Another Screwed Up System

That's the Iraq Reconstruction Management System. It was started four years ago with the intent that it would be the repository for all reconstruction and non-reconstruction project data from the U.S. implementing agencies. But the system does not have much information about a lot of the projects. Even today the Department of State and AID do not enter much information about the projects under their control. Will we ever get an accurate accounting of the $42+ billion we've already invested in reconstruction?

$24 billion is a lot of money

That's how much Americans spent on the health care of their pets in 2006. That's more than the GDP of some countries. Some of the treatments were acupuncture, aromatherapy, behavior counseling, root canal and chemotherapy. I wonder how the application of these treatments differs between animal and people. Will this kind of spending continue as the economy tanks?

Inside a Subprime Pool

Roger Lowenstein was able to watch Moody's value a subprime pool and gives an eye-shattering view of the process. Rather, I should say a mind boggling view as all rationality and analysis seems to have gone out the window.

The pool consisted of 2,393 mortgages with a face value of $430,000,000. Some issues that should have concerned Moody's:

• 75% of the mortgages carried an adjustable rate
• 43% of the borrowers did not provide written proof of their income
• Almost half had a second mortgage.

The analyst had one day to rate this offering. Given the above three points, that should have been more than enough time to say no. But, hey, Moody's would not have gotten the fee from the investment bank that requested the rating. So, Moody's gave twelve different ratings to the package, from AAA to BA1. Less than two years later - after Moody's had downgraded 5,000 of these pools - this particular pool could boast that 27% of the mortgages were delinquent.

Lowenstein does not think that only the rating agencies are at fault. Securities regulators, such as the SEC, outsourced their regulatory functions to "officially designated rating agencies". But, still it was the ratings agencies that decided to negotiate with their customers, investment banks, as to what the rating should be. It was the rating agencies that rated securities using mathematics rather than common sense. It was the rating agencies who did not understand the dramatic changes in the financial world.

Clearly, the ratings agencies are responsible for a large part of our current situation.

Reality from Iacocca

The guys with whom I grew up and I have very different political views. Usually, they send me right wing propaganda and I reciprocate with a response demonstrating - at least in my own mind - how ridiculous the propaganda is. Today, however, I received the following from one of my friends and was amazed to find that I just about totally agreed with Mr. Iacocca and my friend.

You really should read this and send it to your friends.

