companies are taking it over to try to recoup money owed them by Huffy.

Where are the Muslims?

A recent op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal asks "Why not a million Muslim march?" The article, written by Ahmed al-Rahim, a Muslim, exhorts Muslims to make their voice heard in condemnation of the dangerous extremists in their midst. They took to the streets when they thought we were desecrating the Koran. Why don't they take to the streets when fellow Muslims are desecrating their religion and their way of life?

The fatwa issued by the London Muslim leaders last week is a start, but a weak one.

It's about time

Twenty-seven months into this war Bush & Co. finally say that more than guns are needed to win the struggle against terrorism.

Measuring Iraq Progress Objectively

I finally looked at the metrics on the war that I wrote about last week. You'll find them at Alexander the Average's web site. I think Mr. Alexander has done a great job.

He looks at the issue in terms of four key tasks:

1. Defeat the enemy, prevent further escalation of violence and restore security
2. Build Iraqi military and security forces, transition them to fight
3. Rebuild Iraqi infrastructure and economy
4. Build Iraqi government.

Each of the key tasks is subdivided. There are some sub-tasks whose completion is more subjective than I would like. But, on the whole, this is information we should be getting from our government. It corresponds to what Biden asked for in his June speech re the war.

Alexander feels that things are moving in a positive direction. But he cautions that we have a long way to go, years in some cases.

What's all the fuss about

The Supreme Court is not the branch of our government that actually governs; governing is the function of the executive and legislative branches. It's true that the Court rules on many important matters, but, hearing less than 100 cases a year,it does not rule on all important matters. Yet, with all the brouhaha on both sides you'd think that the selection of the next Supreme Court judge is the most important thing to be done in our lifetime.

Rather than spend tens of millions of dollars on ads supporting or denouncing Roberts, these groups should spend the money on soldiers' families or food for the hungry. Spend it on trying to help solve some real problems, not on spreading some unimportant bull shit.

Sure, Roberts is conservative, but many conservatives, such as Black and O'Connor and Souter, have voted on the liberal side in many of their decisions. Some people do change. Some judges have changed. It's possible that Roberts might.

The Harvard Law Review recently published a summary of Supreme Court decisions over the past 10 years. 36% of these decisions were unanimous, 21% were 5 - 4. What makes us think that Roberts will really change these results?

Finally someone speaks out

Yes, it's not on the front page, but there is an article in today's NY Times about "Iraq war light", i.e., the attempt to wage a very serious war without asking the nation to sacrifice. Today's article by Thom Shanker reports on the rising tide of questions from the military as to why they seem to be the only ones involved in this war. One officer is quoted, "Nobody in America is asked to sacrifice, except us."

This is a far cry from my recollections of World War II and even Korea. America - you, me, all of us - were at war in our daily lives then. Today, unless you know someone in Iraq, the war is only something that makes the front page, just as Michael Jackson's trial did. It is not something that affects one's life.

Granted that there is supposedly a war on terrorism going on and living a 'normal' life may demonstrate that terrorists have not won. However, Iraq is part of the war on terrorism only in that it is and has been a prime breeding ground for the very terrorism we must defeat.

Another example of the 1984 world in which we live.

And now Egypt

You wonder whether the terrorists think that they are on a roll. London twice this month, Egypt yesterday. My sense is that if this 'campaign' continues, we'll be back to a post 9/11 mentality around the world. Countries will be more unified in combating terrorism. However, we must realize that terrorists will never be completely stopped. The world is a dangerous place and always will be. Our time here is very finite.

Trying to Measure Iraq Progress Objectively

There is an interesting experiment being conducted in Alexander the Average's blog . He's trying to come up with relatively objective criteria to measure the progress or lack of it in Iraq. I haven't had a chance to study it yet, but it looks pretty good.

Who's innovating?

I may be wrong but I was under the impression that the US was the leader in biometric identification. If my impression is correct, then the introduction of a vascular fingerprint by Fujitsu is another indication of slippage in our ability to lead innovation.

Fujitsu has invented a device that maps the blood vessels in your palm and can compare them, for example, to a picture taken at an ATM machine.

Loyalty? Fair Disclosure?

I’ve always had a good opinion of Motorola. They made good products and treated their employees well. But, since they have fallen out of the financial pantheon, they seem to have had less regard for their employees, at least those who are now earning a pension after spending their working life with the company.

