Major War, Major Debacle

That's the opinion of Joseph Collins, a former Pentagon official, in a report, "Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and its Aftermath", published by the National Defense University, an affiliate of the Pentagon in some strange way. Although Collins is one those who believes we "must win", he is realistic enough to recognize that "it now looks like a can't win" situation. In his words, "the war in Iraq is a classic case of failure to adopt and adapt prudent courses of action that balances ends, ways and means".

He blames faulty assumptions, poor planning and an inability to create a secure situation for the failures. To rectify all the problems will mean major changes in the way we work, including changes in the executive and legislative branches.

The basic assumption was that "the war would be difficult, the peace relatively easy, and the occupation short and inexpensive". Needless to say, things didn't work out quite that way.

Bremer is not treated well and you don't have to guess why. A couple of new screw-ups, at least to me, attributed to Bremer: his wish to remove Khalilzad, an American Muslim, as a Presidential envoy and his cancellation of a planned meeting of Iraqi leaders in May 2003. But Bremer is not the only American faulted; Collins feels that the staff of the CPA was just not up to the task.

Nor do our intelligence efforts go unscathed with regards to the WMD issue, but also with regard to the Iraq infrastructure.

Another surprise is the report of an Army study that was available in December 2001. The study's conclusion:

Iraq presents far from ideal conditions for achieving strategic goals. Saddam Hussein is the culmination of a violent political culture that is rooted in a tortured history. Ethnic, tribal, and religious schisms could produce civil war or fracture the state after Saddam is deposed. The Iraqi Army may be useful as a symbol of national unity, but it will take extensive reeducation and reorganization to operate in a more democratic state. Years of sanctions have debilitated the economy and created a society dependent on the UN Oil for Food Program. Rebuilding Iraq will require a considerable commitment of American resources, but the longer U.S. presence is maintained, the more likely violent resistance will develop.

His concluding words are from Churchill:

Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders,untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations—all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think that he
also had a chance.

You really should read the report.