Excerpt Where Have All the Leaders Gone? By Lee Iacocca with Catherine Whitney I Had Enough? Am I the only guy in this country who's fed up with what's happening? Where the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder. We've got a gang of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we've got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can't even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, "Stay the course." Stay the course? You've got to be kidding. This is America, not the damned Titanic. I'll give you a sound bite: Throw the bums out! You might think I'm getting senile, that I've gone off my rocker, and maybe I have. But someone has to speak up. I hardly recognize this country anymore. The President of the United States is given a free pass to ignore the Constitution, tap our phones, and lead us to war on a pack of lies. Congress responds to record deficits by passing a huge tax cut for the wealthy (thanks, but I don't need it). The most famous business leaders are not the innovators but the guys in handcuffs. While we're fiddling in Iraq, the Middle East is burning and nobody seems to know what to do. And the press is waving pom-poms instead of asking hard questions. That's not the promise of America my parents and yours traveled across the ocean for. I've had enough. How about you? I'll go a step further. You can't call yourself a patriot if you're not outraged. This is a fight I'm ready and willing to have. My friends tell me to calm down. They say, "Lee, you're eighty-two years old. Leave the rage to the young people." I'd love to—as soon as I can pry them away from their iPods for five seconds and get them to pay attention. I'm going to speak up because it's my patriotic duty. I think people will listen to me. They say I have a reputation as a straight shooter. So I'll tell you how I see it, and it's not pretty, but at least it's real. I'm hoping to strike a nerve in those young folks who say they don't vote because they don't trust politicians to represent their interests. Hey, America, wake up. These guys work for us. Who Are These Guys, Anyway? Why are we in this mess? How did we end up with this crowd in Washington? Well, we voted for them—or at least some of us did. But I'll tell you what we didn't do. We didn't agree to suspend the Constitution. We didn't agree to stop asking questions or demanding answers. Some of us are sick and tired of people who call free speech treason. Where I come from that's a dictatorship, not a democracy. And don't tell me it's all the fault of right-wing Republicans or liberal Democrats. That's an intellectually lazy argument, and it's part of the reason we're in this stew. We're not just a nation of factions. We're a people. We share common principles and ideals. And we rise and fall together. Where are the voices of leaders who can inspire us to action and make us stand taller? What happened to the strong and resolute party of Lincoln? What happened to the courageous, populist party of FDR and Truman? There was a time in this country when the voices of great leaders lifted us up and made us want to do better. Where have all the leaders gone? The Test of a Leader I've never been Commander in Chief, but I've been a CEO. I understand a few things about leadership at the top. I've figured out nine points—not ten (I don't want people accusing me of thinking I'm Moses). I call them the "Nine Cs of Leadership." They're not fancy or complicated. Just clear, obvious qualities that every true leader should have. We should look at how the current administration stacks up. Like it or not, this crew is going to be around until January 2009. Maybe we can learn something before we go to the polls in 2008. Then let's be sure we use the leadership test to screen the candidates who say they want to run the country. It's up to us to choose wisely. So, here's my C list: A leader has to show CURIOSITY. He has to listen to people outside of the "Yes, sir" crowd in his inner circle. He has to read voraciously, because the world is a big, complicated place. George W. Bush brags about never reading a newspaper. "I just scan the headlines," he says. Am I hearing this right? He's the President of the United States and he never reads a newspaper? Thomas Jefferson once said, "Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate for a moment to prefer the latter." Bush disagrees. As long as he gets his daily hour in the gym, with Fox News piped through the sound system, he's ready to go. If a leader never steps outside his comfort zone to hear different ideas, he grows stale. If he doesn't put his beliefs to the test, how does he know he's right? The inability to listen is a form of arrogance. It means either you think you already know it all, or you just don't care. Before the 2006 election, George Bush made a big point of saying he didn't listen to the polls. Yeah, that's what they all say when the polls stink. But maybe he should have listened, because 70 percent of the people were saying he was on the wrong track. It took a "thumping" on election day to wake him up, but even then you got the feeling he wasn't listening so much as he was calculating how to do a better job of convincing everyone he was right. A leader has to be CREATIVE, go out on a limb, be willing to try something different. You know, think outside the box. George Bush prides himself on never changing, even as the world around him is spinning out of control. God forbid someone should accuse him of flip-flopping. There's a disturbingly messianic fervor to his certainty. Senator Joe Biden recalled a conversation he had with Bush a few months after our troops marched into Baghdad. Joe was in the Oval Office outlining his concerns to the President—the explosive mix of Shiite and Sunni, the disbanded Iraqi army, the problems securing the oil fields. "The President was serene," Joe recalled. "He told me he was sure that we were on the right course and that all would be well. 'Mr. President,' I finally said, 'how can you be so sure when you don't yet know all the facts?'" Bush then reached over and put a steadying hand on Joe's shoulder. "My instincts," he said. "My instincts." Joe was flabbergasted. He told Bush, "Mr. President, your instincts aren't good enough." Joe Biden sure didn't think the matter was settled. And, as we all know now, it wasn't. Leadership is all about managing change—whether you're leading a company or leading a country. Things change, and you get creative. You adapt. Maybe Bush was absent the day they covered that at Harvard Business School. A leader has to COMMUNICATE. I'm not talking about running off at the mouth or spouting sound bites. I'm talking about facing reality and telling the truth. Nobody in the current administration seems to know how to talk straight anymore. Instead, they spend most of their time trying to convince us that things are not really as bad as they seem. I don't know if it's denial or dishonesty, but it can start to drive you crazy after a while. Communication has to start with telling the truth, even when it's painful. The war in Iraq has been, among other things, a grand failure of communication. Bush is like the boy who didn't cry wolf when the wolf was at the door. After years of being told that all is well, even as the casualties and chaos mount, we've stopped listening to him. A leader has to be a person of CHARACTER. That means knowing the difference between right and wrong and having the guts to do the right thing. Abraham Lincoln once said, "If you want to test a man's character, give him power." George Bush has a lot of power. What does it say about his character? Bush has shown a willingness to take bold action on the world stage because he has the power, but he shows little regard for the grievous consequences. He has sent our troops (not to mention hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi citizens) to their deaths—for what? To build our oil reserves? To avenge his daddy because Saddam Hussein once tried to have him killed? To show his daddy he's tougher? The motivations behind the war in Iraq are questionable, and the execution of the war has been a disaster. A man of character does not ask a single soldier to die for a failed policy. A leader must have COURAGE. I'm talking about balls. (That even goes for female leaders.) Swagger isn't courage. Tough talk isn't courage. George Bush comes from a blue-blooded Connecticut family, but he likes to talk like a cowboy. You know, My gun is bigger than your gun. Courage in the twenty-first century doesn't mean posturing and bravado. Courage is a commitment to sit down at the negotiating table and talk. If you're a politician, courage means taking a position even when you know it will cost you votes. Bush can't even make a public appearance unless the audience has been handpicked and sanitized. He did a series of so-called town hall meetings last year, in auditoriums packed with his most devoted fans. The questions were all softballs. To be a leader you've got to have CONVICTION—a fire in your belly. You've got to have passion. You've got to really want to get something done. How do you measure fire in the belly? Bush has set the all-time record for number of vacation days taken by a U.S. President—four hundred and counting. He'd rather clear brush on his ranch than immerse himself in the business of governing. He even told an interviewer that the high point of his presidency so far was catching a seven-and-a-half-pound perch in his hand-stocked lake. It's no better on Capitol Hill. Congress was in session only ninety-seven days in 2006. That's eleven days less than the record set in 1948, when President Harry Truman coined the term do-nothing Congress. Most people would expect to be fired if they worked so little and had nothing to show for it. But Congress managed to find the time to vote itself a raise. Now, that's not leadership. A leader should have CHARISMA. I'm not talking about being flashy. Charisma is the quality that makes people want to follow you. It's the ability to inspire. People follow a leader because they trust him. That's my definition of charisma. Maybe George Bush is a great guy to hang out with at a barbecue or a ball game. But put him at a global summit where the future of our planet is at stake, and he doesn't look very presidential. Those frat-boy pranks and the kidding around he enjoys so much don't go over that well with world leaders. Just ask German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who received an unwelcome shoulder massage from our President at a G-8 Summit. When he came up behind her and started squeezing, I thought she was going to go right through the roof. A leader has to be COMPETENT. That seems obvious, doesn't it? You've got to know what you're doing. More important than that, you've got to surround yourself with people who know what they're doing. Bush brags about being our first MBA President. Does that make him competent? Well, let's see. Thanks to our first MBA President, we've got the largest deficit in history, Social Security is on life support, and we've run up a half-a-trillion-dollar price tag (so far) in Iraq. And that's just for starters. A leader has to be a problem solver, and the biggest problems we face as a nation seem to be on the back burner. You can't be a leader if you don't have COMMON SENSE. I call this Charlie Beacham's rule. When I was a young guy just starting out in the car business, one of my first jobs was as Ford's zone manager in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. My boss was a guy named Charlie Beacham, who was the East Coast regional manager. Charlie was a big Southerner, with a warm drawl, a huge smile, and a core of steel. Charlie used to tell me, "Remember, Lee, the only thing you've got going for you as a human being is your ability to reason and your common sense. If you don't know a dip of horseshit from a dip of vanilla ice cream, you'll never make it." George Bush doesn't have common sense. He just has a lot of sound bites. You know—Mr.they'll-welcome-us-as-liberators-no-child-left-behind-heck-of-a-job-Brownie-mission-accomplished Bush. Former President Bill Clinton once said, "I grew up in an alcoholic home. I spent half my childhood trying to get into the reality-based world—and I like it here." I think our current President should visit the real world once in a while. The Biggest C is Crisis Leaders are made, not born. Leadership is forged in times of crisis. It's easy to sit there with your feet up on the desk and talk theory. Or send someone else's kids off to war when you've never seen a battlefield yourself. It's another thing to lead when your world comes tumbling down. On September 11, 2001, we needed a strong leader more than any other time in our history. We needed a steady hand to guide us out of the ashes. Where was George Bush? He was reading a story about a pet goat to kids in Florida when he heard about the attacks. He kept sitting there for twenty minutes with a baffled look on his face. It's all on tape. You can see it for yourself. Then, instead of taking the quickest route back to Washington and immediately going on the air to reassure the panicked people of this country, he decided it wasn't safe to return to the White House. He basically went into hiding for the day—and he told Vice President Dick Cheney to stay put in his bunker. We were all frozen in front of our TVs, scared out of our wits, waiting for our leaders to tell us that we were going to be okay, and there was nobody home. It took Bush a couple of days to get his bearings and devise the right photo op at Ground Zero. That was George Bush's moment of truth, and he was paralyzed. And what did he do when he'd regained his composure? He led us down the road to Iraq—a road his own father had considered disastrous when he was President. But Bush didn't listen to Daddy. He listened to a higher father. He prides himself on being faith based, not reality based. If that doesn't scare the crap out of you, I don't know what will. A Hell of a Mess So here's where we stand. We're immersed in a bloody war with no plan for winning and no plan for leaving. We're running the biggest deficit in the history of the country. We're losing the manufacturing edge to Asia, while our once-great companies are getting slaughtered by health care costs. Gas prices are skyrocketing, and nobody in power has a coherent energy policy. Our schools are in trouble. Our borders are like sieves. The middle class is being squeezed every which way. These are times that cry out for leadership. But when you look around, you've got to ask: "Where have all the leaders gone?" Where are the curious, creative communicators? Where are the people of character, courage, conviction, competence, and common sense? I may be a sucker for alliteration, but I think you get the point. Name me a leader who has a better idea for homeland security than making us take off our shoes in airports and throw away our shampoo? We've spent billions of dollars building a huge new bureaucracy, and all we know how to do is react to things that have already happened. Name me one leader who emerged from the crisis of Hurricane Katrina. Congress has yet to spend a single day evaluating the response to the hurricane, or demanding accountability for the decisions that were made in the crucial hours after the storm. Everyone's hunkering down, fingers crossed, hoping it doesn't happen again. Now, that's just crazy. Storms happen. Deal with it. Make a plan. Figure out what you're going to do the next time. Name me an industry leader who is thinking creatively about how we can restore our competitive edge in manufacturing. Who would have believed that there could ever be a time when "the Big Three" referred to Japanese car companies? How did this happen—and more important, what are we going to do about it? Name me a government leader who can articulate a plan for paying down the debt, or solving the energy crisis, or managing the health care problem. The silence is deafening. But these are the crises that are eating away at our country and milking the middle class dry. I have news for the gang in Congress. We didn't elect you to sit on your asses and do nothing and remain silent while our democracy is being hijacked and our greatness is being replaced with mediocrity. What is everybody so afraid of? That some bobblehead on Fox News will call them a name? Give me a break. Why don't you guys show some spine for a change? Had Enough? Hey, I'm not trying to be the voice of gloom and doom here. I'm trying to light a fire. I'm speaking out because I have hope. I believe in America. In my lifetime I've had the privilege of living through some of America's greatest moments. I've also experienced some of our worst crises—the Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Kennedy assassination, the Vietnam War, the 1970s oil crisis, and the struggles of recent years culminating with 9/11. If I've learned one thing, it's this: You don't get anywhere by standing on the sidelines waiting for somebody else to take action. Whether it's building a better car or building a better future for our children, we all have a role to play. That's the challenge I'm raising in this book. It's a call to action for people who, like me, believe in America. It's not too late, but it's getting pretty close. So let's shake off the horseshit and go to work. Let's tell 'em all we've had enough. Excerpted from Where Have All the Leaders Gone?. Copyright © 2007 by Lee Iacocca. All rights reserved.