Take the case of Fred Loewy. He worked at Motorola’s Scottsdale plant for 35 years until retiring in 1998 at the age of 73. He wanted to maximize his pension and Social Security payments. Well, 8 years later he finally got what he was entitled to. He was the victim of poor Federal law and shoddy, if not illegal, practices by Motorola.

At first reading the law seems fair: any retiree who disagrees with a company’s benefits decision has a right to appeal it and to see the benefit plan documents it is based on. That last half is where Fred and most other retirees got screwed. He, like most of us, did not know all of the documents he should ask for and Motorola did not volunteer the information. And, as with most laws, there is a statute of limitations. While Motorola was stonewalling Fred, the clock was ticking. If they stalled long enough, the company hoped Fred’s rights under the law would vanish.

Like many pension plans, Motorola’s reduced your pension by one-half of your Social Security payment. By working beyond 65, Fred increased the monthly payment he would receive from the government. He felt that Motorola should reduce his pension by one-half of what he would have received at 65, not that received at 70. It seems like a very simple argument to me that can be proved or disproved fairly quickly by looking at the paperwork. Motorola did not see it that way. First, they would not acknowledge receipt of Fred’s letters, although they were send via certified mail. Then they issued a couple of checks with no explanation. Then, they turned things over to an attorney, who made false statements.

Fortunately, Fred was a persistent guy and took the company to court. Motorola lost and has to pay Fred and 500 other retirees the money they are owed. But, the law remains the same and who knows how many times a company is cheating a retiree?

Of course, being Chairman is not that bad.

Today’s Wall Street Journal reports on Sanford Weill’s attempt to leave Citibank and start a fund of his own. Negotiations broke down because Weill wanted to leave but retain his bonus, pension and perks (including use of the jet, the car, the driver). I guess Weill was worried about his financial future. After all, he only has $887,000,000 in Citibank stock and who knows how much in other investments. He’d probably miss the $1,000,000 in salary he got in 2004, as well as the $8.4 million bonus.

This same issue reports on a couple in Pennsylvania who keep cutting their expenses in order to live within their shrinking income of $3,200 a month.

Oh, to be a CEO in the USA

Mercer Human Resources Consulting publishes a study of CEO salaries every so often. Here are some of their findings for 2004:

The median salary for an American CEO is far above that of the median salary for CEOs in just about every other country. Here it’s $2.3 million a year. In England it’s a million less. In Sweden it’s only $386,000. In Asia it’s even worse: Japan $318,000, India $88,000. It would be interesting to know what a Chinese CEO earns.

The median salary and bonus for CEO’s rose 14.5% last year, while salaried employees saw a 3.4% increase.

The low raise for salaried employees was still greater than that for non-managerial workers, who account for 80% of the workforce; they saw an increase of only 2.7%. If you factor inflation in, their raise goes to zero.

We need board members who can make rational decisions relative to compensation and stockholders who will hold board members accountable.

A Fatwa I Agree With

500 British Muslem religious leaders have issued a fatwa which expresses condolences to the families of the victims of the atrocity and wishes the injured a speedy recovery.

Most important, the fatwa states that Islam condemns the use of violence and the destruction of innocent lives and says suicide bombings are "vehemently prohibited".

Economic Recovery?

The unemployment rate is based on the number of people looking for work, but at any one time there are a number of people who stop looking for work and, thus, are not considered unemployed. If you add these to the published unemployment rate, you always get a higher number. How high that number is no one knows.

But now comes Katharine Bradbury, Senior Economist at the Boston Federal Reserve. She has studied labor participation rates over economic cycles from January 1948 through February 2005. Her numbers show that the labor force has been especially hard hit in the most recent recession; labor has suffered more than in previous cycles.

There are fewer people in the labor force as of February 2005 than you would expect when comparing economic cycles. She feels that the lower participation rate could between 1 and 3 percentage points to the published 5.4% of last winter, resulting in a real unemployment rate of between 6.4 and 8.4%. Not exactly the booming recovery we hear so much about.

China and Latin America

This month’s issue of the Strategic Studies Newsletter, a publication of the Army War College, features an article on China’s moves in Latin America, which is now China’s principal source of supply outside Asia. In 2003 it spent 77% of its non-Asia funds there. (I suspect they spend most of the rest in Canada, where they have invested heavily in the oil fields there.) They’re moving in with joint ventures and direct investments.

