A Real Downer

I’m referring to Steven Simon’s analysis of our situation in Iraq. It appears in the upcoming issue of Foreign Affairs. After describing a reasonable multi-lateral approach to the quagmire that is Iraq today, he concludes by describing his approach as “risky and possible futile”. But, you should read it anyway as it provides an incisive analysis as to why the surge is bad for us and bad for Iraq’s future. A warning – Mr. Simon is an astute analyst but a writer who loves very long paragraphs, which make on-line reading difficult for us old people.

Simon concedes that the surge has brought down the number of casualties, at least thus far. The cost of doing so has made it much, much more difficult to bring long term stability to Iraq because it has encouraged tribalism, condoned the rule of war lords and accepted ethnic cleansing.

We really know very little about Iraq’s history. Simon demonstrates that many attempts have been made to bring the tribes in Iraq into the fold; few have succeeded in the long run. The Ottomans were able to force the tribes into submission, but, after WWI, Britain needed to strengthen the tribes against urban forces. The Baath party initially opposed the tribes, but eventually found that they needed them. This inability to bring the tribes under the control of the state has led to dysfunctional governments in places like Yemen and Pakistan. Simon feels that the surge is making the tribes more powerful and dampening the possibilities for a stable Iraq.

Empowering the tribes has also meant that some of the sheiks are able to ‘earn their living’ through crime, which hardly leads to a feeling of security that is necessary for a stable Iraq.

Paying off the Sunnis to fight al Qaeda may be seen by the Sunnis as a step not toward reconciliation but toward once more being in power, something that the Shiites oppose. The attitude of many Sunnis is summed up in this comment, “The Sunnis were always the leaders of the country. Is it reasonable that they are turned into service workers and garbage collectors?” Supporting the Sunnis will likely leave some of them in charge of parts of the country. How willing will they be to be subservient to Baghdad?

Simon does advocate a withdrawal over a two-year period under after a multi-lateral agreement with a range of players – neighbors, UN, allies. But, as I said above, he is not sanguine about the possibilities.