Where Have All the Leaders Gone? by Iacocca, Lee List Price: $25.00 Hardcover

Our Violent World

I know that there have been a number of shootings on school grounds, be they colleges, high schools and probably even elementary schools. But the idea that students should be allowed to carry concealed weapons boggles my mind. Yet in at least one university there is a group, Students for Concealed Carry on Campus, that is pushing for this.

It is ironic that the university is Virginia Tech, site of one of the school shootings. Maybe, if I were a student at the school, I might be worried that it may occur again (although the odds against this happening are staggeringly high). But why I would want to be on a college campus where my roommate might carry a gun is beyond me.

In an even more bizarre twist to this episode one of the speakers at an event sponsored by this group was one Eric Thompson, the gun dealer who supplied the weapons used in both the Virgina Tech and Northern Illinois shootings. Talk about sensitivity, understanding and compassion!

Conspiracy Theory?

I'm not one to readily believe in secret conspiracies that control the world. But, an article by Kevin Phillips in The Washington Independent causes me to question my naivete. I had never heard of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets although it's been around for twenty years. Phillips doesn't really know what this group does but he alludes to a number of things related to attempts to stabilize the markets, including the direct buying of securities and other assets by the federal government.

The thing that raised my hackles was the assertion that the Group "has declined to submit to the federal Freedom of Information Act or to testify in detail before Congress" plus the current head of the group is our Treasury Secretary, Mr. Paulson, and one member is Mr. Bernanke.

As fas as I know, Phillips is not a nutter. He seems to be an intelligent, thoughtful Republican. Maybe there is something in what he says.

I hope that there is money for another bottle of champagne

The Navy christened its first littoral combat ship in September 2006. Unfortunately, the launch did not go well as the ship has yet to see service; in fact, it's still in the same spot where the christening took place. This is simply an example of the problems the military has had acquiring new weapons systems.

There have been several problems that have caused the Freedom, the ship referred to above, to stay put for almost two years:

• For some unknown reason other than blind faith, the Navy decided to build this ship by modifying the design of a high-speed commercial ferry.
• No one vetted the assumption that such a ferry could be adapted for a new use and whether, if it could be adapted, the adaption could be done on time and within budget.
• The company selected to build the ship, Lockheed, had never built a ship.
• This was a cost plus contract so that the final price will be more than double the original. Of course, you and I will pony up the difference.
• The Navy changed the rules in medias res.
• Originally, the Navy's oversight of the project was minimal. It later improved but without the benefit of experienced supervisors. Fewer and fewer government employees are trained systems engineers.
• A misread drawing caused a 6 month delay.