As with CNOOC’s potential investment in Unocal this could be a move that bolsters peace, as China is unlikely to jeopardize things when they have so much at stake. But the issue for the US is how to ensure that peace is the result. We need to start considering the issue now.

If you can't be CEO, be a board member

The average annual compensation for a director of a Fortune 200 company is $176,000. This is for a company that has not defrauded its investors nor declared bankruptcy.

Well, the directors of Enron, who actually run the company in lieu of a management team, just voted themselves a raise. The only full-time director is now paid $1,200,000 annually. The Vice Chairman gets $420,000 while the three other directors receive $300,000 a year. Not a bad deal.

A new theory of suicide bombers?

The latest issue of The American Conservative has an interesting interview with Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago. Pape has written a book, “Dying to Win: The Logic of Suicide Terrorists”, that he claims is based on a study of just about all of the suicide bombings that occurred from 1980 to early 2004. His conclusion is that the basic reason for the attacks is not religious; it is the desire to remove foreign troops from your soil.

As my son points out, there were no foreign troops at the World Trade Center on September 11 or in downtown London on July 7. These events are not discussed in the interview, but they certainly make one question Pape’s thesis.

Perhaps the truth lies on both sides – religion and ouster of foreigners- as it usually does.

21st century warfare

You really should look at the latest posting on Intel Dump.

Here's a quote from the author's conclusion:

“Keeping up starts with the realization that, if we believe we’re the center of the world, and that all roads lead to English and western culture, we’re not going to get to be on top for long. Mandarin Chinese is the second most-spoken language on the internet. Does anyone really believe that it’s going to stay second for long? And what language will it be after Mandarin? Let’s get ahead and stop playing catch-up.”

Welcome to Neverland, PA

Rick Santorum is another resident of a Neverland of his own making.His most recent visit was made in his response to his earlier claim that Boston’s liberalism nurtured an environment that made the clergy abuse possible. There was no consideration of whether the priests of Boston and around the world who violated young boys and girls might, in fact, be of the conservative persuasion. Nor did he acknowledge that these assaults also took place in such liberal bastions as Arizona, West Virginia and a heck of a lot more of the so-called red states.

Add to this

• his disgusting behavior in the Schiavo case, where, as Barney Frank, says Santorum “claims to have had eye contact with a blind woman”,


• his linking of ''man on child" and ''man on dog" sex with homosexuality,


• his comparing the Democrats blocking President Bush's judicial nominees to Hitler,


• his diatribes against two-income families,

And you wind up with another idiot who thinks he might be president some day.

The New and the Old at Morgan Stanley

John Mack, the new head of Morgan Stanley, moved very quickly to correct an error made by the Morgan directors in guaranteeing him $25,000,000 in compensation. He did the right thing and decided to have his pay set after the results of what will hopefully become a new Morgan Stanley are in.

The old Morgan Stanley continues to rack up the legal expenses. They now say that the expenses relative to the Perelman case could exceed $1.2 billion. This is in addition to the judicial award of $1.45 billion to Perelman. And to think that Purcell could have settled the case for $20,000,000!

Democracy wins another

It happened again here on Martha’s Vineyard. A government agency listened to the people and changed a policy it had just put in place. Last October it was the Oak Bluffs Selectmen who, after a round of letters to the editor, decided a roundabout was a waste of money. This month it was the Refuse District.

The district decided to adopt a single fee for dumping one’s trash, no matter whether one was dropping a small bag or a large barrel. When editorials and letters pointed out that this would create a health hazard (as people would store their trash until it filled a barrel) as well as make it difficult for the elderly to manipulate a full barrel, the district listened and promulgated a new policy to go into effect immediately.

Leaving Gaza

In a little over a month Israel will have moved the settlers from Gaza. You might wonder why they will need 45,000 soldiers to move 9,000 people. I also wondered about that until I recalled my visit to Israel 30 years ago.

On that visit we drove out of Jerusalem on a road that was surrounded by desert as far as you could see. However, after a short while, you could see a small patch of green many miles ahead. As you got closer, the patch got larger and larger. When we reached the patch, it seemed as though the settlers there had made the desert bloom. From there you could see desert all the way back to Jerusalem. For millennia this area had been a parched, uninhabited wasteland. These people brought the area to life.

I’ve always thought of myself as a hard worker; many of my associates are also very hard workers. But, I could not conceive of anyone I knew going through the really super-human exertions to create that patch of green.

