Another Comment About The Surge

Like many others, Jon Lindsay of MIT fears that we are overlooking other factors besides the surge which have led to reduced violence in Iraq. Fundamentally, the surge has not led to the reconciliation that was its aim. Here are some of the situations that will likely cause Iraq to blow up at some point.

There is significant ongoing violence against civilians despite absolute reductions in its intensity. Political deadlock continues on critical issues like oil revenue distribution, the status of Kirkuk, progress toward provincial elections, and sectarian reconciliation. As reporter Michael Ware noted, “deaths are down because it’s much harder to kill each other until the Americans withdraw and the real battle begins.” Festering sectarian tensions are dramatized by the Shia-dominated government’s hostility towards Sunni Sons of Iraq and Awakening groups; while such groups were instrumental in containing violence before, they can also be a potent force to reignite it if they continue to feel disenfranchised. The release of former insurgents from detention facilities is another wild card for stability.