Politics and war have a lot in common

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What won't she lie about?

Now it's New Zealand. Most of us do not know who the Prime Minister of New Zealand is, but, if we were running for office and decided to talk about the country, we'd probably find out before speaking. And how many of us would make up a story so stupid as hers about Sir Edmund Hillary?

We're Still #1

That's in terms of the number of people in jail. That's according to this year's study by the International Center for Prison Studies. We have 751 people locked away for every 100,000 people; the world average is 125. Only Russia with 627 is close.

It's only been in the past 30 years that we have turned in such a stellar performance. Our rate in 1975 was 110. Another change is in the number of people in jail for drugs; in 1980 there were about 40,000; today there are - sit down - 500,000. How much does this add to the cost of our war - it's always a war - on drugs.

One reason why we have so many people in jail is the length of our sentences, which are two - three times as long as those of other countries.

Advocates of keeping these people in jail point to a lower crime rate. But Canada and the US have had about the same crime rate for years even though the rate of imprisonment in Canada has stayed the same while ours has skyrocketed.

The Truth Shall Set You Free

Who do you believe? Jimmy Carter or Condoleezza Rice? Carter says no one told him not to talk with Hamas. Rice claims an Assistant Secretary of State did tell Carter not to go to the Middle East and not to meet with Hamas.

Who do you believe? Patty Murray or the Veterans Administration? Senator Murray claims that the 12,000 troops attempt suicide each year. the VA says 800. This case is a lot clearer than the Carter-Rice one as Murray has a VA e-mail supporting her assertion.

Scientific Freedom?

I've written previously about the poor job the EPA seems to be doing in fulfilling its job of protecting us from nasty things that might be let loose in the environment. There have been stories in the press about this administration's attempts to influence EPA decisions. Well, the Union of Concerned Scientists has released a study that supports these stories.

A year ago the Union distributed a survey to 5,500 EPA scientists; the response rate was 29% which I'd say is quite good. Some of the results:

• 60% of the scientists had at least one instance of political interference in the past five years
• 43% said that interference has been worse in the past five years than in the previous five years
• 49% felt that there were cases where political appointees involved themselves in scientific decisions
• 42% claimed to know of cases where commercial interests were able to get the EPA to reverse or withdraw scientific conclusions

There are a number of interesting case studies throughout the report which demonstrate the failure of those in charge of the EPA to exercise their duties.

What would Professor Sherburne say?

Sherburne was the Accounting Professor who explained that world to me in the last century. I think that he would be astounded to learn that the accounting profession has sanctioned a practice whereby management has the ability to not only assign its own value to a security but can also keep an increase or decrease in a security's value off the income statement and have such activity affect only the balance sheet.

Such a technique enabled Citibank to hide $2.3 billion in writedowns from appearing on its income statement; Merrill Lynch hid $3.1 billion. The companies in the S&P 500 have hid $80 billion in such losses on their balance sheets through this technique.

The game involves classifying a security as being available for sale, rather than being owned for the long haul or being actively traded. Activity surrounding such securities - those available for sale - do not have to be recorded on the income statement, it can go directly to the balance sheet as "other comprehensive income".

No wonder why the financial world is in trouble.

Does it violate your privacy?

Does software that examines your contact list almost no matter where it is or how many you have violate your privacy when it goes on to check how often you mail certain people, whether you have appointments with or telephone certain people? Apparently, some companies, many of which are law firms, don't think it does as they use such software to try to get business with the 'certain people' you know.

While the programs do not scan the content of e-mails - or so they say - it does seem that they are invading one's privacy.

It's coming

This was taken at the Arnold Arboretum in May 2006.

Literary Digest Poll Redux?

A friend theorizes that the current polling is missing those with cell phones and without land lines, i.e., many young people. If he is right, will we have a repeat of the 1936 poll by the Literary Digest Magazine which, based on a survey of owners of cars and telephones, predicted that Landon would defeat Roosevelt?

Hillary's Demise?

Tomorrow I may regret writing this, but I have the sense that Hillary will not win Pennsylvania. Definitely she will not win it by as big a margin as she started with.

I think that there is a feeling about that Hillary is from the past and the country is in such bad shape we can't afford to stay as we are. Just about all of her slams against Obama seem to be having little effect with real people as opposed to the pundits. Obama is still raising more money. Superdelegates are moving in his direction.

There was an interesting article by McClatchy Newspapers about the number of Pennsylvania voters that switched parties. 178,000 have done so and 92% have gone from Republican to Democrat. That's about 4% of the total voters and these people are very likely to vote. I don't think they will be voting for Hillary.

Dollars Up, Threats Down

Lawrence Korb has argued that the money we spent on missile defense is largely wasted. Now Joseph Cirincione has some numbers supporting that position. The number of long-range missiles held by Russia and China has decreased 71% in the past twenty years. The number of medium-range missiles has gone down even more, 80%. And short-range missiles are largely Scud types, which were never very reliable in their heyday.

Enough Depressing News

The View from the East

Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of the School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, thinks the West has a major problem: it cannot see that the world has entered a new era. In his view, as expressed in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, we assume that we are the source of the answers to the problems of the world when, in fact, we are a major source of the problems. I think he’s correct in his assessment that we have failed to acknowledge that we are living in a changed world, a world in which the West has some very serious competition.

Mahbubani riffs on four areas where the West, in his judgment, has screwed up: the Middle East, nuclear non-proliferation, trade liberalization and global warming.

Of course, Iraq is at the top of the list when he speaks of the Middle East. But he discusses it in terms of its impact on international law. Since we did not have UN sanction to attack Iraq, how can we go ballistic over the failure to follow UN principles by Iran and North Korea? No mention of the Middle East can exclude Israel; here Mahbubani lists a few of the opportunities we, the U.S., have failed to pursue.

Israel also figures in the discussion of the nuclear non-proliferation treaties. Again, in applying the idea that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, Mahbubani asks why Israel has not been sanctioned for having nuclear weapons. And why have we looked the other way with regards to India and Pakistan going nuclear? One aspect of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty called for the U.S. and Russia to substantially reduce their nuclear arsenal. How much has taken place?