So, if the creation of the settlements in Gaza required the same sacrifice and effort, I can easily imagine why it would take an army to get the people to leave.

Herold Noel, Hero

You really should listen to this. It’s the story of Herold Noel, a veteran of Iraq, who is “fighting his second war – a mental war”, a war against post traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD), a war that he “will be fighting all” his life. I think that the first time I heard about PTSD was 30 years ago when the Vietnam vets started reporting their post-war troubles. Now, it’s starting again.

Noel is an example of the talent that is hidden in so many people and seldom gets a chance to express itself. He’s only 25 but tells his story with a simple mastery that is heart-moving. He has devoted his life to speaking out for himself and his fellow veterans who gave their all in the war but now need help after the war.

He joined the Army at 19 as a way to achieve the American dream. He was determined to leave the drug- and crime-infested streets of his Brooklyn neighborhood. He served as a driver of a fuel truck. When he came back, he found that this experience was not enough to get a job driving a truck in New York or, in fact, getting any sort of job. So, he lost his kids, had problems with his wife and was homeless. He drank to stop the pain. Eventually he reached the point of attempted suicide, but was too drunk to go through with it.

The next day, someone from an organization called Black Veterans for Social Justice, gave him money to buy his kids Christmas presents. And that was the start of his journey back. Another organization, Operation Truth, was a conduit to an anonymous donor paying for an apartment for Herold and his wife for a year. Now, he has devoted his life to advocating for help for himself and his fellow veterans. He spoke before a Congressional committee in support of a bill to help those with PTSD. And he spoke with assurance, with honesty, frankly and movingly – without notes. His message was simple: Honor the living as well as we honor the dead.

He still carries in his jeep the magazines (the gun kind) that carried the clips which killed eight people. He wants to “give a life back by giving someone hope for life”.

Striking at the West again?

There were six bomb blasts in London today. At least one involved a bus that appears to be have been driven by someone other than the bus driver. As of now the casualty list is at 160. IRA? Al Qaeda? A new bunch of very angry and very nasty people? No one has claimed credit, but certainly it's a statement re the G-8 summit.

The stock market will likely take another hit today. And a lot of other bad things will occur today, for the world is a dangerous place. Some of us will be in an auto accident or get the news of a fatal illness or die today. Others will be robbed, assaulted, divorced. Hurricane season has begun; many will see their homes damaged; many will be injured; it will be a very scary event.

Life itself can be very scary, but we go on. We can't spend our life trying to avoid all bad things; Mother Nature will eventually win out even if it takes her all of our life to do so. Clearly, we take all reasonable steps to avoid real danger, aware that risk is always with us. Some things we try will not work.

There will be another terrorist attack on the US. Do we stop living because of this? I'm reminded of the poem, "Still I Rise" by Maya Angelou. While on the surface it is about the enslavement of blacks, it applies to all of us, no matter our color.

You may write me down in history
With your bitter, twisted lies,
You may trod me in the very dirt
But still, like dust, I'll rise.

Does my sassiness upset you?
Why are you beset with gloom?
'Cause I walk like I've got oil wells
Pumping in my living room.

Just like moons and like suns,
With the certainty of tides,
Just like hopes springing high,
Still I'll rise.

Did you want to see me broken?
Bowed head and lowered eyes?
Shoulders falling down like teardrops.
Weakened by my soulful cries.

Does my haughtiness offend you?
Don't you take it awful hard
'Cause I laugh like I've got gold mines
Diggin' in my own back yard.

You may shoot me with your words,
You may cut me with your eyes,
You may kill me with your hatefulness,
But still, like air, I'll rise.

Does my sexiness upset you?
Does it come as a surprise
That I dance like I've got diamonds
At the meeting of my thighs?

Out of the huts of history's shame
I rise
Up from a past that's rooted in pain
I rise
I'm a black ocean, leaping and wide,
Welling and swelling I bear in the tide.
Leaving behind nights of terror and fear
I rise
Into a daybreak that's wondrously clear
I rise
Bringing the gifts that my ancestors gave,
I am the dream and the hope of the slave.
I rise
I rise
I rise.

Moving from one blog to another

Reading Philip Carter's Intel Dump blog tonight I was struck by the following quote from Bobby's World.

