China is definitely a major contender according to Kevin Pollpeter in a fascinating Strategic Studies paper. They are not yet as advanced as we and other space veterans are but they are getting there.
In the past five years they have had two manned space missions, shot down a satellite and launched a moon orbiter. The number of space launches went from 1 in 2001 to 10 in 2004. They are using their familiar strategy of being the lowest cost producer to advance their position in the world of commercial space travel. Pollpeter describes how the space program is an integral part of China's move to become a dominant power in the world.
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