Global free trade has been fine when the West was the leader and had little competition. Now Mahbubani feels that the West is getting chicken as the competition has increased significantly and cites the difficulties surrounding the Doha Round as indicative of the problems.

As for global warming, Mahbubani is clear. The West is responsible for most of the greenhouse gases emitted over the past centuries. It is still the biggest emitter. It should pay most of the cost of combating global warming.

Admittedly, some of Mahbubani’s claims are tenuous. But his fundamental insight that we need to look in the mirror is critical to our future success and that of the world.

Three Gorges Landslide

There has been another landslide connected to the Three Gorges Dam. This time no one has died but another village is no longer.

It's all marketing and PR

The lengthy article, "Courting Ex-Officers Tied To Military Contractors", by David Barstow in today's NY Times shouldn't surprise us at this point in time. It is simply one more instance of man's greed and an administration's attempt to manipulate us.

The greed is manifested by the ex-military experts who offer "experienced" analysis of the Iraq War on TV and other arms of the media. Most of these people spend the other part of their life trying to convince the Pentagon to give their companies contracts. And there are rather a few companies that employ these experts, the Times estimates over 150 companies. Yet, these experts, by and large, have not disclosed these ties to the network executives, forget about disclosing these ties on the air.

While this administration has had a hard time doing most things right, they have mounted a rather sophisticated effort to coach the experts and track the results of the experts' analyses. The experts have been treated to lunch with Rumsfeld and his court, been flown (at our expense) to Guantanamo, Iraq and other places and been showered with talking points.

The article is filled with numerous instances that will make your blood boil. At the start of this post is a photo of one of the meetings with Rumsfeld.

Step Two - Planning

After Sept. 11, we all recognized that we had a problem with terrorism. Recognizing you have a problem is the first step to resolving the problem. The next step is a plan to do so. Well, when it comes to planning to resolve the problem presented by the wild areas of Pakistan that border Afghanistan and that were home to Al Qaeda, we have yet to do much other than issue statements, give money away and create ineffectual organizations.

In 2003 the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism directed that a comprehensive plan be developed to root out the terrorists in Pakistan's mountains. The 9/11 Commission called for a plan. Congress passed a law mandating such a plan. The National Counterterrorism Center was established in 2004 to develop plans to combat terrorism. The results to date: nada, according to the General Accountability Office (GAO).

We've given a good deal of money ($10.5 billion) to Pakistan but that's about all. Congress doesn't seem eager to enforce their mandate. The Department of State says such a plan exists although they did not give it to GAO. The Defense Department doesn't know of any plan. The National Security Council did not deem the matter worthy of comment.

I think he's right

Bob Herbert is convinced that the Democrats will lose to McCain unless they smarten up. It's amazing that they could blow it when things all over are so crappy. And they'll blow it to someone who will very likely repeat the same mistakes as Bush. The longer this campaign goes on, the more certain I become that our next president will be The Panderer.

Colbert King in the Washington Post has discovered some "political laws" that Clinton and McCain seem to be following:

• The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
• Resort to McCarthyism.
• Getting too big for your britches can be costly.

King also reports that Rush Limbaugh was urging voters in Ohio and Texas to vote for Clinton and husband Bill appeared on the Limbaugh show recently (albeit there was a guest host).

How many would watch?

I guess none of the presidential candidates believe that enough people would watch Science Debate2008 as none of them elected to participate in the debate scheduled for today in Philadelphia. Of course, they are all concerned with our declining predominance in science and technology and all realize the importance of scientific innovation to the future of this country and they've all spoken out about the low scores our students receive in international science tests and.....

Major War, Major Debacle

That's the opinion of Joseph Collins, a former Pentagon official, in a report, "Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and its Aftermath", published by the National Defense University, an affiliate of the Pentagon in some strange way. Although Collins is one those who believes we "must win", he is realistic enough to recognize that "it now looks like a can't win" situation. In his words, "the war in Iraq is a classic case of failure to adopt and adapt prudent courses of action that balances ends, ways and means".

He blames faulty assumptions, poor planning and an inability to create a secure situation for the failures. To rectify all the problems will mean major changes in the way we work, including changes in the executive and legislative branches.

The basic assumption was that "the war would be difficult, the peace relatively easy, and the occupation short and inexpensive". Needless to say, things didn't work out quite that way.

Bremer is not treated well and you don't have to guess why. A couple of new screw-ups, at least to me, attributed to Bremer: his wish to remove Khalilzad, an American Muslim, as a Presidential envoy and his cancellation of a planned meeting of Iraqi leaders in May 2003. But Bremer is not the only American faulted; Collins feels that the staff of the CPA was just not up to the task.

Nor do our intelligence efforts go unscathed with regards to the WMD issue, but also with regard to the Iraq infrastructure.

Another surprise is the report of an Army study that was available in December 2001. The study's conclusion:

Iraq presents far from ideal conditions for achieving strategic goals. Saddam Hussein is the culmination of a violent political culture that is rooted in a tortured history. Ethnic, tribal, and religious schisms could produce civil war or fracture the state after Saddam is deposed. The Iraqi Army may be useful as a symbol of national unity, but it will take extensive reeducation and reorganization to operate in a more democratic state. Years of sanctions have debilitated the economy and created a society dependent on the UN Oil for Food Program. Rebuilding Iraq will require a considerable commitment of American resources, but the longer U.S. presence is maintained, the more likely violent resistance will develop.

His concluding words are from Churchill:

Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders,untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations—all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think that he
also had a chance.

You really should read the report.

Are 21st century wars different?

Rand Corp. reports that almost 20% of the people who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan suffer from PTSD or depression. That seems like a very high number to me. Could it have been that high in the 'good' war, WWII? Is this high rate of problems a function of a volunteer army?

Also interesting is that half of those who claim to be affected do not report the problem for a number of reasons.

Change is in the air

At least on Martha's Vineyard. Both West Tisbury and Tisbury saw incumbent Selectmen defeated. In both cases the winner was a wash-ashore and the incumbent was a native or very close to a native. And Edgartown saw the closest battle for Selectman in many a year; the incumbent won but it was a lot closer than most people expected.