"But too many of our leaders-- both military and non-military-- do not understand this fundamental difference between a guerrilla war and a maneuver war. They look to the old way to find solutions to new problems, while failing to comprehend the important differences that must be taken into account. For the military, that means a preference for "kinetic, technological solutions" and "large-scale decisive maneuver based on operational shock" (to quote Aussie Lt. Col. David Kilcullen) when we should instead be focusing upon a politically-based, intelligence-driven action that supports information operations and targets the enemy's strategy. For the NGOs, looking to the past means believing that the Geneva Convention and historic neutrality will provide them protection on the battlefield when, in fact, they do not understand that their activities-- even those as benign as feeding a child or teaching a little girl to read-- are inherently NOT neutral to the enemies of Afghanistan and that they are therefore being deliberately targeted by an enemy who never agreed to the Geneva Convention and would never do so in the future." (my emphasis)

Mr. Fu Speaks

And in The Wall Street Journal, no less.

Mr. Fu Chengyu, CEO of CNOOC, the Chinese company that has made an offer for Unocal, has an op-ed piece entitled, "Why Is America Worried?". The piece lays out some fairly strong arguments for the acquisition of Unocal.

His basic argument is simple: this is a normal business transaction and should be evaluated as such. He goes on to point out that 70% of Unocal's oil and gas reserves are in Asia and are committed under long term contracts primarily to Asian nations. He claims that CNOOC will keep in the US the oil that Unocal extracts from the Gulf of Mexico. So, we have nothing to fear about losing oil to China; in fact we may get more oil out of the Gulf than we currently do. Further, he agrees to abide by any reasonable decision of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US to divest any assets that do not harm CNOOC's core interests in this deal.

And, finally, CNOOC needs UNOCAL's people. Chevron, the other bidder for UNOCAL, has already announced that it will cut jobs. Mr. Fu says he will not.

He has some strong arguments, but does not use one which should impress even our congressmen: engaging China more, particularly via a major US company, will likely result in greater liberalization in that country.

First textiles, then cars, then?

Chinese cars are now for sale in Europe. A Dutch dealer was shipped 200 SUVs made by Jiangling Motors. The dealer expects to sell 2000 this year. He will sell them for about half the price of the nearest competitor. Interestingly, the engines are made by General Motors and Mitsubishi.

In a couple of weeks, Chinese compact cars will be on sale in Europe. A sales target of 10,000 has been set for this year.

And next year Chinese cars come to the USA.

Vindictive? I'd say so

Patrick Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor in the "CIA outing" by Robert Novak, seems like a vindictive guy. After Time turned over all their documents relative to Matthew Cooper's reporting, he still needs Cooper's testimony. And then he had this to say about Judith Miller, "Certainly one who can handle the desert in wartime," he added, referring to Ms. Miller's role in covering the war in Iraq, "is far better equipped than the average person jailed in a federal facility."

Again, the question is what is happening to the guy who made the first revelation? Robert Novak?

Who's controlling the game?

Bahrain, Pakistan, Egypt - Arab countries all. Yet the official representatives of each of these Arab countries have been attacked by the Arab Iraqi insurgents. It seems that each month brings a new approach by the insurgents.

When will we and our Iraqi supporters come up with a new approach?

It worked!

'It' is Nasa's deep impact project. It struck the Tempel 1 comet this morning. After the difficulties of the past few years, Nasa must be proud today - and justifiably so on this day symbolizing America's potential.

Classify this!

I guess if we’re at war we have to expect a rise in an emphasis on secrecy, which, among other things, means an increase in the number of classified documents. But, we seem to be going overboard in creating classified documents. Since 2001, the number of classified documents (according to an obscure federal agency called Information Security Oversight Office) has almost doubled. Guess how many documents were classified last year? 15,600,000, the classification of which cost us over $400 each for a total of $7.2 billion in one year.

Blaming this phenomenal rise on 9/11 doesn’t wash with Tom Kean, chair of the 9/11 commission. As the commission found, the problem re 9/11 was lack of sharing of information, not leaks of sensitive information. A quote from Kean: “The best ally we have in protecting ourselves against terrorism is an informed public.”

With any bureaucracy you do get weird things happening. Some examples:

the CIA is in court to prevent their budgets of the 1950s and 1960s being revealed. Wasn’t it a different world in the 1950s? Wasn’t Russia the bad guy? Wasn’t it a very different CIA?

The Defense Intelligence Agency deleted a comment that Pinochet was interested in fencing, boxing and horseback riding and that he was a conservative. Vital information that!

The Justice Department blacked out a few lines from a published Supreme Court decision. Duh!

Even the head of the Information Security Oversight Office complains about some of these inanities, “I’ve seen information that was classified that I’ve seen published in third grade textbooks.”

Somehow I don’t feel any safer knowing that we’re paying good money so someone can play spies.

Dream World

As I’ve said numerous times, one of this country’s primary problems is an unwillingness to face facts.

What do you think the response from those living in other countries would be to the question, “Suppose a young person who wanted to leave this country ask you to recommend where to go to lead a good life – what country would you recommend?”

The Pew Research Center asked this question of 17,000 people in a variety of countries – India, Poland, Canada, Germany, China, Russia, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Spain, Britain, France, Pakistan, Netherlands and Indonesia. Only those from India chose the US as their first pick. Australia and Canada were the top choices of most of the other countries.

Maybe people from other countries – at least those from Europe and Asia - no longer look to the US as a beacon of hope. However, I think that we are still a beacon of hope to the Latin American countries.

Here’s another example of our wishful thinking. In a review of Clyde Prestowiz’s new book, “Three Billion New Capitalists”, it is stated that our Grade 12 students rank in the lowest 10% in math studies, but the students rank first in their assessment of their own performance.

You can only live in a dream world for so long. Reality eventually intrudes.

Let's hope he's wrong

I really really hope that this is not what it sounds like. "This" being the murder of a relative of an Iraqi diplomat as reported today by the BBC.

It really is BIG

Everything about Boston's "Big Dig" seems to be on a scale that we mortals cannot imagine. The contractor has asked the state for $500,000 to copy documents requested by investigators. At a penny a page, that's 50,000,000 pages to be copied!

Fiction becomes reality?

In two days Tempel 1 will be a name people will be talking about. It's the comet that Nasa's Deep Impact spacecraft will be crashing into on July 4. Nasa's web site on this is pretty cool.

Another example of 21st century democracy in action

The shutdown of the Minnesota state government is another example of the inability of the current crop of politicians – both state and federal – to compromise. I’m sure that we’ll see more of this intransigence when the process to replace Justice O’Connor begins. I’ve heard that the GOP has allocated $18,000,000 for advertisements in this battle, while the Democrats are preparing as though they were going to war.

I’d like to say that this contretemps is largely because we have moved to professional politicians. In part it is. But Tip O’Neill and Arthur Vandenberg and Howard Baker and Sam Ervin were professional politicians and they realized the necessity of solving problems even if you don’t fully agree with the exact form of the solution. Maybe I’m just being a crotchety old man.

We need to change our politicians. However, this will never happen until we change the way voting districts are defined. Right now, they are defined solely to benefit the incumbents.

What is the function of mathematics?

In a post of June 21 (I guess 1 + 1 no longer equals 2) I commented on a textbook entitled "Rethinking Mathematics" which advances the cause of ethnomathematics, a theory of teaching math that posits the idea that math is not a universal language but is a function of one's culture. Chapter titles seemed to be from a social science rather than math textbook, e.g., Chicanos have math in their blood.

Here's a quote from the authors of the textbook: "Shouldn't educators suggest that math can help solve poverty, the AIDS crisis, global warming, overreliance on fossil fuels, and so many other vexing problems?" You can substitute virtually any study - English, science, history - in that sentence and it would still be stupidity.

We need a solid education in many things if education is to help people solve the problems listed as well as the basic problem of man living with the other inhabitants of this universe.

Just the facts, maam

Here's a fairly unbiased review of the 'facts' mentioned in Bush's speech last night. FactCheck.org seems to be living up to its name.

Confidential no more

Time’s Editor-in-Chief, Norman Pearlstein, in an editorial in a recent issue of Fortune, wrote, “We believe that we must protect our sources when we grant them confidentiality, an obligation we do not take lightly. We also believe we must resist government coercion.”

It looks like Time’s editor-in-chief will be overridden by Time’s lawyers and businesspeople as there are reports that their attorneys will be turning over to the government documents which reveal the confidential sources used by Matthew Cooper in the Valerie Plame case. This will set a precedent that most journalists and civil libertarians think dangerous.

Fortunately, the NY Times has not yet considered caving into the government’s demands. But, still, Time is a major force in American journalism and to have them cave is not a good sign.