It's been three months....

...since my last posting based on the work of Lawrence Korb, a deputy secretary of defense under Reagan. He spoke before the House Committee on Armed Services today about the state of our armed services. Korb doesn't think that the state is very good. Regular troops and the Guard and Reserves are over-worked. Mercenaries are now performing combat tasks for us.

What has been forgotten is that the volunteer Army was not intended to fight a long war. The only way a long war can be fought is with a draft, but Korb believes a better course for now is a planned, withdrawal over 10 to 12 months.

Korb repeats the advice he has given elsewhere:

• We need more troops engaged in peacekeeping and counter-insurgency affairs
• We need fewer Cold War era weapons systems
• We need to really open the military to all of our people - gay and women.

As usual, much food for thought.

They all succumb

Here's Obama speaking of Carter's visit to Hamas:

"We must not negotiate with a terrorist group intent on Israel's destruction," Obama said. "We should only sit down with Hamas if they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist, and abide by past agreements."

Wasn't Obama going to meet with Ahmedinejad even if he renounced nothing? But now Obama wants the Jewish vote so, like McCain and Hillary, he'll say and do anything to get a few more votes.

Back to the Dark Ages?

Haiti, Egypt, Cameroon, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia have all had food riots recently. Pakistan and Thailand have sent troops to protect fields and food warehouses. Food banks and other organizations that give food to the hungry are a growth industry here. The number of people who are on food stamps has never been higher. Global food prices have increased 83% in three years. Increased food prices are now a topic of daily conversation in the U.S.

There are many reasons for this difficult situation - increasing wealth of developing countries has meant a growing demand for meat, which, in turn, means more grain is needed; drought in Australia and China; high transportation costs; the growing production of biofuels.

Part of the problem could be resolved rather simply (at least in theory) - encourage and subsidize local, small farms plus take better care of the land. That's one view as espoused by the World Bank, the UN and a host of other organizations. But, a lot more can be done as described in this report from the Center for American Progress.

Failure to act will bring us back to the dark ages.

Exercising true leadership

Congressman Paul Broun believes firmly that there should not be a comma before the phrase "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance. His belief is so strong that he has taken time on the House floor to express his view.

Parallels

I wonder who Garry Wills favors in the presidential contest. In the current NY Review of Books he compares Obama with Lincoln. Both are relatively inexperienced, young politicians from Illinois. Both are competing against a better known New York Senator. Both opposed an initially popular war. Both are alleged to be connected to an unpatriotic, violent radical group. Both decided to make a major speech about race.

A Real Downer

I’m referring to Steven Simon’s analysis of our situation in Iraq. It appears in the upcoming issue of Foreign Affairs. After describing a reasonable multi-lateral approach to the quagmire that is Iraq today, he concludes by describing his approach as “risky and possible futile”. But, you should read it anyway as it provides an incisive analysis as to why the surge is bad for us and bad for Iraq’s future. A warning – Mr. Simon is an astute analyst but a writer who loves very long paragraphs, which make on-line reading difficult for us old people.

Simon concedes that the surge has brought down the number of casualties, at least thus far. The cost of doing so has made it much, much more difficult to bring long term stability to Iraq because it has encouraged tribalism, condoned the rule of war lords and accepted ethnic cleansing.

We really know very little about Iraq’s history. Simon demonstrates that many attempts have been made to bring the tribes in Iraq into the fold; few have succeeded in the long run. The Ottomans were able to force the tribes into submission, but, after WWI, Britain needed to strengthen the tribes against urban forces. The Baath party initially opposed the tribes, but eventually found that they needed them. This inability to bring the tribes under the control of the state has led to dysfunctional governments in places like Yemen and Pakistan. Simon feels that the surge is making the tribes more powerful and dampening the possibilities for a stable Iraq.

Empowering the tribes has also meant that some of the sheiks are able to ‘earn their living’ through crime, which hardly leads to a feeling of security that is necessary for a stable Iraq.

Paying off the Sunnis to fight al Qaeda may be seen by the Sunnis as a step not toward reconciliation but toward once more being in power, something that the Shiites oppose. The attitude of many Sunnis is summed up in this comment, “The Sunnis were always the leaders of the country. Is it reasonable that they are turned into service workers and garbage collectors?” Supporting the Sunnis will likely leave some of them in charge of parts of the country. How willing will they be to be subservient to Baghdad?

Simon does advocate a withdrawal over a two-year period under after a multi-lateral agreement with a range of players – neighbors, UN, allies. But, as I said above, he is not sanguine about the possibilities.

Maybe Global Warming Will Bring Some Good

It’s already brought a farming boom to Greenland and, as Scott Borgerson writes in Foreign Affairs, it will very likely bring some good to the Arctic.

Yes, the Arctic icecap is melting; it’s half the size of fifty years ago. But if the melting continues we will see the opening of the Northwest Passage that was a footnote in the history books I read as a child. And, it’s been estimated that the Arctic coastline and sea has twice the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Plus it will give access to immense freshwater reserves.

The new sea lanes should prompt investment in shipping companies or those that outfit ships as the distance between Rotterdam and Yokohama will shrink from 11,200 nautical miles to 6,500 and the Northwest Passage will result in ships going from Seattle to Rotterdam to travel 2,000 fewer nautical miles. Both these trips now involve going through the Suez or Panama Canal, which do not provide free passage. The new lanes should cut the costs of trips 20% - 40% as well as cut the transport time significantly.

But, as is true with many of the issues confronting this country, we’re doing very little about addressing this issue, while other countries – Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark – are taking steps to get a legal stake in the area. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is a help in staking out territories but our Senate has yet to approve it although it has been urged to do so by a variety of people – Navy, Coast Guard, environmental groups, private companies. Why the Navy is pursuing this is a bit of a question as, despite our navy being as large as that of the next seventeen navies combined, we have a total of one icebreaker, which is still needed in the Arctic. Russia has eighteen and China, which has no connection with either pole, has an icebreaker.