Every day brings another surprise

The other day it was Newt Gingrich that surprised me. Today it’s William Safire. In an op-ed piece in today’s NY Times he mounts a very forceful defense of Judith Miller. You may recall that Miller has not been charged with any wrongdoing and, in fact, has written nothing about Valerie Palme. But she learned about the story from a confidential source and the government wants to know who that source is. Although Robert Novak actually wrote a story about Palme using confidential sources, the government has been silent about Mr. Novak.

In at least one way this ‘investigation’ reminds me of the Starr pursuit of Clinton – lots of money, time and talent wasted. Doesn’t the government have more important issues to work on?

This guy might be president?

I still can’t figure out what Governor Romney has done in his 2+ years in office in Massachusetts. I know he’s spoken out for his definition of American values, i.e., opposing gay marriage, abortion and stem cell research; you know the really important problems the state of Massachusetts is facing. He can ignore things like job losses, the demise of the state as an economic force as all of its signature companies are bought by outsiders, the impossibility of buying a house for something people can afford; you know the trivialities of life.

Now he’s established an office for faith-based groups and appointed his wife to head it. I don’t criticize him for following his president in forgetting about the separation of church and state on which this country was based for 200+ years. Nor do I fault him for establishing the 27^th state office for faith-based groups trying to milk the federal coffers (to which non-faith-based people contribute). Nor do I carp about the fact that his wife will earn no salary. I worry that this country has reached a point where such an idiot as Romney can be considered a possible presidential candidate for even one minute. But, then again, can we get any worse than the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?

Figures don't lie?

Would you believe that OPEC does not publish any ‘official’ figures as to its production? Any production and reserve numbers you see come from a company called Petrologistics. Its headquarters are over a grocery store in Geneva. It claims to get its numbers from spies in every OPEC port. Now, it helps a little bit in decision-making if you know what reality is. But, it appears as though we don’t know how much oil really exists in so-called proven reserves.

Can we believe the Saudis, who supposedly possess 25% of the world’s ‘proven’ reserves, that they can supply 20 million barrels of oil a day for the next 50 years? Interestingly, 90% of their production comes from fields discovered almost 40 years ago; all of these fields require extensive water injection to keep pumping at a good rate, which is a sign of old age in the oil field business.

If their numbers are wrong, what does that say about the energy situation going forward?

Find the Failed States Index

The failed states index can be found here. It's now up to 76 countries.

Newt and I

I never thought that I'd agree with Newt Gingrich on many things. But, if he really believes what he said on "This I Believe" on NPR, I'll have to change my opinion.

Here's what he said, "The gap between our civilization, our prosperity, our freedoms and all of those things is the quality of our leaders, the courage of our people, the willingness to face facts and the willingness to work for solutions -- solutions to energy, solutions to the environment, solutions to the economy, solutions to education and solutions to national security. We have real challenges, we have a wonderful country. We need to keep it, and to keep it we're going to have to learn these kinds of lessons. That's what I believe."

It's the unwillingness to face facts that is the fundamental problem in this country today.

Another impact of the CNOOC offer

It may have appeared elsewhere in the mainstream media but I haven’t seen it. That is, the words that I have been preaching in this blog for several months: “the US is no longer the only economic powerhouse”. But those words appeared in yesterday’s editorial in the New York Times. The editorial pointed out that China bashing will not reduce China’s economic importance in the world. We have to take actions to make sure we stay prosperous, safe and healthy, actions like reducing our dependence on oil, living more within our means, educating our kids better. You know, the common sense things that made this country great.

Now when will the Times also start editorializing about the growing economic power of India and Brazil?

A sign of the times?

Almost all of my male cousins served in WWII. While they were all proud of their service and of their country's participation in the war, they seldom spoke of their experiences in that war. Most of them had seen quite severe combat as teenagers, but you wouldn't know it from their conversations.

Not surprisingly, they have been dying off over the past several years and none of them has had a military funeral (i.e., military personnel play taps, fold the flag and present it to the veteran's survivors). Yesterday, I went to the funeral of another of these veterans and was surprised to see that it was a military funeral. Walter was as quiet as my other cousins with regard to his war service. While politically conservative, he was by no means jingoist. Yet, his coffin was draped with the flag and taps were played.

I wonder whether other veterans of all our wars also have a military funeral now. Is this another artifact of our times - i.e., the war against terror, the us vs. them mentality that this country is developing?

Biden at Brookings

Some conservative commentators think that Senator Biden’s speech at the Brookings Institution on Tuesday was overly political and negative. I wonder if they have read it. Biden seems to me an American who really wants us to succeed in Iraq. I’ve long held that the way to success is:

• Acknowledge your problems


• Figure out a strategy to overcome these problems


• Measure the success of your strategy and be prepared to change if the strategy is not working.

And Biden was taking the first two steps – problem acknowledgement and planning – and laying out a unit of measure for the third step.

Some illustrations of the problem:

• Only 3 of the 107 Iraqi battalions being trained are completely independent of our troops and another 27 are on the verge. 77 are not capable of acting on their own or in concert with us.


• Only $6 billion of the $18.4 billion authorized for reconstruction in 2003 has been spent, almost two years later and 40% of that has been spent not on reconstruction but on Iraqi security forces.


• Sewage is all over the place.


• The American public is losing faith in the war.

It is not enough for Biden to acknowledge the problem. It is imperative that the Administration do so and let the people know that they realize America has a problem. To quote Biden, “Tell them the truth, tell them what you need, tell them how hard it will be and they, if they believe you’re leveling with them, will give you the resources to have a shot at getting it done.”

Biden thinks we need to get results in four areas – security, governance and politics, reconstruction and burden-sharing. He feels we should accept the offers of help that have come from France, Germany and NATO and make sure that the pledges of $13 billion in aid made in 2003 come through.

The recommendation that has caused the most consternation is the establishment of benchmarks and the periodic reporting of progress towards those benchmarks. A basic management axiom is “You can’t manage if you don’t measure”. I know this is the world of politics, not business, but common sense applies in both spheres. Let’s hope our government starts using a little common sense.

Another $300 million

Yesterday was not a good day for Morgan Stanley. They were ordered to pay Perelman $123 million in interest on the $1.45 billion award. And they settled with Parmalat for $188 million to get rid of charges that Morgan Stanley knew that Parmalat was on the ropes even as they helped the company raise money here and abroad.

What year are we living in?

Today's Boston Globe echoes a feeling I've had for quite a while - we are living in a version of Orwell's 1984.

Cut and Run? No

David Brooks in today’s NY Times argues against leaving Iraq now. Despite my belief in the errors leading to this war, I think he’s right. But, we need to get straight information from the administration. Here’s how he concludes his column:

“Biden's speech brought to mind something Franklin Roosevelt told the country on Feb. 23, 1942: "Your government has unmistakable confidence in your ability to hear the worst, without flinching or losing heart. You must, in turn, have complete confidence that your government is keeping nothing from you except information that will help the enemy in his attempt to destroy us." (my emphasis)

That's how democracies should fight, even in the age of polling.“

Abstinence or Public Broadcasting?

I guess today is the day when the House votes on the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) budget. If I heard right, the president (certainly not the chairman) of CPB would be happy with the restoration of a planned $100,000,000 cut. In federal budget terms this is chickenfeed. Heck, it’s half of what is being planned for our government’s abstinence program. If one were comparing ROIs (returns on investment), deciding between PBS and abstinence for teenagers would be a no brainer. The $200 million to keep teenagers ‘pure’ is, in my judgment, money wasted; whereas PBS really meets the needs of a heck of a lot of people - liberal, conservative and in between. In fact, the listeners of PBS are just about equally divided among these three camps.

I’ve received several e-mails asking me to join the campaign to maintain the budget of CPB. The problem is that I live in Massachusetts. I know my Congressman, Bill Delahunt, and my Senators, Kennedy and Kerry, will do the right thing. Perhaps, if you live in a state where your representatives are on the fence on this issue, you’re calling them might have an effect.

Dawn is coming?

Gee, some people are beginning to wake up. The Energy Secretary, Sam Bodman, wants to convene the Committee for Foreign Investment in the U.S. to look at the bid by Cnooc, the smallest of the state-owned Chinese oil companies, to buy Unocal, whose board has already agreed to be acquired by Chevron. Today the Senate Finance Committee is holding hearings on our economic relationship with China.

Of course, not a word was said when Lenovo bought IBM’s PC business earlier this year or when Haier put in a bid for Maytag last week. Is it only if the deal is above $15 billion (Cnooc is offering $18.5 billion) or is in the oil industry that the government will realize there is a problem looming here in our changing world?

This latest and largest bid moves China from a passive investor in bonds of our government to an active investor in some of our vital industries.

What ever happened to rainbows?

When I was a kid, we'd see at least a couple of rainbows each month in the summer. Today I saw my first rainbow in years. Why do you suppose that is?