The last time we issued an executive statement on the Arctic was in 1994, when it was still a land of hard ice. Now, we’re looking at a place with a lot of potential for good and evil for both our economy and our security and very few of our leaders are even talking about the issues. Yet, we have to act, we have to negotiate with other claimants, and, together, we have to develop a set of rules that all will follow for the good of the world.

Speaking 21st Century Style

Dick Cavett has a wonderful piece in the NY Times about the language and speaking styles of General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker. I urge you to read it. Here is how Cavett concludes the article:

It’s like listening to someone speaking a language you only partly know. And who’s being paid by the syllable. You miss a lot. I guess a guy bearing up under such a chestload of hardware — and pretty ribbons in a variety of decorator colors — can’t be expected to speak like ordinary mortals, for example you and me. He should try once saying — instead of “ongoing process of high level engagements” — maybe something in colloquial English? Like: “fights” or “meetings” (or whatever the hell it’s supposed to mean).

I find it painful to watch this team of two straight men, straining on the potty of language. Only to deliver such . . . what? Such knobbed and lumpy artifacts of superfluous verbiage? (Sorry, now I’m doing it…)

But I must hand it to his generalship. He did say something quite clearly and admirably and I am grateful for his frankness. He told us that our gains are largely imaginary: that our alleged “progress” is “fragile and reversible.” (Quite an accomplishment in our sixth year of war.) This provides, of course, a bit of pre-emptive covering of the general’s hindquarters next time that, true to Murphy’s Law, things turn sour again.

Back to poor Crocker. His brows are knitted. And he has a perpetually alarmed expression, as if, perhaps, he feels something crawling up his leg.

Could it be he is being overtaken by the thought that an honorable career has been besmirched by his obediently doing the dirty work of the tinpot Genghis Khan of Crawford, Texas? The one whose foolish military misadventure seems to increasingly resemble that of Gen. George Armstrong Custer at Little Bighorn?

Not an apt comparison, I admit.

Custer sent only 258 soldiers to their deaths.

God is on their side

Foreign Policy lists a few of the more dangerous religious leaders in the world. Herewith some of the thoughts of these leaders:

• Quote: “If we searched the entire world for a person more cowardly, despicable, weak, and feeble in psyche, mind, ideology, and religion, we would not find anyone like the Jew. Notice I do not say the Israeli.” Hassan Nasrallah, Shiite Muslim

• Quote: “[The spirits] speak to me. They load through me. They will tell us what is going to happen. They say ‘You, Mr. Joseph, tell your people that the enemy is planning to come and attack.’ They will come like dreaming; they will tell us everything.” Joseph Kony, Christian

• Quote: “I want Muslim votes, too. But wash them in Gangajal [Ganges water] first.” Yogi Adityanath , Hindu

• Quote: “Peace negotiations simply made the LTTE [Tamil Tigers] stronger. We mustn’t talk to them; we can crush the LTTE. It is like surgery.” Athuraliye Rathana, Theravada Buddhist

• Quote: “A thousand non-Jewish lives are not worth a Jew’s fingernail.” Dov Lior , Hasidic Jew

They come from all over. But they are united in hate.

Just another sleepy Saturday in Iraq

Iraq Today reports 63 more people were killed today in 17 'incidents'. Afghanistan was quieter: only three incidents and 28 killings.

Another Dan Wasserman Cartoon

From today's Boston Globe

Even golf?

Golf is becoming more international. Tournaments with leading golfers are being held in India and the Middle East. Next year the prize in the Dubai World Championship will be $10,000,000, the largest ever. Nine years ago 33 of the top 50 golfers were Americans; today 16 are.

Now, I'm not saying anything should be done about this beyond noting that it is another area where American preeminence has declined. It does not really matter whether all or none of the best golfers in the world are American. However, there are areas - e.g., education, innovation, health care - where a decline in our preeminence really does matter. As a nation, we have yet to even acknowledge that we have problems in areas that are vital to our and our children's quality of life. And the idea of devising solutions for these problems is far from most people's minds.

Same old story

The NY Times published their annual report on executive pay last Sunday and it's still a sad tale. The huge companies - sales of at least $6.5 billion - still love their CEOs. Compensation was up 5% last year, bonus payments were up. Not by much, it's true, but was 2007 a great year for many companies?

Some fun examples:

• Oil prices were way up last year. Did Occidental Petroleum have anything to do with this? Apparently, the company board must have thought the CEO did as they bumped his pay by 21% to a measly $33,600,000.
• Washington Mutual believed that all the write-offs they took last year were not part of the performance on which the CEO's bonus should be based.
• We all know how well the home building business has been. The CEO of KB Homes reeally worked hard to merit a $6,000,000 bonus.
• But the huge financial services went many steps further. The top guys in the ten largest financial services firms took home $320,000,000 although they lost $55 billion thus far and their stockholders are down $200 billion. Hey, it's only money.
• Taxes are for you and I to pay. Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide made only $100,000,000 in 2006. Shouldn't the company pay the taxes stemming from his wife's use of the company plane?

It's getting harder and harder to define non-profit

I've written a number of posts about non-profit companies that are doing very well by their executives, thank you. Last Friday's Wall Street Journal picks up on this theme with regard to hospitals. 77% of non-profit hospitals but only 61% of for-profit hospitals show net income and there is little distinction between the compensation of the executives at either type of organization.

The non-profits have paid their CEOs in the multi-millions, forgiven loans to executives, bought country club memberships, paid for family travel. You know the story - our CEO is so good that we could not exist without him or her.

In the meantime, how many of these non-profit hospitals are providing a "community benefit" commensurate with the tax breaks they receive? One hospital system counts the salaries it pays to its employees as a community benefit, which, I suppose, is one way to define it. Another spent $10,000,000 on advertising how great it is. The non-profits seem to serve those who have insurance, the for-profits those with no insurance or dependent on Medicaid.

How well would these non-profits fare if we were not subsidizing them?

Another Sign of Our Changing World

Twenty and thirty years ago most of the petroleum engineers were trained in U.S. and European universities. That is no longer the case. Oil-rich countries are now producing their own engineers; this year about twice as many engineers will come from oil-rich countries as will come from "the West". Only eight years ago the ratio was 1.5 - 1, rather than the 2 - 1 of today.

Many of the jobs in the oil industry are also moving overseas. More than half of Chevron's employees now come from outside the U.S.; ten years ago only a third did.

It's a competitive world out there.

Why can't they just stay home?

That's probably what many Chinese leaders are asking about the protests by Tibetans and their supporters both inside and outside China. The Olympic torch parades have certainly focused the world's attention on China in a negative way. And the monks within China seem bent on disrupting any marketing to the foreign press done by the Chinese authorities.

Town Meeting 2008

The Vineyard election season is nearing an end. West Tisbury plays its final game tomorrow – the Town election. There are eighteen openings, but only two contests, which, I think, is a sad commentary on the democratic process on this Island in the 21^st century.

The Election

The contests are for Selectman and Library Trustee. Richard Knabel, Vice Chair of the Finance Committee, is trying to unseat Glenn Hearn, the incumbent Selectman. It seems to be a close race. Hearn is pushing the idea that the Town is in good shape and he will continue to keep it there. Knabel argues that more planning and leadership is needed. We’ll know what the voters think tomorrow.

There are two openings for Library Trustee and four candidates. Cynthia Riggs, who has sought office several times, is running as a team with Greg Orcutt, a political newcomer, to unseat Hermine Merel-Smith, long time Library Board Chair, and Linda Hearn, wife of Glenn and current trustee. My sense if that Orcutt and Hearn will win.

The Meeting

This year Town Meeting lasted two nights; this was only the second time this has happened in the past eighteen years. Most meetings have been one night affairs. There were fewer in attendance this year, about 220 vs. 300+ last year. Attendance at the second night was even lower, about 125. Again, the low attendance is not what makes democracy great.

There were two articles attempting to increase attendance and/or participation. Article 34 attempted to lower the number of voters needed to request a written ballot from a majority to twenty. The theory here was that some people don’t come or refuse to stand and be counted because they don’t want to ruffle the feathers of a relative or friend. The second article proposed having next year’s meeting on a Saturday morning, so that older people who tend to stay home at night and young people who work would be able to attend. Both articles failed, the latter one abysmally.

The Finance Committee did better this year than last in that all but one of its recommendations were followed. It lost a close vote on the adoption of a new wage scale for Town employees.

The Paths by the Roads Committee, which has built a couple of paths thus far, lost big time. It was refused funds to start on its next path. And, strangely, was also refused a tiny amount of planning money. I say “strangely” because the refusal to fund the next path was based on the poor planning of the committee. Why the Town refused to give the committee the money to do a better planning job is a mystery to me.

The big issue at the meeting was the renovation of Town Hall. This project has been in the works for at least eleven years. The Town has rejected a couple of proposals. But, finally, the latest – and most thoroughly developed – proposal was accepted even though a new and less expensive Town Hall could have been built. The Town likes the old building in its current location. C’est la vie.

Considerable money was spent on affordable housing projects. Half of the money came from the state, so it’s a good financial deal for the Town.

The final article caused the most stir tonight. It has become a perennial – “Shall the Town of West Tisbury withdraw from the Up-Island Regional School District?” This year, again, the Town answered “No”.

I must say that I am glad the West Tisbury season will be over in a matter of hours. This year’s game went into extra innings.

What would Jesus say?

Scientists think that they may have discovered another solar system, or at least a system with a 'sun' and some planets circling it. A new technique, microlensing, is being used and seems to hold promise of discovering many solar systems.

A history lesson

James Carroll tries to look at the world through Russian eyes.

It's not looking that well

This is from today's Boston Globe, It's tiny, I know, but you can still get the sense that things seems to be getting worse.

What are the odds?

Husband #1 committed suicide. He had agreed to donate his heart to someone in need. The recipient of the heart eventually married the wife of the donor. This past weekend Husband #2 committed suicide.

Will there be a Husband #3.

The Race for Space

China is definitely a major contender according to Kevin Pollpeter in a fascinating Strategic Studies paper. They are not yet as advanced as we and other space veterans are but they are getting there.

In the past five years they have had two manned space missions, shot down a satellite and launched a moon orbiter. The number of space launches went from 1 in 2001 to 10 in 2004. They are using their familiar strategy of being the lowest cost producer to advance their position in the world of commercial space travel. Pollpeter describes how the space program is an integral part of China's move to become a dominant power in the world.

What Will Petraeus and Crocker Say Next Week?

One of the purposes - if not the main purpose - of the surge was to give the Maliki government time to be able to stand up and control the country. It does not seem as though that has happened in Basra and other places as most observers feel that the Mahdi Army won; clearly Maliki is not a military planner or executor.

It is looking like the civil war is not only a three-ring circus - Shia, Sunni, Kurd -, but within the Shia there are major disagreements And it looks as though Iran is playing all sides of the Shia street and exerting more and more control.

For an up-to-the-minute listing of the deaths and injuries that went on today in Iraq, go to Iraq Today. I counted 36 incidents today.

Who said "we'll stand down as the Iraqis stand up"? This certainly is looking more and more unlikely.

A Step in the Right Direction

The federal Department of Education has decided that all states should calculate drop-out rates in the same way. They haven't specified the method yet, but clearly this is a step towards being able to really compare states performance. As we know, it is impossible now to do so.

What do you expect? It's been two months.

UBS now says it is writing off $19 billion due to the current debacle. On January 30 it was $14 billion. In December it was $10 billion. It claims that its exposure to the subprime market is down from $27.6 billion on December 31 to $15 billion today. But, guess what? Its exposure to auction-rate certificates has almost doubled from $5.9 to $11 billion.

What is reality?

It Just Gets Worse

I'm talking about the overruns in building weapons. The GAO has just published an assessment of 72 major weapons programs. None of them have been developed using best practices. And the numbers just keep getting bigger. In Fy2000 DOD had committed $790 billion to weapons programs; in FY2007 the number was $1.6 trillion, jst about double in seven years. Inflation hasn't been that bad, has it?

Estimates have deteriorated as well. In FY2000 the total acquisition cost was up 6% from first estimates; in FY2007 it was off by 26%. The average delay in delivery went from 16 months to 21 months.

A good part of the problem is the military's desires for the latest technologies, whether they are proven or not. But, one cannot overlook what appears to be gross mismanagement.

Oh, well. It's only taxpayers' money.